Cav's leadout man?

[Morbius]

Assuming no time bonuses, I expect Quickstep to help in the first week to defend Tony Martin's yellow jersey from the prologue. That is unless the first 2-3 stages have uphill finishes, in which case BMC will be pushed into chasing to protect Gilbert's yellow (and risking ruining Cadel's chances)

 

[LugHugger]

He has no idea when he's going to lose the ability to win 5 or 6 stages a year. I don't think he should be standing aside for anyone, and I think a team willing to pay him top dollar and then not use him in the way he should be used is foolish.


I simply don't buy the idea that the goals diverge anyway. If Wiggins does gain the lead, the same riders that chase breakaways to set up sprints can chase breakaways to protect that lead. In terms of pure climbers, Wiggins + 2 (presumably Froome & Uran) will be perfectly sufficient. And HTC last year just had 2 men on breakaway pullback duty anyway, so Cav's resource requirement is limited.

You appear to have forgotten how much Sky are paying Wiggins (a 7 figure contract). Wiggins is coming to the end of his contract and Sky have, in all likelihood given their current resources and the parcours, the best opportunity they are going to get to win the Tour with him or Froome.

Yes, Cavendish is one particular aspect of their future. That's why they've invested in him now. Cavendish will win stages without having 5 team mates (not 2) chasing breaks and leading into the last corner.

The big picture is the yellow jersey and the Olympic gold medal for Sky in 2012. Do you really believe that Brailsford will set the team up for anything else?

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

You appear to have forgotten how much Sky are paying Wiggins (a 7 figure contract). Wiggins is coming to the end of his contract and Sky have, in all likelihood given their current resources and the parcours, the best opportunity they are going to get to win the Tour with him or Froome.

Yes, Cavendish is one particular aspect of their future. That's why they've invested in him now. Cavendish will win stages without having 5 team mates (not 2) chasing breaks and leading into the last corner.

The big picture is the yellow jersey and the Olympic gold medal for Sky in 2012. Do you really believe that Brailsford will set the team up for anything else?

HTC had 2 men on all day peloton pulling duty. The other riders took part in the final 30km in order to ensure the entire team was on the front and controlling the pace. Had they not gathered at the front this way, the stages would still have resulted in sprints, due to the work of the 2.

I'm excited about Wiggins chances next year, but I have to say large parts of this discussion seem to have missed the distinction between birds in the hand, and in the bush. In this context, Cav is in the hand, and Wiggins is in the bush.

 

[ingsve]

HTC had 2 men on all day peloton pulling duty. The other riders took part in the final 30km in order to ensure the entire team was on the front and controlling the pace. Had they not gathered at the front this way, the stages would still have resulted in sprints, due to the work of the 2.

I'm excited about Wiggins chances next year, but I have to say large parts of this discussion seem to have missed the distinction between birds in the hand, and in the bush. In this context, Cav is in the hand, and Wiggins is in the bush.

The point is that Cavendish can manage fine without a lot of help but without help you can never win the Tour. Why commit half your team to something that will likely be successful even if you don't. The simple truth is that if they bring too many helpers for Cavendish then they don't think Wiggins can win.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

The point is that Cavendish can manage fine without a lot of help but without help you can never win the Tour. Why commit half your team to something that will likely be successful even if you don't. The simple truth is that if they bring too many helpers for Cavendish then they don't think Wiggins can win.

Cadel had 5 helpers in the mountains to win? In a tour that had many more mountains than last time?

Your final sentence is just pure cant. 2 high quality climber teammates is as much as anyone in the race will have. If Wiggins, Froome & Uran all ride, then 3 of the last 20 riders up the climbs will be Sky, which is all the 'support' anyone could need.

Other than mountain stages, anyone who can help Cav in a given situation, could easily help Wiggins in another.

If they select Rogers, who are they supporting?

If they select Knees, who are they supporting?

If they select Lofkvist, who are they supporting?

If they select Porte, who are they supporting?

If they select Siutsov, who are they supporting?

 

[lancaster]

If they select Porte, who are they supporting?

Saxo Bank?

 

[ingsve]

Cadel had 5 helpers in the mountains to win? In a tour that had many more mountains than last time?

Your final sentence is just pure cant. 2 high quality climber teammates is as much as anyone in the race will have. If Wiggins, Froome & Uran all ride, then 3 of the last 20 riders up the climbs will be Sky, which is all the 'support' anyone could need.

Other than mountain stages, anyone who can help Cav in a given situation, could easily help Wiggins in another.

If they select Rogers, who are they supporting?

If they select Knees, who are they supporting?

If they select Lofkvist, who are they supporting?

If they select Porte, who are they supporting?

If they select Siutsov, who are they supporting?

I guess the point isn't so much who is riding but rather how much work they'll be doing for Cavendish. My point is that they should bring as many as possible that can do double duty which means they should not pick riders like Sutton, Swift and yes not Eisel either.

Also as I pointed out earlier in the thread, defending a leaders jersey is alot more than just having a couṕle of guys in the last mountain. You need to defend the jersey from km 0 by making sure that no dangerous riders get in the breaks etc. If you have too many riders in the first 10 days pacing at the front of the peloton to bring back breaks for Cav then there won't be any energy left in the last week when you really need it if they were to have the jersey. There is a very good reason why Cadel Evans doesn't want any supported sprinters on his Tour team.

Ideally they should have 1 guy that can help in the first week to bring back breaks and 1 guy that can help Cavendish position in sprints and anything more than that would lessen their chanses in the GC.

Now, I don't expect that Sky will follow me on this because I think they will sacrifice Wiggins chances in order to help Cav which I believe is a mistake.

 

[Richeypen]

Saxo Bank?

I dont get it

 

[lancaster]

I dont get it

it would be weird if SKY selected Porte because he rides for a different team.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

it would be weird if SKY selected Porte because he rides for a different team.

OK, so you don't know what you're talking about, good.

 

[Moncoutie]

Saxo Bank?

You know he's moved to Sky right?

 

[hatcher]

it would be weird if SKY selected Porte because he rides for a different team.

You're gonna feel so silly in a minute.

 

[Captain_Cavman]

Cadel had 5 helpers in the mountains to win? In a tour that had many more mountains than last time?

Your final sentence is just pure cant. 2 high quality climber teammates is as much as anyone in the race will have. If Wiggins, Froome & Uran all ride, then 3 of the last 20 riders up the climbs will be Sky, which is all the 'support' anyone could need.

Other than mountain stages, anyone who can help Cav in a given situation, could easily help Wiggins in another.

If they select Rogers, who are they supporting?

If they select Knees, who are they supporting?

If they select Lofkvist, who are they supporting?

If they select Porte, who are they supporting?

If they select Siutsov, who are they supporting?

So Froome crashes in the prologue and Uran finds he hasn't got the legs he thought he had and Wiggins has no support when he needs it.

Although I would agree with you that a balanced team would usually be the best approach, I think you've got to consider the once-in-a-lifetimeness of this route, a British climber's form in the twilight of his career and his team strength.

They're going to go all-out for it. For yellow that is. The green and the stage wins would be cool but yellow would be a whole different realm of mission accomplished.

Rather than birds in hands and bushes, it's more like whether five Ford Mondeos in the hand are worth a Bentley in the bush when you've already got 20 Mondeos.

 

[LugHugger]

Saxo Bank?

Taxi?

 

[LugHugger]

Now, I don't expect that Sky will follow me on this because I think they will sacrifice Wiggins chances in order to help Cav which I believe is a mistake.

It is a mistake and it will not happen assuming that Wiggins and Froome have a productive winter/spring and are injury free until the start of July.

Brailsford will be prepping Cavendish for the Olympic road race which is 6 days after the finish on the Champs Elysees.

If you were a team manager aiming at winning an almost flat Olympic Road Race, would you send your star sprinter over two Pyreneean mountain stages totalling 350kms of climbing one and a half weeks before that race? One and half weeks before Copenhagen, Cavendish was pottering around Devon and Cornwall not climbing the Tourmalet.

 

[Richeypen]

It is a mistake and it will not happen assuming that Wiggins and Froome have a productive winter/spring and are injury free until the start of July.

Brailsford will be prepping Cavendish for the Olympic road race which is 6 days after the finish on the Champs Elysees.

If you were a team manager aiming at winning an almost flat Olympic Road Race, would you send your star sprinter over two Pyreneean mountain stages totalling 350kms of climbing one and a half weeks before that race? One and half weeks before Copenhagen, Cavendish was pottering around Devon and Cornwall not climbing the Tourmalet.

Its much the same thing if you do it right

 

[Winterfold]

The big picture is the yellow jersey and the Olympic gold medal for Sky in 2012. Do you really believe that Brailsford will set the team up for anything else?

This. THIS THIS THIS THIS THIS.

SInce the route has been leaked everything has changed.

Olympic Gold and a decent crack at winning the Tour are both plausible.

Cav will not put his ego in the way of winning the overall. Does it really matter if he wins 2 or 5 stages in the rainbow jersey? He is a genuine cycling fan and knows how huge a Brit winning the Tour could be. Especially if he gets the Gold in the same year.

He just wont get in the way of that. He might not be everyone's cup of tea, but he's not stupid.

Waterloo Sunrise - we agree right? I am pretty sure we do, but wasnt sure from your first sentence...

 

[Winterfold]

Now, I don't expect that Sky will follow me on this because I think they will sacrifice Wiggins chances in order to help Cav which I believe is a mistake.

I think you're wrong. It might be Froome/Wiggo but Cav knows a proper crack at yellow is bigger than a few more stages for him (in Olympic on home turf year.)

 

[danjo007]

cav needs an australian to hold his hand to the line

 

[LugHugger]

Its much the same thing if you do it right

You're right. Though Cav was definitely zig zagging up a couple of those climbs!

Anyhoo, leading him out for the first week (or two) of the Tour will be EBH and Thomas (or Eisel depending on Thomas' test figures at the Olympic Velodrome)

 

[ingsve]

I think you're wrong. It might be Froome/Wiggo but Cav knows a proper crack at yellow is bigger than a few more stages for him (in Olympic on home turf year.)

Well, I hope I'm wrong too. I guess I don't have the same confidence that some of you others have in Ego Boy being self sacrificing like that. And if it turns out that Cav does demand a lot of help in the sprints then I hope Brailsford is strong enough to say no to the current world champion when he comes knocking.

 

[LugHugger]

Well, I hope I'm wrong too. I guess I don't have the same confidence that some of you others have in Ego Boy being self sacrificing like that. And if it turns out that Cav does demand a lot of help in the sprints then I hope Brailsford is strong enough to say no to the current world champion when he comes knocking.

Whoever is DS in France will be under no misapprehension what the teams instructions are from Brailsford. Believe me, he may not get it right all the time, but when his mind is made up, it stays that way. And you better not cross him.

 

[Winterfold]

Well, I hope I'm wrong too. I guess I don't have the same confidence that some of you others have in Ego Boy being self sacrificing like that. And if it turns out that Cav does demand a lot of help in the sprints then I hope Brailsford is strong enough to say no to the current world champion when he comes knocking.

He has an ego, but it is no so big that he cant see the bigger picture.

He is well into 'fat little' British kids getting into cycling and will know that a Tour win will do that more than anything he can do - although he is doing pretty good given how rubbish the British media are at bigging up one of our most dominant sporting talents.

I had forgotten this, but Cav was a ballroom dancer before he got on a bike, cycling is so poorly looked on in this country that one wonders that if he entered Strictly/Dancing with the Stars then it might raise cycling's profile more than winning olympic Gold RR and Tour in same year.

 

[Sydney21]

I am really interested to see the composition of Sky's tour team for next year. I think they are such a strong team that they can set up a fairly strong leadout for cav and be there for Wiggo in the mountains. Wouldnt surprise me if they stacked their team with a lot of GC type guys Porte, Lovkist, Rogers Froome who can play critical roles for both objectives. Wiggans will probably get Uran as his mountain goat too. Eddy Bos, Eisel and Cav will be 3 of the last 4 in the lead out you'd think. Looking at the way things add up, they will either have to make room for Sutton by having Porte or Lovkist ride the Giro or have Eisel as final leadout. I certainly cant see a spot for Swift but I think he should ride the Giro anyway and Thomas should probably focus on the classics and olympics for next year. Still 3 brits in the team if you include Froome as Brit so the same as last year

 

[thehog]

http://www.sbs.com.au/cyclingcentral/news/33327/Porte-confident-of-Grand-Tour-glory

Sky may have to manage the twin targets of a yellow and green jersey at the Tour next year – the ambitions of Bradley Wiggins and Cavendish, respectively. Both Wiggins and Cavendish (HTC-Highroad) have had Tour teams built almost solely around them in recent years but Porte believes Sky’s potential two-prong attack can work successfully.

“It’s no different to having other sprinters in the team,” Porte said of Cavendish’s addition to the squad.

*“It’s going to be different to HTC, how they (Sky) handle it. HTC didn’t have a GC guy like Brad. I guess they had Tony (Martin) but I think it could be balanced between helping Cav and helping Brad. Hopefully, I can fit in the middle there somewhere.”

“I’m not sure I’ll do the Tour, it doesn’t really concern me, I like the Giro and I’d be happy to go there and race,” he said.