Teams & Riders Chris Froome Discussion Thread.

[Brullnux]

If Nibali is 21.00 then maybe I will bet on him. He has very little chance to win but 21?! Worth a tenner.

Anyway, Sky might lose some time tomorrow because they have held the yellow jersey for a couple of days but not to worry, Tuesday should see the return of alien Froome. The stage is basically a carbon copy profile-wise of the Mont Ventoux stage he won, just with an easier final climb. IMO Sky need to be careful on the Other two stages, for Cauterts they need to be sure to use men up wisely and not isolate Froome otherwise he might struggle. The plateau de beille stage also. Sky seem to struggle with stages with multiple hard cols.

 

[Jelantik]

Re:

They look strong to me, just riding smart and saving energy for the mountains. The way Froome is riding he must be very confident in his form. I can't see anyone except Quintana matching him in the climbs.

Froome believes in his own ability. He doesn't pay attention to anyone's riding. So if he is riding like that .. that how he is feeling and believes. Makes it easy to read probably coz he is just going to keep pedaling as hard as he can.. and a long the way people are falling off around him..

 

[fantomas]

Re:

I know my graphs are hugely popular here, so I thought I'd ask the community for advice with the dilemma I'm now confronted with. I intended to track just the Big 4, fully expecting them to remain the most likely riders to win the Tour from start to finish. But now the Italian has faltered. He has allowed Tejay to surpass him. Tejay is now the 4th most likely rider to win the Tour.

The options are
Keep VN, add TJ
Keep VN, don't add TJ
Drop VN, add TJ
Drop VN, don't add TJ

I enjoy your graphs. Keep Nibs, add TJ.

 

[Red Rick]

If its for top 5, take TJ, if its for the win, take Nibali. Nibali will try and win, TJ will just finish as high as possible

 

[del1962]

The key for Chris tomorrow is the form of Porte, Poels and Konig. If they show up good then I think Sky will win the time trial.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Added TJ because he might ride into yellow tomorrow. If he is dropped viciously come the real mountains, I might drop him from the graph in kind as punishment. I actually made a note of his odds through the first 3 stages but from then on to now is a linear interpolation (in odds, not implied probabilities). Not that it matters, with volume traded on him being low, so is the expected accuracy of the odds.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

The key for Chris tomorrow is the form of Porte, Poels and Konig. If they show up good then I think Sky will win the time trial.

I agree but Porte did not look great so far ...he was at the front for a very little time today but not long
Stannard has not looked great all week and Kennaugh has been saying he is tired from about stage 2
Poels blew at the Dauphine (and Roche almost blew but had to hang in) but hopefully they have practiced since then and can measure their effort ...plus both better on climbs

Thomas & Froome will be strongest and Konig has a very good TT

 

[SlickMongoose]

I'm assuming that Sky's climbers have been saving their energy, rather than being rubbish.

We'll see tomorrow.

 

[Sciocco]

Re: Re:

Added TJ because he might ride into yellow tomorrow. If he is dropped viciously come the real mountains, I might drop him from the graph in kind as punishment. I actually made a note of his odds through the first 3 stages but from then on to now is a linear interpolation (in odds, not implied probabilities). Not that it matters, with volume traded on him being low, so is the expected accuracy of the odds.

I like graphs, keep up the awesome posts!

Yea, if he falls off on La PSM or Tourmalet, probably best to drop him. Maybe keep all of the "original big 4" though as it will be interesting to see how they in particular do with each stage.

 

[HelloDolly]

Re:

I'm assuming that Sky's climbers have been saving their energy, rather than being rubbish.

We'll see tomorrow.

I am not saying Porte is rubbish ...just not his usual self which is usually brilliant. But had only today & stage 3 as evidence so far

I know SKY have rested Porte , Konig & Poels so far

 

[Jelantik]

Re: Re:

Added TJ because he might ride into yellow tomorrow. If he is dropped viciously come the real mountains, I might drop him from the graph in kind as punishment. I actually made a note of his odds through the first 3 stages but from then on to now is a linear interpolation (in odds, not implied probabilities). Not that it matters, with volume traded on him being low, so is the expected accuracy of the odds.

wah.. your graphic rating TJ starting to pass Nibali?

 

[Sciocco]

Re: Re:

Added TJ because he might ride into yellow tomorrow. If he is dropped viciously come the real mountains, I might drop him from the graph in kind as punishment. I actually made a note of his odds through the first 3 stages but from then on to now is a linear interpolation (in odds, not implied probabilities). Not that it matters, with volume traded on him being low, so is the expected accuracy of the odds.

wah.. your graphic rating TJ starting to pass Nibali?

Yea that's what it is showing. Not surprising really, Nibali was supposed to use the first week to his advantage and has done the opposite.

 

[cantpedal]

Re: Re:

I know my graphs are hugely popular here, so I thought I'd ask the community for advice with the dilemma I'm now confronted with. I intended to track just the Big 4, fully expecting them to remain the most likely riders to win the Tour from start to finish. But now the Italian has faltered. He has allowed Tejay to surpass him. Tejay is now the 4th most likely rider to win the Tour.

The options are
Keep VN, add TJ
Keep VN, don't add TJ
Drop VN, add TJ
Drop VN, don't add TJ

No need to use graphs. Just use your head when it comes to figuring out who will win, podium, ect. The graphs don't tell you anything that can't be figured out with some simple thinking.

I like the graphs. an easy way to follow relative ups and downs of each rider through the tour. Thanks for spending the time providing them. I have to admit at first I thought they were silly but now look forward to them everyday.

 

[cantpedal]

Good day for Froome,always there at front on the mur.The first mountain stage should be fun since Contador today looked better too.For tomorrow i'm not that confident that Sky will be so hot,he might lose some time to TVG and Contador.

Hopefully BMC and Tinkoff-Saxo both have good days, and Froome will be out of yellow until at least the Alps. I really don't relish the idea of watching the UK Postal train processional culminate in a daily, 2km washing machine sprint from here on out.

If Froome's the strongest--which seems likely--then he should by all means win the Tour. But I'd prefer to see dynamic racing instead of the standard, pre-planned formula for as long as possible.

It amazes me that someone hasn't come up with a way to deal with the Sky train or at least tried something different. Maybe all they can do is hold on for dear life???

 

[cantpedal]

Re: Re:

They look strong to me, just riding smart and saving energy for the mountains. The way Froome is riding he must be very confident in his form. I can't see anyone except Quintana matching him in the climbs.

It's just how he rides, regardless of his form or confidence remember Vuelta last year?

He was trying to ride back into form in the Vuelta. hopefully that's what your boy is doing now so that we can have some good racing from the 2 of them.

 

[cellardoor]

Re: Re:

I know my graphs are hugely popular here, so I thought I'd ask the community for advice with the dilemma I'm now confronted with. I intended to track just the Big 4, fully expecting them to remain the most likely riders to win the Tour from start to finish. But now the Italian has faltered. He has allowed Tejay to surpass him. Tejay is now the 4th most likely rider to win the Tour.

The options are
Keep VN, add TJ
Keep VN, don't add TJ
Drop VN, add TJ
Drop VN, don't add TJ

No need to use graphs. Just use your head when it comes to figuring out who will win, podium, ect. The graphs don't tell you anything that can't be figured out with some simple thinking.

I like the graphs. an easy way to follow relative ups and downs of each rider through the tour. Thanks for spending the time providing them. I have to admit at first I thought they were silly but now look forward to them everyday.

I can foresee the spectre of another dilemma raising it's head though. If Froome gets overtaken by one of the others in the graph then will it be appropriate for the graphs to remain in the Froome thread?

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I'm assuming that Sky's climbers have been saving their energy, rather than being rubbish.

We'll see tomorrow.

I am not saying Porte is rubbish ...just not his usual self which is usually brilliant. But had only today & stage 3 as evidence so far

I know SKY have rested Porte , Konig & Poels so far

If he does not come out to play in the mountains then you know there are problems.

 

[wwabbit]

Re:

I know my graphs are hugely popular here, so I thought I'd ask the community for advice with the dilemma I'm now confronted with. I intended to track just the Big 4, fully expecting them to remain the most likely riders to win the Tour from start to finish. But now the Italian has faltered. He has allowed Tejay to surpass him. Tejay is now the 4th most likely rider to win the Tour.

The options are
Keep VN, add TJ
Keep VN, don't add TJ
Drop VN, add TJ
Drop VN, don't add TJ

Keep both, and should probably be a new thread of its own.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah I agree, its cool stuff, make a thread for it Sam

 

[LaFlorecita]

Yeah I agree, its cool stuff, make a thread for it Sam

Why does it need a thread? Anyone with a brain can figure out who, objectively, has the biggest chance.

 

[rick james]

Re: Re:

The key for Chris tomorrow is the form of Porte, Poels and Konig. If they show up good then I think Sky will win the time trial.

I agree but Porte did not look great so far ...he was at the front for a very little time today but not long
Stannard has not looked great all week and Kennaugh has been saying he is tired from about stage 2
Poels blew at the Dauphine (and Roche almost blew but had to hang in) but hopefully they have practiced since then and can measure their effort ...plus both better on climbs

Thomas & Froome will be strongest and Konig has a very good TT

The pressure will be on all right, and many will welcome the first rest day on Monday in Pau.
I know I will welcome the day off, even though I'm looking forward to the Tour getting into the Pyrenees next week where I will hopefully get to leave my mark on helping Froomey.



http://www.smh.com.au/sport/cycling/tour-de-france/tension-on-the-tour-de-france-exposes-more-than-meets-the-eye-20150710-gi9790.html

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah I agree, its cool stuff, make a thread for it Sam

Why does it need a thread? Anyone with a brain can figure out who, objectively, has the biggest chance.

I think its interesting how the bookies develop, and then all this can be contained into one thread

 

[Miburo]

I love how the graps overrate quintana, what has the guy done to deserve that? LOL

 

[Brullnux]

Re:

I love how the graps overrate quintana, what has the guy done to deserve that? LOL

I was thinking the same. He is a great rider but he's 1:20 behind AC who's form is unknown although it's AC

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

Added TJ because he might ride into yellow tomorrow. If he is dropped viciously come the real mountains, I might drop him from the graph in kind as punishment. I actually made a note of his odds through the first 3 stages but from then on to now is a linear interpolation (in odds, not implied probabilities). Not that it matters, with volume traded on him being low, so is the expected accuracy of the odds.

From where do you get your data?