Teams & Riders Cian Uijtdebroeks - From the wetlands to the top of cycling

[Red Rick]

For top 5 ITT ability doesnt matter that much cause further down gaps simply get bigger in mountain stages, and the top 5 competition are hardly ITT savants either

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I ain't saying Uijtdebroeks is going nowhere. I just say with a TT loaded Giro he's, theoretically on the back foot vs Arensman and Tiberi who are better TT'ers. In a 40k TT he can loose 2:30 to 3 minutes vs the big guns if he hasn't improved drastically.

Yes, i agree on the 2-3 minutes in TT's. But those are of little consequence in relation to what can be lost in the mountains. More often than not, at the end of 3 weeks, it doesn't come down to a few minutes lost in a TT or two. That only matters in the unlikely event that these riders are their exact equals going uphill.

Last year Uijtdebroeks performed well the whole year. He showed that he could follow sub-top riders, and improved during the year, ending with an amazing Vuelta.

This year, I don't feel he made that step forward and showed a similar level of performance. Which was to be expected after the winter he had, and the weather we've been having. I think he'll do fine this Giro, but I'm not sure because I have no clue at what level he's riding at the moment.

On Tiberi, he did have a decent Catalunya and Tour of Alps, so if Uijtdebroeks isn't 100%, I wouldn't be surprised he's able to contest the white jersey.

Last year he peaked for one week stage races in the spring, and it was not certain he would ride the Vuelta later on, or even for GC, for which he had time to rest and build up again. Now he didn't peak for these stage races in the spring since he was working towards the Giro. So you can't compare those results.

For me, Tiberi has a lot to prove as a GT GC rider, while i feel unreasonable questionmarks are being placed next to one single bad result for Uijtdebroeks. No explanations or context sought for. But for Arensman, there is an explanation and context, apparently.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I was also fairly surprised when Tiberi claimed he had the realistic goal of finishing top5 in GC (and dreaming of a podium).
But considering his limited experience as a team leader and the fact Bahrain elected to send him as a captain while having both Caruso and Poels available, his numbers must be very good at the moment. Otherwise the team wouldn't be so confident.
Note that Tiberi told me his recovery is excellent and during last year's Vuelta he felt better and better as days passed. The route is certainly on his side, with the amount of TT kms and the abundance of 6-8% climbs, since he doesn't fancy particularly steep hills.

I'd say right now fans and bookmakers favor Tiberi over Uijtdebroeks partly because of recency bias. It's true that Cian was much better in Tirreno, but Tiberi has steadily improved race after race and looked excellent in TotA.

Everything considered, I reckon a top10 should be reachable for Tiberi in this field. Anything more would be a great result in my eyes. Uijtdebroeks likely has a higher ceiling but I'm not very confident after his first mnths with Visma.

I'm not saying it's impossible for Tiberi, as i recall, he's always had good numbers. But getting better as days pass... that can hardly be used as a yardstick considering he was already 50 minutes down in GC. On day 16 there was an easy stage with a cat 2 climb at the end, he still finished behind Uijtdebroeks, so what is that really worth, getting better, when you are still not good enough to beat the guy who doesn't make the same claims about getting better? When you take it easy the first 2 weeks, you will obviously be able to perform better in the third week relatively speaking, compared to riders who've been going all out since day 1.

How much stock are people willing to put in a good TotA result? He beat Paret-Paintre by 2 seconds. Cepeda has also finished 4th in TotA twice in recent years, his best GT result is 53rd. Skjelmose/Trek was also quite bullish on his GT chances ahead of last year's TDF. It didn't exactly work out for him either. So confidence is not really something i will use as any sort of indication.

Bottomline, Uijtdebroeks (and his entire team) did one bad race a month and a half before the start of the Giro and people go berserk. He was still ahead of Thomas the day before he DNF, and Thomas is expected to be runner-up in the giro. While a rider who just recently showed some potential in 1 week races, is now expected to suddenly do the same in a GT. I can't predict who will finish ahead, so i won't be making any bold claims, but i'd still give the advantage to Uijtdebroeks, who has been very consistent for two years, with the only exception of Tirreno. While Tiberi has neither been consistent, nor having shown he can top 5 a GT.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Can't wait for another highly anticipate chapter in the story of this famous rivalry between cian Ujtedbrecks and Antonio Tiberi. Surely two of the most popular guys in our sport

 

[Froome]

Can't wait for another highly anticipate chapter in the story of this famous rivalry between cian Ujtedbrecks and Antonio Tiberi. Surely two of the most popular guys in our sport

The fight of the year after Remco vs martinez on alto de foia.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Can't wait for another highly anticipate chapter in the story of this famous rivalry between cian Ujtedbrecks and Antonio Tiberi. Surely two of the most popular guys in our sport

Sorry you are feeling left out. If it makes a difference, the great Masnada once finished 5th in Tour of the Alps, and he was able to -once- finish a GT inside the top 10 as well. So it is certainly possible.

 

[Berniece]

Last year he peaked for one week stage races in the spring, and it was not certain he would ride the Vuelta later on, or even for GC, for which he had time to rest and build up again. Now he didn't peak for these stage races in the spring since he was working towards the Giro. So you can't compare those results.

For me, Tiberi has a lot to prove as a GT GC rider, while i feel unreasonable questionmarks are being placed next to one single bad result for Uijtdebroeks. No explanations or context sought for. But for Arensman, there is an explanation and context, apparently.

Sure, but the expectations are higher, and you also expect a higher base level. At least I did. Doesn't mean he won't do a good Giro, just means that expectations are lower. This is purely my take, I still think that if he's in decent form he should finish top 5. Pogacar, Thomas, Bardet, O'Connor and Uijtdebroeks might be the top 5. With Martinez, Arensman, Caruso, Tiberi, and someone else for top 10.

Also I think Arensman is performing like he always did at Ineos. Nothing really special. I found him better at DSM, than at Ineos last year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sure, but the expectations are higher, and you also expect a higher base level.

Who says he doesn't have a higher base level? Again, you are comparing races he peaked for last year, to races he did not peak for this year, and the results are quite similar. That's a possible indication that his base level is now higher.

 

[Tim Cahill]

The most unfortunate byproduct of Pogacar and Evenepoel is that they've given fans a completely unrealistic perspective as to what can be expected from young riders.

He's just turned 21, he's going to have some bad races now and again, he's top 10'd every stage race he's finished as a pro. Sure Ayuso is a bit better than him at this point, but his physical peak is still probably 5-10 years away and he's there or thereabouts, an incredible talent, he's just going to get a harder time after every bad result because of the whining he did.

 

[Froome]

The most unfortunate byproduct of Pogacar and Evenepoel is that they've given fans a completely unrealistic perspective as to what can be expected from young riders.

He's just turned 21, he's going to have some bad races now and again, he's top 10'd every stage race he's finished as a pro. Sure Ayuso is a bit better than him at this point, but his physical peak is still probably 5-10 years away and he's there or thereabouts, an incredible talent, he's just going to get a harder time after every bad result because of the whining he did.

Uijdtbroeks already did top 10 in a GT with 20 years. It was a great result.

 

[Berniece]

Who says he doesn't have a higher base level? Again, you are comparing races he peaked for last year, to races he did not peak for this year, and the results are quite similar. That's a possible indication that his base level is now higher.

He didn’t peak for every race last year in spring, that’s not possible. He was already good in Oman.

He just didn’t impress me this spring campaign, he didn’t seem strong to me compared to other people riding. While last year he did. Don’t know what more there is to say. I still expect him to do well in the Giro.

 

[Salvarani]

I was also fairly surprised when Tiberi claimed he had the realistic goal of finishing top5 in GC (and dreaming of a podium).
But considering his limited experience as a team leader and the fact Bahrain elected to send him as a captain while having both Caruso and Poels available, his numbers must be very good at the moment. Otherwise the team wouldn't be so confident.
Note that Tiberi told me his recovery is excellent and during last year's Vuelta he felt better and better as days passed. The route is certainly on his side, with the amount of TT kms and the abundance of 6-8% climbs, since he doesn't fancy particularly steep hills.

I'd say right now fans and bookmakers favor Tiberi over Uijtdebroeks partly because of recency bias. It's true that Cian was much better in Tirreno, but Tiberi has steadily improved race after race and looked excellent in TotA.

Everything considered, I reckon a top10 should be reachable for Tiberi in this field. Anything more would be a great result in my eyes. Uijtdebroeks likely has a higher ceiling but I'm not very confident after his first mnths with Visma.

T-A was also his first real race after Andalucia being cancelled. Might have needed it to get up to speed.

He has looked very good after that and he did very well on some of the hardest stages of the Vuelta last year, while riding for his leaders... not really trying to go for a result of his own but still finishing 18th in the end. Not bad at all.

He has improved. Will be interesting to see how he does.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He didn’t peak for every race last year in spring, that’s not possible. He was already good in Oman.

He just didn’t impress me this spring campaign, he didn’t seem strong to me compared to other people riding. While last year he did. Don’t know what more there is to say. I still expect him to do well in the Giro.

Last year it was his first real pro season, the idea was the he would not do a GT yet (initially). So a large emphasis was on the spring stage races from the very beginning, because these were the opportunities where he wanted to show himself. This year, that was not the case, this year these races were simply part of his prep towards the Giro. So it's a completely different approach. So comparing is useless.

 

[Keldergoat]

Last year it was his first real pro season, the idea was the he would not do a GT yet (initially). So a large emphasis was on the spring stage races from the very beginning, because these were the opportunities where he wanted to show himself. This year, that was not the case, this year these races were simply part of his prep towards the Giro. So it's a completely different approach. So comparing is useless.

I love how you always defend your protégés (Evenepoel, Uijtdebroeks) like they are your own children. Berniece is only saying that Uijtdebroeks season has been a bit underwhelming so far (which every cycling lover would agree after his promising last season), and you somehow tend to make it look like a clueless post.

 

[Berniece]

Last year it was his first real pro season, the idea was the he would not do a GT yet (initially). So a large emphasis was on the spring stage races from the very beginning, because these were the opportunities where he wanted to show himself. This year, that was not the case, this year these races were simply part of his prep towards the Giro. So it's a completely different approach. So comparing is useless.

That’s not true. The Vuelta was always part of the plan for 2023. At least when they made his actual program for 2023, in the beginning of 2023.

Cian Uijtdebroeks: "Rustgevend om in de luwte van Evenepoel te kunnen groeien" | sporza

Cian Uijtdebroeks (Bora-Hansgrohe) is in de wolken met zijn titel van Belofte van het Jaar. "Ik zal een week keigelukkig op mijn fiets zitten", zegt de 19-jarige renner, die veel leert uit het parcours dat Remco Evenepoel aan het afleggen is.

sporza.be

I disagree that you can’t expect a young rider to do better 1 year later even though he didn’t peak yet. The whole point is that your base level get’s higher and you can ride similar results at a similar level thanks to being stronger and older. So I stand by saying his performance was a bit underwhelming (for me), I expected more from him this spring. I can still see him ride a great Giro.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I love how you always defend your protégés (Evenepoel, Uijtdebroeks) like they are your own children. Berniece is only saying that Uijtdebroeks season has been a bit underwhelming so far (which every cycling lover would agree after his promising last season), and you somehow tend to make it look like a clueless post.

It's good that you are here to make this analysis, especially when it comes to a rider i feel very little affection for. So thanks for the laugh. I know what he is saying, all i am saying is that you can not compare spring 2023 to 2024 for reasons explained.

That’s not true. The Vuelta was always part of the plan for 2023. At least when they made his actual program for 2023, in the beginning of 2023.

Cian Uijtdebroeks: "Rustgevend om in de luwte van Evenepoel te kunnen groeien" | sporza

Cian Uijtdebroeks (Bora-Hansgrohe) is in de wolken met zijn titel van Belofte van het Jaar. "Ik zal een week keigelukkig op mijn fiets zitten", zegt de 19-jarige renner, die veel leert uit het parcours dat Remco Evenepoel aan het afleggen is.

sporza.be

I disagree that you can’t expect a young rider to do better 1 year later even though he didn’t peak yet. The whole point is that your base level get’s higher and you can ride similar results at a similar level thanks to being stronger and older. So I stand by saying his performance was a bit underwhelming (for me), I expected more from him this spring. I can still see him ride a great Giro.

Here is an interview of a week earlier, where he said he it was not decided he would ride a GT, so no, it was not always the plan for 2023. In the interview you quoted, he literally says he will not ride for a result and not ride for GC. Which basically boils down to the same thing, since the spring stage races were the races where he wanted to test and show himself.

I never said you can not expect a young rider to do better than 1 year earlier. I simply did not agree with your conclusion that his base level has not improved. You simply can't come to that conclusion as i explained. You are free to find his season so far underwhelming, i don't necessarily disagree with that.

 

[Berniece]

Here is an interview of a week earlier, where he said he it was not decided he would ride a GT, so no, it was not always the plan for 2023. In the interview you quoted, he literally says he will not ride for a result and not ride for GC. Which basically boils down to the same thing, since the spring stage races were the races where he wanted to test and show himself.

I never said you can not expect a young rider to do better than 1 year earlier. I simply did not agree with your conclusion that his base level has not improved. You simply can't come to that conclusion as i explained. You are free to find his season so far underwhelming, i don't necessarily disagree with that.

He says they aren’t riding the TDF and not the Giro, a week later they are going for the Vuelta. To me that sounds like they already knew he was going for the Vuelta, but are keeping expectations low. Which is normal for his age. When Evenepoel started Vuelta 2022, the goal was 2 stage wins and top 10. But this isn't that important to the discussion, imo.

I get your point though. Last year he already peaked in spring, this year he didn't peak yet, and you feel that's why you can't say his base level improved, because there's no proper comparison based on at what level of his abilities he's at.

But to be clear, I never said his base level didn't improve. I said I expected more from it. I also said that it probably has to do with his winter and the shitty weather that we weren't able to properly see how good he's riding now. I don't see what's wrong with that.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Uijtdebroeks is currently underhyped. "Perhaps a top 10 might be possible if all goes wel..." Come on, in this field he's one of the podium candidates. All he needs to do is limit the damage in the time trials and stay with the better climbers.

Visma came with a sprinter's team, but Gesink and Valter can stay with him until the final climb in most stages. If he's isolated my advice is to ignore Pogacar's attacks and follow the Ineos train. They always ride a regular pace. Just stay with Thomas and you'll be fine. Except of course if Thomas is twenty minutes behind or dives into a ravine.

 

[Statze2]

Yes Cian can still perform and is able to secure a top 10 in GC. It will be interesting to see what time damage will hapen over both ITT.
In the first ITT the first 34 km are flat and the last 6 km are uphill. The second ITT is totally flat. Based on his performance in Stage 8 of last years Tour de Suisse (which is in my opinion the last comparable ITT, he lost 1:16 on Ayuso over 25 km) i think he is going to lose about 2-3 minutes in each time trial against the best TT riders. In the GC field are some better TT riders like Pogacar, Thomas, Martinez, Tiberi, Arensman and O´Connor. All of these riders should finish significantly in front of him in the TTs.
So i think a Top 5 is out of reach, because i´m not seeing him gaining about 4-5 minutes back on the mountain stages against the six mentioned riders. So he will fight against Bardet, Caruso, Dunbar, Quintana and compared to them he can grab a 7th place in GC. The risk in this calculation ist that he isn´t allowed to have a bad day in the mountains oder medium mountain stages. Not in his favor is the way the route is build, after both ITTs there are heavy mountain stages, especially after the second ITT there are 3 moutain stages. So he needs to go all out in the ITT´s to reduce the damage, and on the next day(s) he also needs his climbing on point. So its likely that he get one "bad" mountain day where he can not compete with the best climbers (because of his efforts in the ITTs) in the giro and he has no teammates that can help him out there (maybe Valter a bit). And that can blow him out of the Top 10 in GC.

But that doesn´t matter. He is a young talented rider with one weakness which could be adressed.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Uijtdebroeks is currently underhyped. "Perhaps a top 10 might be possible if all goes wel..." Come on, in this field he's one of the podium candidates. All he needs to do is limit the damage in the time trials and stay with the better climbers.

Visma came with a sprinter's team, but Gesink and Valter can stay with him until the final climb in most stages. If he's isolated my advice is to ignore Pogacar's attacks and follow the Ineos train. They always ride a regular pace. Just stay with Thomas and you'll be fine. Except of course if Thomas is twenty minutes behind or dives into a ravine.

There's an article on Sporza with a Visma trainer, who assumes the Bora soapopera took a lot of energy out of him and caused plenty of stress and pressure over the winter, which made him implode last month. I agree that there is a lot of overreacting going on here based on his appearance in Catalunya, and imho Uijtdebroeks is a rider that will have an easier time getting a good result in a 3 week race than a 1 week race, simply because he is such a diesel. Of course he didn't race after that, so we don't know if the issues are gone. Assuming they are, i wouldn't completely rule out a podium spot either. Intrinsically he is one of the better climbers of the race, and i think he has the engine to stomach a 3 week battle.

But whatever caused Catalunya, and whether the changes in training and nutrition with moving to Visma will impact his Giro, we'll need to wait and see. Top 10 seems like lowballing, but all things considered it's pretty hard to make a more in depth prediction.

 

[Netserk]

There's an article on Sporza with a Visma trainer, who assumes the Bora soapopera took a lot of energy out of him and caused plenty of stress and pressure over the winter, which made him implode last month.

To even things out, he should implode for the rest of the season.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

To even things out, he should implode for the rest of the season.

Who knows, but even if he doesn't you'll probably get your fun during the TT's. Bonus points for the helmet.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Who knows, but even if he doesn't you'll probably get your fun during the TT's. Bonus points for the helmet.

The helmet is probably really unaerodynamic if you don‘t hold your head right so let‘s hope Cian has spent some time in the wind tunnel.

 

[Berniece]

I still believe in him for the white jersey, Arensman will be the toughest nut to crack

 

[Mayomaniac]

I have some doubts about the shape of Oiterbrucks because he hasn't raced since the Catalunya dnf. Otherwise he'd be the clear favourite for the white jersey.