Cadel Evans on 2012 TdF favorites : No contador among the main contenders??

[Libertine Seguros]

Evans won the Tour by 1'34". Andy Schleck finished 2'31" behind him on the ITT.

Evans gained 3" on stage 1, but Andy crashed, so we'll call that a mulligan. Both teams had the same time in the TTT.

Evans was better on Mur-de-Brétagne, but that translated itself into just 8 seconds. They came in together on Luz Ardiden, but remember that Fränk had attacked, so we don't know if Andy was stronger that day because he didn't want to chase his teammate. On Plateau de Beille, it's a crapshoot. Andy looked to be stronger because he could attack the group at will, but never actually went through with any of those attacks until the very end where he gained a miserable 2 seconds. You could argue this is evidence of Andy being stronger but tactically weak, or of Evans managing his efforts better.

It seemed to me like Evans had Schleck's number on the shorter climbs, but the longer and harder the climb, the more Schleck had Evans' number. Certainly if the stage was 3km longer on Galibier it could have been different - but you don't take the gamble on attacking based on a hypothetical stage profile. Evans salvaged his Tour with a splendid defensive ride... but no way did it beat Andy's epic attack for climbing. Evans could have lost the Tour right there, but didn't. He was still ahead going into the big high mountain stages and behind coming out of them - but Andy didn't get enough time to stop himself losing out big time in the ITT.

 

[Walkman]

Definatly not.. But if we are going to resort to "confluence of events / luck" don't even get me started on how lucky Evans was to dodge ALL the crashes. And if you bring up it was skill, so was Andy's escape and not random luck.

So Andy wasn't lucky to aviod crashing? (exclude stage 1) He was lucky to get the same time as the front group while AC and Sammy did not. I f they had, maby Andy wouldn't have been on the podium?! If Cadel was lucky, with regards to crashes, Andy was even more lucky.

The best overall climber was (by far) Andy, he gained time on everyone in the mountains, lost it on the descends and the Time Trial, but sure as hell he didn't lose time to anyone besides Samu on Luz Ardiden..

No. How could you say that? Did you watched the Tour? He didn't gain any time in the Pyrenees, lost time on the stage to Gap, gained time on Galibier and loste time to Rolland, Sanchez and AC on Alpe and came in a gruop of maby 7 riders. How is that, in any way, "gaining time on everyone in the mountains"?

Did you add up the time diffrences from all the mountain stages and compared them?!

 

[The Hitch]

I can totally se your argument for saying Andy was the best climber, I actually debated myself whether I should say Evans or Andy. I choosed Cadel and I might be biased in this question but in any case I woudn't say either one of them were much better than the other.

Cadel beated Andy in stage 4 (not counting stage 1 since Andy crashed) and they were even at Super Besse and in the Pyrenees. Then Cadel outclimbed Andy on stage 16 when he, AC and Sammy gapped the other leaders.

On stage 18 Andy did a monumental attack in wich he proved true panache. However, Cadel did too! Though I'd give Andy the edge here. What he did was magnificant but I still beleive that Cadel had as much power as Andy that day. Had the stage been 3 kilometers longer, who knows what would have happend?!

I'd say he was clearly the best on stage 19 and pretty even with Evans on stage 16..

If you are counting the 8 seconds Cadel got on Bretagne, then i say the 2 seconds andy got on Plateu should also count.

The differences between Cadel on 16 and Andy on 18 are HUUUGE.

To start with Andy got more time on 18 than Cadel did on 16. And thats despite the fact that he was at the huge disadvantage of being on his own.

But also you have the circumstances.
Cadel followed Contador. He didnt launch the attacks himself which is a more gruelling prospect.

Andy launched a suicidal attack 60km out and got 2 minutes on all the heads of state.

As for saying that Cadel was as strong as Andy on stage 18, snap out of it.

As I said in other threads, had the situation been reversed and Cadel had attacked from 60km and gotten 2 minutes, he would have been given the Legion of Honour. A blasphemy law would have been introduced against anyone suggesting that the little pull Andy Schleck did at the end of the stage to limit his losses was anywhere near the level of Cadels heroic effort that day.

Its only because of Cadel love and some Andy Schleck hatred that this idiotic proposition has come about.

If Cadel was as strong as Andy that day, how comes he finished with Pierre Rolland and Tommy Voeckler?

If Andy Schleck had waited till Galibier to pump out the tempo, I assure europcar would not havebeen anywhere near there.

 

[The Hitch]

Lets also add to the Andy vs Cadel who was better climber, argument, the following.


1 Samuel Sánchez (ESP) Euskaltel-Euskadi
2 Andy Schleck (LUX) Leopard Trek 98
3 Jelle Vanendert (BEL) Omega Pharma-Lotto 74
4 Cadel Evans (AUS) BMC Racing Team 58

 

[cineteq]

If Cadel was as strong as Andy that day, how comes he finished with Pierre Rolland and Tommy Voeckler?

Because he's smart. He let Andy go, and reeled him back, like a fish. Game over!

PS: For the record, Voeckler and Rolland finished with Evans, not the other way around as you're trying to put it.

 

[The Hitch]

Because he's smart. He let Andy go, and reeled him back, like a fish. Game over!

So what you are saying is that Evans could have gone even faster up Galibier?

Umm then why didnt he?

And in case you werent watching, which i strongly suspect you were not, Evans did not reel Andy back in. He came in 2 minutes later.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

2012 TDF if gonna be fun in a lot of ways even though the route is crap.

 

[Polish]

So what you are saying is that Evans could have gone even faster up Galibier?

Umm then why didnt he?

And in case you werent watching, which i strongly suspect you were not, Evans did not reel Andy back in. He came in 2 minutes later.

Why didn't he?
Because Cadel was smart. He raced smart start to finish.
Smart because he dosed his efforts.

Why did he dose his efforts you may ask?
Two reasons:
1) Cadel realizes he chokes under the pressure of a leaders jersey. Post race interviews etc. Stay within striking distance of the lead, but let someone else wear Yellow. Make other teams defend.
2) Cadel knew he would smash Andy in the final ITT. Cadel conserved brilliantly and demolished Andy on that day.

If you watch the Tour again, you will appreciate Cadel even more.
What did he do wrong? Nada. Climbed brilliantly.
Great Tour.

 

[ultimobici]

Why didn't he?
Because Cadel was smart. He raced smart start to finish.
Smart because he dosed his efforts.

Why did he dose his efforts you may ask?
Two reasons:
1) Cadel realizes he chokes under the pressure of a leaders jersey. Post race interviews etc. Stay within striking distance of the lead, but let someone else wear Yellow. Make other teams defend.
2) Cadel knew he would smash Andy in the final ITT. Cadel conserved brilliantly and demolished Andy on that day.

If you watch the Tour again, you will appreciate Cadel even more.
What did he do wrong? Nada. Climbed brilliantly.
Great Tour.

I'm stunned, truly stunned.

A post of yours that I agree with in its entirety. Thank you!

 

[cineteq]

Two reasons:
1) Cadel realizes he chokes under the pressure of a leaders jersey. Post race interviews etc. Stay within striking distance of the lead, but let someone else wear Yellow. Make other teams defend.
2) Cadel knew he would smash Andy in the final ITT. Cadel conserved brilliantly and demolished Andy on that day.

Great job! Voila monsieur Hitch, that what me and other posters have been trying to tell you for weeks in different threads.

 

[unsheath]

So what you are saying is that Evans could have gone even faster up Galibier?

Umm then why didnt he?

And in case you werent watching, which i strongly suspect you were not, Evans did not reel Andy back in. He came in 2 minutes later.

Gap was 4min+ before Evans took charge, so climbed Galibier 2min faster.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Why didn't he?
Because Cadel was smart. He raced smart start to finish.
Smart because he dosed his efforts.

Why did he dose his efforts you may ask?
Two reasons:
1) Cadel realizes he chokes under the pressure of a leaders jersey. Post race interviews etc. Stay within striking distance of the lead, but let someone else wear Yellow. Make other teams defend.
2) Cadel knew he would smash Andy in the final ITT. Cadel conserved brilliantly and demolished Andy on that day.

If you watch the Tour again, you will appreciate Cadel even more.
What did he do wrong? Nada. Climbed brilliantly.
Great Tour.

He was fortunate that he didn't get in Yellow but BMC put men on the front such as on stages 4, 8, & 9 when it looked like yellow would go to Cadel. They were certainly willing to take it as Lelangue wouldn't of waisted the team if it wasn't necessary to ride on the front.

 

[The Hitch]

Gap was 4min+ before Evans took charge, so climbed Galibier 2min faster.

What are you, some sort of a comedian? I don't get the joke. All I see is a totla non sequitur

1) Cadel realizes he chokes under the pressure of a leaders jersey. Post race interviews etc. Stay within striking distance of the lead, but let someone else wear Yellow. Make other teams defend.

Uh, it was stage 18 not stage 5. There was 1 road stage left. He chose to go in to the tt a minute down because he didnt want BMC to ride at the front on 1 stage?

Great job! Voila monsieur Hitch, that what me and other posters have been trying to tell you for weeks in different threads.

This is what you were trying to tell me in all those threads that had nothing to do with this subject?

No wonder I had no idea what you were talking about.

But you know your writing skills are really poor if after several weeks of trying to make a point, its Polish that has to step in and make it for you.

 

[cineteq]

But you know your writing skills are really poor if after several weeks of trying to make a point, its Polish that has to step in and make it for you.

Is this a reflection of yourself? Writing long posts (one-sentenced paragraphs) that do not make sense when linked to each other?

PS: I don't think you understood either what Polish wrote, oh boy

 

[Angliru]

Definatly not.. But if we are going to resort to "confluence of events / luck" don't even get me started on how lucky Evans was to dodge ALL the crashes. And if you bring up it was skill, so was Andy's escape and not random luck.

The best overall climber was (by far) Andy, he gained time on everyone in the mountains, lost it on the descends and the Time Trial, but sure as hell he didn't lose time to anyone besides Samu on Luz Ardiden..

...and Contador and Samu on Alpe d'huez.

 

[The Hitch]

PS: I don't think you understood either what Polish wrote, oh boy

Polish wrote a lot, and I made 1 small comment about 1 small section of his post.

Either you have a reason for reaching this conclusion, or you are just wildly speculating that I do not have the mental capacity to understand the post.

If its the latter take a look at this thread.

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=14953

If its the former, then try this again.

I don't think you understood either what Polich wrote, because .... (paragraph explaing, why you reached such a conclusion), oh boy,

 

[Ferminal]

Polish's 1 and 2 are contradictory to what actually happened.

Evans on several occasions gained small time in the opening period of the race - the uphill finishes and the TTT. If 1 is true, then why did he appear to be putting more into these stages than his rivals (especially for someone who historically fades later in a GT). He got the stage win out of it, and those finishes are his forte, but from he point of view of trying to avoid Yellow, well he was making a meal out of it if that was his goal, saved only by the heroics of Hushovd. I'm not saying that he tried and failed, rather he rode the TTT and those finishes as well as he could have to gain time and maybe a psychological advantage over his rivals, if Yellow came about from it then so be it.

Which leads into point 2. If Evans was so confident about waiting for the ITT, he wasn't showing it in the way that he was not letting any seconds slip away. He wasn't required to do anything in the Pyrenees because he had a comfortable lead over the only man who would deprive him in the ITT - so he just had to manage the threats of Contador and the Schlecks. Given at this point Evans already had a buffer on Andy, there wasn't a decision to be made. Andy would have needed at the least half a minute on GC before Evans would have decided to take up the initiative in the mountains - a lot easier to lose the race there than win it.

But back to the point, Evans following Contador on the stage to Gap (no question that he should of done this), but then attacking the descent? Hardly riding below ones limit, the sign of a man who is happy to hold hands with Contador and Andy until the ITT. Hitch's query was actually about Evans riding below his limit when on the front on Lautaret-Galibier. I assume point 2 is saying that yes he was, because he could just take it easy waiting for the ITT. This does not match with my recollection of that day. When Evans was on the front he was riding at his limit, against the clock and he did that perfectly. Any second he couldn't claw back here was a second he had to gain back in Grenoble. The idea of riding below his limit means that there would have to be a greater recovery benefit in the ITT. i.e. Each second dropped here would be an additional second he took off Schleck in the ITT, with interest. He was neither below nor above his reasonable limit, isn't this what people have been screaming at Evans to do for years.

Then there is Telegraphe-Galibier and Alpe d'Huez, I do not see too much of a deviation from the previous trend. He was probably beyond his reasonable limit on Telegraphe for a while before he stopped, but on the other hand taking it relatively easy with the Schlecks on the middle part of the Alpe. Again though, he went to the front and lifted the pace, my reading is he felt comfortable and wanted to see if he could sneak a few seconds out of Andy, so he set the pace at his level, not what was being dictated by Leopard.

The main point of all of this is that Evans' performance (for the entire race) suggested he wasn't going overboard, whilst at the same time not leaving any "what ifs" out on the road. It is my opinion that he rode the perfect race, not because he avoided Yellow and not because he wasn't putting his all into the earlier stages as a trade off with time trial (as I don't believe these to be true), but because he rode almost every day and every key moment as hard as he knew he could without falling off the other end

 

[woodie]

Polish wrote a lot, and I made 1 small comment about 1 small section of his post.

Either you have a reason for reaching this conclusion, or you are just wildly speculating that I do not have the mental capacity to understand the post.

If its the latter take a look at this thread.

http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showthread.php?t=14953

If its the former, then try this again.

You really do take this all too seriously

 

[The Hitch]

You really do take this all too seriously

And the posters I am responding to do not?

 

[El Pistolero]

If you are counting the 8 seconds Cadel got on Bretagne, then i say the 2 seconds andy got on Plateu should also count.

The differences between Cadel on 16 and Andy on 18 are HUUUGE.

To start with Andy got more time on 18 than Cadel did on 16. And thats despite the fact that he was at the huge disadvantage of being on his own.

But also you have the circumstances.
Cadel followed Contador. He didnt launch the attacks himself which is a more gruelling prospect.

Andy launched a suicidal attack 60km out and got 2 minutes on all the heads of state.

As for saying that Cadel was as strong as Andy on stage 18, snap out of it.

As I said in other threads, had the situation been reversed and Cadel had attacked from 60km and gotten 2 minutes, he would have been given the Legion of Honour. A blasphemy law would have been introduced against anyone suggesting that the little pull Andy Schleck did at the end of the stage to limit his losses was anywhere near the level of Cadels heroic effort that day.

Its only because of Cadel love and some Andy Schleck hatred that this idiotic proposition has come about.

If Cadel was as strong as Andy that day, how comes he finished with Pierre Rolland and Tommy Voeckler?

If Andy Schleck had waited till Galibier to pump out the tempo, I assure europcar would not havebeen anywhere near there.

Andy climbed a lot slower on the Galibier on stage 18 then everyone else. He made most of his time in the valley between the climbs where he had a lot of help of Monfort and Dries Devenys.

 

[Zoncolan]

The main point of all of this is that Evans' performance (for the entire race) suggested he wasn't going overboard, whilst at the same time not leaving any "what ifs" out on the road. It is my opinion that he rode the perfect race, not because he avoided Yellow and not because he wasn't putting his all into the earlier stages as a trade off with time trial (as I don't believe these to be true), but because he rode almost every day and every key moment as hard as he knew he could without falling off the other end

This sums it up for me.

 

[cineteq]

Andy climbed a lot slower on the Galibier on stage 18 then everyone else. He made most of his time in the valley between the climbs where he had a lot of help of Monfort and Dries Devenys.

Not to mention few riders from the breakaway, which he used for few minutes and then onto the next...is it leapfrogging?
In a interview with Evans after the stage, he was scratching his head on how Schleck could pull so many minutes so fast. Now he knows

The main point of all of this is that Evans' performance (for the entire race) suggested he wasn't going overboard, whilst at the same time not leaving any "what ifs" out on the road. It is my opinion that he rode the perfect race, not because he avoided Yellow and not because he wasn't putting his all into the earlier stages as a trade off with time trial (as I don't believe these to be true), but because he rode almost every day and every key moment as hard as he knew he could without falling off the other end

Well put Fermi!

PS: he knows the correct use of paragraphs.

 

[The Hitch]

Andy climbed a lot slower on the Galibier on stage 18 then everyone else. He made most of his time in the valley between the climbs where he had a lot of help of Monfort and Dries Devenys.

Well duh.

The guy was in front for 50km before Galibier. I know you despise Andy and all but treating his failure to climb Galibier after a 50k tt, at the same pace as those who got an easy ride to the mountain, as a weakness on his part is another example of people taking the liberty, as we used to say, with regards to Andy Schleck. Im starting to hope he actually wins the Tour, after reading some of the stuff these groups of Contador and Evans fans post against him.

According to you, fatigue doesn't exist right?

 

[El Pistolero]

Well duh.

The guy was in front for 50km before Galibier. I know you despise Andy and all but treating his failure to climb Galibier after a 50k tt, at the same pace as those who got an easy ride to the mountain, as a weakness on his part is another example of people taking the liberty, as we used to say, with regards to Andy Schleck. Im starting to hope he actually wins the Tour, after reading some of the stuff these groups of Contador and Evans fans post against him.

According to you, fatigue doesn't exist right?

It doesn't make him the best climber. He was sucking wheels most of the time until Galibier anyway. 50k time trial? LOL. I still remember the percentages of the time they spent up front. It was something like 35% for Monfort, 24% for Andy and around 20% for Dries Devenys. You can't suck wheels in a time trial

Andy got dropped by Evans, Contador and Samu on a cat2 climb. Best climber my ass. Andy never dropped Cadel Evans on the climbs.

His stage win on the Galibier was a tactical win, not because he was the best climber.

 

[The Hitch]

It doesn't make him the best climber. He was sucking wheels most of the time until Galibier anyway. 50k time trial? LOL. I still remember the percentages of the time they spent up front. It was something like 35% for Monfort, 24% for Andy and around 20% for Dries Devenys. You can't suck wheels in a time trial

His attack was still a way from the top of the climb. And do you seriously think that sticking behind Maxime Monfort is like staying in a peloton.

People get dropped in team time trials with 9 riders. Andy almost got dropped in the Les Essarts one despite taking no pulls.

And yet, when it comes to downplaying Andys accomplishments, at all costs, sticking behind Monfort on the downhill and flat into Galibier, is some free ride that wastes no energy, right?