I think Cav has a better chance than Clarke, unlike the bookies, for 1 simple reason - the "golfing" vote will be split between him, and Rory, and I'd think myself that Yoyry, out of the 2, may even edge that vote by virtue of him a) being younger, b) dominating the other tournament for 3 rounds before collapsing, and c) the sheer size of the margin of victory.
Footballers won't be on the list, as usual - don't forget Ryan Giggs wouldn't have even been on the list if a Daily Telegraph Man Utd sports journo hadn't 3 days before the newspapers were due to submit their votes to the BBC to create the shortlist started a massive campaign - and Giggs only scraped in with the least number of votes even with this. It was the same journo's massive "Giggs is a brilliant player, he deserves it for his last 20 years in footie" campaign, that got him the public vote after.
Problem Cav has is he has had a great year - but so have an *awful* lot of other British sport persons - Cook/Bell in the cricket, Farah/Greene in track/field, the brownlees/jackson in tri, Wellington (as usual) in Ironman, wiggo/froome in road cycling, clarke/mcilroy, Hart in DH, matthews in squash - and then there's the RWC too to consider.