Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[Cerberus]

I have to say I did expect Evans to be up there because he's shown the last 2 years he has quite a punch on short hills. That being said it does seem Evans is on good form and I'm happy for him and his fans.

However I don't see him beating Andy or Alberto unless something serious happens to them. But if he can keep the form he appears to have right now going he's a serious contender for the final podium place, which would be a pretty good showing.

Exactly, While I don't think Evans winning the Tour would exactly be "sign of the apocalypse" unlikely" Evans will need a lot more than 1,17 to beat Contador, barring tiredness from the Giro and he has taken no time on Andy. What matters most is probably his gain compared to Sanchez in the contest for third.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Uhm, how many times did Cadel Evans gain time early in a GT and even got leader jerseys? More than often.

So it's not the shoe that's on the other foot, it's the shoe on the same foot again. Question is wether he will blow it again in the 2nd/3rd week or not

The last 3 GTs he entered, in fact -

Vuelta 2009, stage 8 (ahead from prologue and Valencia ITT, took it on Alto de Aitana, lost it via time bonuses on Xorret de Catí the next day)

Giro 2010, stage 2 (good prologue then decent flat stage performance after Sky train drove into a fence, lost it the next day due to crashes and echelons)

Tour 2010, stage 8 (decent prologue plus good cobbled performance, followed by conservative racing on Morzine put him in yellow, then he lost it the next day after crashing, injuring himself and cracking... but Cadel fans are deluding themselves if they think he would have defended it on the Col de la Madeleine anyway).


He's also held the leader's jersey:
Tour 2008, stage 10 (good uphill sprint in Plumelec very much like yesterday, then good ITT in Cholet, meant it didn't matter that he couldn't keep up with the Saunier Duval duo, Fränk Schleck or Kohl on Hautacam. Held it for four flat stages, then lost it on the very next major obstacle in Prato Nervoso).

I could mention the 2002 Giro, but since he wasn't a GT contender there but a wet-behind-the-ears up-and-comer and it was an awesome performance for him to be there, we shouldn't count that performance on Passo Coè against him at all.

 

[mulletCobra]

 

[nvpacchi]

This is almost worse than people hyping up Valverde for overall victory in 2008 after his stage 1 victory.

Evans will fail just as bad as Piti did

 

[c&cfan]

This is almost worse than people hyping up Valverde for overall victory in 2008 after his stage 1 victory.

Evans will fail just as bad as Piti did

no... that would've been true if you were talking about phil gil, evans still didnt won a stage.

 

[cyclestationgiuseppe]

Current Odds

04 Jul. 11:35
2011 General Classification
Andy Schleck 5/4
Alberto Contador 6/4
Cadel Evans 10/1
Bradley Wiggins 18/1
Robert Gesink 25/1

The oddsmakers now have AS as a slight favorite over Contador. These guys are pros at setting odds. They do not do it to LOSE money.

Cadel will be lucky to Podium.
I still think Contador will win (unfortunately)
It will look a lot like last years podium

AC
AS
and either Gesink or Frank S for 3rd.

 

[rzombie1988]

I don't see Cadel winning it. Even if Contador totally blows it which is almost impossible, he still has to contend with Andy, Frank and Gesink and he doesn't have the mountain skills for that.

 

[ManInFull]

I don't see Cadel winning it. Even if Contador totally blows it which is almost impossible, he still has to contend with Andy, Frank and Gesink and he doesn't have the mountain skills for that.

I would rather see Cadel than that toothy Baby Schleck winning it. I do hope that AC attacks like a caged animal when the race reaches the mountains.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

2006 tour de france prologue rujano rode with 46.8 km/h. he was 48 kg and his bike was let's say 7 kg, is 575 watt is 11.9 watt per kg weight!

Oh dear...

 

[Irish2009]

Wouldnt it be a great Tour if Contador or the Schleck's didnt win it. The only reason i dont want Contador to win is due to the cloud hanging over him...and the Schlecks, well the more I see of them the more i grow to dislike them. Evans on the other hand would be a good Tour winner.

 

[goggalor]

Even with this great start I don't see Evans coming close to winning. I'd very much like him to, but being realistic I just don't think he's a good enough climber these days and I don't think he'll get through these three weeks without a bad day. But he's shown again what an excellent week long stage racer he is. Some of the turns he took in the TTT today were ridiculous.

 

[delbified]

without the burden of a heavy spring racing schedule that Lotto's inept management ridiculously imposed on him, evans should be better this year in the 2nd and 3rd weeks of the Tour. if he stays on his bike, that should also boost his performance, relative to past years. although keeping up with andy and Contador in the hills is a big ask, he has a realistic chance.

 

[Martin318is]

04 Jul. 11:35
2011 General Classification
Andy Schleck 5/4
Alberto Contador 6/4
Cadel Evans 10/1
Bradley Wiggins 18/1
Robert Gesink 25/1

The oddsmakers now have AS as a slight favorite over Contador. These guys are pros at setting odds. They do not do it to LOSE money.

With respect, the bookies haven't swept the entire course to ensure no random punctures stuff things up. Likewise roadside spectators, etc.

I agree though that they have spent the most time and effort on working all this out - just reminding people that odds are not actually strong predictions.

 

[Mambo95]

04 Jul. 11:35
2011 General Classification
Andy Schleck 5/4
Alberto Contador 6/4
Cadel Evans 10/1
Bradley Wiggins 18/1
Robert Gesink 25/1

The oddsmakers now have AS as a slight favorite over Contador. These guys are pros at setting odds. They do not do it to LOSE money.

'Guys' don't set the odds. The only set the initial market prices, the rest is done by computers according to what money is being bet. Bookies make a profit because they don't have opinions, just sophisticated mathematical models.

 

[K-0tic]

I don't see Cadel winning it. Even if Contador totally blows it which is almost impossible, he still has to contend with Andy, Frank and Gesink and he doesn't have the mountain skills for that.

And? I still don't see Gesink or Frank Schleck beating Cadel so easy. Evans is tough, experienced and he improved over the past 2 years. I'm not saying he's gonna win because AS and AC are much better uphill but he's got a good chance.

 

[M Sport]

'Guys' don't set the odds. The only set the initial market prices, the rest is done by computers according to what money is being bet. Bookies make a profit because they don't have opinions, just sophisticated mathematical models.

It depends on the sport. Horse racing is heavily computer modelled but everything is still checked buy a human. Other sports are more heavily influenced by humans i.e. cycling, F1, rugby, etc.

When Contador lost time on Saturday it wasn't a computer program deciding on the new odds based on betting trends, it would have been a human using the modelling and historical stage data available.

If you see Contador take a chunk of time out of everyone on the first mountain finish you will quickly see the odds revert back to where they were near the start.

 

[the vagabond]

Evans will take yellow, defend through the first couple mountain stages, have his subliminal nightmare about his spectacular crack in his first big Giro, and then blow. He is one tough SOB, and definitely not a quitter, but he just doesn't have the goods, unfortunately.

 

[cyclestationgiuseppe]

'Guys' don't set the odds. The only set the initial market prices, the rest is done by computers according to what money is being bet. Bookies make a profit because they don't have opinions, just sophisticated mathematical models.

However it is done (Ia m not a bookmaker so all I know is the odds usually favor the person taking the bet)
Cadel is clearly not the favorite at 10 to 1 it is a good bet if you like Cadel but 10 to 1 are not good odds. I would take 4-1 that he gets third.
Win/Place/Show.....he just might show!

 

[Dermie]

Cuddles can do it!!!

We are now getting some really good posts.
Betting odds are just odds based on past performances, computer modeled or whatever, they can only be based on the past. Cadel is a new racer mentally & possibly physically with his new training regime/pre tour build up, since his rainbow stripes. He has a really good new team, maybe not great (we'll see in Paris) but damn good. The TTT added to that conclusion, and yes there are hills to come. But he & I feel his team has targeted the tour for him, his lead up has been different & looked to me to be very good, perhaps not unlike Lances buildups to some of his tour wins.
I do not know much about Jim Ochowitch but he appears a lot of experience. So there are lots of new & carefully managed programs in place for Cadel & at the moment he has luck on his side (or good teamwork/unlike Contador) so if these things go well who knows.
There have been plenty of Tours where the fav has dropped by the way side along the torturous route to the Champs Elysée.

 

[Jericho]

One one hand, the first two stages went as well as could be expected for Cadel. And that's nothing to sneeze at given how it went for others, most notably Contador and Samu.

However, it's not like he's gained much or his performance is a great surprise. Many thought Stage 1 suited him well, and he did gain a whole 3 seconds. But most of the main contenders are still there. And while the TTT went better than expected for BMC, it's again only a matter of seconds. The real difference will come in the mountains. That's where Cadel will show whether or not this is his year (even if just to podium)

 

[rzombie1988]

And? I still don't see Gesink or Frank Schleck beating Cadel so easy. Evans is tough, experienced and he improved over the past 2 years. I'm not saying he's gonna win because AS and AC are much better uphill but he's got a good chance.

I said Frank because atleast he can hang for most of the long climbs with Contador. Granted he might not last the whole way and definitely won't overtake anyone, but he can atleast be within close distance. Andy will keep him by his side until Contador's attacks force him not to. Therefore, he's going to end up ahead of Cadel. I don't think he can lose as much in TT's to Cadel as he can gain on Cadel in the mountains. I think Frank is really being underestimated by everyone this year. Andy's going to take good care of him.

Gesink looked good on the Dauphine mountains and attacked some. Remember, he did finish better on two mountains in the Dauphine then Cadel did. I'm expecting him to be ahead of Cadel in the mountains again.

Cadel is just not good on the long climbs. I had a marathon session earlier this year with older TdF's and I could pinpoint exactly when Cadel gets dropped. I said in another thread that if Cadel can limit his losses in the mountains and come up big in the TT he might have a shot, but I just don't have the faith in him come mountain time.

 

[danjo007]

This is atleast going to be good to watch - because Cadel has good form, Andy does not (no matter what he tries to pretend) Radioshack made him look stupid.
frank couldnt even do a turn by 9km into the TT, atleast andy did a few more kms before he too sat on.
contador will take the time back, but at what cost?

id be watching kloden more closely too, a big danger for the win.

 

[Dermie]

I agree with most of what you say but with a different take.
The first stage indicated that Cadel has a better team than other years as opposed to, and in particular, Contador's team's lack of attention (so close to the end of a particularly intense stage).
The TTT went as well as they had planned & he rode the TTT very well. So he is riding TT's well, he has a good team, this year he has had good luck (or good team work) the good teamwork should stay with him. He has had problems in the past in the mountains because of lack of team, note the year he got done by Sastre, & he got second to Contador by only 30 or so secs that year. So whilst I agree with you, He is ticking the boxes all the way at the moment.

 

[Damiano Machiavelli]

Initial odds are more about predictions for how people will bet than predictions about who will win. As the bets come in, the odds are adjusted so that the bookmaker will make a profit no matter what the outcome of the contest. So the odds are ultimately the collective expectations of all the betters, not who the bookie thinks will win.

This can be used to the betters advantage when betting with bookies who serve a regional market. The punters will bet on the home town hero, distorting the odds away from what the odds should be if they were based on sporting merit.

 

[Dermie]

Note*** That reply was to #68 Today, 12:47
Jericho
Junior Member Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 10



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

One one hand, the first two stages went as well as could be expected for Cadel. And that's nothing to sneeze at given how it went for others, most notably Contador and Samu.

However, it's not like he's gained much or his performance is a great surprise. Many thought Stage 1 suited him well, and he did gain a whole 3 seconds. But most of the main contenders are still there. And while the TTT went better than expected for BMC, it's again only a matter of seconds. The real difference will come in the mountains. That's where Cadel will show whether or not this is his year (even if just to podium)