By How Much Will Quintana Win The 2016 Vuelta With?

[Netserk]

Vote!

 

[SeriousSam]

I'm going to wait for The Markets to settle before voting

 

[Arredondo]

After Aubisque. After Aubisque.

 

[Brullnux]

It's more of a question of how much Scarponi will destroy him by on Aubisque, Formigal and Aitana once he gets back to Giro form

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted 2:00-2:30
Froome did well today but I expect that he will get worse, just like in 2012. Therefore I also think the gc battle is definitely over except Quintana has a really bad day, crashes or someone does a long range attack (which seems unlikely since Movistar is ridiculously strong).

 

[PremierAndrew]

I voted 2:00-2:30
Froome did well today but I expect that he will get worse, just like in 2012. Therefore I also think the gc battle is definitely over except Quintana has a really bad day, crashes or someone does a long range attack (which seems unlikely since Movistar is ridiculously strong).

2012 Froome was already dead by this point

 

[Pantani_lives]

Superstitious as I am I refuse to vote and say this thread should be closed, because it can bring bad luck. A huge anticlimax is still possible if Froome takes a lot of time back in the time trial. Aubisque is a climb that fits him better. I hope Quintana will win and I think he would deserve to, but it's far and far from over.

I wonder what will happen if Valverde attacks in a medium mountain stage.

There's also a grammatical error in the title.

 

[Homo Helveticus]

Illness can strike anyone. Basso in 2005 Giro for example. Casagrande in 2004 Tour de Suisse or 2001. Quintana too, although I'm enthusiastic over his form.

 

[Brullnux]

I voted 2:00-2:30
Froome did well today but I expect that he will get worse, just like in 2012. Therefore I also think the gc battle is definitely over except Quintana has a really bad day, crashes or someone does a long range attack (which seems unlikely since Movistar is ridiculously strong).

2012 Froome was already dead by this point

Not really. At Collada de la Gallina he only lost 15" to Valverde, Purito and Contador, then lost 20 (including bonus) in that stage where Purito beasted everyone into Barcelona. Then he beat everyone bar Contador and Kessiakoff in the TT, putting half a minute into Valverde, which in a hilly TT against him when he is in form is no mean feat. He wasn't in top shape, but he definitely wasn't dead. He died at Neila, and then Fuente De.

 

[patrick767]

How much time does Quintana need on Froome before the stage 19 ITT?

 

[barmaher]

I think Quintana will lose around a minute to Froome in the ITT.

I don't think there will be much between them in the remaining mountain stages. I think Quintana will win the Vuelta, but by a narrow margin.

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted 2:00-2:30
Froome did well today but I expect that he will get worse, just like in 2012. Therefore I also think the gc battle is definitely over except Quintana has a really bad day, crashes or someone does a long range attack (which seems unlikely since Movistar is ridiculously strong).

2012 Froome was already dead by this point

Not at all. He was already 50 seconds behind Purito but thats because Purito gained a lot of time with bonus seconds, the time he actually lost on the road wasn't that much. And he was still in front of Valverde and Contador who were 1st and 2nd in the final gc.

 

[PremierAndrew]

I voted 2:00-2:30
Froome did well today but I expect that he will get worse, just like in 2012. Therefore I also think the gc battle is definitely over except Quintana has a really bad day, crashes or someone does a long range attack (which seems unlikely since Movistar is ridiculously strong).

2012 Froome was already dead by this point

Not really. At Collada de la Gallina he only lost 15" to Valverde, Purito and Contador, then lost 20 (including bonus) in that stage where Purito beasted everyone into Barcelona. Then he beat everyone bar Contador and Kessiakoff in the TT, putting half a minute into Valverde, which in a hilly TT against him when he is in form is no mean feat. He wasn't in top shape, but he definitely wasn't dead. He died at Neila, and then Fuente De.

Nope that hilly TT was where he died. No way he shouldn't have been in red after that, even despite that amazing TT from Purito

 

[Gigs_98]

I voted 2:00-2:30
Froome did well today but I expect that he will get worse, just like in 2012. Therefore I also think the gc battle is definitely over except Quintana has a really bad day, crashes or someone does a long range attack (which seems unlikely since Movistar is ridiculously strong).

2012 Froome was already dead by this point

Not really. At Collada de la Gallina he only lost 15" to Valverde, Purito and Contador, then lost 20 (including bonus) in that stage where Purito beasted everyone into Barcelona. Then he beat everyone bar Contador and Kessiakoff in the TT, putting half a minute into Valverde, which in a hilly TT against him when he is in form is no mean feat. He wasn't in top shape, but he definitely wasn't dead. He died at Neila, and then Fuente De.

Nope that hilly TT was where he died. No way he shouldn't have been in red after that, even despite that amazing TT from Purito

That TT was on stage 11 though

 

[Brullnux]

I voted 2:00-2:30
Froome did well today but I expect that he will get worse, just like in 2012. Therefore I also think the gc battle is definitely over except Quintana has a really bad day, crashes or someone does a long range attack (which seems unlikely since Movistar is ridiculously strong).

2012 Froome was already dead by this point

Not really. At Collada de la Gallina he only lost 15" to Valverde, Purito and Contador, then lost 20 (including bonus) in that stage where Purito beasted everyone into Barcelona. Then he beat everyone bar Contador and Kessiakoff in the TT, putting half a minute into Valverde, which in a hilly TT against him when he is in form is no mean feat. He wasn't in top shape, but he definitely wasn't dead. He died at Neila, and then Fuente De.

Nope that hilly TT was where he died. No way he shouldn't have been in red after that, even despite that amazing TT from Purito

Still not exactly 'dead' though. Out of shape, but nowhere near dead. Neila was the moment the final sword was lodged in him.

 

[PremierAndrew]

I voted 2:00-2:30
Froome did well today but I expect that he will get worse, just like in 2012. Therefore I also think the gc battle is definitely over except Quintana has a really bad day, crashes or someone does a long range attack (which seems unlikely since Movistar is ridiculously strong).

2012 Froome was already dead by this point

Not really. At Collada de la Gallina he only lost 15" to Valverde, Purito and Contador, then lost 20 (including bonus) in that stage where Purito beasted everyone into Barcelona. Then he beat everyone bar Contador and Kessiakoff in the TT, putting half a minute into Valverde, which in a hilly TT against him when he is in form is no mean feat. He wasn't in top shape, but he definitely wasn't dead. He died at Neila, and then Fuente De.

Nope that hilly TT was where he died. No way he shouldn't have been in red after that, even despite that amazing TT from Purito

That TT was on stage 11 though

It wasn't stage 10? Forget everything I said then

 

[IndianCyclist]

Quintana will crack bad in the 3rd week

 

[Escarabajo]

I don't think this is done deal. It is far from over. Quintana needs a bigger safety gap than what he has right now. Plus crashes and illness aside anything can happen.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

Quintana will crack bad in the 3rd week

Quintana was great in the 3rd week last year and generally is known to be extremely strong in the last week of a gt. I think he will be very consistent

 

[Cookster15]

Quintana is now the big favourite but this is far from a done deal. Poll is too early I abstain from voting.

 

[DFA123]

Several minutes. He looks way stronger than everyone else at the moment, and he simply doesn't crack in the third week of GTs.

 

[Ramon Koran]

I voted for 4+ he's miles stronger than anyone else end of story

 

[fungusbear]

I think he still needs 30-1min on Froome for the TT. Plus Contador may get stronger so a long range attack is not impossible. While Quintana is very much the massive favourite, this race is not over.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Would be surprised if Froome becomes stronger relative to Quintana, so I'd say 1.30 at this point. That means he will have to gain 2 minutes more in the mountains assuming he will lose around 1.30 in the ITT.

 

[Poursuivant]

I only see him ceding 1"00, at most to Froome in TT, and he is clearly stronger on the climbs, this looks like his Vuelta.