Can Sky be destroyed be in the Tour?

[Cimber]

you are underestimating the importance of racing fitness that can't be achieved with training. And except for 6 days in san luis contador was without racing for over 12 months.

And inb4 people come with claims that i am talking nonsense, i am just saying what people like perico delgado, sean kelly and a few others pros have said.

This.
12 months without racing is immense. No training that substitute that

 

[JimPanzen]

This.
12 months without racing is immense. No training that substitute that

And that's why I also have hopes that Contador will have an immense boost of form towards the tour. I think this year isn't like recent years, were his early season form pretty much indicated his abilities during the tour. He might still have an enomous potential left for July which should show with the race miles.

 

[Contadoraus Schlecks]

Lets not forget that Froome has had another course of treatment for bilharzia at the start of the year(http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2013/jan/25/chris-froome-team-sky-tour-de-france). That must have affected his performances in Oman and T-A. So another 3 months to build 'form' and stay clear of bilharzia and he'll thrash Contador and co by several minutes.

Can you confirm that it has a negative effect on his performance?

 

[El Pistolero]

If other riders do to Sky what Eddy Merckx did to Freddy Maertens at the 1974 WC, sure, why not.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

you are underestimating the importance of racing fitness that can't be achieved with training

There is a team that trains harder than they race and are able to peak season long, so, could you back this up?

The Spanish, French an Italian teams should form a block if they want to have any chance at all.

 

[Winterfold]

People are using terms like 'unfit' when really they mean 'lacking the last 1% of performance that comes from being race-sharp'?

Ignoring clinic stuff Contador was clearly missing an edge in outright performance at the Vuelta (which he used to tactical nous to overcome), and Froome clearly looked tired after the first week. Not really surprising in either case.

Sky are not advocating a 'no racing' approach to training - they are advocating a racing to race, training to train approach - if you are just sitting in the bunch in a race not aiming to win then you are not racing you are training, probably quite weakly, and wont get that last 1% either.

Do your training hard, then use racing to get the last bit of performance you will never get without competition.

This does seem quite obvious, but contrary to the received wisdom of many.

 

[Parrulo]

Didn't Contador also race the ENECO and something else ? So what is the explanation for Froome's performance drop off from the Tour to the Vuelta if is is not fatigue ? He wasn't ill. Kelly rightly praised Contador for a great performance with limited racing but Froome ? I think it had to be fatigue like Contador in the 2011 Tour. It had to have some impact.

do you really think eneco was enough to regain racing fitness? i dare say he still hasn't fully regained it as 3 weeks after the vuelta he had another 3 months without any racing.

just look at valverde last year, he raced hard right from the start of the season on the TdU and only really found his form for the vuelta.

And where did i say froome's drop in performance wasn't due to fatigue? it obviously was, although i do think that even if he kept his early vuelta form for the whole race he wouldn't be able to win as in arrate he already didn't look as sharp as he looked in the tour.

And one last thought, call it wishful thinking if you wish but comparing contador's 2011 tour to froome's 2012 vuelta i think contador, when considering all the conditions, performed much better and that could be considered a sign that contador has a better recovery.

 

[BYOP88]

Can you confirm that it has a negative effect on his performance?

From the piece and Froome's words;

"It means these big pills that basically poison you and kill everything in your stomach and I took that in the last week.

But this stuff must be the good poison!

 

[will10]

When was the last time someone managed to solo away from the sky train? I think only Alberto in 2009 shape can do that.

Quintana

 

[postmanhat]

They could destroy themselves.

Yes, if the Borg don't change their tactics then 'Persitance could be futile'............anyone?

I don't think the Sky Train will derail at the Tour with Froome, Porte, Wiggins and the rest of the A team. Even if all the other teams sat down together and worked out a masterplan. They look too strong at the moment.

Would like to think though that coming badly unstuck at Catalunya, and to a lesser extent at T-A might lead to a bit of a rethink. Maybe let another team have a go on the front for change, just to see what it feels like

 

[gooner]

do you really think eneco was enough to regain racing fitness? i dare say he still hasn't fully regained it as 3 weeks after the vuelta he had another 3 months without any racing.

And with the possibility of not doing F-W or LBL(I think he should race one if not both of these) he could have no racing for the next 2 months after Pais Vasco until the Dauphine. In his current racing condition it would be utterly absurd to not stick in Romandie or Cali to his calendar as well. At the moment he can't sustain the quick accelerations over the longer periods like he used to. Only through more continuous racing can I see him getting this back. The last thing he needs now is another period of inactivity.

 

[movingtarget]

do you really think eneco was enough to regain racing fitness? i dare say he still hasn't fully regained it as 3 weeks after the vuelta he had another 3 months without any racing.

just look at valverde last year, he raced hard right from the start of the season on the TdU and only really found his form for the vuelta.

And where did i say froome's drop in performance wasn't due to fatigue? it obviously was, although i do think that even if he kept his early vuelta form for the whole race he wouldn't be able to win as in arrate he already didn't look as sharp as he looked in the tour.

And one last thought, call it wishful thinking if you wish but comparing contador's 2011 tour to froome's 2012 vuelta i think contador, when considering all the conditions, performed much better and that could be considered a sign that contador has a better recovery.

I never said that ENECO was enough but you did not mention it. Maybe Contador did do better in the Tour but the Vuelta was a harder race than the Tour in 2011 and Froome's second GT for the year was harder than the won he had just completed. Contador has very good recovery as the best GC riders must have but I think it is difficult comparing races and fitness levels and often the riders make our predictions look foolish by not performing or performing much better than expected.

 

[DominicDecoco]

The 'Sky train' has already failed several times this season. No reason why it shouldn't be able to in July as well.

 

[wwabbit]

How do you define the Sky Train 'failing'?
The purpose of the Sky Train has been to put the team leader in a good position to finish off the climb with a good result. This usually means reeling in the breakaways as well as the attacks from the rivals.

In TA Stage 5, the Sky Train delivered Froome to the final climb but Froome cracked on the climb, that's not a failure of the Train. In Catalunya Stage 3, the Sky Train delivered Wiggins to the flamme rouge but Wiggins didn't have the legs to win the stage, that's not a failure of the Train.

Only real Train failure this season so far has been Catalunya Stage 4, which had its own weird circumstances as well.

The presence of the Sky Train doesn't make the Sky leader unbeatable, but it does reduce some of the options a rival will have to beat the Sky leader. It is probably not possible to make a long range attack and hope that the rivals behind look at each other for someone to lead the chase instead of organising a chase.

It is still possible to beat the leader by simply being a stronger climber, and attack when the leader is finally isolated. Of course, you have the situation where Porte and Froome are still pretty strong when isolated, and an isolated Wiggins may not lose enough time that can't be taken back in an ITT.

 

[Gloin22]

How do you define the Sky Train 'failing'?
The purpose of the Sky Train has been to put the team leader in a good position to finish off the climb with a good result. This usually means reeling in the breakaways as well as the attacks from the rivals.

In TA Stage 5, the Sky Train delivered Froome to the final climb but Froome cracked on the climb, that's not a failure of the Train. In Catalunya Stage 3, the Sky Train delivered Wiggins to the flamme rouge but Wiggins didn't have the legs to win the stage, that's not a failure of the Train.

Only real Train failure this season so far has been Catalunya Stage 4, which had its own weird circumstances as well.

The presence of the Sky Train doesn't make the Sky leader unbeatable, but it does reduce some of the options a rival will have to beat the Sky leader. It is probably not possible to make a long range attack and hope that the rivals behind look at each other for someone to lead the chase instead of organising a chase.

It is still possible to beat the leader by simply being a stronger climber, and attack when the leader is finally isolated. Of course, you have the situation where Porte and Froome are still pretty strong when isolated, and an isolated Wiggins may not lose enough time that can't be taken back in an ITT.

Agreed.

And to say, Froome has a small weakness on many sharp hills, like few stages in Tirreno. NOTHING like that will be in Tour.

And Froome right now is the best climber in the peleton, and unlike Wiggins, he can actually attack and finish it off as he shown many times this season already.

I believe Sky will win Tour. However I do believe that Sky can be beaten at Giro, due to Wiggins lack of great acceleration and relatively poor ability on the sharp hills.

 

[Pentacycle]

The 'Sky train' has already failed several times this season. No reason why it shouldn't be able to in July as well.

Those were just minor errors. Remember 2009, when Contador got a hunger knock in Paris-Nice? People were suggesting he could get the same in the Tour, which didn't happen eventually. Such scenarios are most unlikely, the Sky train failing to deliver, or Contador failing to destroy in 2009. Last year Sky did have some worse days as well, of course you can't keep the same level for three weeks. This year they could have a bad day, and this possible Sky off-day is the only thing keeping Froome from winning yellow.

 

[ferryman]

Agreed.

And to say, Froome has a small weakness on many sharp hills, like few stages in Tirreno. NOTHING like that will be in Tour.

And Froome right now is the best climber in the peleton, and unlike Wiggins, he can actually attack and finish it off as he shown many times this season already.

I believe Sky will win Tour. However I do believe that Sky can be beaten at Giro, due to Wiggins lack of great acceleration and relatively poor ability on the sharp hills.

Do you really believe that a fit Froome is a better climber than a fit Contador? I don't by a country mile but would be interested to know why you do, sans train. Contador is no mug. Read his comments on his observations on seeing the Sky train this year first hand for the first time (Let's leave Vuelta 2012 out of the argument for a number of reasons). It will be interesting to see how it plays out when it matters.

 

[Mongolian Torque]

Umm, Sky Train will arrive late into the station...

I'm pretty sure Contidope with have good legs this year to derail Sky Train and leave their train standing still...However, who knows.Maybe Froome and his stoopid glasses will do something.

 

[Angliru]

I'm pretty sure Contidope with have good legs this year to derail Sky Train and leave their train standing still...However, who knows.Maybe Froome and his stoopid glasses will do something.

This isn't the clinic, which is where your Contador reference belongs.

 

[Jelantik]

I'm pretty sure Contidope with have good legs this year to derail Sky Train and leave their train standing still...However, who knows.Maybe Froome and his stoopid glasses will do something.

you remind me of reading velonews comment. Bring your reference to contadors name to the clinic please..

 

[wwabbit]

And Froome right now is the best climber in the peleton

Do you really believe that a fit Froome is a better climber than a fit Contador? I don't by a country mile but would be interested to know why you do, sans train.

Let's now strawman the issue, he did say "right now" and based on recent results he is correct. We can only speculate what their relative fitness levels will be when the Tour comes, it's just a matter of whether you want to speculate based on historical fitness levels or speculate based on on current fitness levels.

 

[IndianCyclist]

We know the Sky train is good. This limits the long range attacks (5-6 km or more). The short range attacks(2-3 km) are dependent on the main guys- Froome, Contador, Schleck. So far Froome has matched Contador in that.
But please remember the tenacity of Contador (Vuelta 2012) and the tactical nous of Bjarne Riis. There are hillier stages where Contador's acceleration will be critical and Froome( no Ardennes Classics palmares) will not be able to match. Contador did the same to Andy Schleck in 2010 Tour (Purito won).
There are tactical and strategic options to beat the Sky train.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Without Vino here to derail the Sky train, I do not think it is likely that Froomedog will get beaten, but I do think AC has a chance to take the gc, his tting will be extremely important this year and I hope he is doing everything he can with it

 

[auscyclefan94]

Contador can but even then I am sceptical about his chances. Giro has really caught my eye this time around.

 

[willbick]

We know the Sky train is good. This limits the long range attacks (5-6 km or more). The short range attacks(2-3 km) are dependent on the main guys- Froome, Contador, Schleck. So far Froome has matched Contador in that.
But please remember the tenacity of Contador (Vuelta 2012) and the tactical nous of Bjarne Riis. There are hillier stages where Contador's acceleration will be critical and Froome( no Ardennes Classics palmares) will not be able to match. Contador did the same to Andy Schleck in 2010 Tour (Purito won).
There are tactical and strategic options to beat the Sky train.