Cadel Ponders Future While Preparing For Vuelta

[The Hegelian]

Cadel Evans (Tour 2011, Worlds 2009)
Lance Armstrong* (Tour 1999-2005, Worlds 1993)
Jan Ullrich (Tour 1997, Worlds TT 1999 & 2001)
Miguel Indurain (Tour 1991-1995, Worlds TT 1995)
Stephen Roche (Tour 1987, Worlds 1987)
Greg Lemond (Tour 1986, 1989 & 1990, Worlds 1983 & 1989)
Joop Zoetemelk (Tour 1980, Worlds 1985)
Bernard Hinault (Tour 1978, 1979, 1981, 1982 & 1985, Worlds 1980)
Eddy Merckx (Tour 1969-1972 & 1974, Worlds 1967, 1971 & 1974)
Jan Janssen (Tour 1968, Worlds 1964)
Felice Gimondi (Tour 1965, Worlds 1973)
Louison Bobet (Tour 1953-1955, Worlds 1954)
Ferdi Kübler (Tour 1950, Worlds 1951)
Fausto Coppi (Tour 1949 & 1952, Worlds 1953)
Georges Speicher (Tour 1933, Worlds 1933)
Antonin Magne (Tour 1931 & 1934, Worlds 1936)

Pretty compelling list. The greats. Though not sure TT's should be included.

Nibbles came pretty close last year......but there's a big difference between being close and actually being in rainbow and yellow.

 

[TANK91]

Echoes im sure Nibali can console himself with 2 extra GT's ask Cadel if he would swap the WC for 2 GT's, answer would be yes. Look i am annoyed Nibali won the TDF but the guy is better than Evans he as done stuff Evans can only dream of doing. You saying he only can climb mountains is funny he was weaker than Froome in Tirreno and won it on a "hilly" stage. He also came 4th in the Worlds after animating it. So close to winning LBL aswell from afar. WCRR is so overrated it truly is, im sorry anyone can win look at the sprinter Vainsteins. A GT winner is usually the best. You must think by your logic Costa is better than Purito?

 

[TANK91]

Both have five top ten finishes in monuments. Nibali has two top three finishes in a monument, Evans zero.
Nibali has seven GT podium finishes, Cadel five. Of those Nibali has three wins, Cadel one.

Echoes has no come back at all to that Franklin.

 

[darwin553]

That's what I thought too, but then I read this thread and saw at least 3 or 4 people will be shocked if he doesn't win by 10 minutes.

Where are they?

Nibali.

Who won Tirreno Adriatico by attacking solo in the rain vs the peloton on a little hill 15k out after losing in the mountain.
Who took the Tour by the horns on a cobble stage taking on the cobble specialists and beating them.
Who won the Ardennes like stage of the Tour this year.
Who attacked 20k out in Liege
Who attacked 50k out in Lombardia.
Who out descended Evans for almost a minute on Grappa.
Who took time on all his rivals on a tiny descent in the 2011 Vuelta.

Being mocked as less of a racer than Evans.

puh, please.

Nibali is pretty much the number 1 pure racer of the last decade. In Gt's Contador is better but overall including classics its Nibali.

That right there diminishes your post count in half.

 

[darwin553]

Let me make this simple for you Nibali fanatics (bearing in mind this is over their careers so far and taking into account the age of Cadel and his achievements)-

1. Cadel better than Nibali in the classics - check
2. Cadel better than Nibali in ITTs - check
3. Cadel better in the sprints - check
4. Cadel a better record in the worlds - check
5. Cadel better than Nibali in the GTs - well if we stop the clock now I do concede that Nibali has the greater record but still Cadel's GT record isn't too far of it and we have to remember what I mentioned above we are yet to find out whether Nibali will fall off the cliff like another famous Italian rider in Basso

Taking all that into account, Cadel wins!

 

[The Hitch]

You refer to one of the riders by his first name (the other by his surname), come from his country and have his avatar. Oh and you happen to score everything in his favour.

Pure coincidence im sure.

 

[Walkman]

You refer to one of the riders by his first name (the other by his surname), come from his country and have his avatar. Oh and you happen to score everything in his favour.

Pure coincidence im sure.

You are not exactly objective either, so why should he be?

 

[kingjr]

Though not sure TT's should be included.

Why not?

__

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Pretty compelling list. The greats. Though not sure TT's should be included.

Nibbles came pretty close last year......but there's a big difference between being close and actually being in rainbow and yellow.

Even if you take out the two TT Worlds winners (Ullrich and Indurain), you're left with 13 (14 including Armstrong), as opposed to 6 winners of all three GTs (Anquetil 1963, Gimondi 1968, Merckx 1974, Hinault 1980, Contador 2008, Nibali 2014), which would suggest winning all 3 GTs is the rarer achievement. Even if you bring into play the history aspect, there is a big gap between Hinault's last GT win (1985 Tour) and Contador's first (2007 Tour) where nobody managed this achievement.

5. Cadel better than Nibali in the GTs - well if we stop the clock now I do concede that Nibali has the greater record but still Cadel's GT record isn't too far of it and we have to remember what I mentioned above we are yet to find out whether Nibali will fall off the cliff like another famous Italian rider in Basso

Nibali has now podiumed more GTs than Evans (7 to 5) and won more (3 to 1), and is 29. Still in peak years. Evans is now unlikely to add many more to his list of GT podiums. It is purely a reach at this point in time to argue a case for Evans in GTs. Much as there was much debate on who had the better GT record, Evans or Menchov, until Evans finally converted his podiums into a win in 2011.

In short stage races, Evans has won:
Tirreno-Adriatico (.WT)
2x Tour de Romandie (.WT)
Critérium International (.HC)
Giro del Trentino (.HC)
2x Österreich Rundfahrt (.HC)
Brixia Tour (.1)
Settimana Coppi e Bartali (.1)

Nibali has won:
2x Tirreno-Adriatico (.WT)
2x Giro del Trentino (.1 in 2008, .HC in 2013)
Giro di Padania (.1)
Tour de San Luis (.1)
Tour de Slovénie (.1)

Comparison, Evans has an extra WT race and three more .HC races, and two fewer .1 races. Point: Evans. Although Evans' results come over a much longer period of time - Evans' first such win was the 2001 Österreich Rundfahrt and most recent is Trentino this year, while Nibali's span from Trentino 2008 to the same race in 2013.

Franklin pointed out that while Evans has the better results in Classics (1x Worlds win, 1x Flèche win), Nibali has actually podiumed more monuments than Evans (which is somewhat surprising). Judging their one-day palmarès is quite difficult, because Evans has mostly targeted only the biggest events and accumulated a number of good placements in these, whereas Nibali has also acquired an enviable win list of 1.HC and 1.1 races in Italy earlier in his career (Trofeo Melinda, Giro dell'Apennino, GP Città di Camaiore, Giro della Toscana, GP Industriana e Artigianato Lanciano) plus a less important WT one day race (Plouay). Evans has the better palmarès, you would say, in respect of one day races, but Nibali is as close to Evans' palmarès in these than Evans is to Nibali's in the GTs, considering both have a number of good placements, Nibali has more of them in the most important races (monuments) but Evans has a couple of major wins which Nibali does not have.

Evans is the better sprinter, but Nibali is the better descender, a category which you did not include.

A big problem is not so much the question "who is better" but "who is more talented"? A big problem in judging Evans is that he did not produce the results that his talent would suggest he merited for the majority of his peak years - he had trouble converting those good placements into victories and especially in the big stage races seemed to lack that killer instinct that Nibali has shown he has; this is an issue that he has set about rectifying impressively over the last five years.

However, it is then clearly shown in their stage records at GTs - at the age Nibali is now, Evans had never won a GT stage, let alone overall, and the one he did win aged 30 was by default after Vino's DQ. Since then he has added 1 Giro stage and 1 Tour stage to his record. By contrast, Nibali has won 4 Giro stages and 4 Tour stages (one of the Giro stages was by default in 2011), not including TTTs.

The other thing is potential added palmarès. Even if Nibali does "do a Basso" and cease to perform at the top level, he is unlikely to add much less to his palmarès at this point than Evans will bearing in mind Evans' advancing age. On this front Nibali has likely a similar worst case scenario and a much better best case scenario than Evans.

I am not willing to argue that Vincenzo Nibali is definitely more talented than Cadel Evans, because I don't think I could genuinely argue that comfortably. But I do know whose palmarès I would rather retire with, if both riders retired today: and it's the Sicilian's.

 

[The Hitch]

You are not exactly objective either, so why should he be?

Care to explain what you think my dog in this fight is?

 

[Afrank]

Let me make this simple for you Nibali fanatics (bearing in mind this is over their careers so far and taking into account the age of Cadel and his achievements)-

1. Cadel better than Nibali in the classics - check
2. Cadel better than Nibali in ITTs - check
3. Cadel better in the sprints - check
4. Cadel a better record in the worlds - check
5. Cadel better than Nibali in the GTs - well if we stop the clock now I do concede that Nibali has the greater record but still Cadel's GT record isn't too far of it and we have to remember what I mentioned above we are yet to find out whether Nibali will fall off the cliff like another famous Italian rider in Basso

Taking all that into account, Cadel wins!

How about descents? Nibali.
How about climbing? Nibali.
How about attacking? Nibali.
How about Cobbles? Hmm, I'm going with Nibali, this years cobble stage performance in the rain was more impressive then Evans in 2010.

And can we really use worlds as a fair means to judge the two? It's completely dependent on the course, which we all know varies and isn't often suited to GC's like Evans and Nibali. Just because Evans managed to get away once and win doesn't automatically make him better. The current Nibali could have likely done a similar performance on the course IMO. Don't forget Nibali was one of the strongest last year and if he had not crashed earlier may have won it.

And on classics, I feel that more just comes down to his sprint. Nibali can't sprint for sh!t, which means he will always have that handicap in the classics. Still managing to place in some very high profile races with that is impressive to me. That's probably me just being a Nibali fan.

 

[Walkman]

How about descents? Nibali.
How about climbing? Nibali.
How about attacking? Nibali.
How about Cobbles? Hmm, I'm going with Nibali, this years cobble stage performance in the rain was more impressive then Evans in 2010.

And can we really use worlds as a fair means to judge the two? It's completely dependent on the course, which we all know varies and isn't often suited to GC's like Evans and Nibali. Just because Evans managed to get away once and win doesn't automatically make him better. The current Nibali could have likely done a similar performance on the course IMO. Don't forget Nibali was one of the strongest last year and if he had not crashed earlier may have won it.

And on classics, I feel that more just comes down to his sprint. Nibali can't sprint for sh!t, which means he will always have that handicap in the classics. Still managing to place in some very high profile races with that is impressive to me. That's probably me just being a Nibali fan.

Not so sure Nibali is better on descents than Evans. I say they are pretty even.

Here are som examples of Evans descending:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yISN7pgfCtY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=xyv4u4kLwU4#t=1605

Just a couple of days ago he displayed some great descending in Tour of Utha.

 

[Netserk]

Even if you take out the two TT Worlds winners (Ullrich and Indurain), you're left with 13 (14 including Armstrong), as opposed to 6 winners of all three GTs (Anquetil 1963, Gimondi 1968, Merckx 1974, Hinault 1980, Contador 2008, Nibali 2014), which would suggest winning all 3 GTs is the rarer achievement. Even if you bring into play the history aspect, there is a big gap between Hinault's last GT win (1985 Tour) and Contador's first (2007 Tour) where nobody managed this achievement.



Nibali has now podiumed more GTs than Evans (7 to 5) and won more (3 to 1), and is 29. Still in peak years. Evans is now unlikely to add many more to his list of GT podiums. It is purely a reach at this point in time to argue a case for Evans in GTs. Much as there was much debate on who had the better GT record, Evans or Menchov, until Evans finally converted his podiums into a win in 2011.

In short stage races, Evans has won:
Tirreno-Adriatico (.WT)
2x Tour de Romandie (.WT)
Critérium International (.HC)
Giro del Trentino (.HC)
2x Österreich Rundfahrt (.HC)
Brixia Tour (.1)
Settimana Coppi e Bartali (.1)

Nibali has won:
2x Tirreno-Adriatico (.WT)
2x Giro del Trentino (.1 in 2008, .HC in 2013)
Giro di Padania (.1)
Tour de San Luis (.1)
Tour de Slovénie (.1)

Comparison, Evans has an extra WT race and three more .HC races, and two fewer .1 races. Point: Evans. Although Evans' results come over a much longer period of time - Evans' first such win was the 2001 Österreich Rundfahrt and most recent is Trentino this year, while Nibali's span from Trentino 2008 to the same race in 2013.

Franklin pointed out that while Evans has the better results in Classics (1x Worlds win, 1x Flèche win), Nibali has actually podiumed more monuments than Evans (which is somewhat surprising). Judging their one-day palmarès is quite difficult, because Evans has mostly targeted only the biggest events and accumulated a number of good placements in these, whereas Nibali has also acquired an enviable win list of 1.HC and 1.1 races in Italy earlier in his career (Trofeo Melinda, Giro dell'Apennino, GP Città di Camaiore, Giro della Toscana, GP Industriana e Artigianato Lanciano) plus a less important WT one day race (Plouay). Evans has the better palmarès, you would say, in respect of one day races, but Nibali is as close to Evans' palmarès in these than Evans is to Nibali's in the GTs, considering both have a number of good placements, Nibali has more of them in the most important races (monuments) but Evans has a couple of major wins which Nibali does not have.

Evans is the better sprinter, but Nibali is the better descender, a category which you did not include.

A big problem is not so much the question "who is better" but "who is more talented"? A big problem in judging Evans is that he did not produce the results that his talent would suggest he merited for the majority of his peak years - he had trouble converting those good placements into victories and especially in the big stage races seemed to lack that killer instinct that Nibali has shown he has; this is an issue that he has set about rectifying impressively over the last five years.

However, it is then clearly shown in their stage records at GTs - at the age Nibali is now, Evans had never won a GT stage, let alone overall, and the one he did win aged 30 was by default after Vino's DQ. Since then he has added 1 Giro stage and 1 Tour stage to his record. By contrast, Nibali has won 4 Giro stages and 4 Tour stages (one of the Giro stages was by default in 2011), not including TTTs.

The other thing is potential added palmarès. Even if Nibali does "do a Basso" and cease to perform at the top level, he is unlikely to add much less to his palmarès at this point than Evans will bearing in mind Evans' advancing age. On this front Nibali has likely a similar worst case scenario and a much better best case scenario than Evans.

I am not willing to argue that Vincenzo Nibali is definitely more talented than Cadel Evans, because I don't think I could genuinely argue that comfortably. But I do know whose palmarès I would rather retire with, if both riders retired today: and it's the Sicilian's.

If you are going to add 'false' wins (though I don't know why you would), you should give Nibali another Giro stage (stage 14, 2013) and a Vuelta stage (stage 20, 2010).

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Mosquera, unlike his teammate García da Pena, has never been officially removed from the 2010 Vuelta, whereas the wins courtesy of Contador's and Vino's DQs are now official.

I don't know the status with regards to Santambrogio's win in the 2013 Giro.

 

[Netserk]

Mosquera, unlike his teammate García da Pena, has never been officially removed from the 2010 Vuelta, whereas the wins courtesy of Contador's and Vino's DQs are now official.

I don't know the status with regards to Santambrogio's win in the 2013 Giro.

Hmm, was it later overturned or did the organizers just not strip his results?

http://www.uci.ch/Modules/BUILTIN/g...bjTypeCode=FILE&type=FILE&id=NjY5MTE&LangId=1

Disqualification of Sporting Results: All the results obtained since 12.09.2010

 

[Libertine Seguros]

According to the Vuelta's official site Mosquera is gone. However because García tested +ve for EPO on the retest after the HES was detected his results were stripped straightaway, whereas it took over a year for a decision to be made on Mosquera, so I think most sources simply haven't updated it after the ban was finally brought into being.

Scary thought: that means Peter Velits has now been 2nd in a GT.

 

[Netserk]

As for puffy cheeks, his 'disqualification started' Giro d'Italia 2013, so I interpret that as all his Giro results have been stripped.

http://www.uci.ch/Modules/BUILTIN/g...bjTypeCode=FILE&type=FILE&id=Nzk5OTY&LangId=1

 

[darwin553]

How about descents? Nibali.
How about climbing? Nibali.
How about attacking? Nibali.
How about Cobbles? Hmm, I'm going with Nibali, this years cobble stage performance in the rain was more impressive then Evans in 2010.

Apart from the cobbles, each of the three things you mention is covered by my assessment under their respective pedigrees at the GTs (probably also to some degree in the classics as well).

However, I disagree with you on the descents. Cadel is clearly better. Anyone who has followed this sport will generally say this.

But in terms of the cobbles, one year's performance doesn't give Nibali the edge over Evans.

Nibali has now podiumed more GTs than Evans (7 to 5) and won more (3 to 1), and is 29. Still in peak years. Evans is now unlikely to add many more to his list of GT podiums. It is purely a reach at this point in time to argue a case for Evans in GTs. Much as there was much debate on who had the better GT record, Evans or Menchov, until Evans finally converted his podiums into a win in 2011.

In short stage races, Evans has won:
Tirreno-Adriatico (.WT)
2x Tour de Romandie (.WT)
Critérium International (.HC)
Giro del Trentino (.HC)
2x Österreich Rundfahrt (.HC)
Brixia Tour (.1)
Settimana Coppi e Bartali (.1)

Nibali has won:
2x Tirreno-Adriatico (.WT)
2x Giro del Trentino (.1 in 2008, .HC in 2013)
Giro di Padania (.1)
Tour de San Luis (.1)
Tour de Slovénie (.1)

Comparison, Evans has an extra WT race and three more .HC races, and two fewer .1 races. Point: Evans. Although Evans' results come over a much longer period of time - Evans' first such win was the 2001 Österreich Rundfahrt and most recent is Trentino this year, while Nibali's span from Trentino 2008 to the same race in 2013.

Franklin pointed out that while Evans has the better results in Classics (1x Worlds win, 1x Flèche win), Nibali has actually podiumed more monuments than Evans (which is somewhat surprising). Judging their one-day palmarès is quite difficult, because Evans has mostly targeted only the biggest events and accumulated a number of good placements in these, whereas Nibali has also acquired an enviable win list of 1.HC and 1.1 races in Italy earlier in his career (Trofeo Melinda, Giro dell'Apennino, GP Città di Camaiore, Giro della Toscana, GP Industriana e Artigianato Lanciano) plus a less important WT one day race (Plouay). Evans has the better palmarès, you would say, in respect of one day races, but Nibali is as close to Evans' palmarès in these than Evans is to Nibali's in the GTs, considering both have a number of good placements, Nibali has more of them in the most important races (monuments) but Evans has a couple of major wins which Nibali does not have.

Evans is the better sprinter, but Nibali is the better descender, a category which you did not include.

A big problem is not so much the question "who is better" but "who is more talented"? A big problem in judging Evans is that he did not produce the results that his talent would suggest he merited for the majority of his peak years - he had trouble converting those good placements into victories and especially in the big stage races seemed to lack that killer instinct that Nibali has shown he has; this is an issue that he has set about rectifying impressively over the last five years.

However, it is then clearly shown in their stage records at GTs - at the age Nibali is now, Evans had never won a GT stage, let alone overall, and the one he did win aged 30 was by default after Vino's DQ. Since then he has added 1 Giro stage and 1 Tour stage to his record. By contrast, Nibali has won 4 Giro stages and 4 Tour stages (one of the Giro stages was by default in 2011), not including TTTs.

The other thing is potential added palmarès. Even if Nibali does "do a Basso" and cease to perform at the top level, he is unlikely to add much less to his palmarès at this point than Evans will bearing in mind Evans' advancing age. On this front Nibali has likely a similar worst case scenario and a much better best case scenario than Evans.

I am not willing to argue that Vincenzo Nibali is definitely more talented than Cadel Evans, because I don't think I could genuinely argue that comfortably. But I do know whose palmarès I would rather retire with, if both riders retired today: and it's the Sicilian's.

The thing is, and as you should appreciate in my argument, it wasn't necessarily about their results up until this point of time as you have to recognise that the difference in age will skew the comparison - it is whether in 5 years time that Nibali can continue to challenge in GTs as Evans has been able to or will, as I said above, will fall of the cliff like Basso has.

You refer to one of the riders by his first name (the other by his surname), come from his country and have his avatar. Oh and you happen to score everything in his favour.

Pure coincidence im sure.

Did you bother to read it? I put the GTs in Nibali's favour (at this point in time though )

 

[Afrank]

Apart from the cobbles, each of the three things you mention is covered by my assessment under their respective pedigrees at the GTs (probably also to some degree in the classics as well).

However, I disagree with you on the descents. Cadel is clearly better. Anyone who has followed this sport will generally say this.

But in terms of the cobbles, one year's performance doesn't give Nibali the edge over Evans.

Not really sure which assessment your talking about. But they weren't covered in the post I was replying too.

Nibali and Evans are pretty close to each other in a number of things I'd say. Descending being one of them. They both know, as Vincenzo says, how to ride their bike. I give Nibali a slight edge though, for out-descending Nibali on Mounte Grappe in 2010 Giro, and of course...https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuGzA_o0HBc descending bunny hop FTW!

On cobbles, we really don't have anything more to judge them on then one year though, do we? Neither on average compete in cobbled races like PR. If I'm not mistaken, I believe Evans in 2010 Tour and Nibali in 2014 Tour are the only instances we have to judge their cobble skills on. 2014 was rougher conditions and Nibali was also more impressive then Evans 2010 was IMO.

Did you bother to read it? I put the GTs in Nibali's favour (at this point in time though )

At this point? I'm curious, do you expect Evans to better Nibali's current GT record at 37?

 

[Luigi_Max]

Nibali is clearly a better descender than Evans. Evans is very good but Nibali is simply better. I do not see how there can be any doubt about this.

 

[darwin553]

I give Nibali a slight edge though, for out-descending Nibali on Mounte Grappe in 2010 Giro, and of course... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuGzA_o0HBc descending bunny hop FTW!

Not surprised you think Nibali can beat Nibali!

At this point? I'm curious, do you expect Evans to better Nibali's current GT record at 37?

No in 5 years time for Nibali which I think is the more appropriate time to compare the records. You know, after Froome is done with him.

Nibali is clearly a better descender than Evans. Evans is very good but Nibali is simply better. I do not see how there can be any doubt about this.

lol

 

[Luigi_Max]

....................

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Apart from the cobbles, each of the three things you mention is covered by my assessment under their respective pedigrees at the GTs (probably also to some degree in the classics as well).

However, I disagree with you on the descents. Cadel is clearly better. Anyone who has followed this sport will generally say this.

But in terms of the cobbles, one year's performance doesn't give Nibali the edge over Evans.

Why would "anyone who has followed this sport" say Evans is a better descender? Most fans seem to be in agreement Nibali is the best descender out of GC contenders in the péloton at present. For a while I thought him the natural successor to Il Falco, however he seems to be a better rider all-round than Savoldelli was at this point in time. And while Evans is generally a very good descender, he still got made to look like an idiot by David Arroyo in 2010 - and he (Evans) made few gains on Nibali despite the Shark having to pilot Ivan freaking Basso down the Mortirolo. Evans is a good descender who has the occasional bad day; Nibali is an excellent descender who tends not to.

The thing is, and as you should appreciate in my argument, it wasn't necessarily about their results up until this point of time as you have to recognise that the difference in age will skew the comparison - it is whether in 5 years time that Nibali can continue to challenge in GTs as Evans has been able to or will, as I said above, will fall of the cliff like Basso has.



Did you bother to read it? I put the GTs in Nibali's favour (at this point in time though )

No in 5 years time for Nibali which I think is the more appropriate time to compare the records. You know, after Froome is done with him.

This part of your argument makes no sense.

You have agreed that at present Nibali's GT record is better than Evans. Then said we will judge again in 5 years' time. But you say that you don't expect Evans to bridge the gap between the two at his age.

So, given Nibali already has a better GT record than Evans, and you don't expect Evans to improve his GT record at this point in time... how exactly do you think the judgement will change in 5 years' time? Look, even if Nibali sucks out loud for the next 5 years, his GT record will outstrip Cadel's. Longevity is good, but wins trump placements, and Nibali has, right now, more GT podiums and more GT wins than Cuddles. If you don't think Evans is going to win or podium any more GTs, how is he going to catch up with Nibali's palmarès, and how likely is a scenario where Nibali fails to achieve anything at GT level again?

Oh, and Basso 'fell off the GT cliff' at 34. He won a GT - beating Evans - at 32. Even though he was no longer a threat to win, his placements after the 2010 Giro - 7th in the 2011 Tour, 5th in the 2012 Giro - are no worse than Evans is managing now, it's just Evans was able to keep it going for longer, winning in 2011 before dropping off the cliff (the 2013 Giro podium was a bit fortuitous thanks to all the mountain cancellations). Nibali is 29, so even if he does collapse like Basso, he has at least a couple more years near the top in him.

 

[darwin553]

Why would "anyone who has followed this sport" say Evans is a better descender? Most fans seem to be in agreement Nibali is the best descender out of GC contenders in the péloton at present.

Whilst I don't concede that Nibali is a better descender than Evans at present, this isn't a comparison about present abilities but overall what they have achieved.

You have agreed that at present Nibali's GT record is better than Evans. Then said we will judge again in 5 years' time. But you say that you don't expect Evans to bridge the gap between the two at his age.

To clarify, I do think Nibali has a slightly better record than Evans. But I concede Evans best days are behind him in terms of 2011 form and what not, so I don't expect him to bridge the gap between the two riders.

All I can do now is look at what Evans has done between the age Nibali is and the age he is, and ascertain, within this next 5 year period, whether Nibali will be able to sustain his form as Evans has proved during this period.

Nibali is 29, so even if he does collapse like Basso, he has at least a couple more years near the top in him.

Yes and if so Evans will be regarded as having the better GT record.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Whilst I don't concede that Nibali is a better descender than Evans at present, this isn't a comparison about present abilities but overall what they have achieved.

The question then is why not, and why did you make the bold statement that anyone who follows the sport would call Evans a better descender?

To clarify, I do think Nibali has a slightly better record than Evans. But I concede Evans best days are behind him in terms of 2011 form and what not, so I don't expect him to bridge the gap between the two riders.

All I can do now is look at what Evans has done between the age Nibali is and the age he is, and ascertain, within this next 5 year period, whether Nibali will be able to sustain his form as Evans has proved during this period.

But if his record is already better than Evans', what does it matter if he can't sustain his form? Do you think Zoetemelk is a better rider than Merckx because he had more longevity?

Yes and if so Evans will be regarded as having the better GT record.

I don't understand.

So Evans has won 1 GT, Nibali 3. Both have won the Tour, so the trump card Evans held in the debates against Menchov is no longer in play.
Evans has podiumed 5 GTs, Nibali 7. At the age Nibali is now, Evans had podiumed 0 GTs.

And you will be willing to say Evans is the better GT rider - not just in your personal opinion but in general popular regard - even if Nibali adds more podiums in the next couple of years then drops away completely, on the basis that Evans could still come 8th in a GT at 37?

This makes literally no sense.

What difference does the age they get the results at count? After all, yes you can argue if Nibali falls away that he had all his best results early and didn't have the longevity of Evans, but you could just as equally argue that Evans didn't start hitting the big time palmarès-wise until he was 30, at which point Nibali had already accumulated the palmarès of a great.