Cadel Ponders Future While Preparing For Vuelta

[movingtarget]

That's what I thought too, but then I read this thread and saw at least 3 or 4 people will be shocked if he doesn't win by 10 minutes.

Well the Tour of Utah is a nice race but it's not the Vuelta and he did not manage to podium at Utah anyway. Stage hunting is what he should stick to and BMC would rather have stage wins than top 10 on GC. Any team would. You only have to see how important is is to a team when they win a stage of the Tour. It's the difference between a successful race and a mediocre one. Evans is a smart rider and without GC pressures there is no reason he could not pick up stage wins in any race as he won't be marked as closely. His best TT days and climbing days are long gone but he is still strong. It just makes sense at this stage of his career to look for stage wins. You only had to see how underwhelmed Evans himself was with his top 10 in the Giro.

 

[Rollthedice]

Answer was yes, anyway.

I don't think Nibali will have achieved more than Cadel by the end of his career, but I may be wrong.

At this point, only Boonen and Cancellara achieved more than him.

Cadel has a palmares with a lot of variety and in his prime he would race from March to October and that was refreshing. Shame he never came to the cobbles. He could have done it, I think.

I respect Cadel for everything he achieved, lots of hard work and determination. The stages in Utah that he won were a joy to watch, smart, bold moves based on experience and his strengths as they are right now. But there are two GT riders still active and younger which achieved already much more than Evans, Contador and Nibali. As far as one-day races if that's what you suggest with Boonen and Canc there are many other far more succesful riders than Cadel still active, Valverde and Gilbert spring first in mind. So, he is good but not quite that good.

 

[Coat-O]

I have a question for you guys. If was Cadel was the captain, could he still win one of the Ardennes classics? If yes, which one? And could he do well in the Flanders?

He still has a good sprint, but is it good enough to match Valverde, Kwaitkowski and Gerrans?

 

[Angliru]

I have a question for you guys. If was Cadel was the captain, could he still win one of the Ardennes classics? If yes, which one? And could he do well in the Flanders?

He still has a good sprint, but is it good enough to match Valverde, Kwaitkowski and Gerrans?

Cadel's sprint was never good enough to match Valverde.

 

[Peter von]

I have a question for you guys. If was Cadel was the captain, could he still win one of the Ardennes classics? If yes, which one? And could he do well in the Flanders?

He still has a good sprint, but is it good enough to match Valverde, Kwaitkowski and Gerrans?

I think there's a small chance he could have a Ivanov type victory in Amstel.

i don't think Evans sprint ever was on the same level as those guys, but from time to time he could beat them(or others like them) after a long hard race where he could out tough them or beat them because of a tactical advantage.

 

[The Hegelian]

I have a question for you guys. If was Cadel was the captain, could he still win one of the Ardennes classics? If yes, which one? And could he do well in the Flanders?

He still has a good sprint, but is it good enough to match Valverde, Kwaitkowski and Gerrans?

I thought he could last year - if he made it the sole goal. I think he's lost a bit of punch, so I can't see him winning another FW. I also doubt he could ride away from Gilbert/Gerrans/Valverde on the Cauberg.

But a long, hard LBL - I reckon he could be in the finale for sure; he's still got the horsepower and class to get away from a small group near the end and stay away. Wouldn't win a sprint though, against any of those fellows.

 

[Archibald]

Shame he never came to the cobbles. He could have done it, I think.

I don't think so, Tim...

too small/light for cobblestones

 

[Franklin]

Three years ago he won a mass finish in the TdF (steep uphill) and he's made rather clear that when finishing within a group or with another guy he's tactically very strong.

He's probably to old now, but I'd say you guys are underestimating him. A few years ago he could have been a classics contender for sure. But (rightly so) he focussed on the GT's.

On his palmares: Nibali eclipses Cadels palmares by a lightyear. Three GT's is simply of a completely different level.

 

[Echoes]

But there are two GT riders still active and younger which achieved already much more than Evans, Contador and Nibali. As far as one-day races if that's what you suggest with Boonen and Canc there are many other far more succesful riders than Cadel still active, Valverde and Gilbert spring first in mind. So, he is good but not quite that good.

Contador does not know what a classic is.

Nibali is the rider that comes closest to Evans' career but he is not Evans. He neither has the engine nor the explosiveness. Compared to Evans he's just a climbing specialist. I have the feeling that he never will win a classic, I'd be glad if he proved me wrong but his lactic capacity is very limited... You need to win classics to be an all-time great. Cadel has been World Champion. Has Nibali?

Gilbert only has the explosiveness. He does not have Cadel's engine, period. Cancellara and Boonen have 7 Paris-Roubaix between them. Has Gilbert?

I don't think so, Tim...

too small/light for cobblestones

Stybar isn't too much heavier. But I didn't mean he could win. Just race it and have a good place.

On his palmares: Nibali eclipses Cadels palmares by a lightyear. Three GT's is simply of a completely different level.

Oh I forget, you are one of those guys who only think cycling is GT's ...

 

[Franklin]

Oh I forget, you are one of those guys who only think cycling is GT's ...

What nonsense is that? If you can point out where I say that do so, otherwise don't waste time with strawmen.

But if you rank a FW (not even a monument) and a WC as high as a Vuelta and Giro you are of your rocker. There isn't a pro who would agree with that comparison.

Cycling is much more than GT's, but like it or not, the GT's are the biggest prices in cycling.

 

[Echoes]

Was just paraphrasing one of your own post: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1512994&postcount=150

No, they are not the biggest prizes in cycling. I'd never trade a Paris-Roubaix for a Tour of France and I'd never trade a World Championship on a route like Mendrisio for a Tour of Spain. If only because the Tour of Spain is the prep race for the Worlds and not the reverse. Tours of Spain and of Italy are matters for climbing specialists, anyway. Once you are 65+kg, you are out of contention.

The Worlds' biggest flaw is its ambivalence but if Zolder, Geelong or Copenhagen are worthless, Mendrisio was the best route in years. That was Cadel's greatest achievement.

I don't even consider his Arrow win as a great achievement. In order to build up a palmares, you need wins, in major classics and stage races but also dozens and dozens and dozens of high places in the same major classics and stage races (whether GT's or one-week). Cadel has done that. Nibali too but not to the same extent.

 

[Franklin]

Was just paraphrasing one of your own post: http://forum.cyclingnews.com/showpost.php?p=1512994&postcount=150

As is easy to reread: I was comparing apples with apples; namely 3 GT's with 3 GT's and 2 Monuments with 2 WC (2 TdF+1 Giro+2 MSR versus 3 TdF + 2 WC). That's so close that the weight of the rest of the palmares starts to become an isue. So yeah, it's a strawman and it burns quite easily.

If Cadel had won a Giro or a second TdF we would have had a completely different discussion, but this is Cadel's single TdF + his WC versus a triple crown GT winner.

In order to build up a palmares, you need wins, in major classics and stage races but also dozens and dozens and dozens of high places in the same major classics and stage races (whether GT's or one-week). Cadel has done that. Nibali too but not to the same extent.

This is quite easy to check... and boy is this revealing.

Both have five top ten finishes in monuments. Nibali has two top three finishes in a monument, Evans zero.
Nibali has seven GT podium finishes, Cadel five. Of those Nibali has three wins, Cadel one.

I'm actually a big Cadel fan, but Nibali has obviously already eclipsed Evans palmares.

 

[Echoes]

Radical solution! My own rating (which I feel is much more favourable to Nibali).

Vincenzo Nibali

6 Milan-Turin 2005 1
8 Poland 2006 1
Plouay 2006 2
3 Low Countries 2006 1
19 Giro 2007 2
10 Liège-Bastogne 2008 2
11 Italy 2008 3
20 France 2008 3
6 California 2009 1
10 Tirreno 2009 1
9 Basque Country 2009 1
7 Dauphiné 2009 1
7 France 2009 6
8 Tirreno 2010 1
3 Italy 2010 7
St Italy 2010 2
Tour of Spain 2010 16
5 Emily 2010 1
5 Lombardy 2010 4
5 Tirreno 2011 1
8 Milan-Sanremo 2011 2
8 Liège-Bastogne 2011 2
3 Giro 2011 7
7 Spain 2011 4
10 Emily 2011 1
9 Piedmont 2011 1
2 Oman 2012 1
Tirreno Adriatico 2012 3
3 Milan Sanremo 2012 4
8 Arrow 2012 2
2 Liège-Bastogne 2012 4
3 France 2012 8
9 Milan-Turin 2012 1
7 Oman 2013 1
Tirreno Adriatico 2013 3
2 St Italy 2013 4
Tour of Italy 2013 16
2 Spain 2013 7
4 Worlds 2013 4
7 Dauphiné 2014 1
4 St France 2014 12
Tour of France 2014 20
Vincenzo Nibali 165

Cadel Evans

9 Olympics MTB 1996 1
7 Olympics MTB 2000 1
9 Emily 2001 1
10 Paris Nice 2002 2
6 Basque Country 2002 1
3 Romandy 2002 2
14 Tour of Italy 2002 3
4 Milan Turin 2004 1
4 Lombardy 2004 4
8 Paris-Nice 2005 2
9 Arrow 2005 2
5 Liège Bastogne 2005 4
8 France 2005 6
5 Germany 2005 1
7 California 2006 1
8 Basque Country 2006 1
Tour of Romandy 2006 4
10 Switzerland 2006 1
4 France 2006 8
2 Poland 2006 1
7 Paris-Nice 2007 2
4 Romandy 2007 2
2 Dauphiné 2007 2
2 France 2007 8
4 Spain 2007 7
5 Worlds 2007 4
6 Emily 2007 1
6 Lombardy 2007 2
3 Andalucia 2008 1
2 Basque Country 2008 2
2 Arrow 2008 2
7 Liège Bastogne 2008 2
2 Dauphiné 2008 2
2 France 2008 8
5 Olympics 2008 2
6 Emily 2008 1
4 Basque Country 2009 1
5 Arrow 2009 2
7 Romandy 2009 1
2 Dauphiné 2009 2
28 France 2009 2
3 Spain 2009 7
World Championships 2009 9
4 Emily 2009 1
10 Lombardy 2009 2
6 Down Under 2010 1
3 Tirreno 2010 1
6 International Crit. 2010 1
Walloon Arrow 2010 6
4 Liège Bastogne 2010 4
St Italy 2010 2
5 Italy 2010 7
24 France 2010 2
Tirreno 2011 3
8 Catalunya 2011 1
Tour of Romandy 2011 4
2 Dauphiné 2011 2
St France 2011 3
Tour of France 2011 20
International Criterium 2012 2
3 Dauphiné 2012 2
3 Oman 2013 1
3 Italy 2013 7
2 Down Under 2014 1
5 Haut-Var 2014 1
7 Montepaschi 2014 1
7 Basque Country 2014 1
8 Italy 2014 4
Cadel Evans 199



Eclipsing, not quite. He can still match for the rest of his career but he's already 30 and I don't think he'll have such a long career as Cadel had, but I might be wrong.

 

[Netserk]

Radical solution! My own rating (which I feel is much more favourable to Nibali).

Vincenzo Nibali

6 Milan-Turin 2005 1
8 Poland 2006 1
Plouay 2006 2
3 Low Countries 2006 1
19 Giro 2007 2
10 Liège-Bastogne 2008 2
11 Italy 2008 3
20 France 2008 3
6 California 2009 1
10 Tirreno 2009 1
9 Basque Country 2009 1
7 Dauphiné 2009 1
7 France 2009 6
8 Tirreno 2010 1
3 Italy 2010 7
St Italy 2010 2
Tour of Spain 2010 16
5 Emily 2010 1
5 Lombardy 2010 4
5 Tirreno 2011 1
8 Milan-Sanremo 2011 2
8 Liège-Bastogne 2011 2
3 Giro 2011 7
7 Spain 2011 4
10 Emily 2011 1
9 Piedmont 2011 1
2 Oman 2012 1
Tirreno Adriatico 2012 3
3 Milan Sanremo 2012 4
8 Arrow 2012 2
2 Liège-Bastogne 2012 4
3 France 2012 8
9 Milan-Turin 2012 1
7 Oman 2013 1
Tirreno Adriatico 2013 3
2 St Italy 2013 4
Tour of Italy 2013 16
2 Spain 2013 7
4 Worlds 2013 4
7 Dauphiné 2014 1
4 St France 2014 12
Tour of France 2014 20
Vincenzo Nibali 165

Cadel Evans

9 Olympics MTB 1996 1
7 Olympics MTB 2000 1
9 Emily 2001 1
10 Paris Nice 2002 2
6 Basque Country 2002 1
3 Romandy 2002 2
14 Tour of Italy 2002 3
4 Milan Turin 2004 1
4 Lombardy 2004 4
8 Paris-Nice 2005 2
9 Arrow 2005 2
5 Liège Bastogne 2005 4
8 France 2005 6
5 Germany 2005 1
7 California 2006 1
8 Basque Country 2006 1
Tour of Romandy 2006 4
10 Switzerland 2006 1
4 France 2006 8
2 Poland 2006 1
7 Paris-Nice 2007 2
4 Romandy 2007 2
2 Dauphiné 2007 2
2 France 2007 8
4 Spain 2007 7
5 Worlds 2007 4
6 Emily 2007 1
6 Lombardy 2007 2
3 Andalucia 2008 1
2 Basque Country 2008 2
2 Arrow 2008 2
7 Liège Bastogne 2008 2
2 Dauphiné 2008 2
2 France 2008 8
5 Olympics 2008 2
6 Emily 2008 1
4 Basque Country 2009 1
5 Arrow 2009 2
7 Romandy 2009 1
2 Dauphiné 2009 2
28 France 2009 2
3 Spain 2009 7
World Championships 2009 9
4 Emily 2009 1
10 Lombardy 2009 2
6 Down Under 2010 1
3 Tirreno 2010 1
6 International Crit. 2010 1
Walloon Arrow 2010 6
4 Liège Bastogne 2010 4
St Italy 2010 2
5 Italy 2010 7
24 France 2010 2
Tirreno 2011 3
8 Catalunya 2011 1
Tour of Romandy 2011 4
2 Dauphiné 2011 2
St France 2011 3
Tour of France 2011 20
International Criterium 2012 2
3 Dauphiné 2012 2
3 Oman 2013 1
3 Italy 2013 7
2 Down Under 2014 1
5 Haut-Var 2014 1
7 Montepaschi 2014 1
7 Basque Country 2014 1
8 Italy 2014 4
Cadel Evans 199



Eclipsing, not quite. He can still match for the rest of his career but he's already 30 and I don't think he'll have such a long career as Cadel had, but I might be wrong.

Points for the wins only (same system):

Nibali 78
Evans 53

 

[cineteq]

Nibali is the rider that comes closest to Evans' career but he is not Evans. He neither has the engine nor the explosiveness. Compared to Evans he's just a climbing specialist. I have the feeling that he never will win a classic.

So Nibali is 'just' a climbing specialist. . I wonder what's Quintana? Btw, Nibali was very close to winning LBL.

 

[Echoes]

What I meant is:

in which aspect of the sport is Nibali superior to Evans?

Certainly not in time trials
Certainly not in hill climbs
Certainly and most definitely not in the sprints, lol
Certainly not in long distance racing (classics)
Not even in mountainbike

All that remains is indeed mountain climbs but that is one small aspect of the sport and it's obvious that Nibali is better since he's 4 or 5kg lighter.

So those who think Nibali is superior to Evans must really have an obsession with GT's and with its mountain stages because there's no way he is.

 

[richo36]

I feel this really depends on how you look at it. And what you personally view as more important. I feel if you look at it from a pure road racing prospective it's what you see as more important. Tdf and wc or 3 gts. In my opinion I like the Tdf/wc better as I feel it's more varied. More alround achievement. Out of curiosity how many people have achieved it? While currently there is another rider in the peloton who has achieved 3 gts. But I feel this is totally personal choice. Really close.

However if we look at it as a whole bike career it's cadel. Mountain biking. That just gives cadel the win. It's the same when you look at wiggins when you include his track career. People underrate it.

 

[Red Rick]

What I meant is:

in which aspect of the sport is Nibali superior to Evans?

Certainly not in time trials
Certainly not in hill climbs
Certainly and most definitely not in the sprints, lol
Certainly not in long distance racing (classics)
Not even in mountainbike

All that remains is indeed mountain climbs but that is one small aspect of the sport and it's obvious that Nibali is better since he's 4 or 5kg lighter.

So those who think Nibali is superior to Evans must really have an obsession with GT's and with its mountain stages because there's no way he is.

Nibali has a better track record than Evans in monuments. Nibali podium'ed LBL and MSR, which is almost 300km long.

 

[Afrank]

Nibali has a better track record than Evans in monuments. Nibali podium'ed LBL and MSR, which is almost 300km long.

And doesn't even really suit Nibali that much (at least on the current/recent course), that's got to count for something. That he can find a way to place in a race that isn't suited to him.

 

[Anderis]

Tours of Spain and of Italy are matters for climbing specialists, anyway. Once you are 65+kg, you are out of contention.

Tell that to Hesjedal.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

In my opinion I like the Tdf/wc better as I feel it's more varied. More alround achievement. Out of curiosity how many people have achieved it? While currently there is another rider in the peloton who has achieved 3 gts. But I feel this is totally personal choice. Really close.

Cadel Evans (Tour 2011, Worlds 2009)
Lance Armstrong* (Tour 1999-2005, Worlds 1993)
Jan Ullrich (Tour 1997, Worlds TT 1999 & 2001)
Miguel Indurain (Tour 1991-1995, Worlds TT 1995)
Stephen Roche (Tour 1987, Worlds 1987)
Greg Lemond (Tour 1986, 1989 & 1990, Worlds 1983 & 1989)
Joop Zoetemelk (Tour 1980, Worlds 1985)
Bernard Hinault (Tour 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982 & 1985, Worlds 1980)
Eddy Merckx (Tour 1969-1972 & 1974, Worlds 1967, 1971 & 1974)
Jan Janssen (Tour 1968, Worlds 1964)
Felice Gimondi (Tour 1965, Worlds 1973)
Louison Bobet (Tour 1953-1955, Worlds 1954)
Ferdi Kübler (Tour 1950, Worlds 1951)
Fausto Coppi (Tour 1949 & 1952, Worlds 1953)
Georges Speicher (Tour 1933, Worlds 1933)
Antonin Magne (Tour 1931 & 1934, Worlds 1936)

 

[The Hitch]

What I meant is:

in which aspect of the sport is Nibali superior to Evans?

Certainly not in time trials
Certainly not in hill climbs
Certainly and most definitely not in the sprints, lol
Certainly not in long distance racing (classics)
Not even in mountainbike

All that remains is indeed mountain climbs but that is one small aspect of the sport and it's obvious that Nibali is better since he's 4 or 5kg lighter.

So those who think Nibali is superior to Evans must really have an obsession with GT's and with its mountain stages because there's no way he is.

Nibali.

Who won Tirreno Adriatico by attacking solo in the rain vs the peloton on a little hill 15k out after losing in the mountain.
Who took the Tour by the horns on a cobble stage taking on the cobble specialists and beating them.
Who won the Ardennes like stage of the Tour this year.
Who attacked 20k out in Liege
Who attacked 50k out in Lombardia.
Who out descended Evans for almost a minute on Grappa.
Who took time on all his rivals on a tiny descent in the 2011 Vuelta.

Being mocked as less of a racer than Evans.

puh, please.

Nibali is pretty much the number 1 pure racer of the last decade. In Gt's Contador is better but overall including classics its Nibali.

 

[The Hitch]

Out of curiosity how many people have achieved it? While currently there is another rider in the peloton who has achieved 3 gts. But I feel this is totally personal choice. Really close.

Nibali was the strongest rider in worlds last year though. If not for a crash that had nothing to do with him he would have won it easily.

So its not that he hasn't been good enough to do it, just that he got unlucky.

Though I suppose from the flip side you could say he was lucky that Contador and Froome crashed out of the Tour so it works both ways. A shame that Rui Costa is the main beneficiary in this

 

[cineteq]

Nibali is pretty much the number 1 pure racer of the last decade. In Gt's Contador is better but overall including classics its Nibali.

Wow just wow!

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Wow just wow!

The Hitch allways comes riding on the ponny of truth