He was on the limit on San Pellegrino in Alpe, so he needs to improve in the third week to have a chance.
That's always been the plan apparently, despite a massively interrupted buildup, though I expect him to look like the best in the race before dropping 25 minutes 2 days later as is tradition.
In that respect, the race couldn't've gone much better for him, he's 2nd having not expended much energy and all the stages that suit him to come.
Despite there not being much to work with, I think Carapaz is the best climber in the race currently with Del Toro a wildcard. They weren't catching him on that climb the other day on a month of Sundays.