Battle for 2023-2025 WT licenses

[huangho]

There has to be a balance, the system has a lot of space to improve... Cuz there are smaller races where you can see top class riders and that's good for the business, but Conti teams cannot get that amount of points in order to get a WT license.

There are certain races where the points should be lowered, but there must be a balance between 2-10 places, something like MotoGP but with different classes depending on the ranking of the race, is a good system but it needs overhauling...

 

[Lexman]

Lotto did a great job today in Deutschland Tour and in Plouay...around 320 points

 

[tobydawq]

Lotto did a great job today in Deutschland Tour and in Plouay...around 320 points

And to be fair, they did ride for the win in Plouay instead of trying to place Campenaerts and De Buyst well too.

 

[yaco]

And to be fair, they did ride for the win in Plouay instead of trying to place Campenaerts and De Buyst well too.

De Lie went 50 metres too early.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

So Lotto are catching up rapidly, Movistar are on course for huge points from Mas and BikeExchange have Yates in a solid position in the Vuelta + decent momentum in general. Puts EF in major trouble, especially given that they have no hope of making the automatic wildcard spots either. EF falling to nineteenth also seems like Israel's best hope of salvaging that consolation prize from their disastrous relegation battle as they aren't making any inroads themselves...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Lotto did a great job today in Deutschland Tour and in Plouay...around 320 points

304 extra.
Moniquet is now back in their top 10, so his 60 points count, but he only adds 28 points on top of the points of Vermeersch who was in tenth place before Moniquet overtook him.

 

[Samamba]

So Lotto are catching up rapidly, Movistar are on course for huge points from Mas and BikeExchange have Yates in a solid position in the Vuelta + decent momentum in general. Puts EF in major trouble, especially given that they have no hope of making the automatic wildcard spots either. EF falling to nineteenth also seems like Israel's best hope of salvaging that consolation prize from their disastrous relegation battle as they aren't making any inroads themselves...

EF will also get a good amount of points from the Vuelta. They have 3 guys in the top 10 and Carthy seems to be getting better and better. Those points will add up. But yes Israel is completely done for after this weekend and should honestly just try to help Lotto where possible. Them passing EF would kind of safe them for next year.

In general Lotto did better than I expected today but they will stil be trailing by a lot in 2 weeks time. They only have Doubs & Canada to get some points in and their best shots in Canada (Wellens & Kron) aren't fit. EF & BEX on the other hand will get free points out of Maryland and Movistar is riding Britain. Both .Pro races with a meeh starting field. Atleast Britain is 8 days of racing. And then I'm not even talking about the GC points in the Vuelta. If Mas doesn't crash Movistar might be safe (with also Valverde getting a good amount), Yates and EF will also get a good amount in total.

So in short, I fear Lotto will still be more than 800 points behind in 14 days. And then it's basically over & out for them. Benelux Tour being cancelled is really hurting them. It would've started tmrw normally.

EDIT: Lotto is also riding Fourmies (.Pro). Both Ewan and De Lie are riding that. They should just both sprint. EF (Van den Berg) and BEX (Groenewegen) will send their sprinters back to Europe (theyll be riding Maryland) for that race too.

 

[SHAD0W93]

EF will also get a good amount of points from the Vuelta. They have 3 guys in the top 10 and Carthy seems to be getting better and better. Those points will add up. But yes Israel is completely done for after this weekend and should honestly just try to help Lotto where possible. Them passing EF would kind of safe them for next year.

In general Lotto did better than I expected today but they will stil be trailing by a lot in 2 weeks time. They only have Doubs & Canada to get some points in and their best shots in Canada (Wellens & Kron) aren't fit. EF & BEX on the other hand will get free points out of Maryland and Movistar is riding Britain. Both .Pro races with a meeh starting field. Atleast Britain is 8 days of racing. And then I'm not even talking about the GC points in the Vuelta. If Mas doesn't crash Movistar might be safe (with also Valverde getting a good amount), Yates and EF will also get a good amount in total.

So in short, I fear Lotto will still be more than 800 points behind in 14 days. And then it's basically over & out for them. Benelux Tour being cancelled is really hurting them. It would've started tmrw normally.

EDIT: Lotto is also riding Fourmies (.Pro). Both Ewan and De Lie are riding that. They should just both sprint. EF (Van den Berg) and BEX (Groenewegen) will send their sprinters back to Europe (theyll be riding Maryland) for that race too.

Do you mean top 20? They are currently in 15th, 17th, and 20th. Nor have they gotten a top 10 in any stage yet. And with the riders ahead of them, the best they could potentially finish are 11th or 12th in my opinion. Though with Carapaz and Cav rumored to go to EF they should still be invited to a lot of races.

 

[yaco]

So Lotto are catching up rapidly, Movistar are on course for huge points from Mas and BikeExchange have Yates in a solid position in the Vuelta + decent momentum in general. Puts EF in major trouble, especially given that they have no hope of making the automatic wildcard spots either. EF falling to nineteenth also seems like Israel's best hope of salvaging that consolation prize from their disastrous relegation battle as they aren't making any inroads themselves...

Bike Exchange is not out of the woods - They had one rider finish in Plouay after a crash took out four of their riders with 60kms to go - They were relying on Matthews and Mezgec - Mezgec crashed out and Matthews was off form - And they are not good in one day races - Maryland and the two Canadian one day races will tell us more.

 

[tobydawq]

Bike Exchange is not out of the woods - They had one rider finish in Plouay after a crash took out four of their riders with 60kms to go - They were relying on Matthews and Mezgec - Mezgec crashed out and Matthews was off form - And they are not good in one day races - Maryland and the two Canadian one day races will tell us more.

Why is Matthews out of form? To peak for Worlds? If he also plans to be out of form there, that would really be a terrible year to take the autumn off.

 

[SafeBet]

Why is Matthews out of form? To peak for Worlds? If he also plans to be out of form there, that would really be a terrible year to take the autumn off.

And a terrible strategy by the Australian national coach.

 

[tobydawq]

And a terrible strategy by the Australian national coach.

Yeah. Of course he wants to peak for Worlds, I'm just quite worried for him if his current level doesn't allow him to finish in the front group in the Bretagne Classic. Then he really has fallen off a cliff since the Mende stage.

 

[Samamba]

Do you mean top 20? They are currently in 15th, 17th, and 20th. Nor have they gotten a top 10 in any stage yet. And with the riders ahead of them, the best they could potentially finish are 11th or 12th in my opinion. Though with Carapaz and Cav rumored to go to EF they should still be invited to a lot of races.

Yeah i ment top 20. If you have 3 riders between 10th and 20th place in the end that 's still a lot of points. With Bettiol en Guerreiro being in perfect form for Canadian races and Van den Berg probably sprinting to some top 5s or top 10s in Maryland and Fourmies they should be good.

 

[postmanhat]

I have posted the difficulties faced by Conti Teams because WT teams are cannibalising smaller races which are the domain of Conti Teams - The other irritation is that good quality riders have been given a calendar of smaller races with them missing bigger races including GT's.

At least half the problem here though is the recent appearance of WT development teams. De Lie and Kooij for example, would probably not have been riding WT three seasons ago? Instead gaining their 1000 points for Bingoal or Topsport, and a healthy paycheque for either at the end of the season. FDJ's ludicrously successful team is at the expense of those in France and The UK. Jumbo and DSM are far more eclectic in their poaching. Below the already WT winner of Avenir, six of the next seven signed riders were on WT development teams.

It will be unsustainable for teams below WT to continue unless they have a national sponsor/generous benefactor. And the changes which most people seem to want, will only be to the benefit of the existing WT teams.

 

[Samamba]

At least half the problem here though is the recent appearance of WT development teams. De Lie and Kooij for example, would probably not have been riding WT three seasons ago? Instead gaining their 1000 points for Bingoal or Topsport, and a healthy paycheque for either at the end of the season. FDJ's ludicrously successful team is at the expense of those in France and The UK. Jumbo and DSM are far more eclectic in their poaching. Below the already WT winner of Avenir, six of the next seven signed riders were on WT development teams.

It will be unsustainable for teams below WT to continue unless they have a national sponsor/generous benefactor. And the changes which most people seem to want, will only be to the benefit of the existing WT teams.

I think you underestimate how good De LIe and Kooij were in the u23 category. They would've definitely made to jump to WT immediately a few years back too. Plus the Lotto development team has existed for 10 years. I don't think that has anything to do with it. Or atleast not in Belgium. The best u23 riders have always been picked up by WT teams immediately (Wellens, De Plus, Benoot, Stuyven, ...) and Topsport still gets a lot of riders from the Belgian development teams, just not the ones that are really good. Topsport has guys like Marit and Herregodts for example, 2 guys that were riding for the Lotto development team. For next year they already signed 2 riders from them too. There might be a small shift with WT teams jumping on talent a bit earlier because of the possibility of them getting snatched by another team, but that's definitely not the reason why those smaller teams are struggling right now. They're all comparing to last 2 seasons, it's just this season that's horrible for them because there's like 7 WT teams riding every small race with good riders.

A little stat: 12 out of 21 Topsport riders are coming directly from the Lotto Soudal development team. So I don't think that development team is a problem.

 

[Ricco']

I think you underestimate how good De LIe and Kooij were in the u23 category. They would've definitely made to jump to WT immediately a few years back too. Plus the Lotto development team has existed for 10 years. I don't think that has anything to do with it. Or atleast not in Belgium. The best u23 riders have always been picked up by WT teams immediately (Wellens, De Plus, Benoot, Stuyven, ...) and Topsport still gets a lot of riders from the Belgian development teams, just not the ones that are really good. Topsport has guys like Marit and Herregodts for example, 2 guys that were riding for the Lotto development team. For next year they already signed 2 riders from them too. There might be a small shift with WT teams jumping on talent a bit earlier because of the possibility of them getting snatched by another team, but that's definitely not the reason why those smaller teams are struggling right now. They're all comparing to last 2 seasons, it's just this season that's horrible for them because there's like 7 WT teams riding every small race with good riders.

A little stat: 12 out of 21 Topsport riders are coming directly from the Lotto Soudal development team. So I don't think that development team is a problem.

The problem with devo teams is that they now can ride with the WT team anytime the team wants and they fill their squads in certain .1 races.

A few years back a rider in a WT devo team would only have the opportunity to ride U23 races, .2 and a select .1 where the parent team wouldn't ride. So, if they wanted to race with the pros, they would need to do it with a "normal" continental or proconti team.

Now they can go for a devo team and have the opportunity at the same time to race any .1 or .Pro races the team wishes for.

 

[Samamba]

The problem with devo teams is that they now can ride with the WT team anytime the team wants and they fill their squads in certain .1 races.

A few years back a rider in a WT devo team would only have the opportunity to ride U23 races, .2 and a select .1 where the parent team wouldn't ride. So, if they wanted to race with the pros, they would need to do it with a "normal" continental or proconti team.

Now they can go for a devo team and have the opportunity at the same time to race any .1 or .Pro races the team wishes for.

That's true, but till now Belgium didn't have that. Lotto U23 is not continental, they will be next year. I was reacting on the De Lie - Topsport example. The link Lotto U23 - Topsport could get worse because of the upgrade to continental level as it will be give riders more reason to stay u23 for another year instead of going pro with Topsport.

 

[SafeBet]

So Lotto are catching up rapidly, Movistar are on course for huge points from Mas and BikeExchange have Yates in a solid position in the Vuelta + decent momentum in general.

With Yates out of the Vuelta (and possibly longer) BikeExchange is again in trouble.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

With Yates out of the Vuelta (and possibly longer) BikeExchange is again in trouble.

Yep, disaster for them. Although in fairness, every team in this battle has seen their leaders fall ill at inopportune times this season so if BE don't make it it won't be purely down to luck.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564900668892143617

Honestly, I'm actually surprised how seriously teams and riders are taking this. I actually like the advantage of non-WT teams to be able to skip irrelevant WT races, sure if you're *** you run the risk of not being invited to the GTs but outside of that is there actually a big benefit from having WT status?
Also, I'm slightly amused about the "risking the future of decade old teams". Let's face it, which teams actually have a real team identity or legacy? Maybe QS and Movistar? I always felt people purely cared about riders and not too much about the team, it's also not easy to build a bond when the Sponsors are jumping teams like grasshoppers and the name changes constantly. But seing these reactions maybe the relegation system changes that? Who knows, interesting development anyway.

 

[Samamba]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564900668892143617

Honestly, I'm actually surprised how seriously teams and riders are taking this. I actually like the advantage of non-WT teams to be able to skip irrelevant WT races, sure if you're *** you run the risk of not being invited to the GTs but outside of that is there actually a big benefit from having WT status?
Also, I'm slightly amused about the "risking the future of decade old teams". Let's face it, which teams actually have a real team identity or legacy? Maybe QS and Movistar? I always felt people purely cared about riders and not too much about the team, it's also not easy to build a bond when the Sponsors are jumping teams like grasshoppers and the name changes constantly. But seing these reactions maybe the relegation system changes that? Who knows, interesting development anyway.

Sponsors pay because they have a guaranteed Tour invite. Relegating would take that away. Sponsors could pull out. Pretty big chance Movistar could just seize to exist for example if they relegate. That's not good for Spanish cycling and imo also not for the sport in general.

Lotto btw is the oldest team in the world. They have been a main sponsor since 1985.

With Yates out of the Vuelta (and possibly longer) BikeExchange is again in trouble.

If there was one team that could take this hit it was BEX. They'll be fine. They'll be taking a massive amount of points in sprint races (maryland, Fourmies, Belgian ones) with Groenewegen and Canada/Worlds with Matthews. As long as Matthews for example doesnt crash out before Canada they have nothing to worry about.

It is quite funny that this is the 2nd time some riders are voicing their opinion about the system just when BEX seems to be in problem. They all didn't care when it was just Israel and Lotto.

 

[Jumbo Visma Fan :)]

Yep, disaster for them. Although in fairness, every team in this battle has seen their leaders fall ill at inopportune times this season so if BE don't make it it won't be purely down to luck.

BEX is in trouble, but Matthews can score a ton of points between now and world champs if he’s on form.

 

[hrotha]

Honestly, I'm actually surprised how seriously teams and riders are taking this. I actually like the advantage of non-WT teams to be able to skip irrelevant WT races, sure if you're *** you run the risk of not being invited to the GTs but outside of that is there actually a big benefit from having WT status?

No, but that can be a huge benefit. Sure, if you're France's top non-WT team it's not a big deal because you're going to be invited to the Tour anyway, but for other teams doing a GT can be the difference between continuing or having to stop. And securing a spot allows you to plan your seasons much more methodically, which has a positive impact on performance.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Sponsors pay because they have a guaranteed Tour invite. Relegating would take that away. Sponsors could pull out. Pretty big chance Movistar could just seize to exist for example if they relegate. That's not good for Spanish cycling and imo also not for the sport in general.

Lotto btw is the oldest team in the world. They have been a main sponsor since 1985.

No, but that can be a huge benefit. Sure, if you're France's top WT team it's not a big deal because you're going to be invited to the Tour anyway, but for other teams doing a GT can be the difference between continuing or having to stop. And securing a spot allows you to plan your seasons much more methodically, which has a positive impact on performance.

Fair points, I think I'm generally dissatisfied with the team system in cycling, it's just completly unsustainable, and therefore don't really care about WT or relegation, it just feels so hollow.
So I get the complaints from BEX perspective, it feels slightly unfair but on the other hand the racing calender is already unfair for every non French, Belgium, Italian and Spanish team. And it feels very short sighted that we knew about the system for over 3 years now and people (like TGH) only panic/care in the last 6 months.

 

[yaco]

Sponsors pay because they have a guaranteed Tour invite. Relegating would take that away. Sponsors could pull out. Pretty big chance Movistar could just seize to exist for example if they relegate. That's not good for Spanish cycling and imo also not for the sport in general.

Lotto btw is the oldest team in the world. They have been a main sponsor since 1985.



If there was one team that could take this hit it was BEX. They'll be fine. They'll be taking a massive amount of points in sprint races (maryland, Fourmies, Belgian ones) with Groenewegen and Canada/Worlds with Matthews. As long as Matthews for example doesnt crash out before Canada they have nothing to worry about.

It is quite funny that this is the 2nd time some riders are voicing their opinion about the system just when BEX seems to be in problem. They all didn't care when it was just Israel and Lotto.

You are overestimating BEX's ability in one day races - Recent history has shown they are average at this discipline - Undoubtedly, BEX has been the unluckiest team hit by COVID in the peleton - Theyv'e had their leader forced out of two GT's when in the position to gain a decent swag of UCI points - You then add the team had to withdraw halfway during Giro 2020 and more importantly there have been no Australian races in the last two years in which they usually collect a swag of points.

I've previous posted that the promotion/relegation system is not needed in cycling and that the points system is flawed. This is even moreso during a pandemic.