Hemoglobin values are too low that it is possible to manipulate down there. I interpret this to mean that he must be clean
I don’t understand what he’s saying. If he means LA could not have natural Hb levels of 15-16, fine, but so what? The point is that his levels did not drop during the TDF. The fact that his natural levels that remained more or less constant during the Tour were low has nothing to do with the question of manipulation. If you have a natural Hb level of 13, you can use transfusion/EPO to stabilize that level during a GT just as easily as if you have a natural level of 15-16. Maybe I’m missing something, but his point is not clear to me.
Another important point he doesn’t address: LA’s Hb values are in line with his HT, which is in the low 40s. This is indeed on the low end of the average for males, but this would have potentially given him an advantage. It means he could raise his HT to higher levels without tripping the 50% criterion. And IIRC, he did indeed have HT levels close to 50% in the late 90s, before there was a test for EPO.
The riders who stood to benefit most from EPO were always the ones with naturally low HTs.
Even after the test for EPO was available, as long as he could beat that test—by microdosing, by blood transfusion, maybe by masking—he could manipulate his HT through a considerable range. Up to his initial retirement in 2005, the main thing he had to be concerned about was his off-score, but as discussed here at length, transfusion combined with saline/plasma infusion (to lower HT) and EPO (to raise retics) could beat that test. Even in 09/10, when the passport system was in effect, the same trick would work. Ashenden himself has published articles showing how the passport system could be beaten.
Of course. This is how Hb/HT values are manipulated, by adjusting the volume of the system. He's just saying there is an explanation for fluctuations in values, which of course is true. This is why it's so difficult to make a case using the passport.
This is very important, because it means that when you look at blood values like those shown in this link you are probably seeing the tip of the iceberg. That value of 43 right after the first rest day of the Tour might have been a 44-45 that was lowered with saline. Likewise, the retics value of 0.7 might have been a lower value pumped up with a little EPO. Same thing with the even higher HT and lower retics in the middle of June, when he might have undergone a pre-Tour transfusion.
No matter what you had to read out of the test results, Heier believe that they have no clout. The International Cycling Union (UCI), which has taken samples of Armstrong, has not expressed any suspicion in the wake of the Tour de France.
This seems to be correct. As I said in the OP, I think these values are only useful as corroborative evidence, not standalone proof of doping. Of course, there are other values we haven’t seen. But again, it is quite easy to beat the passport if you don’t get greedy. If you are willing to limit your increase in HT to 2-3 points, enough to stabilize it over the course of a GT, you can escape sanction. The final decision on passport data is made by a group of experts, and they are known to throw out many highly suspicious profiles—with values 99% above the baseline—because of the difficulty in ruling out some non-doping cause. As Heier says:
If you drink more than you sweat, the values decrease, but if you do not compensate fully for the loss of fluid, they will rise.
Of course, this is why it's so difficult to make a case based on passport data alone. As always, only the really dumb and careless riders get caught.
Edit: Another possibility, of course, is an artificial oxygen carrier, such as HemAssist. The enormous advantage of this is that no manipulation of the measurable blood parameters is necessary.
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