Cadel Evans, I told you it was his year.

[movingtarget]

thing is leopard were the likely suspects to crank it up on the mountains anyway. We saw a preview at suisse.

The pace will still be high. If basso and samu wanna win they should make it hard also.

just an insane tour really, the stars have really aligned for cadel, only for him to get owned bu schleck

I have a feeling this race is going to continue being unpredictable right up to and including the time trial.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

thing is leopard were the likely suspects to crank it up on the mountains anyway. We saw a preview at suisse.

The pace will still be high. If basso and samu wanna win they should make it hard also.

just an insane tour really, the stars have really aligned for cadel, only for him to get owned bu schleck

I expect a VERY strong szmyd for basso

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I have a feeling this race is going to continue being unpredictable right up to and including the time trial.

generally tour mountains are more predictable.
I can't see cadel suddenly becoming a gun in the cols, but whatever, time will tell.

luck can only get you so far.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I expect a VERY strong szmyd for basso

yeah he more or less soft peddled at the giro imo. LOL @ him setting the pace for nibali (it wasn't a hard pace but moderate and controlled for nibbles)

much more useful for basso, a real diesel.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

yeah he more or less soft peddled at the giro imo. LOL @ him setting the pace for nibali (it wasn't a hard pace but moderate and controlled for nibbles)

much more useful for basso, a real diesel.

szmyd is wrong helper for nibali as he's a real pacer in climbs, while nibali only need to defend. also perfect for basso who can't follow accelerations and szmyd can put a blistering pace and only goes stronger the longer the climb takes

 

[Oldman]

thing is leopard were the likely suspects to crank it up on the mountains anyway. We saw a preview at suisse.

The pace will still be high. If basso and samu wanna win they should make it hard also.

just an insane tour really, the stars have really aligned for cadel, only for him to get owned bu schleck

Basso and Sanchez have the most to gain by being aggressive, particularly when it forces the Schecks to chase from a deficit. That still helps Cadel if he can maintain proximity to the Luxumbergers but it's a good start.

 

[oncehadhair]

If Cadel doesn't pull it out the bag I could well see a Schleck 1 and 2.

+1
characters

 

[mickkk]

No, it's not his best week or even his best start, or best chance. That was in 2008.

After stage 9, 2008 he was in second place by 6 seconds, 1 Minute 28 seconds in front of the winner who eventually won by 58 seconds, he wore yellow in that race and he may noty even do that this time. That year Frank and Andy were nearly two minutes behind after stage 9.

This year 2min 26 back from the leader with Frank and Andy within 11 seconds and Contador at 1min 40 with more mountain top finishes to come than 2008.

That is all correct, but the moon and the stars and the room temperature and the Ph of the water were not right then. Its the intangibles that make the difference, its what happens off the bike that counts with Evans as much as on it. 25% bike, 25% off the bike and 50% in his noggin.

In 2008, it was all woe, the usual its all so hard, the world is against me. That attitude is missing this year, its tried to get out a few times, but its really in check. To quote the TM, "we have called each other about the tour for the last 6 months, we spend more time on the phone with each other than with our wives". Evans is being catered to and it works.

Just have to hope the alignment continues.

BTW id expect a few DNS today and a lot of very sore boys. A good day for a lone rider to get away.

 

[movingtarget]

generally tour mountains are more predictable.
I can't see cadel suddenly becoming a gun in the cols, but whatever, time will tell.

luck can only get you so far.

I'm not talking about luck, I am talking about riders carrying injuries that might improve and some riders exceeding expectations or not reaching the level others expected of them. Hard to know how Basso, Velits, Gesink, Sanchez and Kloeden will go. I don't expect both Schlecks to finish on the podium. Just can't see it happening even though they both look good at the moment. At least one of them will fail in the TT.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

I'm not talking about luck, I am talking about riders carrying injuries that might improve and some riders exceeding expectations or not reaching the level others expected of them. Hard to know how Basso, Velits, Gesink, Sanchez and Kloeden will go. I don't expect both Schlecks to finish on the podium. Just can't see it happening even though they both look good at the moment. At least one of them will fail in the TT.

andy is much better then frank, there is no doubt about it.
Evans will never match him in the mountains. That is predictable.

 

[Dermie]

That is all correct, but the moon and the stars and the room temperature and the Ph of the water were not right then. Its the intangibles that make the difference, its what happens off the bike that counts with Evans as much as on it. 25% bike, 25% off the bike and 50% in his noggin.

In 2008, it was all woe, the usual its all so hard, the world is against me. That attitude is missing this year, its tried to get out a few times, but its really in check. To quote the TM, "we have called each other about the tour for the last 6 months, we spend more time on the phone with each other than with our wives". Evans is being catered to and it works.

Just have to hope the alignment continues.

BTW id expect a few DNS today and a lot of very sore boys. A good day for a lone rider to get away.

This year Cadel appears to be (so far) 100% better on the bike, in fact he's been on it all the time unlike his rivals, He has been 100% better off the bike maybe its his new team giving him that added sense of security & most of all he is 200% better in the noggin since his world championship win, he now believe's in himself. In the past (his younger years) he was a great mountain biker & won quite a few UCI world cups & overall world cup wins. He was the first MTB'er to sign a Million dollar contract (with volvo/cannondale).
So it looks to me that all the stars, water, fire & temperatures are aligning for him are aligning for him. And to his fortune his competitors (or their team mates) are falling off their bikes. Oh i forgot his aussie & german compatriots on the shreck team will not worry his team on the flats, rolly's or the mountains. The shreck bro's will implode at the final test on the high mountains. Cadel has improved, he has found the formula in every department, why would/could he not have found during his quieter season, a significant improvement in his climbing ability????

 

[Oldman]

andy is much better then frank, there is no doubt about it.
Evans will never match him in the mountains. That is predictable.[/QUOTE]

I have no stake in this either way but it's a bit early to sanction his predictability. He needs to put time into Cadel and watch out for other contenders. He and Frank will show what they have on Thursday.

 

[movingtarget]

andy is much better then frank, there is no doubt about it.
Evans will never match him in the mountains. That is predictable.

If Evans loses chunks of time on Thursday and Saturday it's all over for him with a week still to go. It also means it will be a replay of the past two years with Schleck versus Contador which would be dull. If the time gaps stay the same Schleck has some chance but if Contador eats into Schleck's advantage before the TT, it's all over for AS. But Contador rode a mediocre final time trial by his standards last year. Who's to say it can't happen again ? Predictions predictions. So far Basso has ridden like Menchov. Be very interested to see how he goes on Thursday's MTF. Also Gesink. If he can limit his losses in the mountains, the podium is still possible as he usually rides well in the TT's.

 

[Dermie]

All you're negativity is based on his past performances, he has shown that he is very different this year in every respect, & I will qualify that with "so far".
But his change is very pronounced, I believe (& a bit of hope) that he will be significantly better this year. The others will be very surprised with him & get frustrated by him, he will do better than he has ever done before & there's only one place better than second.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If Evans loses chunks of time on Thursday and Saturday it's all over for him with a week still to go. It also means it will be a replay of the past two years with Schleck versus Contador which would be dull. If the time gaps stay the same Schleck has some chance but if Contador eats into Schleck's advantage before the TT, it's all over for AS. But Contador rode a mediocre final time trial by his standards last year. Who's to say it can't happen again ? Predictions predictions. So far Basso has ridden like Menchov. Be very interested to see how he goes on Thursday's MTF. Also Gesink. If he can limit his losses in the mountains, the podium is still possible as he usually rides well in the TT's.

If gesink makes the podium he would have to do it in the mountains and not the itt.

I doubt he will be able to be that good in the mountains anymore.
I am kinda expecting his back to give in on the penultimate climb tomorrow, have a feeling he will lose chunks of time.

 

[auscyclefan94]

You have no confidence in your boy being Gesink, Timmy!

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

You have no confidence in your boy being Gesink, Timmy!

also basing on history.
I do not want to get my hopes up to be sadden when he fails.

If he surprises me so be it.

 

[Ramira]

All you're negativity is based on his past performances, he has shown that he is very different this year in every respect, & I will qualify that with "so far".
But his change is very pronounced, I believe (& a bit of hope) that he will be significantly better this year. The others will be very surprised with him & get frustrated by him, he will do better than he has ever done before & there's only one place better than second.

The thing is while some people here surely take it to far in my opinion. Past performances is all we have to go by. Cadel is 34 so it's unlikely he'll be better in the high mountains then he's ever been. Now I'll grant you it's quite likely he's closer to his 2007-2008 form then he is to his 2009-2010 form, but even his very best performance in the mountains won't be good enough to hang with a top form AS or AC. He couldn't keep up with AC in the high mountains in 2007 and both he and AS are better climbers now then AC was back then.

So while I think he's on very good form and might well challenge for the podium he needs AS and AC to falter to have a chance at winning the whole thing.

 

[Dermie]

Quote:
Originally Posted by auscyclefan94
You have no confidence in your boy being Gesink, Timmy!

also basing on history.
I do not want to get my hopes up to be sadden when he fails.

If he surprises me so be it.


I've got used to the ups & downs, but after the worlds win & the jubilation it gave me I reckon he deserves all the barracking I can give him.

 

[movingtarget]

Quote:
Originally Posted by auscyclefan94
You have no confidence in your boy being Gesink, Timmy!

also basing on history.
I do not want to get my hopes up to be sadden when he fails.

If he surprises me so be it.


I've got used to the ups & downs, but after the worlds win & the jubilation it gave me I reckon he deserves all the barracking I can give him.

I hope you are right as it will make the race more exciting. Lots of people want Evans to win and even if he doesn't he will give no less than a 100% in the attempt. I just want to see him do his best without crashes or illness if possible. If Evans does well in the mountains he might be able to take advantage of the rivalry between the Schlecks and Contador. Tomorrow's stage is the real start of the Tour for the GC contenders. Also get our first glimpses of how Basso, Gesink and other contenders are going.

 

[Archibald]

I hope you are right as it will make the race more exciting. Lots of people want Evans to win and even if he doesn't he will give no less than a 100% in the attempt. I just want to see him do his best without crashes or illness if possible. If Evans does well in the mountains he might be able to take advantage of the rivalry between the Schlecks and Contador. Tomorrow's stage is the real start of the Tour for the GC contenders. Also get our first glimpses of how Basso, Gesink and other contenders are going.

we'll see him pass them by while AC stops to help AS put his chain back on before the thankyou hug then stand their saying "after you", "no after you" to restart


Like you, I'd really like to see Cuddles have a problem free tour - no crashes, illness, punctures, stepped on dogs, etc... and be able to see just how good he can be.

 

[El Pistolero]

I don't believe for once AC and AS are friends.

 

[Angliru]

All you're negativity is based on his past performances, he has shown that he is very different this year in every respect, & I will qualify that with "so far".
But his change is very pronounced, I believe (& a bit of hope) that he will be significantly better this year. The others will be very surprised with him & get frustrated by him, he will do better than he has ever done before & there's only one place better than second.

For the most part it isn't negativity. He's had a good Tour so far but we haven't even hit the real mountains yet and it's not like he's simply put minutes into his opponents on terrain that is his domain. He's thrived on routes that he's done well on in the past. You can't base your belief that he's bridged the gap in the mountains on his rivals on what he's done in the past week. The proof will be at the end of Thursday's stage and beyond, not on such short rises as what was in the first week. I think you're getting a bit too excited by the fact that he's at the top of the gc (ahead of his rivals). If he's still there come the ITT then you can stick your chest out and be happy with little fear of him losing it (Well maybe, the same belief existed in 2008 and we know what happened there). IMO he has no difference in support in the mountains than he had in 2008.

 

[indurain666]

Why are you guys so confident Cadel Evans is going to win this thing, or even make the podium? We haven't even tackled a serious mountain yet! Only thing Evans has done well so far is stay at the front of the race and his team had a good TT. I am not saying he is better or worse than previous years, we don't know yet, lets see what happens tomorrow.

 

[greenedge]

Basso is saying that the first week was not important/ decisive and is now saying stage 12 will not be for him either. It will just show who has good form and show the contenders from the pretenders.