movingtarget said:
Brullnux said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
TMP402 said:
Dekker_Tifosi said:
Given his relative late breakthrough and less high profile youth, how long does Froome have at the top you think?
I think he could be good until even 37/38 years old.
I think he can be top level until 2020. I can't be bothered to find out what that is in age.
He is 32 now.
I think he can be good until 2023
His high mountain climbing isn't what it was two or three years ago. Neither this year nor last year. This Vuelta was won on the shorter uphill sprints (<5km) and the Tour on a wet tt and then a dry one against some pretty average time triallers. He hasn't crushed anyone since 2015. And I don't buy that "he doesn't need to" because that's not Froome's style - if he can destroy the competition in one blow, he will. For him, it makes the rest of the race so much easier. Quintana in good shape and few tt, or dumoulin with two good length time trials in the shape he was in this year, will best him. Maybe not next year but definitely by 2019.
Yeah I tend to agree with that summary. Hard to say what Nibali can produce next year but he definitely needs a better team. There will probably be one or two other riders that will also be a threat whether they can challenge after three weeks racing is another thing. Uran will try to duplicate his Tour effort but never looked like winning it.
Froome may not ever reach 2013/2015 shape ever again, but he doesn't need to be to consistently win Grand Tours. He lacks a serious Grand Tour competitor. Someone who, like him, can:
(a) Race consistently on all terrain over three weeks
(b) Time trial seriously well
(c) Climb seriously well.
Nibali has (a) but lacks too much of (b) and, recently, (c) to be considered a serious threat to Froome.
Pinot has (c) but lacks too much of (a) and occasionally (b) to be considered a serious threat to Froome.
Aru lacks a bit of all of the above - he is one level below Froome in each and thus is not considered a serious threat to Froome.
Bardet has (a) and (c) but seriously lacks (b)
Quintana certainly has (c) but occasionally lacks (a) and lacks (b)
The only two riders I see with a chance of beating Froome are:
Dumoulin - who has (b) and is rapidly improving in (a) and (c)
Landa - who has (c) and can hold his own in (b) but is still relatively unknown in (c)
Other than that, only if other up-and-coming riders, such as Lopez, develop in rounded GC riders, Froome merely needs to maintain his climbing level and continue to race conservatively as he has been since 2015.