Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[ronron]

Cadel the crusher

He's not a player he just crushes a lot

 

[Oldman]

I believe you are correct. Today then is his first road win and first real win.



I believe you are incorrect.

I just checked into this fan central. Good to see an even tempered evaluation prevailing. Also, if Cadel ends up with the jersey to defend; how well will he and his team manage that? It's a totally different race to follow a contender as opposed to defending against pure climbers on really steep hills.

 

[Angliru]

Evans' win today was, I believe, his second career TDF stage victory. The first was an ITT back in 2007, but he wasn't awarded it until several days later, when Vino tested positive.

I could see Evans winning his first TDF this year in the same way.

You're in for a disappointment then, I'm afraid to say. I don't see Evans holding his own enough in the mountains to be able to make it all up in the ITT. I think he can podium though, especially with Samu having lost time already.

 

[kurtinsc]

facts . . . . hmmmm

tour 2007
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto DSC 91h00'26" 600
2. [AUS] EVANS Cadel PRL 23" 460

tour 2008
1. [ESP] SASTRE CANDIL Carlos CSC 87h52'52" 600
2. [AUS] EVANS Cadel SIL 58" 460

tour 2009
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 85h48'35" 600
. [AUS] EVANS Cadel SIL 45'24" 51

tour 2010
1. [ESP] CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto AST 91h58'48" 600
26. [AUS] EVANS Cadel BMC 50'27" 57

weird that looks like some1 on his decline in terms of GT riding. when was the last time evans did anything remotely impressive on the mountains? and i mean real mountains not hills. on the hills he is one of the best of the world but on the big mountains he never really impressed any1 not even on his best years when all he did was try to hang to some1 else's wheel. btw should i remind you mighty evans being dropped by bottle in briançon in 2007 when he "should" have won the tour instead of cheating alberto according to many aussies

i can't wait for when he cracks when on one of the first 2 MTF and all this aussies and their hyping leave the forum so we can have some peace again.

p.s. guess what, i don't care who have you ridden with or how old you are at the end of the day all you say is "tour toughest race in the world" blah blah blah blah and that's the usual talk of july fans. have you even seen this year's giro parcours? they were just a little bit harder then the tour parcours. but just a little bit

In the Tour? You're probably looking at 2008.

In a GT? 2010 Giro. He pretty much climbed with the leaders except for 1 stage. He was 3:27 down in the overall and lost 3:06 at Aprica. He also climbed pretty darn well at the 2009 Vuelta where he finished 3rd overall by 1:32 when he lost 1:08 on the Sierra Nevada (when he punctured and had issues with the neutral service car).

He has bad days. But when he's on he does climb with the heads of state. Not better then them... but with them. Of course one big screw up stage will lose what room he's gained so far.

 

[Midnightfright]

In the Tour? You're probably looking at 2008.

In a GT? 2010 Giro. He pretty much climbed with the leaders except for 1 stage. He was 3:27 down in the overall and lost 3:06 at Aprica. He also climbed pretty darn well at the 2009 Vuelta where he finished 3rd overall by 1:32 when he lost 1:08 on the Sierra Nevada (when he punctured and had issues with the neutral service car).

He has bad days. But when he's on he does climb with the heads of state. Not better then them... but with them. Of course one big screw up stage will lose what room he's gained so far.

He may be able to climb with most of the other GC guys on a good day but not Andy schleck and certainly not contador

 

[Archibald]

He may be able to climb with most of the other GC guys on a good day but not Andy schleck and certainly not contador

he will need to work together with the others to limit their losses - Samu, Gesink, Wiggans, etc...

 

[kurtinsc]

He may be able to climb with most of the other GC guys on a good day but not Andy schleck and certainly not contador

Both have questions regarding their form to be honest. Andy does't seem to be building up to where he should be at this point... and the worry with Contador is that he'll fade due to having a Giro in his legs toward the end of the race.

At their peaks, both Andy and Alberto can drop Evans on big climbs. But with Andy and Alberto at less then their peaks for parts of the race, Contador with a deficit of 1:41 and Andy with a time trial deficit... well it's gone from impossible to merely improbable.

In my mind, Evans' biggest weakness isn't his climbing... it's the fact he tries to avoid being dropped for too long. When faced with a superior climber on a long climb, he tries to hold on until he's completely in the red... then bonks totally (often getting passed by lesser climbers who paced themselves better). If he lets go and rides his own speed, it seems like he'd likely be able to turn losses of 2 minutes on some big climbs into losses of 45 seconds.

I don't know if he'll be able to do that though.

 

[Parrulo]

In the Tour? You're probably looking at 2008.

In a GT? 2010 Giro. He pretty much climbed with the leaders except for 1 stage. He was 3:27 down in the overall and lost 3:06 at Aprica. He also climbed pretty darn well at the 2009 Vuelta where he finished 3rd overall by 1:32 when he lost 1:08 on the Sierra Nevada (when he punctured and had issues with the neutral service car).

He has bad days. But when he's on he does climb with the heads of state. Not better then them... but with them. Of course one big screw up stage will lose what room he's gained so far.

hanging around isn't being impressive. evans also got dropped on monte grappa in the 2010 giro. so he got dropped on: monte grappa by nibali basso and scarponi, zoncolan by basso and then almost caught by scarponi even tho he had a big advantage on him at the time basso left him behind, then on the mortirolo by the same trio as in monte grappa. he then gainned some time on the gavia stage because basso nibali and scarponi couldn't be bothered to go after him as they already had a more then comfortable lead.

thats not a performance that suggests he can keep up with contador or limit his losses to less then 1 and a half minutes over the mountains

 

[Oldman]

Both have questions regarding their form to be honest. Andy does't seem to be building up to where he should be at this point... and the worry with Contador is that he'll fade due to having a Giro in his legs toward the end of the race.

At their peaks, both Andy and Alberto can drop Evans on big climbs. But with Andy and Alberto at less then their peaks for parts of the race, Contador with a deficit of 1:41 and Andy with a time trial deficit... well it's gone from impossible to merely improbable.

In my mind, Evans' biggest weakness isn't his climbing... it's the fact he tries to avoid being dropped for too long. When faced with a superior climber on a long climb, he tries to hold on until he's completely in the red... then bonks totally (often getting passed by lesser climbers who paced themselves better). If he lets go and rides his own speed, it seems like he'd likely be able to turn losses of 2 minutes on some big climbs into losses of 45 seconds.

I don't know if he'll be able to do that though.

There are two issues for Tour watchers and Cadel. 1. You're seeing Contador and AS coming in without the benefit of as much chemistry, period. If they recover well they will get better when the roads get steep. If they can't recover (and don't risk boosting) you will see a truer test of how they all climb.
2. Cadel should avoid securing the jersey if he doesn't want to tax his resources.

 

[kurtinsc]

hanging around isn't being impressive. evans also got dropped on monte grappa in the 2010 giro. so he got dropped on: monte grappa by nibali basso and scarponi, zoncolan by basso and then almost caught by scarponi even tho he had a big advantage on him at the time basso left him behind, then on the mortirolo by the same trio as in monte grappa. he then gainned some time on the gavia stage because basso nibali and scarponi couldn't be bothered to go after him as they already had a more then comfortable lead.

thats not a performance that suggests he can keep up with contador or limit his losses to less then 1 and a half minutes over the mountains

I'm getting confused with the climbs vs stage finishes.

As far as I can tell, in 2010 other then the big loss on Aprica (on stage 19 of a GT where he had peaked for the Ardennes a month earlier), his losses were:

1:19 to Basso on Zoncolan (stage 15).
3 seconds to Nibali and Scarponi on L'Aquila (stage 11)


On every other stage he either gained time or finished in the same time as Basso/Nibali/Scarponi. That doesn't smell like a rider outclassed by the competition in the mountains (with the exception of Basso on the Zoncolan and the trio on Aprica), but rather a guy running out of juice after peaking prior to the race.

Again... Contador on his peak? No, he'd lose too much time.

I'm just not sure Contador will be at his peak later in the race. Other then Super Besse (a shorter climb that suits Evans), the big ones don't start until stage 12. If Contador is feeling the Giro at that point and Andy hasn't built his form to the Andy of last year... he's got a shot. If either are at top form all the way from stage 12-18... he's toast as far as winning.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

Question for all, if you were advising Evans, what tactics would you offer for the win?

take lots of epo and hope you won't get caught until a few years after the tour

 

[Mambo95]

Question for all, if you were advising Evans, what tactics would you offer for the win?

Nothing that he doesn't know already.

- Ride your own race

- Don't respond to any early attacks from Contador or the Schlecks, just those in the last 3km. Let them wear each other out.

- Make friends with the more steady pace climbers (Basso, Wiggins, Leipheimer, Kloden, VDB etc - whoever is on form) and work with the ones that are on form then jump away in the last 2-3km.

- Relax and enjoy yourself. You don't have anything to prove.

 

[taiwan]

Evans has had some gems of wins recently. The Strade Bianchi stage of the '10 Giro, the Fleche Wallone, The Tirreno-Adriatico stage and the WC were all pretty thrilling. I only saw the last minute of the stage today, but some of the pain-faces in the steephill photos indicate an exciting finale.

 

[luckyboy]

-removed quoted comment-

2. Cadel should avoid securing the jersey if he doesn't want to tax his resources.

If Hushovd loses it in in Lisieux or Super Besse, I don't know how Cadel would be able to avoid taking over the yellow jersey.
If Hushovd hangs onto it until Luz-Ardiden, the only way he won't inherit the jersey is by getting dropped. And that would hardly be a positive sign.

 

[karlboss]

That's a pretty big assumption that Andy and AC are doing things that Cadel isn't.



If Hushovd loses it in in Lisieux or Super Besse, I don't know how Cadel would be able to avoid taking over the yellow jersey.
If Hushovd hangs onto it until Luz-Ardiden, the only way he won't inherit the jersey is by getting dropped. And that would hardly be a positive sign.

Hushovd will keep it until super besse barring exceptional circumstances.

then you're right of course, still loads of defending to do

 

[cineteq]

Yes!!!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Hushovd will keep it until super besse barring exceptional circumstances.

then you're right of course, still loads of defending to do

Or just let the break go in stage 9. Hopefully one of them can take it. If not, it'll be the sprinters' teams that do all the work pulling it back (or maybe Lotto since it's a cat.4 climb to the finish of that stage). And then you have the same short uphill finish that might give Evans the chance to extend his lead slightly.

 

[Parrulo]

There are two issues for Tour watchers and Cadel. 1. You're seeing Contador and AS coming in without the benefit of as much chemistry, period. If they recover well they will get better when the roads get steep. If they can't recover (and don't risk boosting) you will see a truer test of how they all climb.
2. Cadel should avoid securing the jersey if he doesn't want to tax his resources.

ofc you are right aussies don't dope. only dirty spaniards and apparently every1 that is better then your beloved cadel. quick quiz: for how many teams with a team wide doping program did evans rode? if your answer is 3 then you are correct. btw bmc is pretty much the same structure as phonak which wasn't the cleanest team in the bunch i would say so we could almost make it 4. another funny trivia, on last year's giro the only time when evans put time on basso on a climb while basso was going all out was on the plan de corones MTT that was 1 day after a rest day and 2 days after the zoncolan stage where basso droped evans like a stone. my advice, stop being ignorant

anyway enough talk about clinic related stuff

I'm getting confused with the climbs vs stage finishes.

As far as I can tell, in 2010 other then the big loss on Aprica (on stage 19 of a GT where he had peaked for the Ardennes a month earlier), his losses were:

1:19 to Basso on Zoncolan (stage 15).
3 seconds to Nibali and Scarponi on L'Aquila (stage 11)


On every other stage he either gained time or finished in the same time as Basso/Nibali/Scarponi. That doesn't smell like a rider outclassed by the competition in the mountains (with the exception of Basso on the Zoncolan and the trio on Aprica), but rather a guy running out of juice after peaking prior to the race.

Again... Contador on his peak? No, he'd lose too much time.

I'm just not sure Contador will be at his peak later in the race. Other then Super Besse (a shorter climb that suits Evans), the big ones don't start until stage 12. If Contador is feeling the Giro at that point and Andy hasn't built his form to the Andy of last year... he's got a shot. If either are at top form all the way from stage 12-18... he's toast as far as winning.

he lost contact on monte grappa but then reconnected on the descend dunno if after or just before nibbles went solo leaving scarponi and evans working to go after him while basso rested on their wheels for the next day(the zoncolan) that days efforts came at a price for nibali that lost a lot of time on the zoncolan.

 

[Oldman]

That's a pretty big assumption that Andy and AC are doing things that Cadel isn't.



If Hushovd loses it in in Lisieux or Super Besse, I don't know how Cadel would be able to avoid taking over the yellow jersey.
If Hushovd hangs onto it until Luz-Ardiden, the only way he won't inherit the jersey is by getting dropped. And that would hardly be a positive sign.

You would be right if I assumed Cadel wasn't. I'm not and certainly don't know anything. Just a time-honored level of cynicism honed by the reality that Contador and Schleck seem to attract more scrutiny and would reluctantly be more careful. All things being equal I don't see Cadel surviving those two unless they find it difficult to sustain the pressure on him. Schleck needs more time for a buffer even if Contador quit today but he's going to need to get it at every opportunity.

Either way we will be treated to some aggressive racing for a change.

 

[Alex Simmons/RST]

That rider is Cadel, twice he was the favorite or should have had it in the bag and threw it away, looking up at the top step of the podium when he could have been there.

It's just not going to happen for him, if he was 27 or 28 he may have a chance in the future but even then I doubt it. Only one rider in the last 80 years has converted two second places into a future tour win (Joop Zoetemelk), statistically winners don't go through more than one second place and then win. Add to that the age factor and his temperament and really he is relying on something akin to a perfect storm to win, 4-5 riders will have to fall over from here for that to happen.

Not that I think Cadel will win, but how old was Zoetermelk when he won the TdF?

 

[rzombie1988]

Nothing that he doesn't know already.

- Ride your own race

- Don't respond to any early attacks from Contador or the Schlecks, just those in the last 3km. Let them wear each other out.

- Make friends with the more steady pace climbers (Basso, Wiggins, Leipheimer, Kloden, VDB etc - whoever is on form) and work with the ones that are on form then jump away in the last 2-3km.

- Relax and enjoy yourself. You don't have anything to prove.

My advice would just be to follow Contador. He races very intelligently and really to win, he needs to beat him. If Cadel could wheelsuck him without stopping for the whole Tour, he might win it. Forget attacking, he wouldn't need to if he follows Contador. Unlike some of his other contenders, he already has a lead and his TT skills are good enough where this might work. Of course following Contador is easier said than done.

 

[Dermie]

Read this article

Good article as to why I feel quite positive about Cadel's prospects.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/evans-masters-mur-de-bretagne

All the contenders have a chance at the beginning of the race, that's why they are there. They are all winners, their sponsers & teams are investing millions of dollars in them so don't run them down too easy. These million dollar spenders know more than you guys & me, & maybe gamble a bit aswell!!
This year Cadel Evans has a lot more going for him than in earlier years.

 

[Dermie]

Another good quote by experts

Go to the bottom of the article

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schlecks-take-positive-spin-on-mur-de-bretagne-results

 

[BM1979]

I think Cadel is riding smart this year , he says he is focusing purely on the GC but I think he is smart enough to know that he is not going to win without a bit of luck.

Cadel in the past would never have tried to win stages like this and him winning takes the pressure off the team and no matter what happens from here on BMC have had a sucessful Tour.

Im just enjoying the way he is riding and am loving his new attitude , You can tell he is enjoying being with this team and they love riding for him.

 

[Señor_Contador]

I don't mean to be rude, because I am an AC fan, but... whoever thinks that Cadel is a contender is going to get disappointed soon.