Bernal vs. Pogacar vs. Evenepoel

[Põhja Konn]

Bernal is already rather experienced pro despite his young age. It's his fifth season among pros and although he had relatively limited racing schedule at Androni, he was racing against seasoned professionals back then, not juniors or U-23s. He is clearly further forward on his development curve compared to the likes of Pogacar or Sivakov, than one would suggest merely based on their age difference.

Only Evenepoel entered the professional peleton being similarily in his teens. And he is so much younger that the jury is still out concerning his abilities over a three-week tour.

 

[SafeBet]

Contador especially showed flashes really early. Nibali slightly less so, but he got 19th in his first GT while being a domestique and just didn't go through the peckign order that fast. I wouldn't really consider that late. Froome is well, Froome.

With Pogacar, Bernal and Evenepoel, all seem like early bloomers to me, and I say that without making judgment about their potential. Whatever their peak level will be, I don't think they'll be making big steps until their late 20s.

The point I was trying to make is that it's really hard to judge the type of rider Sivakov will become.
He's showing flashes of talent for GC racing that Contador, Nibali and Froome never showed at his age (for different reasons probably), but he's currently not widely regarded as a possible multiple GT winner only because there's a crop of incredibly precocious riders who are a level above him.
Of course, if all were to follow a linear progression in their development, Sivakov would stand no chance against Bernal, Pogacar and likely Evenepoel in 5 years time.
But this is not how it works in most cases, right?

 

[Red Rick]

The point I was trying to make is that it's really hard to judge the type of rider Sivakov will become.
He's showing flashes of talent for GC racing that Contador, Nibali and Froome never showed at his age (for different reasons probably), but he's currently not widely regarded as a possible multiple GT winner only because there's a crop of incredibly precocious riders who are a level above him.
Of course, if all were to follow a linear progression in their development, Sivakov would stand no chance against Bernal, Pogacar and likely Evenepoel in 5 years time.
But this is not how it works in most cases, right?

I agree with you.

There's not really anything to dismiss Sivakov, he's just been super low in the pecking order. Sky/Ineos have turned worse into better before.

It doesn't help Sivakov that Ineos also got Carapaz, but I don't think it would take Sivakov much to get ahead of him in the pecking order. His bigger problem to me seems that he seems really eager on focusing the Tour. IIRC he specifically requested to go which would make him like the 4th cog in the train normally rather than being co leader in the Giro.

Normally he's probably 2nd in line of the Ineos young dudes, so it's not like his long term prospects at Ineos are bad. We can wonder how long Thomas is gonna stick around.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I agree with you.

There's not really anything to dismiss Sivakov, he's just been super low in the pecking order. Sky/Ineos have turned worse into better before.

It doesn't help Sivakov that Ineos also got Carapaz, but I don't think it would take Sivakov much to get ahead of him in the pecking order. His bigger problem to me seems that he seems really eager on focusing the Tour. IIRC he specifically requested to go which would make him like the 4th cog in the train normally rather than being co leader in the Giro.

Normally he's probably 2nd in line of the Ineos young dudes, so it's not like his long term prospects at Ineos are bad. We can wonder how long Thomas is gonna stick around.

I read somewhere this was the last GC Thomas wanted to contest.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I don't think anyone is dismissing Sivakov. It's just that he hasn't done anything to be included the Bernal-Evenepoel-Pogacar conversation. If you include Sivakov, then you can include 15 other riders, which is boring because none of them are Bernal, Evenepoel or Pogacar.

 

[Red Rick]

I read somewhere this was the last GC Thomas wanted to contest.

Makes sense.

I think he missed his best shot at winning a 2nd Tour last year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Makes sense.

I think he missed his best shot at winning a 2nd Tour last year.

Wiggins says he's gonna win it this year and that he'd have won it last year as well, if it weren't for that stage cut short.

 

[Red Rick]

Wiggins says he's gonna win it this year and that he'd have won it last year as well, if it weren't for that stage cut short.

Wiggins says a great lot of things. He might be the last one I go to for an objective take apart from Carlton Kirby when talking about Simon Clarke.

 

[CyclistAbi]

I just watched the replay (Col de Beyrède). Team Ineos in a standard train formation, dominating the race (stage). Honestly it could go either way. If team direction would be for Sivakov to go last, Sivakov would have won in a rather similar fashion Bernal did.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Wiggins says a great lot of things. He might be the last one I go to for an objective take apart from Carlton Kirby when talking about Simon Clarke.

I guess i should have added a to that post. I was more making fun of him than agreeing with him, by posting that.

 

[jaylew]

I just watched the replay (Col de Beyrède). Team Ineos in a standard train formation, dominating the race (stage). Honestly it could go either way. If team direction would be for Sivakov to go last, Sivakov would have won in a rather similar fashion Bernal did.

Possibly. I don't know how steep it was there but I think if Bernal had been in Sivakov's spot and gone full gas, he'd have dropped both he and Vlasov. It flattened out some not long after Bernal went and it was late anyway so he was never going to get too much time in the end.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Even Froome was only 26 in 2011 when he won the Vuelta and 27 in 2012 when he was forced to let Wiggins win the Tour. Not that old.

More pertinently, when Contador won the Tour at age 24, it seemed a foregone conclusion that he would win 5, 6, 7+ Tours and yet he ended up with 2 (3). If I were a betting man, I'd say Bernal will end up with 3 or fewer, and I'd take the field over the others even winning 1.

 

[Red Rick]

Even Froome was only 26 in 2011 when he won the Vuelta and 27 in 2012 when he was forced to let Wiggins win the Tour. Not that old.

More pertinently, when Contador won the Tour at age 24, it seemed a foregone conclusion that he would win 5, 6, 7+ Tours and yet he ended up with 2 (3). If I were a betting man, I'd say Bernal will end up with 3 or fewer, and I'd take the field over the others even winning 1.

It really depends on how much they focus on just winning Tours. Contador didn't ride 2008, and won teh Giro then crashed in 2011, then got no chance in 2012

 

[red_flanders]

What does the term” best athlete“ even mean......? At that age? Ever throughout that riders career? Cause I know Froomes best numbers still beat Sivakovs best numbers. I feel like people say things like this too Flippantly. It’s like when riders always say their numbers are better than they've ever been.

I hear ya. Not sure why anyone would give credence to anything Tim Kerrison says about a Sky rider at this point. PR babble.

 

[tobydawq]

It really depends on how much they focus on just winning Tours. Contador didn't ride 2008, and won teh Giro then crashed in 2011, then got no chance in 2012

He didn't get a chance in 2008 either as his team was not invited.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If we compare Bernal vs. Pogacar vs. Evenepoel vs. Sivakov and potential future GT wins. IMHO Bernal is currently in a much stronger position, due to being a great pro cyclist and due to being No.1 at Ineos. But i don't necessarily see Bernal winning multiple GT races in a row. Likely there will be some wins and losses, not just serial wins.

 

[tobydawq]

The others aren't great pro cyclists?

 

[huangho]

Sivakov is a beast, but he is not in the conversation with Bernal, Pogacar and Evenepoel... yet...

He might get a shot on a 3 weeks GC to prove he is worthy to join them, but as of today I believe we have young 3 horses on that race...

I'm dying to see Evenepoel on Giro, that's quite a test for him!!

 

[Põhja Konn]

Sivakov is a beast, but he is not in the conversation with Bernal, Pogacar and Evenepoel... yet...

He might get a shot on a 3 weeks GC to prove he is worthy to join them, but as of today I believe we have young 3 horses on that race...

I'm dying to see Evenepoel on Giro, that's quite a test for him!!

Sivakov is actually more proven in a GT environment than Evenepoel. Remco is a megatalent, but completely unproven over 3 weeks, so saying he belongs in a converstion while Sivakov does not in a discussion about possible future greats in GT-s is a rather bizarre take on things.

Right now Bernal is clearly ahead of others, but he also is about 2 years ahead them in his development as a rider too.

 

[topcat]

Even Froome was only 26 in 2011 when he won the Vuelta and 27 in 2012 when he was forced to let Wiggins win the Tour. Not that old.

More pertinently, when Contador won the Tour at age 24, it seemed a foregone conclusion that he would win 5, 6, 7+ Tours and yet he ended up with 2 (3). If I were a betting man, I'd say Bernal will end up with 3 or fewer, and I'd take the field over the others even winning 1.

Froome was 34 when he won the 2011 vuelta

 

[CyclistAbi]

The others aren't great pro cyclists?

They are, but they are not No.1 at team Ineos or at a comparable team. Realistically that reduces their chances to win GT races substantially, compared to the Bernal.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

I think not being at Ineos reduces greatly reduces P & E's chances at the Tour. But not the other GTs.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think not being at Ineos reduces greatly reduces P & E's chances at the Tour. But not the other GTs.

Assuming Evenepoel further develops into a GT rider, the way he's been developing, he'll put himself in the last wheel of the Ineos train and he'll be laughing all the way to the bank. The high pace Ineos tries to choke others with, will simply play right into his cards.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Statistically that is correct, there are other GT races. One factor we need to take into consideration is Bernal is still hungry for a Giro win. Hence likely Ineos will try to make attempts in the next year or two. And for them obviously the Tour is always a priority. Will be interesting to see, on how they will manage this two races next year. All in all IMHO Bernal is currently in a rather good position, to win GT races, compared to Pogačar and Evenepoel.

BUT indeed, Bernal won't win all GT races. Hence plenty of opportunity involved for others.

 

[huangho]

Sivakov is actually more proven in a GT environment than Evenepoel. Remco is a megatalent, but completely unproven over 3 weeks, so saying he belongs in a converstion while Sivakov does not in a discussion about possible future greats in GT-s is a rather bizarre take on things.

Right now Bernal is clearly ahead of others, but he also is about 2 years ahead them in his development as a rider too.

The only experience for Sivakov as a GT leader was Giro 2019 and the results were far from great...

But I buy your point saying that Evenepoel is a big question mark on a 3 weeks race, while Pogacar and Bernal are well proven.

Tour 2020 is gonna be exciting (If there are no second wave of virus in France...)