Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[Maxiton]

Cycling outside July! even if I was racing with tdf riders (Colin Lewis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Lewis) before Eddy started winning.
I am basing a lot of my opinions on the FACTS that stranger things have happened in the the toughest bike race on the planet than a guy winning who has placed well in it before, & is on form & has a good team. There are many riders who had it in the bag during the race, or were shoe ins before the race but looked very glum looking up at the podium from the crowd. Cadels got a lot of fight in him which is why he keeps on racing the July race, and any rider with the class to get 2nd in the tdf has got the class to go one better.
I did'nt put him as a dead cert!!!

I absolutely agree with this entire statement, especially the bolded part.

Rather than argue that Evans can only ever manage second or worse, it would be more accurate to say that only an extraordinarily gifted rider could have gotten second with basically no team support. I've criticised Evans in the past for staying with a weak team - but he's not with a weak team now!

Can he beat Contador, Schleck-the-baby-wonder, and the others? I guess we'll see, won't we? At least he has a fighting chance!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Rather than argue that Evans can only ever manage second or worse, it would be more accurate to say that only an extraordinarily gifted rider could have gotten second with basically no team support. I've criticised Evans in the past for staying with a weak team - but he's not with a weak team now!

in terms of mountain men cadel is no better at bmc then he was at lotto.

 

[karlboss]

Question for all, if you were advising Evans, what tactics would you offer for the win?

 

[craig1985]

I think Cadel will be in yellow tonight, although I don't necessarily think he will win the stage. Ideally I think that if Cadel does get yellow, and then to give it up, but with a couple of sprint stages that follow I don't think that will happen, although they could tell Garmin and HTC that they won't chase and let them do the work. Obviously it's too early for Cadel to be yellow, but he may not get this opportunity in the race again and it will be great publicity for BMC to be in yellow (and great for clothing stores as ACF buys a new set of underwear ).

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Question for all, if you were advising Evans, what tactics would you offer for the win?

Bullet Proof

 

[Dermie]

That rider is Cadel, twice he was the favorite or should have had it in the bag and threw it away, looking up at the top step of the podium when he could have been there.

It's just not going to happen for him, if he was 27 or 28 he may have a chance in the future but even then I doubt it. Only one rider in the last 80 years has converted two second places into a future tour win (Joop Zoetemelk), statistically winners don't go through more than one second place and then win. Add to that the age factor and his temperament and really he is relying on something akin to a perfect storm to win, 4-5 riders will have to fall over from here for that to happen.

If anything has changed in 80 years its the Tour de France & unless you are talking about the few greats, Armstrong, Merckx, Indurain et al, then riders do fall over & others stand up or are left standing. And the greats fall over eventually. If Cadel does not win, you can be sure he has put his heart honestly & totally into it.

 

[Maxiton]

Bullet Proof

Honestly, TLR, that's the advice I'd give, too. But I'm pretty sure Cadel (and Ochowicz) knows what time it is.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think Cadel will be in yellow tonight, although I don't necessarily think he will win the stage. Ideally I think that if Cadel does get yellow, and then to give it up, but with a couple of sprint stages that follow I don't think that will happen, although they could tell Garmin and HTC that they won't chase and let them do the work. Obviously it's too early for Cadel to be yellow, but he may not get this opportunity in the race again and it will be great publicity for BMC to be in yellow (and great for clothing stores as ACF buys a new set of underwear ).

Nah, the physio gets more money as my 'fist pumping' during the first two stages put my arm out on each occasion.

 

[Midnightfright]

In 2009, AC took 63 seconds out of AS at Arcalis and Verbier. If he can do the same in 2011, he will only have to make up roughly 40 seconds in the TT. Definitely doable.

Even with the Giro effort, I don't think AC will have his 2010 form, and who knows what kind of form AS is in? People expect him to match his form from last year, and he might have peaked correctly again this year, but that is still to be determined.

I think the problem is if either of Contador or Schleck are in the form of last year even if Contador is in any sort of form he will do very well to win. Theres a lot of talk on wether or not he will be able to to anything with his 1 minute 40 on Albie in the mountains but even more of a worry is that's only 10 seconds on baby Schleck. I think things would really need to go his way to beat both but its not out the question and he should certainly be confident in a podium.

 

[Maxiton]

in terms of mountain men cadel is no better at bmc then he was at lotto.

Perhaps you are right. We will see.

 

[Dermie]

Hey Dermie... now don't go introducing FACTS to these here forums.. lightning will strike you down

Nice BIO BTW. Always interesting to have ex-riders posting.

Hey Spider, not my BIO but that of a member of a club I used to belong to as a youngster, It hurt racing with him, in fact racing with him did not last very long, usually only the first few minutes of a race it one was lucky.

 

[icefire]

Andys screwed then as well.

Not yet. As Zoetemelk did, he can win if AC doesn't finish

 

[Parrulo]

Cycling outside July! even if I was racing with tdf riders (Colin Lewis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colin_Lewis) before Eddy started winning.
I am basing a lot of my opinions on the FACTS that stranger things have happened in the the toughest bike race on the planet than a guy winning who has placed well in it before, & is on form & has a good team. There are many riders who had it in the bag during the race, or were shoe ins before the race but looked very glum looking up at the podium from the crowd. Cadels got a lot of fight in him which is why he keeps on racing the July race, and any rider with the class to get 2nd in the tdf has got the class to go one better.
I did'nt put him as a dead cert!!!

facts . . . . hmmmm

tour 2007
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto DSC 91h00'26" 600
2. [AUS] EVANS Cadel PRL 23" 460

tour 2008
1. [ESP] SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CSC 87h52'52" 600
2. [AUS] EVANS Cadel SIL 58" 460

tour 2009
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 85h48'35" 600
. [AUS] EVANS Cadel SIL 45'24" 51

tour 2010
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 91h58'48" 600
26. [AUS] EVANS Cadel BMC 50'27" 57

weird that looks like some1 on his decline in terms of GT riding. when was the last time evans did anything remotely impressive on the mountains? and i mean real mountains not hills. on the hills he is one of the best of the world but on the big mountains he never really impressed any1 not even on his best years when all he did was try to hang to some1 else's wheel. btw should i remind you mighty evans being dropped by bottle in briançon in 2007 when he "should" have won the tour instead of cheating alberto according to many aussies

i can't wait for when he cracks when on one of the first 2 MTF and all this aussies and their hyping leave the forum so we can have some peace again.

p.s. guess what, i don't care who have you ridden with or how old you are at the end of the day all you say is "tour toughest race in the world" blah blah blah blah and that's the usual talk of july fans. have you even seen this year's giro parcours? they were just a little bit harder then the tour parcours. but just a little bit

 

[Dermie]

Hmmm funny I rode some of the Giro parcours a couple of weeks ago on a 3,000 km ride in Italy between mid May & mid June this year. The Mt Etna stage, Vesuvius, the Spilimbergo start!!!
Italy is very, very hilly from Palermo where I started to the Dolomites, the little 48 hairpin climb near Bolsano & on to Lake Como, where I finished.
One of the Italian riders in his first TDF reckoned the Giro was a ***** in comparison, I wouldn,nt have thought so but the pace is very different it seems. I also found the same thing (hilly) in different regions of Italy on a cycling trip there 3 years ago. I also rode up a hill on another trip in Italy in the 80,s, that is apparently the steepest hill in Italy, can,t remember its name might have got hypoxic & forgotten.
You missed my sarcasm about facts, fact is very often in the TDF things can go very astray & facts mean nothing.

 

[Spider1964]

Fact... Cadel just kicked ****!!

 

[c&cfan]

Fact... Cadel just kicked ****!!

fact, he will be happy for 2 hours.
another fact, after 2 hours he is going to dream about alberto.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The last time Evans did something 'remotely impressive' in the real mountains was when he was 2nd to Monte Zoncolán last year. That's not too bad at all.

As for the 63 seconds AC took on AS - that's on Arcalis (one of the worst MTFs ever) and Verbier (not very long). Luz Ardiden, Plateau de Beille, Galibier and Alpe d'Huez offer the chance to gain much more time than that if form is equal to 2009 levels.

 

[Ragerod]

facts . . . . hmmmm

tour 2007
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto DSC 91h00'26" 600
2. [AUS] EVANS Cadel PRL 23" 460

tour 2008
1. [ESP] SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CSC 87h52'52" 600
2. [AUS] EVANS Cadel SIL 58" 460

tour 2009
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 85h48'35" 600
. [AUS] EVANS Cadel SIL 45'24" 51

tour 2010
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 91h58'48" 600
26. [AUS] EVANS Cadel BMC 50'27" 57

weird that looks like some1 on his decline in terms of GT riding. when was the last time evans did anything remotely impressive on the mountains? and i mean real mountains not hills. on the hills he is one of the best of the world but on the big mountains he never really impressed any1 not even on his best years when all he did was try to hang to some1 else's wheel. btw should i remind you mighty evans being dropped by bottle in briançon in 2007 when he "should" have won the tour instead of cheating alberto according to many aussies

It may be the beginning of a trend but at the moment his 2010 performance is an anomaly which can be attributed to a crash earlier in the race. A 2010 where he won Fleche Wallonne, wore both the Maglia Rosa and Maillot Jeune and won the Points competition in the Giro can hardly be considered a year of decline.

He's never been the best climber but, last year's tour aside, has always been one of the top 5 or 10 and being good at time-trials means he'll be hard to beat.

 

[Cimber]

Cadel has been awesome so far. However, I do fear he will lose alot of time to the likes of COntador and Schleck in the real mountains. But if he can keep them with 2-3mins by the last TT he has a real chance.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

It may be the beginning of a trend but at the moment his 2010 performance is an anomaly which can be attributed to a crash earlier in the race. A 2010 where he won Fleche Wallonne, wore both the Maglia Rosa and Maillot Jeune and won the Points competition in the Giro can hardly be considered a year of decline.

He's never been the best climber but, last year's tour aside, has always been one of the top 5 or 10 and being good at time-trials means he'll be hard to beat.

2009 Tour he was woeful, but in 2010 he had the mitigating factor of the Giro. In 2009 he'd been preparing for the Tour, and he made up for it with a pretty good Vuelta.

 

[red_flanders]

It's shaping up to be an excellent race. I fear Schleck will not be there, which will make it less interesting, but glad it's not going to be a battle between AC and AS, 'cause that was just a little to passive-aggressive for my liking.

This is a HEAVY course. I don't think Cadel is going to survive.

 

[just some guy]

Cadel has been awesome so far. However, I do fear he will lose alot of time to the likes of COntador and Schleck in the real mountains. But if he can keep them with 2-3mins by the last TT he has a real chance.

There is no way Evans can take 2-3 minutes out of Contador in a ITT. Andy maybe.

Contador is a better ITT at the end of a 3 week tour then everyone except fabian and maybe tony

 

[Merckx index]

Evans' win today was, I believe, his second career TDF stage victory. The first was an ITT back in 2007, but he wasn't awarded it until several days later, when Vino tested positive.

I could see Evans winning his first TDF this year in the same way.

 

[Ragerod]

2009 Tour he was woeful, but in 2010 he had the mitigating factor of the Giro. In 2009 he'd been preparing for the Tour, and he made up for it with a pretty good Vuelta.

I forgot about his forgettable 2009 Tour. At the time I thought there was more to it than simply poor form but then he isn't the first rider to perform well at the Dauphine only to falter in the Tour. Despite his poor showing, 2009 was a pretty good year for Evans.

 

[red_flanders]

Evans' win today was, I believe, his second career TDF stage victory. The first was an ITT back in 2007, but he wasn't awarded it until several days later, when Vino tested positive.

I believe you are correct. Today then is his first road win and first real win.

I could see Evans winning his first TDF this year in the same way.

I believe you are incorrect.

We'll see. He looks strong.