Teams & Riders Brothers in (crank) arms - Yates Discussion Thread

[tobydawq]

I have more faith in Yates winning this Giro than at the same point in 2018.

I don't believe you.

 

[Pinot's goat]

I don't believe you.

I was sure he would blow up in Giro 2018, that won't happen here, in fact I think he will only get stronger.

 

[Blanco]

Surprised by his performance today - A bit more improvement in his level and a top 5 is a lock and possibly a podium.

Top 5 is already lock. I'm waiting for Zoncolan to see if he can actually win the whole thing...

 

[johnymax]

It was mainly his own words before the stage that suggested he wouldn't do great on gravel. He expressed his anxiety about the gravel and also said that GT is not a right place for a gravel sectors. Then you'd rather not expect a lot from him with that sort of attitude before even the stage started..
So in this context, his today's performance was quite surprising.

Also he has ridden Strade Bianche for the first time earlier in the season and didn't exactly shine there.

 

[limak_]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8S5Kn5yfG0&t=1s&ab_channel=TeamBikeExchange

(0:34)

Apparentely, Simon didn't pass up a single opportunity before the stage to say that he's not in a very amicable relationship with gravel.

 

[Bolder]

Yates is either sandbagging or he's hoping his form comes around. I thought he rode very cleverly yesterday to stay in the lead group, even if he was yo yo ing off the back much of the time on the sterrato.

 

[Gigs_98]

Well, didn't I really predict this because I predicted myself to be unable to predict Yates?

 

[Pricey_sky]

He could still be very interesting if he’s timed his peak for week 3. Probably the only guy who looks capable of beating Bernal in top form.

 

[Red Rick]

@Gigs_98

 

[Strawberry_Jams]

"I won't go into detail but it wasn't the best of the first weeks but now I'm feeling much better"

I'll leave it for anyone else to go into detail below...

 

[CyclistAbi]

Nice ride today on Zoncloan and i guess our only hope remaining to challenge Bernal in week 3 and make this Giro a bit more spicy.

 

[Blanco]

It was a hint what he will do on Monday, It's going to be full gas from the bottom of Passo Giau, we'll see who can hold on. The fight is on, this Giro is far from over.

 

[Cookster15]

I can't see Yates challenging Bernal and Ineos from here based upon what we are seeing. Push him maybe but not seriously challenge. Passo Giau is 2,236 metres - Bernal's playground. I also predict Bernal will put time into Yates in the Milan TT.

Of course, this all depends upon his back holding up.

 

[yaco]

I doubt very much that Bernal will beat Yates in the ITT - Yates hope is to chip away in the remaining stages which will suggest Bernal level is dropping - Get within 20 or 30 seconds before the final ITT and then it's game on.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

What I don't understand is how he can be in top form in Tour of the Alps, then suck two weeks later only to be back in world dominator form once again a week later. Form doesn't come and go that quickly. It just doesn't make any sense, unless he's been ill.

 

[SafeBet]

What I don't understand is how he can be in top form in Tour of the Alps, then suck two weeks later only to be back in world dominator form once again a week later. Form doesn't come and go that quickly. It just doesn't make any sense, unless he's been ill.

It's his DS so we don't necessarily have to believe him, but Copeland told RAI that Yates' numbers weren't bad in the first week. He believe the others improved a lot compared to how they performed in Tour of the Alps. He specifically mentioned Vlasov among the ones he thinks improved.

So I checked how the riders Yates beat at TotA fared in the first week:

Bilbao - a lot worse than Yates
Vlasov - a little better than Yates (but he was already the closest to Yates by the end of TotA)
Cepeda - a lot worse
Carthy - a little better (probably the rider who improved the most relatively to TotA)
Sivakov - we have no idea
Quintana - not here
Guerreiro - worse (and he's a aomestique here so hard to compare)
Bardet - worse
Schultz - worse (see Guerreiro)

So overall I don't think we have many reference points for Yates performance in week 1 compared to TotA. Copeland probably had Vlasov and Carthy in mind when talking about riders who improved. In reality they weren't much better than Yates (Vlasov was around 30 seconds ahead, Carthy 10 seconds). Perhaps we overstated Yates' problems in week 1 because we were expecting him to crush the opposition?

 

[Red Rick]

It's his DS so we don't necessarily have to believe him, but Copeland told RAI that Yates' numbers weren't bad in the first week. He believe the others improved a lot compared to how they performed in Tour of the Alps. He specifically mentioned Vlasov among the ones he thinks improved.

So I checked how the riders Yates beat at TotA fared in the first week:

Bilbao - a lot worse than Yates
Vlasov - a little better than Yates (but he was already the closest to Yates by the end of TotA)
Cepeda - a lot worse
Carthy - a little better (probably the rider who improved the most relatively to TotA)
Sivakov - we have no idea
Quintana - not here
Guerreiro - worse (and he's a aomestique here so hard to compare)
Bardet - worse
Schultz - worse (see Guerreiro)

So overall I don't think we have many reference points for Yates performance in week 1 compared to TotA. Copeland probably had Vlasov and Carthy in mind when talking about riders who improved. In reality they weren't much better than Yates (Vlasov was around 30 seconds ahead, Carthy 10 seconds). Perhaps we overstated Yates' problems in week 1 because we were expecting him to crush the opposition?

Basically we'd have expected him to be in the first group on stage 4 and 6, and probably be top 4 on stage 9 as well. And maybe it's a little based on us underestimating Bernal as well.

Also I think we were expecting an impending Yates implosion or something like that.

 

[SafeBet]

Basically we'd have expected him to be in the first group on stage 4 and 6, and probably be top 4 on stage 9 as well. And maybe it's a little based on us underestimating Bernal as well.

Also I think we were expecting an impending Yates implosion or something like that.

He's probably the rider whose GT performance is the hardest to predict since I started following cycling. You have a low floor, an excitingly high ceiling and everything in between too.

Pre-2018 Yates was the kind of guy who's reasonably consistent, could finish every GT he enters in the top10 and sneak on the podium with the right circumstances (someone like Majka?). Then he dominates a GT for two weeks and drops an hour in the final 2 stages. Then he wins a GT in fairly convincing fashion (ok Vuelta, but still). Then he's back to his old top10 self you barely notice for 3 weeks. And now he flies under the radar for 10 stages and starts looking like a threat at the end of week 2. I mean WTF?

 

[Red Rick]

He's probably the rider whose GT performance is the hardest to predict since I started following cycling. You have a low floor, an excitingly high ceiling and everything in between too.

Pre-2018 Yates was the kind of guy who's reasonably consistent, could finish every GT he enters in the top10 and sneak on the podium with the right circumstances (someone like Majka?). Then he dominates a GT for two weeks and drops an hour in the final 2 stages. Then he wins a GT in fairly convincing fashion (ok Vuelta, but still). Then he's back to his old top10 self you barely notice for 3 weeks. And now he flies under the radar for 10 stages and starts looking like a threat at the end of week 2. I mean WTF?

Still think the sample size of him being unexpectedly nowhere was only N=1 with the 2019 Giro.

 

[BlueRoads]

Nice how Ineos bought Adam, but Simon is the one working for Bernal on the Zoncolan.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Nice how Ineos bought Adam, but Simon is the one working for Bernal on the Zoncolan.

Who knows, maybe it's Adam...

 

[Blanco]

Nice how Ineos bought Adam, but Simon is the one working for Bernal on the Zoncolan.

Egan will repay him in latter stages.

 

[roundabout]

Nice how Ineos bought Adam, but Simon is the one working for Bernal on the Zoncolan.

Before Bernal dropped him, I thought Yates looked the better of the 2

 

[Red Rick]

Before Bernal dropped him, I thought Yates looked the better of the 2

I think that's just style though.

Tbh losing 13s at such a gradient after isn't extremely much, but it's still something.

 

[roundabout]

I think that's just style though.

Tbh losing 13s at such a gradient after isn't extremely much, but it's still something.

I mean BlueRoads' post was very tongue-in-cheek, but from the perspective of the team car there was no reason for Yates to ease off.