Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[FlyingPortagee]

I like Cadel and would certainly like to see him win a tour or two, but he hasen't shown so far that he can take the pressure. Hopefully this year he can bring the heat.

 

[Boeing]

I like Cadel and would certainly like to see him win a tour or two, but he hasen't shown so far that he can take the pressure. Hopefully this year he can bring the heat.

How so?

the thing he cant handle is accelerations in the mountains and surging tempo on the biggest climbs.

to win a tour one has to attack or follow the attack and he cant. it is physical not mental

 

[greenedge]

Go Evans. Hopefully you can keep your gap on Contador. It's between you and the other perenial runner up who is "a piece of Cake ". You can win. He is a true legend and patron of the peleton.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Go Evans. Hopefully you can keep your gap on Contador. It's between you and the other perenial runner up who is "a piece of Cake ". You can win

uhhhf.

yeah ok.

AC is still within striking distance. If he truly has recover (I don't think he has). He'll be in front of evans after stage 14.

Gesink is a few seconds behind.
JVDB isn't far behind.
Wiggo and the schack boys aren't far.

2 stages are gone, let us not jump to conclusions.

 

[theyoungest]

Go Evans. Hopefully you can keep your gap on Contador. It's between you and the other perenial runner up who is "a piece of Cake ". You can win. He is a true legend and patron of the peleton.

Cadel Evans is the patron of the peloton? Please, let the Pyrenees arrive, so the Aussies will come to their senses again.

 

[Midnightfright]

Cadel Evans is the patron of the peloton? Please, let the Pyrenees arrive, so the Aussies will come to their senses again.

to be fair the majority of the aussies are being reasonable and realistic. Plus he has several seconds advantage over all his GC rivals there's no way they will make that back in the pyrenees.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

to be fair the majority of the aussies are being reasonable and realistic. Plus he has several seconds advantage over all his GC rivals there's no way they will make that back in the pyrenees.

no he doesn't. Unless AC and Samu = all his GC rivals.

I would be very surprised if he didn't lose crucial time to the likes of Schleck and even Gesink.

Read Libertine's post regarding his climbing why.

I really cannot wait for the pyrenees either.

 

[Spider1964]

uhhhf.

yeah ok.

AC is still within striking distance. If he truly has recover (I don't think he has). He'll be in front of evans after stage 14.

Gesink is a few seconds behind.
JVDB isn't far behind.
Wiggo and the schack boys aren't far.

2 stages are gone, let us not jump to conclusions.

Agree, an in form and recovered AC will put minutes into Cuddles in the mountains, but Gesink, JVDB, Wiggens are not the most attacking riders in the peloton.... and as for the Shack Non-Attackers... Pfft.

Long way to go, but Cuddles, through a bit of luck and good riding (TTT was impressive from him (esp) and the team) is in a good position after 2 stages and still on track for a podium, at best. Might not be the top position, but...who knows?

Lets wait until after stage 12 until conclusions are jumped... by then Cuddles state of mind may be different? Hopefully he's not showing an over-protective streak towards canines by then?

 

[auscyclefan94]

I love reading all these posts. May I remind you all that many of you who doubted Cadel in 2009 as being a old hack and past it yet he delivers and becomes a World Champion. Same with the TTT. Don't underestimate Cadel. The guy has a lot of heart, he is fresh, he is happy, he is relaxed, and he has a team that can do a good job even if they aren't the strongest. Don't write him off.

 

[swuzzlebubble]

Cadel is a chance until something goes wrong.
So far, so good.

So far, so good.

 

[theyoungest]

no he doesn't. Unless AC and Samu = all his GC rivals.

I would be very surprised if he didn't lose crucial time to the likes of Schleck and even Gesink.

Read Libertine's post regarding his climbing why.

I really cannot wait for the pyrenees either.

Mr. Midnightfright was just kidding. Do I have to explain Aussie humor to you?

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Mr. Midnightfright was just kidding. Do I have to explain Aussie humor to you?

uhhf i can't believe I didn't recognize the sarcasm
Midnightfright apologies...

@ acf no one argues he can do it in the classics. I've never seen him ring it in the mountains tho..

 

[Midnightfright]

uhhf i can't believe I didn't recognize the sarcasm
Midnightfright apologies...

@ acf no one argues he can do it in the classics. I've never seen him ring it in the mountains tho..

ha ha no problem. Your normally very good at picking it out, I guess there its harder to pick out when people are joking at the moment.

 

[Archibald]

the thing he cant handle is accelerations in the mountains and surging tempo on the biggest climbs.

to win a tour one has to attack or follow the attack and he cant. it is physical not mental

if there was a mid-tour ITT it would help his chances, but I just don't think he can limit the damage enough in the mountains

 

[Spine Concept]

Agree, an in form and recovered AC will put minutes into Cuddles in the mountains, but Gesink, JVDB, Wiggens are not the most attacking riders in the peloton.... and as for the Shack Non-Attackers... Pfft

As the Dauphine would attest to, Gesink and VDB2 don't need to attack per se to drop Evans. Cadel was having a lot of trouble just holding on to the tempo set by his rivals, including Gesink and VDB2. I'm well aware of the fact that he might not have been in top form, however, by that logic neither were his rivals. Good luck to him and BMC though, if someone deserves it based on their career it's got to be him.

 

[Jan the Man]

Cadel looks in pretty good shape right now.

I think a podium is very realistic if he keeps this shape to Paris.

A win? No way- I would be astounded if he hung with Schlecklet and Contador

 

[Spine Concept]

Cadel looks in pretty good shape right now.

I think a podium is very realistic if he keeps this shape to Paris.

A win? No way- I would be astounded if he hung with Schlecklet and Contador

A podium spot is definitely within the realms of possibility. It all depends on how he fares in the mountains, which, judged by the Dauphine, does not bode well. It might not be fair to use a sole parameter to gauge his chances though, which is a sentiment many Evans fans will echo I reckon.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

I love reading all these posts. May I remind you all that many of you who doubted Cadel in 2009 as being a old hack and past it yet he delivers and becomes a World Champion. Same with the TTT. Don't underestimate Cadel. The guy has a lot of heart, he is fresh, he is happy, he is relaxed, and he has a team that can do a good job even if they aren't the strongest. Don't write him off.

evans got lucky the wind at the final part was gone. otherwise he'd be around saxo's time at best. still these 20 seconds will be nothing once the mountains are hit.

 

[Berzin]

May I remind you all that many of you who doubted Cadel in 2009 as being a old hack and past it yet he delivers and becomes a World Champion. Same with the TTT.

Don't underestimate Cadel. The guy has a lot of heart, he is fresh, he is happy, he is relaxed, and he has a team that can do a good job even if they aren't the strongest. Don't write him off.

No one is writing him off. We are just realistic about his chances given his talent (overrated) and his previous performances (conservative wheel sucking when not crashing).

A lot of people are jumping up and down about how Contador has to attack if he wants to win, but that doesn't exactly play into the hands of his rivals, who have never been able to drop him, never been able to stay with him when he attacks (save for Andy Schleck) and can't beat him in an individual time trial.

I see lots of guys who are good at wheel sucking and maintaining a good enough tempo not to get dropped to hard in the mountains, guys who are always thinking of preserving their strength for the next day and the next day after that.

Contador isn't going to ride like that. Evans will because he isn't strong enough to attack unless it's the final meters of a mountain finish like he always does, when it's too late. A rider who isn't scared to pull of a daring and strong attack will win this race. That will NOT be Cadel Evans.

 

[movingtarget]

evans got lucky the wind at the final part was gone. otherwise he'd be around saxo's time at best. still these 20 seconds will be nothing once the mountains are hit.

The majority of the wind comes from this forum. Anyone with half a brain knows that Evans will lose time to Contador. Contador has to make up over one and a half minutes. If he keeps taking time out of Evans but can't shake off Schleck it comes down to the time trial. Contador would have to do the ride of his life to make up 90 seconds on Schleck. He could not put 90 seconds into Schleck last year and this year he has the Giro in his legs also. Schleck would have to do a Rasmussen to lose the race. Evans can afford to lose time to Contador on some stages but also has to worry about losing time to Schleck so it will be difficult. No one seems to consider that it is also possible for Schleck or Contador to have a bad day which Gesink, Evans and co would be hoping for. I doubt that Contador will dominate every mountain stage as some people seem to think and if he keeps dragging Schleck along with him I don't think he can win. He is a very good time triallist but he is not Cancellara. I can't see a Leipheimer/Cunego Tour De Suisse scenario developing in the TT.

 

[Archibald]

The majority of the wind comes from this forum. Anyone with half a brain knows that Evans will lose time to Contador. Contador has to make up over one and a half minutes. If he keeps taking time out of Evans but can't shake off Schleck it comes down to the time trial. Contador would have to do the ride of his life to make up 90 seconds on Schleck. He could not put 90 seconds into Schleck last year and this year he has the Giro in his legs also. Schleck would have to do a Rasmussen to lose the race. Evans can afford to lose time to Contador on some stages but also has to worry about losing time to Schleck so it will be difficult. No one seems to consider that it is also possible for Schleck or Contador to have a bad day which Gesink, Evans and co would be hoping for. I doubt that Contador will dominate every mountain stage as some people seem to think and if he keeps dragging Schleck along with him I don't think he can win. He is a very good time triallist but he is not Cancellara. I can't see a Leipheimer/Cunego Tour De Suisse scenario developing in the TT.

this is the sort of thing that is the 'luck' Evans needs - the likes of Schleck and/or Contador having a day like LA last year
you know it can happen (like the crash in stage 1), but you don't sit there pinning your hopes on it...

 

[rzombie1988]

this is the sort of thing that is the 'luck' Evans needs - the likes of Schleck and/or Contador having a day like LA last year
you know it can happen (like the crash in stage 1), but you don't sit there pinning your hopes on it...

It's hard to imagine Contador having a real bad day because he has yet to have one. I've never seen him lose above 20 seconds without a crash. Even if Contador miraculously has a bad day, the Schlecks will have to have one too. Cadel isn't that lucky. Stage 1 is probably the worst day I've seen yet for Contador.

This thread has made me think Andy has a shot at winning this thing, not Cadel. The question is - Can Andy lose 90+ seconds to Contador on a TT or not? I figure Andy can lose a minute, but I don't think he will lose much more than that.

 

[Parrulo]

It's hard to imagine Contador having a real bad day because he has yet to have one. I've never seen him lose above 20 seconds without a crash. Even if Contador miraculously has a bad day, the Schlecks will have to have one too. Cadel isn't that lucky. Stage 1 is probably the worst day I've seen yet for Contador.

This thread has made me think Andy has a shot at winning this thing, not Cadel. The question is - Can Andy lose 90+ seconds to Contador on a TT or not? I figure Andy can lose a minute, but I don't think he will lose much more than that.

you clearly never watched paris nice. . . .

 

[No_Balls]

you clearly never watched paris nice. . . .

He forgot the dinner at that moment. Im sure he will not forgot his steak come the mountains

 

[Zoncolan]

I for one would like to see Cuddles podium. However, a top 5 is the most he can hope for with this parcours IMHO>