Cadel Evans on 2012 TdF favorites : No contador among the main contenders??

[Waterloo Sunrise]

What about Vino? I hear you ask. He was 6th at the Giro and managed 16th at the Tour whilst being a super-domestique! Yes, but despite his successful season, he really hadn't shown his face in much until Trentino; he did hold his form impressively, admittedly, from LBL and through the Giro, but like Evans he faded from contention in the final week at the Giro, and he wasn't exactly trying to win the Tour; the pressure was off so he didn't need to worry about fighting to be in the front groups on flat stages, and could let himself drop time in the mountains (especially as he wanted the stage win, so dropping time was actually beneficial to this goal). Vino was successful at the Tour precisely because he didn't have that weight of expectation. And he still only managed 16th.

I haven't read this thread and have no idea or interest about it, to be honest.

But idly scanning this paragraph, it strikes me as odd to claim first that a lack of pressure allowed him to drop time without caring in the mountains, and then claim that even with the advantage of a lack of pressure, he only finished 16th.

Cavendish too can drop time with impunity in the mountains, but I tend to take that as an explanation of why he finishes 3 hours behind overall, rather than an advantage he has in the GC battle.

 

[Ferminal]

Evans would have been 5th at absolute best in the 2010 Tour. Remember the guy that beat him in that horrendously difficult Giro? The guy that hadn't had to do it off the back of a tough Ardennes campaign? The guy that didn't have an injury? He finished 32nd at the Tour.

Basso got quite sick during the latter parts of the Tour IIRC.

I think Evans (and Basso) would have been 6th-15th, with all things going right.

 

[The Hitch]

Yes, there's no doubt that Evans lacks the "performance" that allows Contador to achieve such feats.

There is doubt, but this belongs in the appropriate subform.

 

[movingtarget]

Evans got into the maillot jaune by virtue of doing decently on the cobbles and not being dropped by more than 10 seconds on Morzine, a climb where pretty much no major contender save for Armstrong and Wiggins lost more than ten seconds. No way was Evans, after one of the toughest GTs in years, and after the great Ardennes campaign he had, holding on to Andy and Alberto on Madeleine. Sánchez left the others there too. Evans ran out of steam in the Giro, and he would have had even less left in the tank at the Tour. He's a much smarter rider now than he used to be, but his best double-GT showing is 2nd in the Tour, 4th in the Vuelta (in 2007) - and that in a pretty light Vuelta route. And of course, the Tour péloton is much faster than the Vuelta péloton, which is one of the main reasons the Tour-Vuelta double is perceived as much more doable than the Giro-Tour one.

Evans would have been 5th at absolute best in the 2010 Tour. Remember the guy that beat him in that horrendously difficult Giro? The guy that hadn't had to do it off the back of a tough Ardennes campaign? The guy that didn't have an injury? He finished 32nd at the Tour. Sastre, by contrast, had a difficult time of the Giro and finished 8th. But he'd had next to no other racing, and still could only manage 20th at the Tour.

Evans is good. He's really good. Sometimes even phenomenal. But he's not bionic. And that's before we consider that the 2010 BMC support team, well, half of it wasn't ready for ONE Grand Tour, let alone two. I place the 2010 Evans in the lower half of the top 10 at the Tour at best. Not because I don't rate him, but because I think people who think he'd have been in the top 5 or contending for the win really undersell how hard he'd had to work in his 41 race days to that point. Basso had roughly the same amount of race days, but had basically hidden in the péloton until we got to Trentino. Evans had been fighting for the win Down Under, at Tirreno-Adriatico, at the Critérium International and the Ardennes before we got to the Giro. His team needed him to. There's only so much recovery a man can have.

What about Vino? I hear you ask. He was 6th at the Giro and managed 16th at the Tour whilst being a super-domestique! Yes, but despite his successful season, he really hadn't shown his face in much until Trentino; he did hold his form impressively, admittedly, from LBL and through the Giro, but like Evans he faded from contention in the final week at the Giro, and he wasn't exactly trying to win the Tour; the pressure was off so he didn't need to worry about fighting to be in the front groups on flat stages, and could let himself drop time in the mountains (especially as he wanted the stage win, so dropping time was actually beneficial to this goal). Vino was successful at the Tour precisely because he didn't have that weight of expectation. And he still only managed 16th.

I agree with most of what you wrote. I still think Evans will be very hard to beat in next year's TDF. Favourable route, better team and has finally got the monkey off his back and won the elusive grand tour. The later start to the season definitely worked for him and as you said he is a much smarter rider now. I don't think age will effect him much. He did not ride his first TDF until he was 29. I think Evans will at least make the podium in 2012 TDF. As for the Giro/TDF double. I can't see anyone doing it, including Contador. The only possible way would be if a much easier Giro was planned and I can't see that happening.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I agree with most of what you wrote. I still think Evans will be very hard to beat in next year's TDF. Favourable route, better team and has finally got the monkey off his back and won the elusive grand tour. The later start to the season definitely worked for him and as you said he is a much smarter rider now. I don't think age will effect him much. He did not ride his first TDF until he was 29. I think Evans will at least make the podium in 2012 TDF. As for the Giro/TDF double. I can't see anyone doing it, including Contador. The only possible way would be if a much easier Giro was planned and I can't see that happening.

Ah, but what Evans is capable of fresh in 2012, and what he was capable of after a very long and hard season to that point in 2010, are very different. I just think some people's idea of what he could have done in 2010 to be almost impossible to reconcile with Evans' (and more importantly BMC's) capabilities at the time.

2012's route is favourable to Evans, assuming that father time is still a couple of years away from catching him up, and of course his support squad is a lot stronger than it was in 2010 too.

 

[The Hitch]

I think the most important day for Evans in next years Tour, is November 24th. Its one of those days, which as they say, he can't win the Tour, but he can lose it.

 

[ferryman]

I think the most important day for Evans in next years Tour, is November 24th. Its one of those days, which as they say, he can't win the Tour, but he can lose it.

On the money again Hitch

 

[Walkman]

Ah, but what Evans is capable of fresh in 2012, and what he was capable of after a very long and hard season to that point in 2010, are very different. I just think some people's idea of what he could have done in 2010 to be almost impossible to reconcile with Evans' (and more importantly BMC's) capabilities at the time.

2012's route is favourable to Evans, assuming that father time is still a couple of years away from catching him up, and of course his support squad is a lot stronger than it was in 2010 too.

I am a big Evans fan but I have to agree with you. People are delusional if they thought that Evans could have won or podium (perhaps even top-5) in 2010. The guy was exhausted after a long and hard spring campain and a Giro were he was sick. He should have done the Vuelta instead.

As for this thread, peopel say Evans is an idiot for saying that about AC but aren't those the same people who said Evans would never win the Tour? In that case, by the same logic, aren't them idiots aswell?

Personally I don't read too much into what people say. None can predict the future and even though I don't agree with Evans in this matter I'll still support him. The guy is a bit weird, and everybody knows it.

 

[LaFlorecita]

I think the most important day for Evans in next years Tour, is November 24th. Its one of those days, which as they say, he can't win the Tour, but he can lose it.

But the decision won't be made then. It's just the hearings. The decision will probably come later. (or at least that's what I think I read)

 

[theyoungest]

I agree with most of what you wrote. I still think Evans will be very hard to beat in next year's TDF. Favourable route, better team and has finally got the monkey off his back and won the elusive grand tour. The later start to the season definitely worked for him and as you said he is a much smarter rider now. I don't think age will effect him much. He did not ride his first TDF until he was 29. I think Evans will at least make the podium in 2012 TDF. As for the Giro/TDF double. I can't see anyone doing it, including Contador. The only possible way would be if a much easier Giro was planned and I can't see that happening.

It took I don't know how many crashes to cause a good enough dent in Contador's form to stop him from winning the Tour. And even then he only had one bad day, and outclimbed everyone and their mother on most other occasions.

Contador can definitely win the Tour and the Giro in the same year.

 

[Walkman]

It took I don't know how many crashes to cause a good enough dent in Contador's form to stop him from winning the Tour. And even then he only had one bad day, and outclimbed everyone and their mother on most other occasions.

Contador can definitely win the Tour and the Giro in the same year.

Did you watched the Tour?

 

[greenedge]

That 1 bad day made Contador lose the TDF. After some other factors added to that. He could then attack but it would not have won him the race.

@Walkman: Evans could not have done the Vuelta in my view. He had already done 2 GT's that he had already got injured/ sick in. Training at home prepared him for his next goal the WC in Geelong.

 

[cineteq]

I think the most important day for Evans in next years Tour, is November 24th. Its one of those days, which as they say, he can't win the Tour, but he can lose it.

I think Feb. 14 2012 could be more of a factor

 

[Quixote]

I think Feb. 14 2012 could be more of a factor

Sorry...maybe it's a Senior Member moment but I'm lost with the importance of this date...what is it?

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

Sorry...maybe it's a Senior Member moment but I'm lost with the importance of this date...what is it?

Valentine's Day.

 

[Quixote]

Valentine's Day.

My wife would KILL me if she knew I stepped into that one! I guess I better order those roses today.

 

[cineteq]

My wife would KILL me if she knew I stepped into that one! I guess I better order those roses today.

Oh boy you're in such a big trouble....

But wait, it's an important day for Cadel, but that's not the reason.
Keep looking...

 

[Michielveedeebee]

Oh boy you're in such a big trouble....

But wait, it's an important day for Cadel, but that's not the reason.
Keep looking...

easy peasy, he turns 35

 

[cineteq]

easy peasy, he turns 35

Thank You!
To finish my thought, Cadel turning 35 will be more of a factor in the Tour than Contador being present or not.

 

[Quixote]

Thank You!
To finish my thought, Cadel turning 35 will be more of a factor in the Tour than Contador being present or not.

Good point, cineteq, and nice way of staging it. I checked...Firmin Lambot won at the age of 35 in 1922. He evidently required a bit of good luck to snatch that yellow jersey (his second) as the cyclist who finished before him DQed because he switched bikes(?). Rules is rules, I guess.
So, Cadel would replace Firmin as the oldest by one month...exactly.

 

[The Hitch]

Im really missing something. Cadels birthday is more important to the Tour than whether Contador's presence?

So after winning 1 Tour Cadel is like Hinault, Mercx Indurain, Antequil and Armstrong put together these days. That some sympolic day in his life 4 months before the race, is more important to the Tour de France than the presence of a 3 time champion.

It took I don't know how many crashes to cause a good enough dent in Contador's form to stop him from winning the Tour. And even then he only had one bad day, and outclimbed everyone and their mother on most other occasions.

Contador can definitely win the Tour and the Giro in the same year.

You can get called a Contador fanboy on these board these days for saying you feel he is a better tter than Evans. So I am absolutely shocked that there have been as yet, no posts declaring that you are on the ignore list after what you wrote here. .

 

[Quixote]

Im really missing something. Cadels birthday is more important to the Tour than whether Contador's presence?

So after winning 1 Tour Cadel is like Hinault, Mercx Indurain, Antequil and Armstrong put together these days. That some sympolic day in his life 4 months before the race, is more important to the Tour de France than the presence of a 3 time champion.
.

Certainly you get no argument from me regarding Contador's status and how it effects all other contenders. Thanks for bringing this morphed thread back to Cadel's logic-torturing omission.
Here's the point, Hitch, as I see it. If the November outcome favors Alberto...then Cadel will face Contador, his age, plus all of the other obstacles that challenge a repeat. If, on the other hand, the November decision goes against Alberto...Cadel will still be 35. Who knows what twelve months adds to an elite athlete (if anything) now days...but, still a factor.

 

[The Hitch]

Certainly you get no argument from me regarding Contador's status and how it effects all other contenders. Thanks for bringing this morphed thread back to Cadel's logic-torturing omission.
Here's the point, Hitch, as I see it. If the November outcome favors Alberto...then Cadel will face Contador, his age, plus all of the other obstacles that challenge a repeat. If, on the other hand, the November decision goes against Alberto...Cadel will still be 35. Who knows what twelve months adds to an elite athlete (if anything) now days...but, still a factor.

Cadel doesnt turn 12 months in a day though. It happens slowly. February 14th is no more important than today. Paolo Tiralongo had his birthday during the Tour and I assure you he seemed exactly the same that day as the one before

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Cadel's age will hardly be a factor relative to his 2011 level, IMO. Though I still think he peaked in 2007. He raced a tactically good race in 2011, MOSTLY, but had all the luck in the world.

Tactically, Andy Schleck was a disaster. It was hard to watch at times. While not on absolute peak form, he should have won this one EASILY and I think he knows it, too.

 

[auscyclefan94]

I haven't been in this thread for ages and I am amazed that it is still going. Interesting to see that many of the frequent posters in here are supporters of Spanish riders especially Contador and Valverde.