Clásica San Sebastián 2022, one day race, July 30

[Krzysztof_O]

Evenepoel is yet to lose a GT he finished.

Remco still unbeaten when healthy, uninjured, not fat and with a proper base-training.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Remco still unbeaten when healthy, uninjured, not fat and with a proper base-training.

Remco unbeaten when crossing the line first.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Oh yes, so yummy, so surprising. Another theory that places any source of criticism towards a rider's performance and the hype around it in the personal flaws of the critic. Yawn.

Context:

1. about half the peloton in San Sebastian DNF;
2. riders are either tired or preparing for other late season goals;
3. Remco after winning LBL and a thrilling Tour of Norway bonked hard in Tour de Suisse;
4. the hype thread went through yeta another meltdown pointing out reasons;
5. after yesterday, the hype got renewed again;

It could be the case that other riders were not using San Sebastian like a race in itself, but just as a warming up. There is then a virtual startlist composed of all the riders that got into the race, but the real startlist is just about very few riders that decided to really try to win it. And that list was really small and somewhat weak. While all this doesn't diminish Remco's win (is a win is a win), it puts into its proper context.

Now, I think Remco is really exciting, but managing his efforts and knowing himself doesn't seem a skill set he has mastered yet. While fans are excited by performances, going full gas on one race can well have practical effects on late season goals (VDP and Pogacar come to mind).

You didn't answer the question of Big Doopy.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

It's hard to say yet. After he finishes one GT, that will give him tremendous confidence to tackle others. A lot will depend on the kind of racer that he wants to be or that his DS wants him to be. Does he want to be (or can he be) a lightweight mountaintop guy? Or does he want to be a green jersey guy like Sagan or WvA? There's much fame and fortune in that too.

I have no doubt that Evenepoel, if he can keep his form for another three weeks, can show beautiful things at the start of the Vuelta. At GT level. But can he still do that two weeks later? If he can, even if he only finishes fifth, I think Evenepoel will have a future as a GT driver. But regardless of his young age, he should be able to perform fairly consistently for three weeks. If he can't, I don't think that aspect will improve much with age. He may then be even better and stronger in a few years... but still can't last three weeks.
Hopefully he doesn't have bad luck in the Vuelta, and we will know the answer in five to six weeks;

 

[Riek s]

Contador first tour 2005, 31st in GC (23 years old)
Year after it no GT
2007 1st place

Bernal first tour (2018) 15th place

Vingegaard (2020) Vuelta 46th place



REmco: 22year old.. if he doesn't top5 he will never do it?

Don't think we can judge any consistency based on him being 22 year old (with relative low amount of cycling years). Consistency can be build if you have the talent. Question is why/what is the reason of inconsistency, energy refill? energy expansure? ..

 

[Red Rick]

Contador first tour 2005, 31st in GC (23 years old)
Year after it no GT
2007 1st place

Bernal first tour (2018) 15th place

Vingegaard (2020) Vuelta 46th place



REmco: 22year old.. if he doesn't top5 he will never do it?

Don't think we can judge any consistency based on him being 22 year old (with relative low amount of cycling years). Consistency can be build if you have the talent. Question is why/what is the reason of inconsistency, energy refill? energy expansure? ..

4th year World Tour pro. And this includes being a world class ITTer from the very start. So any late blooming argument goes out the window. Outside of like one stage the route suits him perfectly. Most of the heaviest hitters are sitting it out too.

He needs a big result to be a big threat in GTs for the future.

 

[Riek s]

Contador tdf was in his 3rd year as a pro.
Edit: Indurain did 6 TDF before he won them. (twice DNF, 97, 47, 17, 10)

ITT is sole effort, riding a GT is being as conversative as possible. saving energy by placing in the groupetto correctly EAting correctly and all these things. Those are things you learn by doing, and not get by being born.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

This discussion seem odd or maybe I read some old posts. To me the only question is what will be Remco's gap over the rest at the Vuelta? Hopefully there will be an exciting battle for the second place.

 

[houtdffan]

Again, Remco didnt' bonk or anything at Suisse. He had a borderline heat stroke

The young bucks here all have forgotten (or weren't even following cycling back in 2003) when the same happened to Armstrong. St. Armstrong himself was dropped in back to back mountain stages, and he hardly ever was dropped in the mountains

Sometimes the obvious answer is the right answer. Remco screwed the pooch big time by choosing a bad helmet and not bringing ice in a day that was over 90F. He was so cooked that he forgot the final circuit had 2 more climbs on it

 

[Bolder]

Contador tdf was in his 3rd year as a pro.
Edit: Indurain did 6 TDF before he won them. (twice DNF, 97, 47, 17, 10)

ITT is sole effort, riding a GT is being as conversative as possible. saving energy by placing in the groupetto correctly EAting correctly and all these things. Those are things you learn by doing, and not get by being born.

Unless you're Tadej Pogacar.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

4th year World Tour pro. And this includes being a world class ITTer from the very start. So any late blooming argument goes out the window. Outside of like one stage the route suits him perfectly. Most of the heaviest hitters are sitting it out too.

He needs a big result to be a big threat in GTs for the future.

It's not exactly uncommon for riders to become more consistent with age. Him being great at solos and TTs at 19 doesn't have to mean he is already at his peak over 3 weeks. Secondly, his biggest failures in 1 week GC's have come after his crash. Giro came much too soon, his training and weight wasn't good for Tirreno (he was working towards Liège), and in Suisse clearly something else was up, considering he tanked in the one stage that had his name written all over it.

Him only bleeding seconds on every stage in the Vuelta would be a good sign as it 'd show he could improve. Him completely tanking in one or more stages would be bad considering there is a risk it could be an issue throughout his career. But still there'd be a chance that he could overcome that. He can push the watts and he has the aero, but that doesn't have to mean he is ready to go 3 weeks without a hitch. Sprinters can often push the watts early in their careers as well, but quite a few need a few years before they can go 3 weeks and make it over the mountains.

 

[Valv.Piti]

4th year World Tour pro. And this includes being a world class ITTer from the very start. So any late blooming argument goes out the window. Outside of like one stage the route suits him perfectly. Most of the heaviest hitters are sitting it out too.

He needs a big result to be a big threat in GTs for the future.

What stage you referring to - Sierra Nevada?

 

[YavorD]

It's not exactly uncommon for riders to become more consistent with age. Him being great at solos and TTs at 19 doesn't have to mean he is already at his peak over 3 weeks. Secondly, his biggest failures in 1 week GC's have come after his crash. Giro came much too soon, his training and weight wasn't good for Tirreno (he was working towards Liège), and in Suisse clearly something else was up, considering he tanked in the one stage that had his name written all over it.

But it does seem uncommon for riders to have more than 7 or 8 seasons at a really high level. I consider 2019 as high, so Remco already has 4 seasons.Okay,. I tend to agree with @Red Rick and think that if he doesn't show a big GC result (meaning to me at least top 6), given the route, the field (assuming Rog doesn't start as well) and the fact he is targeting the Vuelta, he won't be a prominent GT rider. Not that he needs to tbh.
For the very same reason, I don't think that Pog at 28-9 will be a better Pogacar than today, my guess is that he'll follow Sagan's career path. Slowly declining after 28.

For the sake of entertaining races I hope Remco shows a good, but not dominant performance and turns out to be a rider who ships some time in the mountains, only to attack like crazy in the hills.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

But it does seem uncommon for riders to have more than 7 or 8 seasons at a really high level. I consider 2019 as high, so Remco already has 4 seasons.Okay,. I tend to agree with @Red Rick and think that if he doesn't show a big GC result (meaning to me at least top 6), given the route, the field (assuming Rog doesn't start as well) and the fact he is targeting the Vuelta, he won't be a prominent GT rider. Not that he needs to tbh.
For the very same reason, I don't think that Pog at 28-9 will be a better Pogacar than today, my guess is that he'll follow Sagan's career path. Slowly declining after 28.

For the sake of entertaining races I hope Remco shows a good, but not dominant performance and turns out to be a rider who ships some time in the mountains, only to attack like crazy in the hills.

I think that's a bit of nonsense tbh. Let's take Van Aert as a counterexample. At 19, Van Aert was also kicking but in CX. Just like TT's these are races of 1 hour. He was already dominating the established order of pro CX and had already made a giant step forward leapfrogging Van der Poel who had historically been superior to him in the youth ranks. Then Van Aert stalled for a few years, only made small progressions, like his short TT win over Martin and a sprint win in Brugge in road racing. Until he was 23 or 24 when he first started riding the classics, remember his first Strade Bianchi. Now Van Aert is a beast and people rightfully wonder if he wouldn't be able to become a GT contender if he lost some additional weight and forgot about sprinting and converted like Wiggins or Dumoulin. Van Aert turns 28 next month or so.

You could say Van Aert only turned to road cycling late, but so did Evenepoel. Imho there is no reason why he couldn't have been an excellent TT'er/soloist at 19, but still have to grow into being able to handle 3 weeks of GT racing.

If you think back at Van Aert in his first Strade, there is no way today's Van Aert would not simply ridicule Benoot and Bardet in that finale, the two riders who finished ahead of him. That's progression made after he already turned 23 while being already dominant at short efforts at 19.

 

[YavorD]

I think that's a bit of nonsense tbh. Let's take Van Aert as a counterexample. At 19, Van Aert was also kicking but in CX. Just like TT's these are races of 1 hour. He was already dominating the established order of pro CX and had already made a giant step forward leapfrogging Van der Poel who had historically been superior to him in the youth ranks. Then Van Aert stalled for a few years, only made small progressions, like his short TT win over Martin and a sprint win in Brugge in road racing. Until he was 23 or 24 when he first started riding the classics, remember his first Strade Bianchi. Now Van Aert is a beast and people rightfully wonder if he wouldn't be able to become a GT contender if he lost some additional weight and forgot about sprinting and converted like Wiggins or Dumoulin. Van Aert turns 28 next month or so.

You could say Van Aert only turned to road cycling late, but so did Evenepoel. Imho there is no reason why he couldn't have been an excellent TT'er/soloist at 19, but still have to grow into being able to handle 3 weeks of GT racing.

If you think back at Van Aert in his first Strade, there is no way today's Van Aert would not simply ridicule Benoot and Bardet in that finale, the two riders who finished ahead of him. That's progression made after he already turned 23 while being already dominant at short efforts at 19.

Obviously, you can point out examples, supporting your theory. Could use Valverde as well if you want. I never said there aren't such riders, all I said was "it's a bit uncommon" For every Valeverde and Van Aert I, and you too, I believe, can put probably 10 riders who didn't progress much after being so good, so young

Now, Remco can indeed be like them, to be serial winner at 35 (, but he may never improve much more as well. He is 22 and he is one of the best riders of the worl, I personally find it unlikely that he will get better and better by the age of 25.
For instance, is Pogacar better rider than last year, will he be better next year?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Obviously, you can point out examples, supporting your theory. Could use Valverde as well if you want. I never said there aren't such riders, all I said was "it's a bit uncommon" For every Valeverde and Van Aert I, and you too, I believe, can put probably 10 riders who didn't progress much after being so good, so young

Now, Remco can indeed be like them, to be serial winner at 35 (, but he may never improve much more as well. He is 22 and he is one of the best riders of the worl, I personally find it unlikely that he will get better and better by the age of 25.
For instance, is Pogacar better rider than last year, will he be better next year?

Nobody is saying he will get better for the next 5-10 years in every aspect. But on terms of stamina and consistency? That is definitely possible. And that is exactly where he might need to improve. Not in TT'ing or watts.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Contador tdf was in his 3rd year as a pro.
Edit: Indurain did 6 TDF before he won them. (twice DNF, 97, 47, 17, 10)

TBF, Contador had big results his first pro year then I believe missed a year or so due to, what, brain surgery? Then again, Remco too missed a huge chunk of time.

But it does seem uncommon for riders to have more than 7 or 8 seasons at a really high level. I consider 2019 as high, so Remco already has 4 seasons.Okay,. I tend to agree with @Red Rick and think that if he doesn't show a big GC result (meaning to me at least top 6), given the route, the field (assuming Rog doesn't start as well) and the fact he is targeting the Vuelta, he won't be a prominent GT rider. Not that he needs to tbh.
For the very same reason, I don't think that Pog at 28-9 will be a better Pogacar than today, my guess is that he'll follow Sagan's career path.

I agree with the larger point and have often made this same case in the past. If you look at top GC riders, they seem to get 7 or 8 years at the top max.
Lance: 1999-2000
Contador: 2007-2015
Nibali: 2010-2016
Froome: 2011-2018 (I would speculate he was on his way down by 2019 when he crashed, but we’ll never know)
Quintana: 2013-2017
Roglic: 2019-? Likely not 2029 or longer

However, I would think Remco’s crash, he might just be entering the start of his time at the top and we might be in for another 6 or so years. And given his strength in ITT, I would expect he would follow the mode of other riders in that vein (Indurain, Wiggins, Dumoulin, Roglic), all of whom rose to the top as GC riders relatively later than the pure climbers.

 

[Big Doopie]

TBF, Contador had big results his first pro year then I believe missed a year or so due to, what, brain surgery? Then again, Remco too missed a huge chunk of time.

I agree with the larger point and have often made this same case in the past. If you look at top GC riders, they seem to get 7 or 8 years at the top max.
Lance: 1999-2000
Contador: 2007-2015
Nibali: 2010-2016
Froome: 2011-2018 (I would speculate he was on his way down by 2019 when he crashed, but we’ll never know)
Quintana: 2013-2017
Roglic: 2019-? Likely not 2029 or longer

However, I would think Remco’s crash, he might just be entering the start of his time at the top and we might be in for another 6 or so years. And given his strength in ITT, I would expect he would follow the mode of other riders in that vein (Indurain, Wiggins, Dumoulin, Roglic), all of whom rose to the top as GC riders relatively later than the pure climbers.

not sure where this "number of years pro" became a thing. don't think it ever has been.

i do not believe Remco's progression should be limited simply because he jumped from juniors to pros directly (or just because some people want it to be).

the idea that because remco is in his fourth year he should be judged like a rider who went through U23s and is now 26 and a pro. no. if anything, remco may be behind because he started cycling late...

Look at Vlasov, Martinez and Gaudu, now having their best years (yet!).

the traditional pro cyclist:

Shows qualities (if for GT, then for GT) by age 23 or so.
They progress and get stronger from 23-27.
They are at their top from 27-30.

There are of course exceptions to this (Poulidor, Van Springel, Zoetemelk, etc...). Longevity may now also be extended because of nutrition and training methods, but often it is the mental that goes first.

Just because Remco had terrific pro results in 2019 (at age 19) does not mean that it necessarily must be counted as one of his top years. In fact, that is highly, highly unlikely. I expect his top years to be from ages 23-30.

Also, good TTers do not progress later necessarily...Anquetil, Merckx, Hinault, Lemond, all excellent TTers from day one. In fact, being a top TT-er from an early age was often an indication that you may be a great GTer (in the days when routes were more balanced).

The examples you are using are faulty (Roglic started cycling late, Wiggins had to lose a ton of weight and stop pursuing track). And sometimes you are using examples from the 1990-2010 era (Armstrong, Indurain, and Contador) when natural progression was completely distorted. even Guimard has been interviewed and said that in that era you cannot really judge the talent hierarchy.