Matteo. said:I think a guy like him who does not attack on a day like today, it means that he had very little in the tank in the final 2kms.
damian13ster said:Matteo. said:I think a guy like him who does not attack on a day like today, it means that he had very little in the tank in the final 2kms.
Possibly. But then why not just ride the tempo that is most suitable for him like he has done every time that he wasn't in top strength?
Matteo. said:I think a guy like him who does not attack on a day like today, it means that he had very little in the tank in the final 2kms.
boasson said:Matteo. said:I think a guy like him who does not attack on a day like today, it means that he had very little in the tank in the final 2kms.
Todays Agenda was to follow Quinti and not losing any time to him. He knew, that he can't drop Quinti today, why he should attack? To be countered?
The "attacks" to close the Gap to Quintana were awesome. For me he was even with Quintana today. And that is a very good sign. In my opinion it was the last really decisive stage today. Aitana is a 5,9 percent climb with maximum 9 percent in the last 15 km. Stage 17 is similar to Pena Cabarga. There he can't lose more than 10 seconds. And tomorrow is a 14 km high-speed climb with 4,6 percent avg.
If he gains 90 seconds to Quinti in the TT he has won this race. Thats pretty simple.
Matteo. said:damian13ster said:Matteo. said:I think a guy like him who does not attack on a day like today, it means that he had very little in the tank in the final 2kms.
Possibly. But then why not just ride the tempo that is most suitable for him like he has done every time that he wasn't in top strength?
I do not know, maybe he wanted to hold on (not making his yoyo move) and then try a big attack in the last 1-2 km. but then he found himself with little energy....
otherwise not explain how he raced only in '' defense ''. It is not in its nature
Matteo. said:boasson said:Matteo. said:I think a guy like him who does not attack on a day like today, it means that he had very little in the tank in the final 2kms.
Todays Agenda was to follow Quinti and not losing any time to him. He knew, that he can't drop Quinti today, why he should attack? To be countered?
The "attacks" to close the Gap to Quintana were awesome. For me he was even with Quintana today. And that is a very good sign. In my opinion it was the last really decisive stage today. Aitana is a 5,9 percent climb with maximum 9 percent in the last 15 km. Stage 17 is similar to Pena Cabarga. There he can't lose more than 10 seconds. And tomorrow is a 14 km high-speed climb with 4,6 percent avg.
If he gains 90 seconds to Quinti in the TT he has won this race. Thats pretty simple.
as I said, it's a matter of features. It is not his nature to make those calculations. be careful: at every stage he is always the first to attack. He never races to control the others (except of course when it is first in the standings).
for Ime he saw that he had little energy (or Quintana was a bit stronger than him), so decided to ride a bit conservative in the final
DFA123 said:Exactly. The weight argument is absolute nonsense. 22 years ago, Rominger smashed Indurain's hour record, despite being 15kg lighter. Way more factors go into TTing than just weight.silvergrenade said:If it would only be a matter of heavier = higher FTP, König wouldn't be able to beat Froome as he's 62kg (just like Valverde and Contador by the way)LaFlorecita said:Froome is heavier than most of his GC competition which means his FTP is higher than Quintana, Valverde. He might have his threshold in excess of 50 watts over Quintana. In such a flat TT, its a huge advantage. Dont think anybody except Konig to challenge him.
If he fades then its a different story.
If we believe what he says and that he is riding himself into the race, he aint fading.
Are there any TT guys in the field?
sir fly said:Froome's surely more satisfied than Quintana after today.
And he's probably gaining confidence.
He can even start thinking how to make the penultimate stage irrelevant GC-wise.
But first to get safely through tomorrow's stage.
silvergrenade said:DFA123 said:Exactly. The weight argument is absolute nonsense. 22 years ago, Rominger smashed Indurain's hour record, despite being 15kg lighter. Way more factors go into TTing than just weight.silvergrenade said:If it would only be a matter of heavier = higher FTP, König wouldn't be able to beat Froome as he's 62kg (just like Valverde and Contador by the way)LaFlorecita said:Froome is heavier than most of his GC competition which means his FTP is higher than Quintana, Valverde. He might have his threshold in excess of 50 watts over Quintana. In such a flat TT, its a huge advantage. Dont think anybody except Konig to challenge him.
If he fades then its a different story.
If we believe what he says and that he is riding himself into the race, he aint fading.
Are there any TT guys in the field?
We'll see how much nonsense it is when we get to it mate.
I'm sure NOBODY with lesser than Froome's weight can beat him in the TT.
Nonsense or not, we'll know on Stage 19 when Froome puts 2 minutes into Quitana.
So how did 65kg Rominger smash 80kg Indurain's hour record? (Hint, Michele Ferrari wrote a superb article explaining how he did it).boasson said:silvergrenade said:DFA123 said:Exactly. The weight argument is absolute nonsense. 22 years ago, Rominger smashed Indurain's hour record, despite being 15kg lighter. Way more factors go into TTing than just weight.silvergrenade said:If it would only be a matter of heavier = higher FTP, König wouldn't be able to beat Froome as he's 62kg (just like Valverde and Contador by the way)LaFlorecita said:Froome is heavier than most of his GC competition which means his FTP is higher than Quintana, Valverde. He might have his threshold in excess of 50 watts over Quintana. In such a flat TT, its a huge advantage. Dont think anybody except Konig to challenge him.
If he fades then its a different story.
If we believe what he says and that he is riding himself into the race, he aint fading.
Are there any TT guys in the field?
We'll see how much nonsense it is when we get to it mate.
I'm sure NOBODY with lesser than Froome's weight can beat him in the TT.
Nonsense or not, we'll know on Stage 19 when Froome puts 2 minutes into Quitana.
Yes.
Froome will have 430 watts average for the 45 min TT at friday. (6,4W/kg)
Quintana will have 370 watts average for the 45 min TT at friday. (6,4W/kg)
This 50-60 watts results in exactly 2kph difference with pretty same aerodynamics. Ecual with 2 minutes difference in 45 minutes stage length. (47kph avg for Quinti, 49kph for Froome --> 47 min for Quinti, 45 min for Froome.)
Maybe Quinti can get a few seconds because of better aerodynamics because of his small body compared to Froome. But to lose only one Minute to Froome he have to power 390 watts. That means 6,7-6,8/kg. Not in this world.
boasson said:silvergrenade said:DFA123 said:Exactly. The weight argument is absolute nonsense. 22 years ago, Rominger smashed Indurain's hour record, despite being 15kg lighter. Way more factors go into TTing than just weight.silvergrenade said:If it would only be a matter of heavier = higher FTP, König wouldn't be able to beat Froome as he's 62kg (just like Valverde and Contador by the way)LaFlorecita said:Froome is heavier than most of his GC competition which means his FTP is higher than Quintana, Valverde. He might have his threshold in excess of 50 watts over Quintana. In such a flat TT, its a huge advantage. Dont think anybody except Konig to challenge him.
If he fades then its a different story.
If we believe what he says and that he is riding himself into the race, he aint fading.
Are there any TT guys in the field?
We'll see how much nonsense it is when we get to it mate.
I'm sure NOBODY with lesser than Froome's weight can beat him in the TT.
Nonsense or not, we'll know on Stage 19 when Froome puts 2 minutes into Quitana.
Yes.
Froome will have 430 watts average for the 45 min TT at friday. (6,4W/kg)
Quintana will have 370 watts average for the 45 min TT at friday. (6,4W/kg)
This 50-60 watts results in exactly 2kph difference with pretty same aerodynamics. Equal with 2 minutes difference in 45 minutes stage length. (47kph avg for Quinti, 49kph for Froome --> 47 min for Quinti, 45 min for Froome.)
Maybe Quinti can get a few seconds because of better aerodynamics because of his small body compared to Froome. But to lose only one Minute to Froome he have to power 390 watts. That means 6,7-6,8 W/kg. Not in this world.
I agree with most of that. The point I was responding to was simply that weight is just one factor, it's not the sole determining factor on time trial performance, as silvergrenade was implying.boasson said:A lot of factors for Rominger. Better material, way better position, better location (temperature, air pressure etc), higher W/kg Power output at this single day (better preparation), better pacing..... He would have smashed Indurain at every single climb at that day too.
But its another situation. At this TT we know that Froomes and Quintis W/kg Power outputs are the same, as we saw today. We know that the materials are pretty the same. And the aerodynamics too. Froome with the better position but Quinti with the smaller body. So its pretty even. Its not a hilly parcours, no downhills, not very technical. So the power output is the most important thing.
Cancellara averaged exactly 440 watts (the datas were published) at the olympics (5,6W/kg). Dumo ca. 410 (5,8W/kg) and Froome 400 (5,9W/kg). The both latter estimated.
So as you can see, Cances W/kg were lower than Dumos and Froomes. But 30-40 watts more of power results in 1kph more speed. Enough to gain a minute on both. The lost time in the uphills he gained back in the downhills..
The TDF TT was exactly 37km. Froome was exactly 2 Minutes in front of Quinti. Yes, Quinti is a bit better now, but that TT was pretty hilly. So at the end of the day quinti will lose 90 seconds on a good day and 120 seconds on a bad day.
DFA123 said:I agree with most of that. The point I was responding to was simply that weight is just one factor, it's not the sole determining factor on time trial performance, as silvergrenade was implying.boasson said:A lot of factors for Rominger. Better material, way better position, better location (temperature, air pressure etc), higher W/kg Power output at this single day (better preparation), better pacing..... He would have smashed Indurain at every single climb at that day too.
But its another situation. At this TT we know that Froomes and Quintis W/kg Power outputs are the same, as we saw today. We know that the materials are pretty the same. And the aerodynamics too. Froome with the better position but Quinti with the smaller body. So its pretty even. Its not a hilly parcours, no downhills, not very technical. So the power output is the most important thing.
Cancellara averaged exactly 440 watts (the datas were published) at the olympics (5,6W/kg). Dumo ca. 410 (5,8W/kg) and Froome 400 (5,9W/kg). The both latter estimated.
So as you can see, Cances W/kg were lower than Dumos and Froomes. But 30-40 watts more of power results in 1kph more speed. Enough to gain a minute on both. The lost time in the uphills he gained back in the downhills..
The TDF TT was exactly 37km. Froome was exactly 2 Minutes in front of Quinti. Yes, Quinti is a bit better now, but that TT was pretty hilly. So at the end of the day quinti will lose 90 seconds on a good day and 120 seconds on a bad day.
Of course Froome will do well and should take time out of Quintana. But it's not just because he's heavier. Quintana will also take time out of a lot of heavier riders than him in the TT.
The Rominger-Indurain example is just an extreme one to show how, even between two exceptional time triallists, the much lighter rider can use other factors to win. Smaller riders have other advantages like blood returning to the heart quicker from the legs, less energy to accelerate out of bends, smaller (often significantly) frontal area. In his world hour record, Rominger put out 100 watts less than Indurain for the same speed. That's a huge difference, and shows how weight disadvantage can be overcome. Of course, on the road there's even more scope with factors like accelerations and bike handling more prominent.
wwabbit said:Froome's not really fated to win the Vuelta, eh? Lol...
This will be the 3rd time he fails to win the Vuelta through no fault of his own despite being the strongest or one of the strongests.
DBotero said:wwabbit said:Froome's not really fated to win the Vuelta, eh? Lol...
This will be the 3rd time he fails to win the Vuelta through no fault of his own despite being the strongest or one of the strongests.
This time he's got himself to blame for letting Quintana go.Sky worked hard yesterday and the quality of their roster here is nothing special so no wonder they couldn't do much.Big surprise that Konig wasn't with him,though.
