Cadel Evans on 2012 TdF favorites : No contador among the main contenders??

[El Pistolero]

His attack was still a way from the top of the climb. And do you seriously think that sticking behind Maxime Monfort is like staying in a peloton.

People get dropped in team time trials with 9 riders. Andy almost got dropped in the Les Essarts one despite taking no pulls.

And yet, when it comes to downplaying Andys accomplishments, at all costs, sticking behind Monfort on the downhill and flat into Galibier, is some free ride that wastes no energy, right?

People get dropped in team time trials because:

1) They actually ride a lot harder in team time trials because only the time of the fifth rider matters.
2) some people can't handle the sudden change of tempo that happens when a new rider gets on the front in team time trials making them get dropped.
3) Some people sacrifice them self completely before the finish line because only the time of the fifth rider matters.
4) Some people aren't used to ride on a time trial bike
5) Some people crash
6) Some people just suck.

The peloton chasing behind Andy on the Galibier stage wasn't that big anyway.

Like duh, Andy was more tired then the rest. But it still doesn't make him the best climber. What he did on Galibier was a tactical win. You can't say that Andy was a better climber than Cadel Evans on that stage. I doubt Andy would have dropped Cadel Evans if they were together at the Galibier.

As for sticking behind Monfort being the same as being in the peloton. Well, that all depends on how the wind was that day If it was headwind and he was sticking Behind Monfort it's practically the same as staying in the peloton. Andy wasn't consuming more energy than Cadel Evans on the descend for example. His 24% of the work done before the final climb is him consuming more energy. But that's hardly a 50k time trial as you make it out to be

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So if you believe that Andy wouldn't have been able to drop Evans on Galibier, it was an even stupider decision to let him go on the attack, as Evans would then have been safely esconced in yellow and won by a much more comfortable margin rather than relying on the ITT and opening up the risk that one small mistake or a mechanical could send his whole chance up in smoke.

Evans won the Tour not because he outclimbed Andy but because he partly outsmarted him, and partly because he wasn't afraid to try to take time at any point in the race. Andy only tried to take time with that heroic long-range attack because he was running out of time to make it count and he'd passed up opportunities previously. Evans never passed up an opportunity to gain time, even if it was only 3 seconds like on Mont des Alouettes.

 

[El Pistolero]

So if you believe that Andy wouldn't have been able to drop Evans on Galibier, it was an even stupider decision to let him go on the attack, as Evans would then have been safely esconced in yellow and won by a much more comfortable margin rather than relying on the ITT and opening up the risk that one small mistake or a mechanical could send his whole chance up in smoke.

Evans won the Tour not because he outclimbed Andy but because he partly outsmarted him, and partly because he wasn't afraid to try to take time at any point in the race. Andy only tried to take time with that heroic long-range attack because he was running out of time to make it count and he'd passed up opportunities previously. Evans never passed up an opportunity to gain time, even if it was only 3 seconds like on Mont des Alouettes.

Cadel Evans thought they would bring Andy back easily at the descend and the valley. Hence he didn't respond.

 

[Angliru]

It doesn't make him the best climber. He was sucking wheels most of the time until Galibier anyway. 50k time trial? LOL. I still remember the percentages of the time they spent up front. It was something like 35% for Monfort, 24% for Andy and around 20% for Dries Devenys. You can't suck wheels in a time trial

Andy got dropped by Evans, Contador and Samu on a cat2 climb. Best climber my ass. Andy never dropped Cadel Evans on the climbs.

His stage win on the Galibier was a tactical win, not because he was the best climber.

I've been curious about this particular side of the argument. I can't see how Andy Schleck should be any different from any other rider that gets in a long breakaway on a mountainous Tour stage. It just seems quite acceptable and to be expected that his tempo/time advantage would decrease on the final climb to the mtf after the time spent in/on his escape. To say it's an indication of his pursuants (or one in particular, Evans) being a better climber as a result of their decreasing his maximum advantage is really difficult for me to even fathom as a serious argument. I'm certain some bias comes in to play in many of my posts so when I say this is also the case in regards to this argument, I figure I may be an expert.

 

[Polish]

It doesn't make him the best climber. He was sucking wheels most of the time until Galibier anyway. 50k time trial? LOL. I still remember the percentages of the time they spent up front. It was something like 35% for Monfort, 24% for Andy and around 20% for Dries Devenys. You can't suck wheels in a time trial

Andy got dropped by Evans, Contador and Samu on a cat2 climb. Best climber my ass. Andy never dropped Cadel Evans on the climbs.

His stage win on the Galibier was a tactical win, not because he was the best climber.

Agree but I would classify Andy's win on the Galibier an act of desperation - not tactics.
Same with Alberto on the Alpe the following day.
Desperate times called for desperate measures.
But Cadel was ALWAYS there from Stage One Onwards.

Post Tour, Andy truthfully and graciously admitted Cadel was the stronger rider. Andy did NOT make that admission in 2010.

 

[El Pistolero]

I've been curious about this particular side of the argument. I can't see how Andy Schleck should be any different from any other rider that gets in a long breakaway on a mountainous Tour stage. It just seems quite acceptable and to be expected that his tempo/time advantage would decrease on the final climb to the mtf after the time spent in/on his escape. To say it's an indication of his pursuants (or one in particular, Evans) being a better climber as a result of their decreasing his maximum advantage is really difficult for me to even fathom as a serious argument. I'm certain some bias comes in to play in many of my posts so when I say this is also the case in regards to this argument, I figure I may be an expert.

It's simple: I never said in that post Cadel Evans was a better climber. I just said Andy wasn't good enough this Tour to actually drop Cadel on a climb.

 

[dolophonic]

Well duh.

The guy was in front for 50km before Galibier. I know you despise Andy and all but treating his failure to climb Galibier after a 50k tt, at the same pace as those who got an easy ride to the mountain, as a weakness on his part is another example of people taking the liberty, as we used to say, with regards to Andy Schleck. Im starting to hope he actually wins the Tour, after reading some of the stuff these groups of Contador and Evans fans post against him.

According to you, fatigue doesn't exist right?

Hitch. i hear you but i think that the guys who were actually working in the "chase group " were not getting an easy to the ride to the Galibier ie Cadel and Conta..

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Agree but I would classify Andy's win on the Galibier an act of desperation - not tactics.
Same with Alberto on the Alpe the following day.
Desperate times called for desperate measures.
But Cadel was ALWAYS there from Stage One Onwards.

Post Tour, Andy truthfully and graciously admitted Cadel was the stronger rider. Andy did NOT make that admission in 2010.

He did not, but Contador was the stronger rider. As a matter of fact. Andy was and probably still is ****ed about the chaingate fiasco.

But your post is factually correct. All of it.

 

[guncha]

Post Tour, Andy truthfully and graciously admitted Cadel was the stronger rider. Andy did NOT make that admission in 2010.

It is ironic that AC got MJ and TDF 10 title after chain-gate and later failed dope test. Hopefully AC will be stripped of title anyway.
AC was too lucky in 2007 when Ras was taken off the race. AC will be just too lucky if he won't get well deserved ban (for TDF 2010).

 

[roundabout]

The only stages were Contador was stronger were the prologue and the stage to Mende. On other stages Contador was strong enough not to get dropped.

 

[El Pistolero]

The only stages were Contador was stronger were the prologue and the stage to Mende. On other stages Contador was strong enough not to get dropped.

Making him the deserved winner.

 

[auscyclefan94]

In Cadel News, Cadel will be presenting the Melbourne Cup today. For those of you who don't know, the Melbourne Cup is the biggest horse race in Australia and one of the biggest in the World. Cadel will be presenting the Cup with Sally Pearson (hurdles). Cadel's wife will be judging the fashion on the fields contest.

In other news, Cadel has confirmed he will be riding the Olympics.

"For us, it's something I've done before and I have to manage it very carefully as it falls six or eight days after the Tour (Tour de France), but if the Australian team want me, I'll be there with bells on," he said.

"I'll be there 110 per cent. The plan after the Tour is to extend that period of focus to London and I'm guessing I can be of help to the Australian team. I'll have a real crack at it."

It would be Evans' third Olympics after Sydney and Beijing, and, considering his Tour de France win, if he makes the Olympics, some insiders are tipping he could carry the flag.

"I'm not worthy," he laughed.

 

[The Hitch]

In Cadel News, Cadel will be presenting the Melbourne Cup today. For those of you who don't know, the Melbourne Cup is the biggest horse race in Australia and one of the biggest in the World. Cadel will be presenting the Cup with Sally Pearson (hurdles). Cadel's wife will be judging the fashion on the fields contest.

In other news, Cadel has confirmed he will be riding the Olympics.

"For us, it's something I've done before and I have to manage it very carefully as it falls six or eight days after the Tour (Tour de France), but if the Australian team want me, I'll be there with bells on," he said.

"I'll be there 110 per cent. The plan after the Tour is to extend that period of focus to London and I'm guessing I can be of help to the Australian team. I'll have a real crack at it."

It would be Evans' third Olympics after Sydney and Beijing, and, considering his Tour de France win, if he makes the Olympics, some insiders are tipping he could carry the flag.

"I'm not worthy," he laughed.

Yeah Cadel should definately carry the flag, though it might go to the Thorpedo.

Will he do the tt though. He came 5th last time so its worth a try I suppose.

Would be good to see a GC leader work for someone like Goss.

You never know. With 5 riders per team, Cadels not bad on flat and there are a few hills early, if it gets split up into groups he could have a chance.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Yeah Cadel should definately carry the flag, though it might go to the Thorpedo.

Will he do the tt though. He came 5th last time so its worth a try I suppose.

Would be good to see a GC leader work for someone like Goss.

You never know. With 5 riders per team, Cadels not bad on flat and there are a few hills early, if it gets split up into groups he could have a chance.

He won the Tour in the wrong year imo. Australian media will probably jump off the idea of him carrying the flag if he doesn't go back to back at the Tour. I have doubts Thorpey will get selected. Hasn't had much competition 10 months out from the games and expects to be at the Olympics? There are better, younger people for hte swim team.

I think he said yes to the TT. If I remember correctly, he seemed more interested in the idea of doing TT. With 5 riders per team he certainly could do well but the Australian team would have to try and split things up for him.

 

[AussieGoddess]

I think Cadel will carry the flag ....

I think Thorpey will be there (even if only for a relay birth) - but not carrying the flag.

I dont think he has much chance at the road race - will be all for Goss (and rightly so), but he has a good shot at the time trial. Will be interesting to see who makes the team

 

[auscyclefan94]

I think Cadel will carry the flag ....

I think Thorpey will be there (even if only for a relay birth) - but not carrying the flag.

I dont think he has much chance at the road race - will be all for Goss (and rightly so), but he has a good shot at the time trial. Will be interesting to see who makes the team

The Road race with 5 man teams will make things hard to control. An attacking rider will win and it will be much harder for GBR to control the race on what is also a harder course.

Anyway, Cadel with his wife at the races.

 

[Mambo95]

It would be Evans' third Olympics after Sydney and Beijing, and, considering his Tour de France win, if he makes the Olympics, some insiders are tipping he could carry the flag.

"I'm not worthy," he laughed.[/I]

There's no chance of Evans or any male road cyclist carrying any flag or even being there. The opening ceremony finishes about 10.30pm and the road race starts 10am the next morning. They'll all be in bed, resting.

 

[Ferminal]

Unless they pick Renshaw.

 

[Archibald]

Yeah Cadel should definately carry the flag, though it might go to the Thorpedo.

Will he do the tt though. He came 5th last time so its worth a try I suppose.

Would be good to see a GC leader work for someone like Goss.

You never know. With 5 riders per team, Cadels not bad on flat and there are a few hills early, if it gets split up into groups he could have a chance.

not a chance he'll do the TT, that'll be Porte and Bobridge after their showing at the WC this year

I think Cadel will carry the flag ....

I think Thorpey will be there (even if only for a relay birth) - but not carrying the flag.

I dont think he has much chance at the road race - will be all for Goss (and rightly so), but he has a good shot at the time trial. Will be interesting to see who makes the team

Reckon they'll throw Haussler in the mix

As for Thorpe, he'll be there in some minor capacity (as you say) simply for the morale boost he'd give the team

Unless they pick Renshaw.

LOL

 

[karlboss]

not a chance he'll do the TT, that'll be Porte and Bobridge after their showing at the WC this year

While it may be porte and bobridge, I think they'll wait a little before making the call.

on 2011 performance, I'd pick Evans over both Bobridge and Porte.

my word we drifted on this thread.

 

[Kwibus]

The Road race with 5 man teams will make things hard to control. An attacking rider will win and it will be much harder for GBR to control the race on what is also a harder course.

Anyway, Cadel with his wife at the races.

I see the horse races in Australia have the same culture as the english horse races

It would be nice if Cadel carried the flag, but I doubt it will happen. Cycling just isn't big enough in Australia. If Cadel wins the TdF again he certainly has a big chance of carrying it though.

The olympics will be an interesting race. The 5 man teams will make it impossible to control like GB did this year during the WC. I doubt the pure sprinters like Cavendish will survive, but a rider like Goss who won M-SR from a small group of absolute topnodge racers certainly can.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I see the horse races in Australia have the same culture as the english horse races

It would be nice if Cadel carried the flag, but I doubt it will happen. Cycling just isn't big enough in Australia. If Cadel wins the TdF again he certainly has a big chance of carrying it though.

The olympics will be an interesting race. The 5 man teams will make it impossible to control like GB did this year during the WC. I doubt the pure sprinters like Cavendish will survive, but a rider like Goss who won M-SR from a small group of absolute topnodge racers certainly can.

I kinda agree with that. I am sceptical it will happen because tbh, it happened a year early than the olympics. For him to have any chance of carrying the flag, he'd have to win it again. In saying all this, the Road race is the day after the Opening Ceremony so I doubt he will be at the Opening Ceremony.

EDIT: Here's one more photo which is quite amusing.

Cadel with new NBA recruit, Liz Cambage.

 

[LaFlorecita]

*ahem* That's not normal.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The only stages were Contador was stronger were the prologue and the stage to Mende. On other stages Contador was strong enough not to get dropped.

Contador was also stronger in the time trial. You forgot to leave that one out, huh.

I know you dislike Contador, but let's be fair. His win was more than deserved. He was never on the verge of getting dropped, either, except for the one stage where Schleck and Sanchez took a measly 10 seconds on him.

 

[movingtarget]

I think Cadel will carry the flag ....

I think Thorpey will be there (even if only for a relay birth) - but not carrying the flag.

I dont think he has much chance at the road race - will be all for Goss (and rightly so), but he has a good shot at the time trial. Will be interesting to see who makes the team

I think Sally Pearson may be carrying the flag. Thorpe may not make the team. He has not competed for a long time and he is only targetting the shorter races.