Cav's leadout man?

[hfer07]

In Answer to the original question I don't think that Cav actually needs a leadout man. What he needs is a team that will guarantee that the race will finish in a bunch sprint. He didn't have a proper leadout at this years worlds and he still won and He didn't really have a proper leadout after renshaw got kicked out of the 2010 tour but still won stages. All cav really needs is the race to finish in a bunch gallop and he'll get himself in the right position

that's the main problem for Sky, when you have "potential" podium riders getting spent in order to bring back a breakaway or pace hard enough to force a sprint-Mark didn't have a leadout rider or a train at the worlds, but you have to be aware of the amount of effort done by Wiggins & Co. during the last K to bring Cav closer to the finish line- now imagine Sky trying to do that during the next year's Tour, with 9 flat stages---that means killing all possibilities of GC ambitions..

 

[Ragerod]

that's the main problem for Sky, when you have "potential" podium riders getting spent in order to bring back a breakaway or pace hard enough to force a sprint-Mark didn't have a leadout rider or a train at the worlds, but you have to be aware of the amount of effort done by Wiggins & Co. during the last K to bring Cav closer to the finish line- now imagine Sky trying to do that during the next year's Tour, with 9 flat stages---that means killing all possibilities of GC ambitions..

Is it really that hard to imagine? For starters other teams will be willing to put a man on the front and providing breaks are kept to 4 or 5 riders the peloton should be capable of pulling them back. Pate and Bak pulled on the front without help for plenty of kilometres at the tour this year no problem. It should help Wiggins having his team on or near the front, it certainly helped Evans. After his crash this year I would consider that even more important. The advantage of having an entire team dedicated to Cavendish comes in the last 20km when they're going full gas as it stops him from getting swamped and boxed in.

If I had to breakdown Sky's team it would be something along the lines of:
Cavendish & Wiggo
3 rouleurs to pull the peloton along on the flat stages
1 mountain goat that's responsibility is to protect Wiggo's during flat stages and support him in the moutains.
1 mountain domestic/rouleur that participates in the lead-out for Cavendish but doesn't see the front of the bunch until the last 10km.
2 men that lead-out Cavendish.

 

[ingsve]

Is it really that hard to imagine? For starters other teams will be willing to put a man on the front and providing breaks are kept to 4 or 5 riders the peloton should be capable of pulling them back. Pate and Bak pulled on the front without help for plenty of kilometres at the tour this year no problem. It should help Wiggins having his team on or near the front, it certainly helped Evans. After his crash this year I would consider that even more important. The advantage of having an entire team dedicated to Cavendish comes in the last 20km when they're going full gas as it stops him from getting swamped and boxed in.

If I had to breakdown Sky's team it would be something along the lines of:
Cavendish & Wiggo
3 rouleurs to pull the peloton along on the flat stages
1 mountain goat that's responsibility is to protect Wiggo's during flat stages and support him in the moutains.
1 mountain domestic/rouleur that participates in the lead-out for Cavendish but doesn't see the front of the bunch until the last 10km.
2 men that lead-out Cavendish.

Then after you take this team to the Tour and they all work hard during the first 10 days of the Tour and then suddenly Wiggins takes the Yellow Jersey. Then what do you do? You'll have 3 rouleurs that are exhausted after working at the front of the peloton for over a week plus Cav and his two leadouts. That's 6 riders that will be useless when it comes to defending the Yellow Jersey. If Wiggins got the Jersey under those circumstancse he would get slaughtered by the other teams.

If you plan on winning the Tour you can't do it with just one and a half domestiques for your leader. It might work if you're satisfied with having someone finish in the top 10 but as soon as you want to win then you need to prepare for defending the leaders jersey.

 

[42x16ss]

Hopefully it will be Sutton. Thomas has done some amazing leadouts but I hope that the fact that Cavendish has joined Sky won't affect Thomas' own chances in races.

Cav joining will effect everybody's chances of winning except the cobbles guys. The rest will be made to work HTC style or it will be a very short partnership.

 

[42x16ss]

Then after you take this team to the Tour and they all work hard during the first 10 days of the Tour and then suddenly Wiggins takes the Yellow Jersey. Then what do you do? You'll have 3 rouleurs that are exhausted after working at the front of the peloton for over a week plus Cav and his two leadouts. That's 6 riders that will be useless when it comes to defending the Yellow Jersey. If Wiggins got the Jersey under those circumstancse he would get slaughtered by the other teams.

If you plan on winning the Tour you can't do it with just one and a half domestiques for your leader. It might work if you're satisfied with having someone finish in the top 10 but as soon as you want to win then you need to prepare for defending the leaders jersey.

That situation will never arise - they'll all be working too hard chasing breaks and leading out for anyone to get yellow. Cav will demand it.

 

[Ragerod]

Then after you take this team to the Tour and they all work hard during the first 10 days of the Tour and then suddenly Wiggins takes the Yellow Jersey. Then what do you do? You'll have 3 rouleurs that are exhausted after working at the front of the peloton for over a week plus Cav and his two leadouts. That's 6 riders that will be useless when it comes to defending the Yellow Jersey. If Wiggins got the Jersey under those circumstancse he would get slaughtered by the other teams.

If you plan on winning the Tour you can't do it with just one and a half domestiques for your leader. It might work if you're satisfied with having someone finish in the top 10 but as soon as you want to win then you need to prepare for defending the leaders jersey.

Ideally Wiggins would have 8 guys defending the jersey for him but how many of them can actually defend a jersey when Contador, Evans or Schleck attack on a mountain?

I'll relent and give Wiggins two dedicated helpers and that is enough provided they are amongst the top 20 climbers in the race. Froome and Uran could be with their showings this year and if they get Wiggins to the last 5km then their job would be done. The only issue here is if several stages that are similar to the hilly classics because that would be Wiggins big weakness where a team could really help him.

The other issue that needs considering is the timing of the time-trials. If the race has stayed together in the first week then the time trial on stage 9 will probably see Tony Martin in yellow and the second is on the penultimate day. If Wiggins does win the race it will most likely be in a similar fashion to Evans win this year - survive the attacks in the mountains and take the lead with a brilliant time trial on the last Saturday.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Cav will demand it.

As he should. There's no point in being the best sprinter in the world if your target races don't finish in a sprint.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Sky should concede it however. They will probably have the greatest strength in depth of any team next year, but they will also have the most divergent goals. It will be genuinely interesting to see how they balance what might be their only chance to really compete for Yellow for years to come with (a) the massive investment they've made in Cavendish and (b) the huge pressure they'll be under to have their riders bring home a haul of Olympic medals.

 

[42x16ss]

As he should. There's no point in being the best sprinter in the world if your target races don't finish in a sprint.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Sky should concede it however. They will probably have the greatest strength in depth of any team next year, but they will also have the most divergent goals. It will be genuinely interesting to see how they balance what might be their only chance to really compete for Yellow for years to come with (a) the massive investment they've made in Cavendish and (b) the huge pressure they'll be under to have their riders bring home a haul of Olympic medals.

They will concede it, because they want wins. Wins = visibility = $$$$$.

The best way to win is to have a happy and contented winner. If Sky don't give Cav what he wants, he'll pack up and leave. There are other teams that can effectively support a sprinter.

 

[just some guy]

I would go with:

Wiggins
Uran
Rogers
Siutsou
Flecha
Thomas
Stannard
EBH
Cavendish

If Thomas can't make it then I would go with Froome there instead.

The reason for this lineup is that when push comes to shove then Cavendish can handle the sprints pretty much alone if he was forced to but if Wiggins manages to get Yellow then they need more guys to help him and can't afford to go light in the same way they can afford to go light for Cav.

I would have Haymen instead of Flecha reason is the fight for the front 30 for the GC next year will be massive - Haymen comes a cross and a nice guy who is hard when he needs to get a job done

plus Eisel will ride and Thomas has said he may not so Thomas for Eisel

 

[LugHugger]

They will concede it, because they want wins. Wins = visibility = $$$$$.

The best way to win is to have a happy and contented winner. If Sky don't give Cav what he wants, he'll pack up and leave. There are other teams that can effectively support a sprinter.

That's utter rubbish IF the parcours for the Tour is as leaked earlier this week. Cav's green jersey ambitions will be sacrificed for one season to pursue the maillot jaune. I would be amazed if Brailsford has not already told Cavendish this. Cav's main goal for next season is the Olympics. It is a perfectly realistic ambition for Sky to win both the Tour and Olympics next season.

Cavendish has had several years of the team being built around his Green jersey and World Championship ambitions. Whilst I fully expect Sky to support his hunt for stage wins next year, even Cav must realise that for 3 weeks in July next year, he will not be the main man at Sky.

 

[ingsve]

I would have Haymen instead of Flecha reason is the fight for the front 30 for the GC next year will be massive - Haymen comes a cross and a nice guy who is hard when he needs to get a job done

plus Eisel will ride and Thomas has said he may not so Thomas for Eisel

The reason I use Flecha is that he has ridden the last 2 Tours for them as Road Captain so it would make sense to bring him again rather that replacing him with Hayman. Also Flecha is stronger on the climbs than Hayman is.

 

[just some guy]

The reason I use Flecha is that he has ridden the last 2 Tours for them as Road Captain so it would make sense to bring him again rather that replacing him with Hayman. Also Flecha is stronger on the climbs than Hayman is.

I agree that Flecha is stronger on the climbs but Rogers will be the GC capt I believe and Eisel for Cav, Flecha may not be the best tactical rider and Rogers climbs better so what is the roll of Flecha now?

I think he now become a poorer EBH and you don´t need 2 of those types. Where as Haymen if told Brad stays in the front 30% of the Peloton and finished top 30 in the flat stages - that is your job fits better for the team imo

 

[ingsve]

Ideally Wiggins would have 8 guys defending the jersey for him but how many of them can actually defend a jersey when Contador, Evans or Schleck attack on a mountain?

I'll relent and give Wiggins two dedicated helpers and that is enough provided they are amongst the top 20 climbers in the race. Froome and Uran could be with their showings this year and if they get Wiggins to the last 5km then their job would be done. The only issue here is if several stages that are similar to the hilly classics because that would be Wiggins big weakness where a team could really help him.

The other issue that needs considering is the timing of the time-trials. If the race has stayed together in the first week then the time trial on stage 9 will probably see Tony Martin in yellow and the second is on the penultimate day. If Wiggins does win the race it will most likely be in a similar fashion to Evans win this year - survive the attacks in the mountains and take the lead with a brilliant time trial on the last Saturday.

Defending the jersey is not (only) about chasing down Contador in the final mountain. It is about controlling the race from km 0 so that no dangerous riders get in the breaks etc. That is when a yellow jersey leader needs his team the most. When you have the leader it's your job to control the race and you can't do that when your entire team is exhausted from the first week.

As for Martin taking yellow after the ITT. That might happen, But what happens when Martin eventually fails in the first mountains like he usually does? Who takes over then? You can't build your team around getting lucky enough to snag yellow on the penultimate stage. If you have a desire to win the overall you need to prepare for it properly and not shoot yourself in the foot.

It might very well be that Sky sends a team with lots of support for Cavendish to the Tour but mark my words; if they do then they don't truely believe that Wiggins can win the Tour.

 

[42x16ss]

That's utter rubbish IF the parcours for the Tour is as leaked earlier this week. Cav's green jersey ambitions will be sacrificed for one season to pursue the maillot jaune. I would be amazed if Brailsford has not already told Cavendish this. Cav's main goal for next season is the Olympics. It is a perfectly realistic ambition for Sky to win both the Tour and Olympics next season.

Cavendish has had several years of the team being built around his Green jersey and World Championship ambitions. Whilst I fully expect Sky to support his hunt for stage wins next year, even Cav must realise that for 3 weeks in July next year, he will not be the main man at Sky.

Team Sky Tdf 2012 = HTC TdF 2011.

If the GC campaign takes anything away from Cav there will be tension.

I hope that's not the case, but I have a gut feeling that it will happen

 

[Captain_Cavman]

2011: Edvald Boasson Hagen, Juan Antonio Flecha, Simon Gerrans, Christian Knees, Ben Swift, Geraint Thomas, Rigoberto Urán, Bradley Wiggins, Xabier Zandio

Out go Thomas possibly (due to Olympics) and Gerrans (left team) and Swift (for Cavendish)

In come: Eisel, Froome (wants to ride), and Cavendish.

Then it's just a question of whether you replace the two domestiques, Knees and Zandio with riders of a higher calibre who may or may not domestique any better, i.e. Sivtsov, Pate, Hayman, Porte, Stannard or indeed Rogers or Lovquist if either wants to ride the Tour as a domestique.

I'd take Sivtsov for sure and Hayman maybe to make up for the loss of Thomas as a lead out.

So

EBH
JAF
Uran
Wiggins
Eisel
Cavendish
Froome
Sivtsov
Hayman

What you've lost is stage hunting ability although EBH and Flecha are still in. But then you've got Cavendish so you don't need that ability so much anyway.

If there was a decent length TTT you'd re-jig the line up a bit and start writing Wiggins's name on the trophy now.

 

[The Hitch]

that's the main problem for Sky, when you have "potential" podium riders getting spent in order to bring back a breakaway or pace hard enough to force a sprint-Mark didn't have a leadout rider or a train at the worlds, but you have to be aware of the amount of effort done by Wiggins & Co. during the last K to bring Cav closer to the finish line- now imagine Sky trying to do that during the next year's Tour, with 9 flat stages---that means killing all possibilities of GC ambitions..

Solution, put EBH in breaks on sprint stages. If break succeeds most likely so does EBH. If peloton succeeds so most likely does Cav.

Well it might work once or twice anyway.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

Solution, put EBH in breaks on sprint stages. If break succeeds most likely so does EBH. If peloton succeeds so most likely does Cav.

Well it might work once or twice anyway.

Yeah, once if you're lucky. I don't see many break away riders working with the 3rd or 4th best sprinter in the world and I don't see many of the other sprint teams allowing him to get away, knowing that they'll get absolutely no help from Sky in chasing.

Re: the Cav, Wiggo situation, it's pretty clear cut what's going to happen and what Cav and Wiggo believe will happen. Both have said the Tour is their goal, both know that they won't get things all their own way. They aren't daft. Both also know that Sky are doing their best to accomodate both goals by signing riders who can help with both - Porte, Sivtsov, Rogers, EBH, Thomas.

 

[movingtarget]

I think he's proved that he doesn't always need a leadout man. Like Robbie McEwen he is also good at using other teams to position himself.

 

[ingsve]

Rolf Aldag seems clear on there being a problem with giving Cavendish too many helpers.

One thing is obvious, if they believe that Wiggins can go for yellow they can’t compromise and give Cavendish four guys for the sprints. If they stretch it and think both riders have chance of achieving their goals, then honestly they don’t really believe in Wiggins,” Aldag told Cyclingnews.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/aldag-questions-skys-ability-to-win-tour-yellow-and-green

It's almost as if Aldag read my comment a few posts up....

 

[zigmeister]

Peter Sagan?

Me thinks he is on his own.

 

[hatcher]

Rolf Aldag seems clear on there being a problem with giving Cavendish too many helpers.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/aldag-questions-skys-ability-to-win-tour-yellow-and-green

It's almost as if Aldag read my comment a few posts up....

I've always suspected you were Rolf Aldag.

I still think people are overrating the amount of work that they'll need to do for Cav. Unless Greenedge are the in the breaks, they will undoubtedly put everyone on the front for sprint stages. Sky will help, but the burden won't be the same as it was for HTC.

 

[Winterfold]

I think too many posters are thinking Cav will demand this and Cav will demand that.

If the leaked route is true then next year represents a huge opportunity for Wiggo in a once in a career way like Copenhagen did for Cav.

Likewise Olympics in your own country is a once in a sporting career opportunity and Cav has a very real chance of gold.

He alread has lots of Tour stages and a green jersey, I think he will see the bigger picture.

And Wiggo's turn on the front at the WC was heroic - Cav will want to repay that and Wiggo has his own money to buy guitars and scooters.

I would send a strong team to support Wiggo and Eisel for Cav. Cav gets a stage or two in the rainbow jersey then goes off to prepare for Olympics. Eisel then looks after Wiggo in the bunch.

It seems quite simple really...

 

[just some guy]

I think too many posters are thinking Cav will demand this and Cav will demand that.

If the leaked route is true then next year represents a huge opportunity for Wiggo in a once in a career way like Copenhagen did for Cav.

Likewise Olympics in your own country is a once in a sporting career opportunity and Cav has a very real chance of gold.

He alread has lots of Tour stages and a green jersey, I think he will see the bigger picture.

And Wiggo's turn on the front at the WC was heroic - Cav will want to repay that and Wiggo has his own money to buy guitars and scooters.

I would send a strong team to support Wiggo and Eisel for Cav. Cav gets a stage or two in the rainbow jersey then goes off to prepare for Olympics. Eisel then looks after Wiggo in the bunch.

It seems quite simple really...

simple unless ego get in the way

 

[b.broadhurst]

Knees' contract is up, haven't heard anything about him.
Would be expect Flecha to remain in their Tour squad.

Flecha, Knees and Barry signed new contracts today.

Maybe Augustyn, Carlstrom, Downing, Hunt, Nordhaug, Possoni will leave?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I think too many posters are thinking Cav will demand this and Cav will demand that.

If the leaked route is true then next year represents a huge opportunity for Wiggo in a once in a career way like Copenhagen did for Cav.

Likewise Olympics in your own country is a once in a sporting career opportunity and Cav has a very real chance of gold.

He alread has lots of Tour stages and a green jersey, I think he will see the bigger picture.

And Wiggo's turn on the front at the WC was heroic - Cav will want to repay that and Wiggo has his own money to buy guitars and scooters.

I would send a strong team to support Wiggo and Eisel for Cav. Cav gets a stage or two in the rainbow jersey then goes off to prepare for Olympics. Eisel then looks after Wiggo in the bunch.

It seems quite simple really...

Cav was much less dominant in sprints this year, although it went OK for him in the big events. His margins of victory were much much lower than previous.

He has no idea when he's going to lose the ability to win 5 or 6 stages a year. I don't think he should be standing aside for anyone, and I think a team willing to pay him top dollar and then not use him in the way he should be used is foolish.


I simply don't buy the idea that the goals diverge anyway. If Wiggins does gain the lead, the same riders that chase breakaways to set up sprints can chase breakaways to protect that lead. In terms of pure climbers, Wiggins + 2 (presumably Froome & Uran) will be perfectly sufficient. And HTC last year just had 2 men on breakaway pullback duty anyway, so Cav's resource requirement is limited.