Cadel Evans Discussion Thread

[Archibald]

I'm waiting for someone's "look out for Evans tomorrow", because after the MTT he was warmed down and bundled off to the hotel for recovery straight after crossing the line, while Nibbles had to hang around in the cold for presentations and pee-ing in the bottle (being the stage winner), and therefore won't have recovered as well...

this was Schlecklet's complaint after Galibier in 2012 and while he got blown away by Evans in the ITT. Which notably, was the last 3rd week TT that Evans did well in...

 

[movingtarget]

Evans like Purito is very strong in the closing kilometers but the race of truth exposed his true condition over long distance. So far no one has attacked or ridden strongly at the front 5-6 km from the finish except Uran. Evans will crack over that distance but not at 1-2 Km from finish.

In his interview he said it's the short intense stages like yesterday that he struggles in. He finished 10th at Trentino I think so this has been a progression for him even though outclassed by Nibali who has outclassed everyone. The first long time trial supports that.

 

[M Sport]

as a sidenote, is anyone available to help me with compiling a list of posts writing off Evans at the start of the race?

I didn't write anything prior to the Giro but you can start your Tour list off with me if you want. He won't podium, and van Garderen will beat him unless he has some misfortune.

 

[movingtarget]

He is probably drowning his sorrows at the local watering hole with the guy who kept posting that Evans was getting stronger.

This was not exactly unpredictable. Even five years ago Evans would weaken in the final week of a GT and now he is five years older with an insufficient racing base. He probably had a bad day on top of fatigue, so it does not necessarily mean he will implode on subsequent stages.

Actually Evans won the Tour two years ago with a strong third week and almost won the final TT. The only riders that don't usually have a bad day are the winners or the guys that finish in the autobus every day. Some comments from Cadel's website :

Giro d'Italia - Stage 18
Thursday, 23 May 2013
A nice scenic 20km uphill time trial in the mountains above Lago di Garda. Nice to ride, nice to watch if you are equipped for the bad weather, and nice to race if you have the legs. As the results show, Nibali was in a class of his own, and I was way off the pace loosing a massive chunk of time. Disappointing for the GC yes, but considering what I need to get back to my best is a good three week flogging, not so bad. Tomorrow? Well...who knows? The plan was for two mountain stages, but the weather seems to have other ideas. The last I heard was that the race organisers decide tomorrow morning. We - like everyday here at this Giro - prepare for everything and anything.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Can anyone put their hands up and say Evans was going to be 2nd at this point in time?

...


I didn't think so.

 

[Ferminal]

No, I expected Hesjedal to be 2nd.

 

[M Sport]

Can anyone put their hands up and say Evans was going to be 2nd at this point in time?

...


I didn't think so.

In all likelihood he will be 4th by the end. The bookies had him as 6th favorite before the race, given that two of the favorites dropped out is there really any surprise?

 

[Spider1964]

Can anyone put their hands up and say Evans was going to be 2nd at this point in time?

...


I didn't think so.

I tipped him to win in the pre-tour poll... so at this stage I'm out by one.. He's 2nd in a GT.. not to be sniffed at. With luck he will hold this position.

Route, Weather, Descending (Hello Wiggo!) all contribute to make this a tough GT.. man is a hard ****, end of.

 

[BroDeal]

Actually Evans won the Tour two years ago with a strong third week and almost won the final TT. The only riders that don't usually have a bad day are the winners or the guys that finish in the autobus every day.

Actually Evans has a history of having a lackluster third week and a subpar performance in the final time trial. One success against a fatigued and injured Contador and a weak field does not change that. If it was not true then he would have won two more Tours.

 

[Ferminal]

I think it's more pronounced now though, we will know for sure in 10 hours.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Actually Evans has a history of having a lackluster third week and a subpar performance in the final time trial. One success against a fatigued and injured Contador and a weak field does not change that. If it was not true then he would have won two more Tours.

Weak field in 2011? I would hardly describe it that at all. He has had plenty of successes in final weeks of GT's.

 

[Walkman]

Actually Evans has a history of having a lackluster third week and a subpar performance in the final time trial. One success against a fatigued and injured Contador and a weak field does not change that. If it was not true then he would have won two more Tours.

In 2008 he had a bad crash affecting him and Satre did the time trial of his life.

 

[BroDeal]

Weak field in 2011? I would hardly describe it that at all. He has had plenty of successes in final weeks of GT's.

Uh-huh. That's why he has so many GT wins.

 

[Netserk]

Evans should count himself lucky that the stage today is cancelled. He could still fall off the podium tomorrow though.

 

[Franklin]

Actually Evans has a history of having a lackluster third week and a subpar performance in the final time trial. One success against a fatigued and injured Contador and a weak field does not change that. If it was not true then he would have won two more Tours.

I think the facts are actually not supporting your claim here. He had mediocre last weeks, but also several pretty good one.

Sometimes the answer is the obvious one: he didn't win more because the others beat him.

Also, the field in 2011 can hardly be called weak. He beats the Schlecks, Contador, Samuel Sanchez. All GT winners/podium finishers.

 

[Franklin]

Uh-huh. That's why he has so many GT wins.

I'm not following your logic that Evans having a strong third week would cause him to win more GT's. It would depend on the competition. It only takes one to beat him. The facts show he had several pretty good third weeks, which invlidates your point.

Evans simply wasn't strong enough. And tbh I think he's a tad to old now.

 

[BroDeal]

I'm not following your logic that Evans having a strong third week would cause him to win more GT's. It would depend on the competition. It only takes one to beat him. The facts show he had several pretty good third weeks, which invlidates your point.

The facts show he lost several GTs because of bad third weeks. The facts also show sub-par final time trials, 2011 withstanding.

 

[Franklin]

The facts show he lost several GTs because of bad third weeks.

The facts also show he had good third weeks, which makes your point not uncontested

The facts also show sub-par final time trials, 2011 withstanding.

And here I argue that this is not true. He never won a TT in the first two weeks, so the claim that his TT was better in the first week has no data to support it. Cadel is a bit like Menchov. A good TT, seldom the best.

 

[notrolfsorensen]

I thought Evans was going to speed past the Astana team car and give their DS 'the look', like Armstrong-Riis on the Alpe d'Huez ITT 2004.

Youtube or it didn't happen... What look was that, I don't remember that.

 

[movingtarget]

The facts also show he had good third weeks, which makes your point not uncontested



And here I argue that this is not true. He never won a TT in the first two weeks, so the claim that his TT was better in the first week has no data to support it. Cadel is a bit like Menchov. A good TT, seldom the best.

Evans is resented because he has possibly had some luck. No one knows for sure how he would have gone in the cancelled stage. The fact is he is still in the race giving it his best while other so called favourites and incredible talents, dropped out for one reason or another. No one doubts Nibali has been by far the strongest but Evans consistency has once again kept him near the top. When was the last time a 36 year old podiumed ? Anyway the organisers have not said that Saturday's stage has also been cancelled even though it does not look good. But I suppose Evans is to blame for the weather as well ?

 

[BroDeal]

The facts also show he had good third weeks, which makes your point not uncontested

Only once when it counted. The other times, when it really mattered, not so much.

And here I argue that this is not true. He never won a TT in the first two weeks, so the claim that his TT was better in the first week has no data to support it. Cadel is a bit like Menchov. A good TT, seldom the best.

Winning a time time trial is irrelevant. In recent years ITTs in GT are often won by guys like Cancellara, who can rest in the days before a time trial. It is about using time trials to gain an advantge over climbers who were likely to gain time on him in the moutains. He was usually better at that in the first time trial than the second. The dude weakens relative to his competition over the course of a GT. This Giro follows his classic pattern.

 

[movingtarget]

Only once when it counted. The other times, when it really mattered, not so much.



Winning a time time trial is irrelevant. In recent years ITTs in GT are often won by guys like Cancellara, who can rest in the days before a time trial. It is about using time trials to gain an advantge over climbers who were likely to gain time on him in the moutains. He was usually better at that in the first time trial than the second. The dude weakens relative to his competition over the course of a GT. This Giro follows his classic pattern.

There is no classic pattern. 2007 Tour strong second time trial, 2008 after a heavy fall and Sastre riding the best TT of his life, not so good, 2009 and 10 was way out of contention before the TT, 2011 Tour would have won the TT if his team told him how close he was to Martin's time, 2012 Tour was sick, 2010 Giro strong second TT, 2009 Vuelta under his best but not bad, those were his best GC years. There is no pattern he was up and down like most people. Menchov was the same, same days great other days mediocre. About the only rider that always rode a better TT than Evans or most of the time from the GC candidates was Contador except for 2011 Tour.

 

[Mr. McQ]

Evans is too old He should stand aside gracefully

Sky will embarrass

 

[BroDeal]

There is no classic pattern. 2007 Tour strong second time trial, 2008 after a heavy fall and Sastre riding the best TT of his life, not so good, 2009 and 10 was way out of contention before the TT, 2011 Tour would have won the TT if his team told him how close he was to Martin's time, 2012 Tour was sick, 2010 Giro strong second TT, 2009 Vuelta under his best but not bad, those were his best GC years. There is no pattern he was up and down like most people. Menchov was the same, same days great other days mediocre. About the only rider that always rode a better TT than Evans or most of the time from the GC candidates was Contador except for 2011 Tour.

Wow. You are a master of excuses. Have you ever considered at career at Team Sky?

 

[movingtarget]

Wow. You are a master of excuses. Have you ever considered at career at Team Sky?

In his worst Tours in 2009 and 2010 the third week did not matter. 2009 he was riding in the autobus in 30th place or whatever and in 2010 broke his elbow. Evans made a steady progression in his first few Tours until the two second places in 2007 and 2008. As for Sky, if they offered me a job on the same money I am earning now I would take it. Be involved in my favourite sport. Chief bottle distributor, bike washer or some such. I work for the govt and they have even more excuses than Sky ! I don't dislike the Sky team but last year's Tour won't be one I will revisit. Froome was a good team man. The best man won just like the current Giro.