Caruso won't cooperate, he'll try to defend, as we've seen today. He had a chance to drop Bernal, but he choose to ride tempo to defend from Yates, and he even paced Bernal in the process.Hopefully. He is massively dependend on Caruso being willing to go for the big one instead of just defending his podium. If the two teams work together against Bernal they have a chance. That is if today wasn't just a bad day for Bernal but the beginning of a trend.
Problem is that when Nieve is done Bernal will probably still have Castro, Martinez and one out of Moscon/Navarez. You already mentioned Almeida. Also have to account for Caruso. Yates needs a 2018 Froome/FInestre or Nibali 2016 Agnello/Risoul kind of miracle.Deserved win. This is Simon Yates we all know, and he will attack again tomorrow, only this time much earlier. My guess is on penultimate climb, while Nieve will drill it all the way up San Bernardino, although much depends on composition of the break, and also depends on Almeida attitude. If he tries to go early to connect to the break that would create chaos.