Armstrong warns all his rivals!

[thehog]

Nah. When he says he might do a race he waits for the the fin whack then commits. Money talks.

Well, it's good he's warning his rivals, but ignore all those announcements about his race schedule because he's taking it all back. The head to head against Contador in Catalunya? No clue. The individual classics? Dunno. Dauphine? Shoulder shrug. Continue racing in 2011? There's definitely a 50/50 chance.



Paris-Nice starts on March 7, so he definitely won't take on Contador there.

.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/armstrong-considers-backing-up-farrar-at-worlds







Nah. When he says he might do a race he waits for the the fin whack then commits. Money talks


Nah. When he says he might do a race he waits for the the fin whack then commits. Money talks


It's useless to even listen to anything he says, as he keeps taking it back or contradicting himself.

 

[ravens]

Well, it's good he's warning his rivals, but ignore all those announcements about his race schedule because he's taking it all back. The head to head against Contador in Catalunya? No clue. The individual classics? Dunno. Dauphine? Shoulder shrug. Continue racing in 2011? There's definitely a 50/50 chance.



Paris-Nice starts on March 7, so he definitely won't take on Contador there.



http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/armstrong-considers-backing-up-farrar-at-worlds

It's useless to even listen to anything he says, as he keeps taking it back or contradicting himself.

It's all a fan dance. Maximum return, minimum effort. (btw, slightly ot, Saw a very slinky/sexy young girl at the store today wearing livestrong warmup pants. They'd look good crumpled on the floor next to my bed. But I digress.)

 

[Iker_Baqueiro]

Armstrong will be dropped hard in the mountains (TDF 2010). No matter what kind of new drug he uses.

 

[kurtinsc]

Armstrong will be dropped hard in the mountains (TDF 2010). No matter what kind of new drug he uses.

Maybe by Andy and Alberto... and perhaps Frank. Probably not anyone else.

Lance couldn't go with Contador last year. He simply was unable. On Verbier he tried... gassed himself... then got passed by others.

The rest of the race he didn't try... he marked other riders and proved to be capable of hanging or dropping everyone else on every mountain stage. But he did't attempt to go with AC or AS... because they were beyond his ability.

Frank seemed capable of riding with AC and AS at times... then at others he seemed weaker then Armstrong. Other then those three, I don't see anyone in the race distinguishing themselves as superior climbers to lance. He's in the same ballpark as the rest.


I don't think he can win. I do think he can manage a podium if things work out... a top 5 if some things don't work well. I don't see how based on the 2009 tour someone can say he'll be "dropped hard" next year... not unless you think everyone other then Contador and the Schlecks will be dropped hard as well.

 

[pmcg76]

Maybe by Andy and Alberto... and perhaps Frank. Probably not anyone else.

Lance couldn't go with Contador last year. He simply was unable. On Verbier he tried... gassed himself... then got passed by others.

The rest of the race he didn't try... he marked other riders and proved to be capable of hanging or dropping everyone else on every mountain stage. But he did't attempt to go with AC or AS... because they were beyond his ability.

Frank seemed capable of riding with AC and AS at times... then at others he seemed weaker then Armstrong. Other then those three, I don't see anyone in the race distinguishing themselves as superior climbers to lance. He's in the same ballpark as the rest.


I don't think he can win. I do think he can manage a podium if things work out... a top 5 if some things don't work well. I don't see how based on the 2009 tour someone can say he'll be "dropped hard" next year... not unless you think everyone other then Contador and the Schlecks will be dropped hard as well.

I think the main aim is to see Contador defeated, they simply cannot ride like Astana last year. There is no TTT to gain a springboard and then just ride along. They will need to try and drop Contador, Schleck in the mountains. I cannot see Lance doing that on his own so I think RadioShack will resort to trying to tactically out manouvre Contador but that means doing the same to Saxo Bank also. If they try to get Levi/Kloden in the lead, then they will have to sacrifice them or Lance will have to let them take over leadership. Its just hard to see them beating both Contador and Schleck. 3rd is possible again but I think a few other will have also improved from last season also.

 

[thehog]

I think the main aim is to see Contador defeated, they simply cannot ride like Astana last year. There is no TTT to gain a springboard and then just ride along. They will need to try and drop Contador, Schleck in the mountains. I cannot see Lance doing that on his own so I think RadioShack will resort to trying to tactically out manouvre Contador but that means doing the same to Saxo Bank also. If they try to get Levi/Kloden in the lead, then they will have to sacrifice them or Lance will have to let them take over leadership. Its just hard to see them beating both Contador and Schleck. 3rd is possible again but I think a few other will have also improved from last season also.

High cadence is the only answer.

 

[Publicus]

Maybe by Andy and Alberto... and perhaps Frank. Probably not anyone else.

Lance couldn't go with Contador last year. He simply was unable. On Verbier he tried... gassed himself... then got passed by others.

The rest of the race he didn't try... he marked other riders and proved to be capable of hanging or dropping everyone else on every mountain stage. But he did't attempt to go with AC or AS... because they were beyond his ability.

Frank seemed capable of riding with AC and AS at times... then at others he seemed weaker then Armstrong. Other then those three, I don't see anyone in the race distinguishing themselves as superior climbers to lance. He's in the same ballpark as the rest.


I don't think he can win. I do think he can manage a podium if things work out... a top 5 if some things don't work well. I don't see how based on the 2009 tour someone can say he'll be "dropped hard" next year... not unless you think everyone other then Contador and the Schlecks will be dropped hard as well.

I think you've hit on one of the real differences for 2010--the absence of the TTT. Several contenders were placed in a difficult position as a result of the TTT of having to attack early, whereas Astana could play defense. Unless a similar outcome occurs after Stage 3, there will be no material differences coming into the first mountain stage (8 I believe), which means that Team Radio Shack, and therefore Lance, is going to have to race. I think there is an over-reliance on Lance and JB's part that they will gain time on AC on the cobbles and/or wind (first 3 stages). If that doesn't come to bear, I think psychologically, Lance will be broken.

But to get back to your question, I think AC and others have to actually force a high pace in the mountains to shed the pretenders--which is what I think Lance is at this point in his career. Basso should be much better than he was last year (which was quite good all things considered), Menchov is going to bypass the Giro and should be better, Gesink is going to be there, so is Nibali, Valverde, Sammy Sanchez as well, and let's not forget Wiggins and Vandevelde (don't know if Evans/Sastre will be players since they are riding the Giro). And that's before we get to Alberto, Andy and Frank. Lance is no longer the guy he was between 1999-2002. He's not even the guy he was in 2005. And that's not trying to knock him, that's just acknowledging the reality.

I don't think he's lost any weight relative to his weight at the Tour de France (they've been very careful to compare his weight to the same period last year, but looking at photos of him at the Tour and now, he's not materially different), and I don't expect him to climb significantly better next year. But I think the mountains will be significantly harder and at the end of the day, he won't be amongst the best. So I can definitely see him being dropped on multiple days, simply because when the race gets hot, he doesn't have the fire to respond. And unfortunately he's avoiding (IMO) that fact exposed until the TdF (though as I said before, I think the change in the Criterium d' Internationale well give us our first real glimpse of what he has in the way of climbing legs).

 

[ravens]

I think you've hit on one of the real differences for 2010--the absence of the TTT. Several contenders were placed in a difficult position as a result of the TTT of having to attack early, whereas Astana could play defense. Unless a similar outcome occurs after Stage 3, there will be no material differences coming into the first mountain stage (8 I believe), which means that Team Radio Shack, and therefore Lance, is going to have to race. I think there is an over-reliance on Lance and JB's part that they will gain time on AC on the cobbles and/or wind (first 3 stages). If that doesn't come to bear, I think psychologically, Lance will be broken.

But to get back to your question, I think AC and others have to actually force a high pace in the mountains to shed the pretenders--which is what I think Lance is at this point in his career. Basso should be much better than he was last year (which was quite good all things considered), Menchov is bypass the Giro and should be better, Gesink is going to be there, so is Nibali, Valverde, Sammy Sanchez as well. And that's before we get to Alberto, Andy and Frank. Lance is no longer the guy he was between 1999-2002. He's not even the guy he was in 2005. And that's not trying to knock him, that's just acknowledging the reality.

I don't think he's lost any weight relative to his weight at the Tour de France (they've been very careful to compare his weight to the same period last year, but looking at photos of him at the Tour and now, he's not materially different), and I don't expect him to climb significantly better next year. But I think the mountains will be significantly harder and at the end of the day, he won't be amongst the best.

I am so jonesing to see some high level racing. Your post has me going through withdrawl. We need a live cycling channel or streaming hd website available in the US. I don't even care at this point if I have to endure Phil Paul and Roll. Anything!

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

I am so jonesing to see some high level racing. Your post has me going through withdrawl. We need a live cycling channel or streaming hd website available in the US. I don't even care at this point if I have to endure Phil Paul and Roll. Anything!

Just go to cyclingfans.com before any race. They usually have a free live feed for most races.

 

[Bike Boy]

I think you've hit on one of the real differences for 2010--the absence of the TTT. Several contenders were placed in a difficult position as a result of the TTT of having to attack early, whereas Astana could play defense. Unless a similar outcome occurs after Stage 3, there will be no material differences coming into the first mountain stage (8 I believe), which means that Team Radio Shack, and therefore Lance, is going to have to race. I think there is an over-reliance on Lance and JB's part that they will gain time on AC on the cobbles and/or wind (first 3 stages). If that doesn't come to bear, I think psychologically, Lance will be broken.

But to get back to your question, I think AC and others have to actually force a high pace in the mountains to shed the pretenders--which is what I think Lance is at this point in his career. Basso should be much better than he was last year (which was quite good all things considered), Menchov is going to bypass the Giro and should be better, Gesink is going to be there, so is Nibali, Valverde, Sammy Sanchez as well, and let's not forget Wiggins and Vandevelde (don't know if Evans/Sastre will be players since they are riding the Giro). And that's before we get to Alberto, Andy and Frank. Lance is no longer the guy he was between 1999-2002. He's not even the guy he was in 2005. And that's not trying to knock him, that's just acknowledging the reality.

I don't think he's lost any weight relative to his weight at the Tour de France (they've been very careful to compare his weight to the same period last year, but looking at photos of him at the Tour and now, he's not materially different), and I don't expect him to climb significantly better next year. But I think the mountains will be significantly harder and at the end of the day, he won't be amongst the best. So I can definitely see him being dropped on multiple days, simply because when the race gets hot, he doesn't have the fire to respond. And unfortunately he's avoiding (IMO) that fact exposed until the TdF (though as I said before, I think the change in the Criterium d' Internationale well give us our first real glimpse of what he has in the way of climbing legs).

That's a lot of names you suggest can do better than Lance. In theory yes that's entirely possible, but one thing Lance still masters, despite of his age, is the ability to hang on and avoid accidents.

last year Leipheimer Gesink and Menchov all lost out to Lance. My point is that 3-5 riders in that group of subfavourites will run into obstacles (broken bones, tactical errors, absence of form etc.).
This rarely happens to Lance, so unless he breaks down on a mountain, I think top 5 is within reach.

 

[Publicus]

That's a lot of names you suggest can do better than Lance. In theory yes that's entirely possible, but one thing Lance still masters, despite of his age, is the ability to hang on and avoid accidents.

last year Leipheimer Gesink and Menchov all lost out to Lance. My point is that 3-5 riders in that group of subfavourites will run into obstacles (broken bones, tactical errors, absence of form etc.).
This rarely happens to Lance, so unless he breaks down on a mountain, I think top 5 is within reach.

I think that caveat (injury) applies to everyone. Lance may not have broken bones, but he may make tactical errors and certainly could lack the form. He's not immune from any of those shortcomings, nor is any other rider. So with that in mind, I don't see Lance as a top 5 climber in the mountains.

 

[Carboncrank]

I think that caveat (injury) applies to everyone. Lance may not have broken bones, but he may make tactical errors and certainly could lack the form. He's not immune from any of those shortcomings, nor is any other rider. So with that in mind, I don't see Lance as a top 5 climber in the mountains.

Other factors? maybe. But I don't know of any GCer's that make fewer tactical errors than Lance/Johann.

A good finish will be because of good tactics, not for the lack of them.

 

[ErmOkk]

I think we just have to wait until the ToC or so to find out how LA recaptured his old climbing abilities. I find it hard to write off a champion like him before the season is even started We all know that he probably won't win the Tdf with AC in the current peloton, but imo any spot below is reachable for sure.

 

[Publicus]

Other factors? maybe. But I don't know of any GCer's that make fewer tactical errors than Lance/Johann.

A good finish will be because of good tactics, not for the lack of them.

I also don't think you've seen them without the strongest rider on their squad, which helped those tactics mightly.

 

[Publicus]

I think we just have to wait until the ToC or so to find out how LA recaptured his old climbing abilities. I find it hard to write off a champion like him before the season is even started We all know that he probably won't win the Tdf with AC in the current peloton, but imo any spot below is reachable for sure.

I disagree. You can access videos of Armstrong from 1999-2005 on you tube right now. You can find links of his climbing at the 2009 Tour. You can see what transpired at TDU this year. It's all there to be seen . . . right now.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I think that caveat (injury) applies to everyone. Lance may not have broken bones, but he may make tactical errors and certainly could lack the form. He's not immune from any of those shortcomings, nor is any other rider. So with that in mind, I don't see Lance as a top 5 climber in the mountains.

Who do you consider a top 5 climber?

AC and AS obviously...

 

[Big GMaC]

Who do you consider a top 5 climber?

AC and AS obviously...

above Lance:

AC
AS
Sastre
Nibali
Pelizotti
FS
Basso

Maybe:

FS
Valverde
Evans

 

[Publicus]

Who do you consider a top 5 climber?

AC and AS obviously...

Out of the GC candidates projected to be at the Tour (2010): Basso, Valverde, Frank Schleck

I could easily swap Basso out for one of the young guns (Nibali or Gesink (but I'm not sold on his TT ability). Sammy Sanchez and Joaquim Rodriguez will be in the mix as well, but I'm not sold on their GC cred yet (TT skills).

 

[Publicus]

above Lance:

AC
AS
Sastre
Nibali
Pelizotti
FS
Basso

Maybe:

FS
Valverde
Evans

I'm expect Evans to beat Lance on the first stage of the Criterium International.

 

[Big GMaC]

above lance:

Ac
as
sastre
nibali
pelizotti
fs
basso
valverde
evans

maybe:
Gesink

fixed . . . . . .

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Out of the GC candidates projected to be at the Tour (2010): Basso, Valverde, Frank Schleck

I could easily swap Basso out for one of the young guns (Nibali or Gesink (but I'm not sold on his TT ability). Sammy Sanchez and Joaquim Rodriguez will be in the mix as well, but I'm not sold on their GC cred yet (TT skills).

That's fair, but I don't think either one of those guys has ability to ride away from Lance. AC and AS definately. Maybe Nibali, but the rest Lance can hang with.

After typing that I realized again just how nasty of a team Liquigas is bringing next year. Nibali might be one to look out for.

 

[ErmOkk]

I disagree. You can access videos of Armstrong from 1999-2005 on you tube right now. You can find links of his climbing at the 2009 Tour. You can see what transpired at TDU this year. It's all there to be seen . . . right now.

Hmm I don't really see how this years TDU makes LA look bad :s I think he never really was going to explode on one of the few hills they met, even when he was in topform. He's not like cadel evans who tried to break off AC in the dauphine last year, like he didn't know there was still a long Tdf waiting .

 

[Publicus]

That's fair, but I don't think either one of those guys has ability to ride away from Lance. AC and AS definately. Maybe Nibali, but the rest Lance can hang with.

After typing that I realized again just how nasty of a team Liquigas is bringing next year. Nibali might be one to look out for.

Well obviously I disagree. I seem to recall Frank Schleck, Wiggins and Nibali riding away from Lance at Verbier. Same again for Frank on Col de Romme/Colombier. I saw Basso doing extremely well at the Giro (not going to compare the two because one was riding for GC the other was getting base training in) considering he was out for two years.

I can't comment on Gesink or Valverde since they've not been in a recent race with Armstrong (though the fact that Armstrong couldn't/didn't make the selection on Willunga Road at the TDU and Valverde does give one an indication), but I'm confident that Valverde definitely could (I'll reserve opinion on that one).

And yes, Liquigas is going to be the business at the TdF. That's why I think this notion that Armstrong is going to be in a pitched battle with Alberto is glossing over the depth of this field. There will be racing happening in the mountains and I'm just not sold on Armstrong's ability to race (rather than mark wheels) in the mountains for multiple stages. He's going to miss having AC on his team this year more than he realizes.

 

[Publicus]

Hmm I don't really see how this years TDU makes LA look bad :s I think he never really was going to explode on one of the few hills they met, even when he was in topform. He's not like cadel evans who tried to break off AC in the dauphine last year, like he didn't know there was still a long Tdf waiting .

I didn't say it made him look bad. I said there is video available for you to see and compare and contrast his climbing form over the years. I did just prior to last year's Tour de France, but only with the 1999-2005 videos. You can look at his mechanics and how comfortable he looks on the bike. He's not going to regain what he had in 1999-2002, simply because he lost it before he retired.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

Well obviously I disagree. I seem to recall Frank Schleck, Wiggins and Nibali riding away from Lance at Verbier. Same again for Frank on Col de Romme/Colombier. I saw Basso doing extremely well at the Giro (not going to compare the two because one was riding for GC the other was getting base training in) considering he was out for two years.

I can't comment on Gesink or Valverde since they've not been in a recent race with Armstrong (though the fact that Armstrong couldn't/didn't make the selection on Willunga Road at the TDU and Valverde does give one an indication), but I'm confident that Valverde definitely could (I'll reserve opinion on that one).

And yes, Liquigas is going to be the business at the TdF. That's why I think this notion that Armstrong is going to be in a pitched battle with Alberto is glossing over the depth of this field. There will be racing happening in the mountains and I'm just not sold on Armstrong's ability to race (rather than mark wheels) in the mountains for multiple stages. He's going to miss having AC on his team this year more than he realizes.

Good point, but Lance stayed with or left all those guys on Ventoux. Valverde, on the other hand, is the one guy I think could knock Lance off the podium. Assuming he doesn't have his typical bad day, he is one of the most complete riders in the pro peloton.

As for the mountains, the TTT last year gave Lance a cushion, so it will be interesting going into these mountain stages without a TTT how he will respond to a thicker field. I think this has potential to be the best racing we've seen in years at the TdF, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Liquigas totally shake things up.