Congrats to Gerrans on MSR.... BUT

[Zam_Olyas]

It makes me appreciate Armstrong the I watch Canc ride. Armstrong attacked ones and it made a difference. Clinic issues aside Canc needs to pay a visit to Lance's house and do session on the blackboard. He then needs to take the Lance playbook home and study it before Flanders.

Very good post TheHog.

 

[Maxiton]

Very good post TheHog.

I noticed that, too. It was a good post, and it's kind of refreshing to see Armstrong discussed as a rider, and not as a Clinic subject. But the thing is, Armstrong is a very different rider from Canc. Armstrong could make attacks stick in part because he had most often been towed through most of the stage by the Blue Train, which is no small fact; but also because he was, over all, the best climber in the peloton. Or, at least, the best when it counted most. Cancellara is a good climber, for his size and his specialty, but no Armstrong, and he definitely has no train, of any color. On the other hand, though, Armstrong didn't have Cancellara's engine, descending skills, or TT ability. So I think it's an apples and oranges comparison, and Armstrong has nothing to teach Cancellara.

 

[rhubroma]

Okay, then why did he attack on the Poggio if he thought he could win with that attack. Your legs don't change that dramatically to be able to make a massive attack and then be completely stuffed a couple of minutes later even though you haven't done that much more work. He could have at least tried. I guess we have seen the end of the race a bit differently.

I'm sorry to say, but you've got to be the thickest guy on this forum.
While you certainly have little experience racing bikes.

So let me explain it to you reeeeaaaalllll ssssssllllllooooooowwwwwww.

Nibali (the Italian guy, understood?) was forced to give every last bit of energy on the Poggio to try and create a gap, ideally to solo over the top, to then hold on for the victory (or be with only one other rider, slower than him in the sprint), his only chance at victory. In fact in today's la Gazzetta dello Sport, Nibali said his attack on the Poggio had been studied at table in the morning with the squadra, but that he knew with those two there was no chance for victory. He also mentioned that the descent from the Poggio was done at a crazy speed, that he suffered and finally tried to get on Fabian's wheel but that Gerrans made it impossible.

Gerrans, your mate, was told by his team to be the stopper on the Poggio, to thus go with anyone who tried to get away, had he the legs, and was successful in his role. (All of which was documented on the RAI interviews.)

Cancellara had to abide by a similar tactic as Nibali, because he too, though not as much as the Italian, was significantly disadvantaged in the sprint.

The split was desperately small, so, quite reasonably, Cancellara took matters into his own hands, being the only one of the trio to be able to motor to the finish with any hope of holding off the others.

Cancellara tried to involve the others in his desparation, though, while Gerrans was able to pull through twice, NIBALI WAS NOT, and said so in the interview immediately after the finish: "Fabain asked for a change, but then he didn't slow down". When a rider in a situation like that, and after 300 ks, says that the guy who was pulling, didn't slow down while looking for a change, means that he could simply not pull through. Or if he does pull through, the velocity drops and, with the chasers boring down upon them at 5 seconds, they get caught and surpassed in the sprint. Capito?

Apart from the these things we have examined so far, the fact that Nibili was unable to come around the others in the sprint, is proof that he wasn't bluffing when he didn't pull through, let alone attack! in the last two ks. He was simply squeezing the last drops of energy out of himself just to stay hitched to Cancellara (and Gerrans), saying it was like riding a time trial, thus at one's limit (la Gazzetta dello Sport, today). Capito?

Lastly, as far as the Italian is concerned, besides being without reserves, there wasn't even an incentive to either help or attack, having his teammate Sagan in the chase group so close. This meant had the trio gotten caught, Sagan becomes the man to take the sprint: thus tactically there was no reason for Nibali to assist. But even under the circumstances, had Nibali pulled through, or attacked as you say, he would have eliminated any hope of winning the sprint for himself, which, as we have seem, wasn't even possible to him even by just sitting on wheels. In fact for a combination of all these reasons, both owing to fatigue and tactics, he decided for himself that under no circumstances would he move to the front. (la Gazzetta dello Sport, today)

Now either because Gerrans was just being savvy, or he too was not able to maintain the Swiss' impossible rhythm, or, having done his two turns, a combination of both: whatever the case, he hedged his bet well and had just enough gas at the end (but not by much!) to come around the Swiss. Bravo! While even if Cancellara thought he could grind him down, it was a gamble under the dire circumstances he was forced to take. For the Swiss, in any case, had no other choice, and probably knew he was racing for a podium placing (rather than 10th if getting caught from behind), but at the same time in the slightest hope that he may have been able to resist Gerrans in the final sprint. Thus in racing for a podium spot, Cancellara was at once also giving himself the only opportunity for victory. Rather than racing "tactically" correct to position himself best for the sprint by sitting up and forcing the others to move forward, Cancellara choose, quite instinctively, to maintian his relentless pace to prevent the trio from getting caught and losing the podium as well.

Capito?

Moral: Nibali laid it all out on the line on the last climb to play his sole victory card, found two ugly clients he wasn’t able to shake off and, spent afterwards, still held on for third, because of the awesome motor of the Swiss. Fabian, for his part, did everything he possibly could to have escaped the fastest of the sprinters, but found he had to take over the reigns as the only means to not have them come back at the end and got second. The Australian found himself in the ideal, perhaps once in a lifetime situation, for which he was able to take full advantage of the athletic prowess of the others and, of the three having the most speed at the end, took the narrow win. The strongest, however, was Cancellara.

PS: It isn’t that we are just reading the finish differently, but that you obviously didn't understand what you saw.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I agree with most of your post-however,It's an undeniable fact that Gerro had to be "strong enough to follow Nibali & Cance" afterwards-which was exactly what Nuyens did last year in Ronde both were the better sprinters among their competitors

But being "strong enough to follow" and being "equal strongest" are two different things.

Cancellara was strongest. Gerrans won.

 

[taiwan]

...Anyway, it has to be said that Gerrans has a nose for a win, which is a good characteristic in itself. He must have a very good record from a small group.

Two more Monuments, and however many nice day races are within reach for him.

 

[rhubroma]

And speaking of Gerrans, what did he have to say about the end of the race in la Gazzetta dello Sport?

Gerrans, the slyest beat the strongest?

"I did what I had to and I won. Within the team the tasks were clear: myself to follow the attackers, Gos to dispute the sprint. When Nibali attacked on the Poggio, I obeyed our (team) strategy, and so I followed. Meanwhile behind, Gos was saving his energy basing his race on the other sprinters. I realize Cancellara did all the work. He was the strongest. On the climb he caught Nibili and myself, and he passed us like a motorcycle. On the descent he went down faster than a motorcycle, accelerating also in the curves. Several times I lost his wheel, and I suffered to regain it."

When did you feel you could win?

"In the last 3 k. I gave a change to Nibali on the climb, while to Cancellara I gave one on the flat, even if that wasn't tactically the smartest thing to do: I was defending Gos. I knew how to win the sprint. In fact I accelerated at just the right moment. I don't know if it was better strategy, or more energy; better intelligence or more resistance. I know I have a certain tactical astuteness, though. Perhaps its in my nature, my character, or just instinct."

 

[maltiv]

I remember Mads Kaggestad described Gerrans some time ago as a "surpisingly mediocre cyclist who has gotten the absolute maximum out of his limited talent". Gerrans actually rode for Team Ringerike, a small continental team in Norway, in his 20's. At that point, they weren't sure if he were strong enough to even become a professional.

Now, he has won a monument and stages in all grand tours. Incredible.

 

[rhubroma]

It makes me appreciate Armstrong the I watch Canc ride. Armstrong attacked ones and it made a difference. Clinic issues aside Canc needs to pay a visit to Lance's house and do session on the blackboard. He then needs to take the Lance playbook home and study it before Flanders.

Two completely differnt riders: one a classics/time trial phenom, the other a Tour champion.

When did Lance ever attack once and win any classic? In fact the times he did go he either screwed up (Liege-Bastogne-Liege: post cancer), or else was out-foxed in the sprint finish (Liege-Bastogne-Liege, pre-cancer and Amstel Gold). And how is it even possible to compare l'Alpe d'Huez to the "The Muur," or the cobbles of Roubaix to Mont Ventoux?

I don't get all these criticisms of Cancellara. He played his only possible card well, yesterday, but found a rival that strategically and based on the dynamic of the course had everything in his favor and capitalized on it. But second place is better than tenth, after all.

 

[Netserk]

And if Nibbles hadn't attacked, but riding tempo in the front the last 1.5 km of Poggio, it would most likely have ended with a bunch sprint. The question is whether or not Sagan would have been the strongest sprinter left? Would Liqui and Katusha have been able to drop the likes of Boonen and Goss? I think it would have ended with a 30 man sprint with Boonen or Sagan winning.

 

[leftover pie]

so am i to understand that gerrans' win doesn't really count because he didn't win in the right way?

i wonder if they'll mark the wiki entry with a *




it must be classics season.

 

[taiwan]

And if Nibbles hadn't attacked, but riding tempo in the front the last 1.5 km of Poggio, it would most likely have ended with a bunch sprint. The question is whether or not Sagan would have been the strongest sprinter left? Would Liqui and Katusha have been able to drop the likes of Boonen and Goss? I think it would have ended with a 30 man sprint with Boonen or Sagan winning.

Yeah I agree. Cavendish, Farrar and Greipel were gone by the Poggio, but if Nibali had ridden tempo, Sagan might have been sprinting vs: Goss, Freire, Degenkolb, Boonen, Ventoso, Bennati, Renshaw, Modolo, Boasson Hagen - Going by the makeup of the first big group back.

I wouldn't have been surprised if Sagan had won that, but it would be far from a done deal. Nibali's attack caused an 8 man chase group to form in which Sagan's chances were better. If Canc-Gerrans-Nibali had been caught, we'd be looking at a podium of Freire, Sagan and Degenkolb in some order. Basically what I'm saying is Nibali had to stick his neck out and attack to get rid of as many sprinters as possible, so they played their cards right.

 

[El Pistolero]

Boonen was in 15th position at the top of the Poggio, but got stuck behind a crash on the descent. Just so you know.

 

[Froome19]

Wow. We're going to revolutionise cycling. We'll just test the riders, decide who's the strongest and give them the champagne. No need to actually hold the race any more!

As rhubroma points out, Cancellara plays his tactics, which includes putting riders into the red (and hopefully killing their sprint) through sheer TT power, holding Cancellara's wheel at the end of 300k isn't easy.

And as for sitting in for 8km - I would love to see how riders would swap turns on the downhill of Poggio at 80kmh??? LOL.

No one is arguing for that.

That's a valid point, though only if the team didn't split their roles: Bennati for the sprint and Cancellara for whatever he can invent.

In the greater dynamics of the team, I'm sure Cancellara, in a classic, is only a lead-out man for the Italian, if he hasn't the legs to attempt a radical move.

Given his peformance today, to say nothing of his recent time-trial victory at Tirreno-Adriatico, his tactic in riding for himself was justified.

Bennatti will never win a classic (logically) so therefore it would stupid to waste a resource such as Cancellara on someone who wont win, if anyone truly cared about Bennati the whole race dynamics would have been different as Cancellara wouldnt have been required to do all the work as he could have sat up like Sagan and Nibali etc.
You dont ride for a guy like Bennati regardless if you have a guy like Cancellara

Okay, then why did he attack on the Poggio if he thought he could win with that attack. Your legs don't change that dramatically to be able to make a massive attack and then be completely stuffed a couple of minutes later even though you haven't done that much more work. He could have at least tried. I guess we have seen the end of the race a bit differently.

He is Italian; this race means a load to him and he is a climber.

What else do you expect him to do
He is racing the race for himself partially and there was no other way he could have had an impact, a climber doesnt just attack on flat..
And anyway the attack was nearly very successful as it nearly led to the 3 being caught and Katusha pushed out so Sagan winning which was another reason why he attacked (to put sagan in a better position) he wouldnt have been much help whilst leading sagan out.

 

[cineteq]

I'm sorry to say, but you've got to be the thickest guy on this forum.
While you certainly have little experience racing bikes.

So let me explain it to you reeeeaaaalllll ssssssllllllooooooowwwwwww.

Nibali (the Italian guy, understood?) was forced to give every last bit of energy on the Poggio to try and create a gap, ideally to solo over the top, to then hold on for the victory (or be with only one other rider, slower than him in the sprint), his only chance at victory. In fact in today's la Gazzetta dello Sport, Nibali said his attack on the Poggio had been studied at table in the morning with the squadra, but that he knew with those two there was no chance for victory. He also mentioned that the descent from the Poggio was done at a crazy speed, that he suffered and finally tried to get on Fabian's wheel but that Gerrans made it impossible.

Gerrans, your mate, was told by his team to be the stopper on the Poggio, to thus go with anyone who tried to get away, had he the legs, and was successful in his role. (All of which was documented on the RAI interviews.)

Cancellara had to abide by a similar tactic as Nibali, because he too, though not as much as the Italian, was significantly disadvantaged in the sprint.

The split was desperately small, so, quite reasonably, Cancellara took matters into his own hands, being the only one of the trio to be able to motor to the finish with any hope of holding off the others.

Cancellara tried to involve the others in his desparation, though, while Gerrans was able to pull through twice, NIBALI WAS NOT, and said so in the interview immediately after the finish: "Fabain asked for a change, but then he didn't slow down". When a rider in a situation like that, and after 300 ks, says that the guy who was pulling, didn't slow down while looking for a change, means that he could simply not pull through. Or if he does pull through, the velocity drops and, with the chasers boring down upon them at 5 seconds, they get caught and surpassed in the sprint. Capito?

Apart from the these things we have examined so far, the fact that Nibili was unable to come around the others in the sprint, is proof that he wasn't bluffing when he didn't pull through, let alone attack! in the last two ks. He was simply squeezing the last drops of energy out of himself just to stay hitched to Cancellara (and Gerrans), saying it was like riding a time trial, thus at one's limit (la Gazzetta dello Sport, today). Capito?

Lastly, as far as the Italian is concerned, besides being without reserves, there wasn't even an incentive to either help or attack, having his teammate Sagan in the chase group so close. This meant had the trio gotten caught, Sagan becomes the man to take the sprint: thus tactically there was no reason for Nibali to assist. But even under the circumstances, had Nibali pulled through, or attacked as you say, he would have eliminated any hope of winning the sprint for himself, which, as we have seem, wasn't even possible to him even by just sitting on wheels. In fact for a combination of all these reasons, both owing to fatigue and tactics, he decided for himself that under no circumstances would he move to the front. (la Gazzetta dello Sport, today)

Now either because Gerrans was just being savvy, or he too was not able to maintain the Swiss' impossible rhythm, or, having done his two turns, a combination of both: whatever the case, he hedged his bet well and had just enough gas at the end (but not by much!) to come around the Swiss. Bravo! While even if Cancellara thought he could grind him down, it was a gamble under the dire circumstances he was forced to take. For the Swiss, in any case, had no other choice, and probably knew he was racing for a podium placing (rather than 10th if getting caught from behind), but at the same time in the slightest hope that he may have been able to resist Gerrans in the final sprint. Thus in racing for a podium spot, Cancellara was at once also giving himself the only opportunity for victory. Rather than racing "tactically" correct to position himself best for the sprint by sitting up and forcing the others to move forward, Cancellara choose, quite instinctively, to maintian his relentless pace to prevent the trio from getting caught and losing the podium as well.

Capito?

Moral: Nibali laid it all out on the line on the last climb to play his sole victory card, found two ugly clients he wasn’t able to shake off and, spent afterwards, still held on for third, because of the awesome motor of the Swiss. Fabian, for his part, did everything he possibly could to have escaped the fastest of the sprinters, but found he had to take over the reigns as the only means to not have them come back at the end and got second. The Australian found himself in the ideal, perhaps once in a lifetime situation, for which he was able to take full advantage of the athletic prowess of the others and, of the three having the most speed at the end, took the narrow win. The strongest, however, was Cancellara.

This is exactly how I saw it. No rider was stupid or smarter, they just played their cards the best they could, but somebody had to win. Great post!

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Exactly. Whats the big deal?

Gerrans used his head. He knew Cancellara would have to keep riding coz if he didnt the front 3 would of been caught and Cancellara knew if they got caught then it would of been probably Sagan that would win and his chance would of been gone. Cancellara knew he would have a better chance in the sprint against Gerrans and Nibali then against Sagan, Degenkolb and Freire and thats why he kept riding at the front as he was the only rider out of the 3 capable of holding of the other group being led by Katusha. Gerrans had the intelligence to know this as well and just kept on Cancellara`s wheel as a result.

There isn't a big deal. I was responding to a post that claimed Cancellara, Nibali and Gerrans were all equal strongest yesterday. They weren't. Cancellara was stronger than the other two, but Gerrans was close enough to take advantage. Not a criticism of Gerrans, if anything it's praise of him since I'm saying that he was able to win when not the strongest.

 

[BeachBum]

This is exactly how I saw it. No rider was stupid or smarter, they just played their cards the best they could, but somebody had to win. Great post!

Uh, no. Canc had more cards to play, but didn't. True, the only personal card he could play was his patented "TT attack", but he didnt play any team cards before he attacked. At the Strade he had Bennati up front to tire everybody out. At M-SR the Shack had Popo in the front group, why didn't they send him on an attack up the Cipressa? Even if Popo gets caught, people like Gerrans would've been burning matches and thus it wouldn've improved Canc's chances when he decided to go.

 

[El Pistolero]

And it was his choice to join a crappy team like Leopard in the first place.

 

[Swede1]

Uh, no. Canc had more cards to play, but didn't. True, the only personal card he could play was his patented "TT attack", but he didnt play any team cards before he attacked. At the Strade he had Bennati up front to tire everybody out. At M-SR the Shack had Popo in the front group, why didn't they send him on an attack up the Cipressa? Even if Popo gets caught, people like Gerrans would've been burning matches and thus it wouldn've improved Canc's chances when he decided to go.

Gerrans wouldnt have chased Popo up the Cipressa. Liquigas tried that tactic with Agnoli and Gerrans didnt chase him. He knows that neither of them were team leaders.

 

[mewmewmew13]

"Now either because Gerrans was just being savvy, or he too was not able to maintain the Swiss' impossible rhythm, or, having done his two turns, a combination of both: whatever the case, he hedged his bet well and had just enough gas at the end (but not by much!) to come around the Swiss. Bravo! While even if Cancellara thought he could grind him down, it was a gamble under the dire circumstances he was forced to take. For the Swiss, in any case, had no other choice, and probably knew he was racing for a podium placing (rather than 10th if getting caught from behind), but at the same time in the slightest hope that he may have been able to resist Gerrans in the final sprint. Thus in racing for a podium spot, Cancellara was at once also giving himself the only opportunity for victory. Rather than racing "tactically" correct to position himself best for the sprint by sitting up and forcing the others to move forward, Cancellara choose, quite instinctively, to maintian his relentless pace to prevent the trio from getting caught and losing the podium as well."

Very good post Rhubroma! well said.

 

[thehog]

And it was his choice to join a crappy team like Leopard in the first place.

I think that's the root cause. He made his own bed. After he finishes 4th in Flanders & 6th PR he'll have to tow Shleck around France for 3 weeks. I hope he's getting paid well!

 

[Anonymous]

Uh, no. Canc had more cards to play, but didn't. True, the only personal card he could play was his patented "TT attack", but he didnt play any team cards before he attacked. At the Strade he had Bennati up front to tire everybody out. At M-SR the Shack had Popo in the front group, why didn't they send him on an attack up the Cipressa? Even if Popo gets caught, people like Gerrans would've been burning matches and thus it wouldn've improved Canc's chances when he decided to go.

Perhaps I saw something different than this.

Did you notice, once Cav was dropped the buch rode at a very strong tempo to exclude Cav and Sky from the contest and that tempo never really let up until a few kilometers from the Poggio. Where was Canc supposed to send someone up the road?

The tempo to gap Cav basically set up the race for a bunch sprint. Canc did the only thing he could, same with Nibali. Apparently Gerrans was following orders and had enough to win.

I don't see how sending Popo or Bennati on a flyer when the group is already doing 52 kph does anything to change the finale.

 

[Anonymous]

I think that's the root cause. He made his own bed. After he finishes 4th in Flanders & 6th PR he'll have to tow Shleck around France for 3 weeks. I hope he's getting paid well!

Don't kid yourself. Canc may not have the strongest classics team but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

He will do very well over the next few weeks.

 

[Cancellator]

I think that's the root cause. He made his own bed. After he finishes 4th in Flanders & 6th PR he'll have to tow Shleck around France for 3 weeks. I hope he's getting paid well!

Wrong, wrong, possibly wrong this year and probably right.

 

[mewmewmew13]

I think that's the root cause. He made his own bed. After he finishes 4th in Flanders & 6th PR he'll have to tow Shleck around France for 3 weeks. I hope he's getting paid well!

Except remember that he already made it quite clear that he was riding for himself only this season!

and I really don't think he is that invested in listening to Prince Bruyneel

(although thinking I see sarcasm detector needle up there in your post slightly)

 

[thehog]

Except remember that he already made it quite clear that he was riding for himself only this season!

and I really don't think he is that invested in listening to Prince Bruyneel

(although thinking I see sarcasm detector needle up there in your post slightly)

A guy of his quality, ability and statue should have a team built around him. A Contador Saxo could dedicate the entire season bar the Tour to him. Leopard and its variant RSL is built around the Shlecks and not much else. He rides races on his own. Does mighty well but if he had a couple of guys with enough nous he'd be winning not coming 2nd.