Cadel evans do or die for tour de france this july

[Libertine Seguros]

Evans might not strike you as the type to complain without reason... but he doesn't need much of a reason before he will.

 

[Mshort]

I had the pleasure of riding with Cadel very very early on in his riding career when he was still focussed on MTBs but was doing some criterium riding to sharpen him up. He never complained; never made excuses and he knew how to suffer like a dog and he was only 19 or thereabouts. He's also very quiet, very studious and very serious. He's a really smart guy who knows the strengths and weaknesses of his competitors better than just about anyone else.

My assessment, for what it is worth, is that unfortunately the guy will never win the TdF but he still has a shot at the podium which is no mean feat (he can still win a GT but only if one of the top candidates like Schleck or Contador doesn't show or fails due to injury or illness). He just doesn't have the pysiological make up to be the very best in week three. He can hold his own but struggles to make time up. I always thought he was tailor made for the 1 week races - he's have won the Dauphine if he'd prep'ed for it instead of coming straight off a tough altitude training camp.

WRT team support: his style, developed off the MTB experience has been constant threshold pace and effort on the selection moments of the climbs - invariably near the end of mountain top finishes. That's why he is normally labelled as boring and a wheel sucker. He wants a team that delivers him to the bottom of the last climb in the front and without expending any energy. From the bottom to the top of the last climb he is happy to be in the wheels and go it alone.

IN the past, this strategy has failed when he found himself with the GC lead early on. The team is normally not built to defend the lead. The strength of this new team structure is that they look to have enough strength to sit on the front and chase down dangerous breaks and bring the race back together before the selection moments if required to do so.

Go son. We'll be there barracking for ya.

 

[Angliru]

Evans might not strike you as the type to complain without reason... but he doesn't need much of a reason before he will.

Just a bit high strung. He'll complain and slap about but apologize shortly afterwards after he's had his hissy fit. Just ask Gesink and that Italian rider he accosted for disturbing Evans' pursuit of a dangerous escapee.

 

[therealtimshady]

No chance of evans winning the tour. Just don't see how he can gain any time in the mountains and his time trialing isn't what
It used to be so top 5 at most

 

[Angliru]

I had the pleasure of riding with Cadel very very early on in his riding career when he was still focussed on MTBs but was doing some criterium riding to sharpen him up. He never complained; never made excuses and he knew how to suffer like a dog and he was only 19 or thereabouts. He's also very quiet, very studious and very serious. He's a really smart guy who knows the strengths and weaknesses of his competitors better than just about anyone else.

My assessment, for what it is worth, is that unfortunately the guy will never win the TdF but he still has a shot at the podium which is no mean feat (he can still win a GT but only if one of the top candidates like Schleck or Contador doesn't show or fails due to injury or illness). He just doesn't have the pysiological make up to be the very best in week three. He can hold his own but struggles to make time up. I always thought he was tailor made for the 1 week races - he's have won the Dauphine if he'd prep'ed for it instead of coming straight off a tough altitude training camp.

WRT team support: his style, developed off the MTB experience has been constant threshold pace and effort on the selection moments of the climbs - invariably near the end of mountain top finishes. That's why he is normally labelled as boring and a wheel sucker. He wants a team that delivers him to the bottom of the last climb in the front and without expending any energy. From the bottom to the top of the last climb he is happy to be in the wheels and go it alone.

IN the past, this strategy has failed when he found himself with the GC lead early on. The team is normally not built to defend the lead. The strength of this new team structure is that they look to have enough strength to sit on the front and chase down dangerous breaks and bring the race back together before the selection moments if required to do so.

Go son. We'll be there barracking for ya.

Excellent post! Almost makes me want to root for him. Almost!

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Excellent post! Almost makes me want to root for him. Almost!

So, what's stopping you?

 

[Bennyl]

Excellent post! Almost makes me want to root for him. Almost!

x2 great post!

 

[Angliru]

So, what's stopping you?

I have other riders that I'd prefer to win more than Evans like Samu, Gesink and Contador, even VDB2. There are other factors but I found the above post quite enlightening nonetheless.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Just a bit high strung. He'll complain and slap about but apologize shortly afterwards after he's had his hissy fit. Just ask Gesink and that Italian rider he accosted for disturbing Evans' pursuit of a dangerous escapee.

Ahhh, it is always Evans' fault. You don't have to like the guy but you certainly have a very strong hate for the guy and you make it very clear. Though when you possibly reply to this you will probably mock me like you usually do without just replying to the post.

 

[Angliru]

Ahhh, it is always Evans' fault. You don't have to like the guy but you certainly have a very strong hate for the guy and you make it very clear. Though when you possibly reply to this you will probably mock me like you usually do without just replying to the post.

Actually in both cases that I gave as examples they were Evans' fault. The Gesink incident he was out of position trying to squeeze by when there was no space for him and he blamed Gesink for cutting him off which Gesink obviously did not. The second one with Righi (sp), he (Righi) was within his rights to slow down the chase of the escapees. Of course Evans didn't see it that way.

 

[Archibald]

I had the pleasure of riding with Cadel very very early on in his riding career when he was still focussed on MTBs but was doing some criterium riding to sharpen him up. He never complained; never made excuses and he knew how to suffer like a dog and he was only 19 or thereabouts. He's also very quiet, very studious and very serious. He's a really smart guy who knows the strengths and weaknesses of his competitors better than just about anyone else.

My assessment, for what it is worth, is that unfortunately the guy will never win the TdF but he still has a shot at the podium which is no mean feat (he can still win a GT but only if one of the top candidates like Schleck or Contador doesn't show or fails due to injury or illness). He just doesn't have the pysiological make up to be the very best in week three. He can hold his own but struggles to make time up. I always thought he was tailor made for the 1 week races - he's have won the Dauphine if he'd prep'ed for it instead of coming straight off a tough altitude training camp.

WRT team support: his style, developed off the MTB experience has been constant threshold pace and effort on the selection moments of the climbs - invariably near the end of mountain top finishes. That's why he is normally labelled as boring and a wheel sucker. He wants a team that delivers him to the bottom of the last climb in the front and without expending any energy. From the bottom to the top of the last climb he is happy to be in the wheels and go it alone.

IN the past, this strategy has failed when he found himself with the GC lead early on. The team is normally not built to defend the lead. The strength of this new team structure is that they look to have enough strength to sit on the front and chase down dangerous breaks and bring the race back together before the selection moments if required to do so.

Go son. We'll be there barracking for ya.

thanks for the insight - good post.
I've always thought that he's quite content to just grind away on climbs sitting on the edge of his limit, because he always seems to be there when he's climbing.

I'm a bit like movingtarget in that I'd like to see him do this tour without a crash, illness or incident.

 

[movingtarget]

Actually in both cases that I gave as examples they were Evans' fault. The Gesink incident he was out of position trying to squeeze by when there was no space for him and he blamed Gesink for cutting him off which Gesink obviously did not. The second one with Righi (sp), he (Righi) was within his rights to slow down the chase of the escapees. Of course Evans didn't see it that way.

Well he would not be the first rider to get frustrated in those situations. The trouble is, both times it was caught on camera and he was wearing the world champs jersey. How often do these things happen off camera ? You could also say that the two falls in the TDF in 2008 and last year were not his fault. These incidents tend to even out even though the Evans detractors would beg to differ.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The Gesink one he wasn't wearing the worlds jersey, but he was wearing the race leader's jersey.

Evans' biggest problem is that he's highly strung, and has had a tendency to sulk, but he's good enough for it to be high profile when he does.

Ultimately, he's made some mistakes, mostly tactical, over the years that have cost him the palmarès his ability probably deserves. But whereas plenty of riders may whine and moan and sulk, they either have traditionally won enough to make up for that (eg Cavendish) or simply not been high profile or relevant enough for it to be really picked up on (eg latter day Hoste), whereas Evans' career has been marked by a number of high-profile near-misses, which draws attention to those shortcomings (and of course makes the frustrations and outbursts more likely, wholly justifiably) that wouldn't be paid to others.

 

[Angliru]

Well he would not be the first rider to get frustrated in those situations. The trouble is, both times it was caught on camera and he was wearing the world champs jersey. How often do these things happen off camera ? You could also say that the two falls in the TDF in 2008 and last year were not his fault. These incidents tend to even out even though the Evans detractors would beg to differ.

No one is saying that Evans is the only rider that has such reactions but as Libertine stated, his incidents always happen in very high profile events when the pressure is highest. You can argue all you want in support of Evans but compare his history to that of his rivals and his reads like a Monty Python episode. Search for such media or race drama involving Contador, VDB2, Gesink, Menchov, Sastre, Samu, Anton, Nibali and you find little. Collectively you'd still have Evans winning out in number of comically dramatic moments caught on camera.

Some riders strive on pressure and adversity and others seem to crumble. Evans tends to veer in the crumble direction. He's obviously very high strung, I don't think that can be argued considering his history. He still gets the results but it just seems in the grand tours, 3 weeks is just too long for him to hold it together. Of course he's still a great rider and for me a very entertaining one.

 

[AlejandroValverde]

When he(Evans) has to make up some time for his rivals he constantly tries to attack but we can see it only as some clumsy attempt.

When he doesn't have to, he sucks smoeone's wheel and rides passively.

But Evans is a GT rider, who probably deserves most winning any of GT. I would also point Levi or Klodi as such example.
Evans will need a stroke of luck to climb into the podium, without this he will land on 5-10 position

 

[No_Balls]

When he(Evans) has to make up some time for his rivals he constantly tries to attack but we can see it only as some clumsy attempt.

When he doesn't have to, he sucks smoeone's wheel and rides passively.

But Evans is a GT rider, who probably deserves most winning any of GT. I would also point Levi or Klodi as such example.
Evans will need a stroke of luck to climb into the podium, without this he will land on 5-10 position

No one "deserves" winning, specially not a Grand Tour. Either you win or you dont´t.

At least not when you really are a rider who is a jack of many trades and master of none and thinks he can wheelsuck himself to glory.

I know that Cadels fans has invented tons of reasons to WHY he didn´t won and yet those reasons wont stand next to the Cadel Evans chapter in history book of cycling.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I hate the way cadel rode his two near misses at the tour.
Follow and TT. I was glad he didn't win for those reasons.

Had he won.. say the giro last year, that would have been much better imo.

 

[blaxland]

Evans cannot win this years Tdf...As others have posted he should intentionly loose time in the first week,so he can go after the kom prize or hunt for stage victories.At best he may podium but no-one will beat contador this year.Andy has second place rapped up and Gesink is looking good for third.Just my thoughts..

 

[movingtarget]

No one "deserves" winning, specially not a Grand Tour. Either you win or you dont´t.

At least not when you really are a rider who is a jack of many trades and master of none and thinks he can wheelsuck himself to glory.

I know that Cadels fans has invented tons of reasons to WHY he didn´t won and yet those reasons wont stand next to the Cadel Evans chapter in history book of cycling.

Well actually, flying over the handlebars and spltting his helmet almost in half and breaking an elbow are facts, not invention. A mistake cost him the 2007 TDF and I have no idea where he would have finished last year without the fall but I am convinced that in the 2008 TDF, without the fall he would have won. That's my view, others can please themselves. As for the puncture in the Vuelta, I am unconvinced either way. That one is hard to say. I would just like to see him have an incident free ride and that way there is no guessing. It will be good enough or not but there is always hard luck stories in grand tours. This year I hope Evans can avoid it and just ride his best race. Armstrong always said he found it unbelievable that he won seven TDF's in a row without a serious fall I can only remember one fall in that time by Armstrong and that was going uphill. That is unbelievable compared to other riders. Although Armstrong's final TDF was a horror as far as incidents went.

 

[greenedge]

Evans will need a stroke of luck to climb into the podium, without this he will land on 5-10 position

How about Contador falling, having a strong team and being able to latch onto wheels as he can pwn people on stage 4???

 

[movingtarget]

Evans critics make me laugh. The better Evans ride, the more critical people are. He has ridden the perfect race so far but all one hears is negativity about what may happen in a week or two.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Evans critics make me laugh. The better Evans ride, the more critical people are. He has ridden the perfect race so far but all one hears is negativity about what may happen in a week or two.

only in response to ridiculous comments suggesting he is now the man to beat.

 

[Midnightfright]

only in response to ridiculous comments suggesting he is now the man to beat.

He is now the man to beat. For 6th place.

 

[Angliru]

Evans critics make me laugh. The better Evans ride, the more critical people are. He has ridden the perfect race so far but all one hears is negativity about what may happen in a week or two.

Could this possibly be based on his past history in grand tours where he falters in the 3rd week or suffers some type of malady (crash, injury, sickness, mechanical)? We can revel in his early good fortune but also look to his past performances in grand tours and anticipate what may happen.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The other problem is that this parcours is hugely backloaded. You can gain a minute or two in the first half, but lose an hour or two in the second.

Cadel looks to be in absolutely great shape - but can he hold that form for 3 weeks? Are others just looking to limit their losses for the first two in order to raise hell in the 3rd?

We simply do not know. It is premature to say that Evans is the man to beat because he's so far only shown that he's:
1) the best of those GC contenders that didn't crash on stage 1
2) the best of the GC contenders by the width of a front tyre on a climb that wasn't selective enough for Thor Hushovd or JJ Rojas to be dropped properly.

These 2 finishes have been absolutely Cadel Evans territory - the kind of thing he's always excelled at. Sometimes in the past his timing has been off (see Flèche Wallonne 2008) but he's always been one of the strongest in these races. Since the move to BMC I've really had to wonder why he kept doing Paris-Nice, since he's been 3rd and 1st in his 2 attempts at Tirreno-Adriatico, a race that absolutely to the core suits his style. I'm not ready to anoint him the favourite until he shows the same kind of form on something that really isn't Cadel Evans territory.