British politics

[SeriousSam]

Interesting article in the Guardian today, making the case that you should trust the bookmaker odds more than the polls when it comes to predicting political events. Who would have thought it!

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/21/who-can-you-trust-on-the-eu-referendum-the-pollsters-or-the-bookies

I highly recommend this article.

 

[python]

i dont pay much attention to polls, surveys and particularly to betting odds...they all in my view are directly or indirectly intended to manipulate a particular angle or a side.

when attempting to project anything vote-related, my 1st look would normally be at the structure (and trends) of the particular electorate. the uk today is not what it was during churhill, not even what it was more recently during thatcher or when it was called common market.

it is the electorate that put a muslim to the highest london seat, a country which had its migrant population more than double in two decades since the early 90s, a country that experienced waves of eastern europeans...in one word, the uk just like most countries on the continent has decidedly moved away from a homogeneous nation it once was towards a multicultural, multi-ethnic society...

perhaps it is a stretch, but a split in such a trend would seem an unnatural development. thus, everyone relax, they will remain. Probably.

 

[King Boonen]

Today and tomorrow is going to be fun...

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re:

Avoriaz, you make implicit reference to the ones who will benefit most from Remain: those who have travelled, can travel, and want to travel, i.e. middle & upper class.

On the contrary, eliminating freedom of movement would only favour the upper classes while hurting the middle and lower classes. Why? Because money speaks and, even if there is no freedom of movement in general, rich dudes will always be able to retreat to their French chateaux or Mediterranean villas.

On the other hand, many members of the working class can afford to travel to Europe precisely because the European Union liberalised the airline market, allowing low-cost carriers such as easyJet to compete with flag carriers.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

But it's unclear to me what benefits REMAIN (and the possible susbequent introduction of the Euro) will bring for large parts of the working class.

It will prevent unemployment and real wage grwoth from decreasing. The benefit of REMAIN, according to just about every reasonable prospective policy analysis, is that Brexit will make things much worse.

 

[LeakyBoat]

Re:

But it's unclear to me what benefits REMAIN (and the possible susbequent introduction of the Euro) will bring for large parts of the working class.

Given that the benefits of leaving are more unclear I think that's a non-argument. For my money four years of a Tory party driven by Gove, IDS, Redwood, Fox et al isn't going to be a good thing for any of the working class.

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

But it's unclear to me what benefits REMAIN (and the possible susbequent introduction of the Euro) will bring for large parts of the working class.

Given that the benefits of leaving are more unclear I think that's a non-argument. For my money four years of a Tory party driven by Gove, IDS, Redwood, Fox et al isn't going to be a good thing for any of the working class.

One pretty clear benefit of leaving is that your tax money is not gonna end up in the pockets of politicians traveling to Brussels.

And that's not just their travel expenses I'm talking about. It's also significant pay raise.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

One pretty clear benefit of leaving is that your tax money is not gonna end up in the pockets of politicians traveling to Brussels

MEP wages, staff and expenses amount to a grand total of £0.54 per UK citizen per year.

http://i2.wp.com/www.richardcorbett.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/graph-cost-per-citizen.png

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

One pretty clear benefit of leaving is that your tax money is not gonna end up in the pockets of politicians traveling to Brussels

MEP wages, staff and expenses amount to a grand total of £0.54 per UK citizen per year.

http://i2.wp.com/www.richardcorbett.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/graph-cost-per-citizen.png

So that's 30 or 40 million pounds per year.
You could do a lot of useful things with that money.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Re: Re:

So that's 30 or 40 million pounds per year.
You could do a lot of useful things with that money.

Such as paying for democratically elected representatives to defend your interests in the European Parliament.

 

[sniper]

Re: Re:

So that's 30 or 40 million pounds per year.
You could do a lot of useful things with that money.

Such as paying for democratically elected representatives to defend your interests in the European Parliament.

but that's nothing tangible, except for those representatives who now fill their pockets with your money.
you could do a lot of tangible things with that money.

 

[King Boonen]

Re: Re:

So that's 30 or 40 million pounds per year.
You could do a lot of useful things with that money.

Such as paying for democratically elected representatives to defend your interests in the European Parliament.

but that's nothing tangible, except for those representatives who now fill their pockets with your money.
you could do a lot of tangible things with that money.

Like..? it's about 0.002% of GDP.

Overall EU membership costs us 0.5% of GDP and contributes 5% of GDP.

 

[SeriousSam]

Yeah, that expense is orders of magnitudes lower than the economic costs of Brexit.

Which, thankfully, isn't going to happen. Remain now at 85% with the bookmakers.

 

[python]

it is getting late in europe... the voting swing has probably by now achieved the proportion that could be indicative of the final...france 24 has been referring to 2 latest polls suggesting the remain lead by 52/48 and 54/46.

 

[ferryman]

0/382 announced so far. Looks like a high % turn out of voters across the UK. From what I can determine so far, big remain vote in Scotland. Don't think it will be as close as I thought across the rest of the UK. Remain will win comfortably I think.

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Gibraltar votes to Remain by 96% to 4%.

 

[The Hitch]

85% chance of remain according to oddschecker

 

[Frosty]

Newcastle should have been a relatively safe remain place but it only went remain by 50.7 - 49.3

 

[ferryman]

Re:

Newcastle should have been a relatively safe remain place but it only went remain by 50.7 - 49.3

Sunderland next up I think. Getting, interesting....

 

[The Hitch]

Re: Re:

Newcastle should have been a relatively safe remain place but it only went remain by 50.7 - 49.3

Sunderland next up I think. Getting, interesting....

Leave won that easy. Was it expected to?

 

[Frosty]

Re: Re:

Newcastle should have been a relatively safe remain place but it only went remain by 50.7 - 49.3

Sunderland next up I think. Getting, interesting....

Leave won that easy. Was it expected to?

Not quite that easily

 

[CheckMyPecs]

Sterling going through the floor.

 

[ferryman]

Re: Re:

Newcastle should have been a relatively safe remain place but it only went remain by 50.7 - 49.3

Sunderland next up I think. Getting, interesting....

Leave won that easy. Was it expected to?

Don't know tbh. But pretty shocked by that one. Going to be an interesting night...Scotland will stand strong as remain is the only thing I can be confident about!!

 

[The Hitch]

Re:

*** BREXIT ***
Everything you need to know is right here, courtesy of the extremely wonderful and witty John Oliver. Make sure you watch right to the end.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/20/john-oliver-explains-the-insane-brexit-vote-to-the-rest-of-the-world/

Honestly didn't find a single joke in the whole thing that was aimed at someone over 10

 

[Red Rick]

So it will go like this through the whole night?