Prospects for a Mayweather-Pacquiao fight suddenly look much better, though it’s typical of this fiasco that there are now new obstacles. For the first time, it appears both fighters are on the same page and really want to meet. FM called out Manny, then called him, literally, and told him he wanted to fight. And Manny has told Bob Arum that he wants the fight to be made.
You would think that would settle it. Floyd got his entry into jail delayed till June 1 so that he could fight the first Saturday in May, always a prime time on the calendar, and have enough time to recover before going to jail. But Bob Arum wants the fight to occur at the end of May, because a) he claims Manny needs the extra time to recover from a gash over one eye; and b) they are building a new, larger venue in Vegas that, according to Arum, will mean an extra $30 million in spectator revenue.
I think Arum, big surprise, is the problem here. Earlier he said Manny would fight May 5. This was when it was thought Floyd would go to jail on Jan. 1, not giving him enough time after coming out to prepare for a fight that date. Now that Floyd is available after all in early May, suddenly that date won’t work for Arum. Seems a little too convenient.
In any case, the first reason sounds suspicious. Manny’s last fight took place last November, it usually doesn’t take that long for a cut to heal. For comparison, Andre Ward delayed his fight with Carl Froch about two months because he had a very nasty gash that had to heal before he could continue sparring. Manny would have twice that length of time before beginning to spar in preparation for a fight in early May (and only three more weeks for a fight at the end of May).
Wrt the new venue, why didn’t Arum mention this when he originally said Manny would fight in early May? It may mean more money, but if it’s a choice between no fight and one worth $30 million less, so what? In the old venue, these two fighters will bring in far more revenue with PPV than any two other fighters—or Manny vs. any other fighter—would bring in in the new venue. And a Mayweather-Pacquiao fight would almost certainly include a rematch clause, so they could go at it again in the new venue. You’re going to pass up a fight worth maybe more than $200 million in revenue because it isn’t $200 + $30 million? Of course, Arum gets more money if Manny doesn’t fight Floyd, since his opponent would be another guy Arum represents. So even in the new venue, a Mayweather-Pacquiao fight is not as lucrative for Arum personally as any other fight.
Some are saying the fight can be delayed till November, when FM’s legal troubles are behind him. Hopefully. But given all the problems preventing this fight from happening so far, I think it would be unwise to assume that. Maybe Floyd will find that he isn’t ready to fight any time soon after coming out of jail. He has always stayed in excellent condition, even in the very long periods that often occur between his fights. He won’t be able to follow his usual routine in jail, and that could throw him off.
Or Manny could lose his next fight against someone else—not likely, but given the closeness of his last fight, more likely than would have been thought before. He barely got past Marquez, and that fact alone has probably reduced fan interest slightly already in a match with Mayweather. Even assuming Manny wins his next fight, if he’s less impressive than before—particularly if it’s against Cotto, whom he dominated the first time—it will only confirm in the minds of many that Pacquiao is no longer quite the fighter he was a year or two ago. That has to make anticipation of a fight with Mayweather a little less suspenseful.
And both fighters are at the age where their skills are probably declining; the longer it takes to get them in the ring together, the less spectacular the fight may be. Arguably, right now neither is quite as fast as he used to be.
Time is definitely running out. I think Manny plans to run for Pres of the Phils, in the spring of 2013 or 2014, whenever his current term in Congress is up. At that point he will definitely retire. He gets away with being a Congressman (though there are many complaints, even from the adoring Filipinos). No way he can be President and continue boxing. (Interesting scenario: would Secret Service equivalents be required to be at ringside, ready to step in and stop the fight if Manny were getting battered? Who would run the country if he were down for a long count?)
If the fight is made in May, I would bet heavily on Mayweather. Not just because MP looked so vulnerable against Marquez. Floyd does not make a fight if he has any doubts about winning. He really treasures his unbeaten record. Manny, on the other hand, will go into the ring with someone he probably isn’t certain he can beat, so I don’t see his willingness to fight Floyd a sign that he regards this as a sure thing. It wasn’t until he dominated Cotto that he became a heavy favorite in every match.
Update from Yahoo sports:
RingTV.com has learned that WBA junior middleweight beltholder Miguel Cotto has agreed to the terms, other than resolving a few minor details, that will allow him to face Manny Pacquiao in a return bout on June 9 in Las Vegas at either the Thomas & Mack Center or the MGM Grand.
Somewhat disappointed—I think Bradley would have been a better opponent, given no Mayweather--but this fight, along with a reported match between Marquez and Lamont Peterson should cast light on the close Pac-JMM fight last November. If it was close because Marquez has a counter-punching style that Pac has trouble with, then Manny should pick up where he left off and beat Cotto easily, as he did when they fought a couple of years ago. Same if the fight was close because Manny didn’t take the fight seriously enough, didn’t train hard enough for it, or was seriously hindered by his foot problems. OTOH, if the Marquez decision was a sign that Manny is starting to decline, we could see a closer fight with Cotto. Maybe. Cotto must believe something is different, because at the end of the last fight he was running for his life. Money is money, of course, but he can't be looking forward to a repeat of that.
Likewise, we will see if JMM just has Manny’s number, or if he is a legitimate player at welter. Given his age, though, and the fact that he isn’t a natural welterweight, I have to think that JMM is over his head on this one. If he does win, or even if it's close, he will establish himself as a player at this weight--and it will also make Floyd look even better, as he totally demolished JMM at this weight a couple of years ago.