Contador 2010

[Moose McKnuckles]

I have no doubt Lance will be in the mix. I also have no doubt that at this point, the other teams have lost their reticence to attack him, as Contador officially displaced him as the patron of the peloton at the 2009 TdF.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

On Ventoux, it didn't seem Lance wasn't trying to outclimb Frank Schleck, just trying to prevent him from gaining time, and Lance had no trouble holding him back. I'm not sure a defensive climb is really the best barometer in this regard. If Lance was really on the offensive at this point, I'd bet he could climb with AC and AS.

 

[kurtinsc]

Shush, the 2 second gap on Ventoux is clearly what counts.

Or the 39 seconds he put on Wiggins in la Grand-Bornand.

Or the 5+ minutes he put on Sastre in that stage.

Or the 27 minutes he pon on Evans.

Those guys left Lance on Verbier... to the tune of 33 seconds. On Le Grand-Bornand, Frank was well superior to Lance, but he was even with Nibali and well ahead of the others who took 33 seconds on him in Verbier.

By Ventoux he was climbing even with Frank (again... it looked like he was strong enough to get more had he attacked... but it may just have been a good poker face). Guys like Sastre and Evans might have given up... but they were nowhere near the pace.


Lance wasn't up to par on Verbier... but if that was his bad day then it wasn't all that bad. He seemed to get better in the last week of the race... or he stayed the same and others fell off. Saying guys like Evans and Sastre are superior at this point seems odd considering they gained 30 seconds on one stage, and then Lance put multiple minutes into them in other mountain stages further down the road.

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

On Ventoux, it didn't seem Lance wasn't trying to outclimb Frank Schleck, just trying to prevent him from gaining time, and Lance had no trouble holding him back. I'm not sure a defensive climb is really the best barometer in this regard. If Lance was really on the offensive at this point, I'd bet he could climb with AC and AS.

Yeah, you're right. An offensive climb like Verbier would be a better barometer.

How did Lance do on that one? He climbed with AC and AS, right?

 

[kurtinsc]

On Ventoux, it didn't seem Lance wasn't trying to outclimb Frank Schleck, just trying to prevent him from gaining time, and Lance had no trouble holding him back. I'm not sure a defensive climb is really the best barometer in this regard. If Lance was really on the offensive at this point, I'd bet he could climb with AC and AS.

I wouldn't go that far. But I think he MIGHT have been able to get 20-30 seconds on Frank and lengthen the gap to others like Wiggins or Nibali. But just because you can hang easily doesn't mean you'd be able to attack and get time. At this point we'll never know.

 

[Rex Hunter]

Yep, I guess it was an illusion when Evans, Sastre, and Frank left Armstrong in their wake on Verbier.

Levi wasn't even there at that point. Did you watch the Tour at all?

You bring up Sastre and Evans, of all people?

Sastre finished 17th overall in the Tour.

Cadel Evans came 30th.

They were out of contention so were saving themselves for certain stages to try to get a stage win.

You are obviously new to cycling.

 

[Cerberus]

On Ventoux, it didn't seem Lance wasn't trying to outclimb Frank Schleck, just trying to prevent him from gaining time, and Lance had no trouble holding him back. I'm not sure a defensive climb is really the best barometer in this regard. If Lance was really on the offensive at this point, I'd bet he could climb with AC and AS.

I'd bet he couldn't, and unlike you I could support my bet with the final result of that stage, and every other serious mountain stage.

 

[kurtinsc]

I have no doubt Lance will be in the mix. I also have no doubt that at this point, the other teams have lost their reticence to attack him, as Contador officially displaced him as the patron of the peloton at the 2009 TdF.

I don't think teams will bother much to attack Lance. He's not the target of the race. More then likely, once the first decisive mountain stage is done, it will be clear it will be the Condador vs Schleck show.

Lance will use his team and ride to hang on as long as possible to the top riders until they go, then try to drop the better TT guys like wiggins or evans through using Leipheimer and Kloden to set a pace at the front. From the last tour, it did seem that while he can't respond to the top rider attacks, he can ride defensively very well still.

All the other contenders this past year showed vulnerability to that strategy (aside from Andy and Alberto). It could easily result in another 3rd.

 

[screaming fist]

You bring up Sastre and Evans, of all people?

Sastre finished 17th overall in the Tour.

Cadel Evans came 30th.

They were out of contention so were saving themselves for certain stages to try to get a stage win.

You are obviously new to cycling.

Carlos Sastre was within 3 minutes of the top spot in the GC going into the Verbier stage. So at this point he still was considered a contender

 

[Moose McKnuckles]

You bring up Sastre and Evans, of all people?

Sastre finished 17th overall in the Tour.

Cadel Evans came 30th.

They were out of contention so were saving themselves for certain stages to try to get a stage win.

You are obviously new to cycling.

They were saving themselves for a stage win by riding in the same groupetto as Contador? Give it a rest. They dropped Lance on that stage. Lance would have followed them if he could. Instead, he held up poor Kloden to work for him. After chasing down their own teammate.

 

[kurtinsc]

They were saving themselves for a stage win by riding in the same groupetto as Contador? Give it a rest. They dropped Lance on that stage. Lance would have followed them if he could. Instead, he held up poor Kloden to work for him. After chasing down their own teammate.

Yes they did. And 2 stages later, Lance dropped them on a mountain... to the tune of 5+ minutes for Sastre and 25+ minutes for Evans.

Lance was obviously at his limit in the Verbier climb... probably because he attempted to go with Contador and failed... blowing a lot of his energy. Several others who went at their own pace rather then trying to stick with the "big boys" fell off... then passed Lance later on the climb. At that point, Lance (foolishly) believed he could still win.

He stopped trying to do that in later stages... he started racing for 3rd (like everyone other then Andy and Alberto started to do).

And once he started doing that, he started putting time into several of the guys who finished ahead of him on Verbier in other mountains.

 

[Rex Hunter]

They were saving themselves for a stage win by riding in the same groupetto as Contador? Give it a rest. They dropped Lance on that stage. Lance would have followed them if he could. Instead, he held up poor Kloden to work for him. After chasing down their own teammate.

Yes, but they hadn't been out for four years. By the end of the tour, when Armstrong was getting back into the old routine, he left the likes of Sastre for dead, out climbed Wiggins and Kloden.

Why do you people always think the Verbier was only stage of the tour? It's a three week tour, not two weeks.

 

[Anonymous]

I've got a spreadsheet I use as a calendar. Yesterday I put Alberto's race schedule in it, and was impressed with this stretch, which I posted to the Paris-Roubaix thread.

eight days of Paris-Nice
a week of training
seven days at Volta Ciclista a Catalunya
another week of training
six days at Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco

gives him 21 quality days of stage racing out of 35, with a chance at victory in three UCI events, with four of the weeks at home in Spain. It's pretty tough to improve on that if he wants to win the Tour de France. Plus, it's twenty-one days of racing and living with with his new teammates.

Then he skips racing for eight weeks while he recovers, trains, does recon rides for the Tour, etc.

I saw an article about the Schleck brothers race schedule at VeloNews - sorry, their website is going through changes and it's hit or miss whether the link works.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2009/12/news/schleck-brothers-plan-a-new-approach_101819

Anyway, I plotted Andy's schedule on my calendar for comparison, and it was all over the place. He's doing stage races over a similar span of time, but he also does eight one-day events, some of which he hopes to win. While Alberto takes off after he and both Schlecks do Pais Vasco, they continue to do Klasika Primavera the very next day, plus three more classics in the next two weeks, and Andy does the Tour of California.

Frank does the same three races with Alberto as above, but he mixes Milan - Sanremo in between, and does the four classics afterward.

This is a new schedule for them, and it gives me even more confidence in Contador for the Tour. Both Schlecks want to win a couple of classics, so instead of having solid, balanced training days, they'll try to peak on race days, and try to recover and peak again. I'm sure both their palmares will look impressive at the end of the year, and the team will get a lot of exposure. But I think it's too much for them to beat Contador at the Tour de France.

I think it's time for me to bail. After a few weeks, my ignore list is getting kind of big. While I enjoy the sharing of information and discussions, watching the personal attacks, name calling, seeing the word "troll", all of the useless threads burying the ones with some meat to them; it's not something I need to see next year. It's like when I'm watching a movie or game at justintv, and make the mistake of looking at the chat. Multiple user names, and people comparing comments to try to prove they are one person? I can watch Fringe, The Mentalist or NCIS for a better version. Happy holidays to anyone that happens across this. 2010 will be a great year for pro cycling. Remember to enjoy the positive aspects on race day. Cheers. John

 

[Publicus]

I think it is a little misleading to look at time gaps on non MTF's since most won't kill themselves knowing that there is sufficient descending to help dropped riders get back on. Second, i think Verbier sorted out, definitively who was the best riders. On Stage 16, Lance was dropped during a series of attacks. Once Wiggans and Andy realized they couldn't drop AC (and let's face it that's what they were trying to do), they shut it
down. Lance was able to bridge back just before the crested the summit.

All this is not to say that Lance won't outclimb everyone in 2010, but to provide some context that I think is lacking in the analysis regarding time gaps that Kurtinsc posted.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I'd bet he couldn't, and unlike you I could support my bet with the final result of that stage, and every other serious mountain stage.

Yeah Lance finished two seconds behind AC and he wasn't attacking. That's your support from the Ventoux stage? Two whole seconds. Perceive it any way you like, but Lance deferred to AC in the mountains. He didn't try to attack or chase him. He didn't go out of his way to help him up the mountains either; perhaps that's why people assume he was a bad teammate. I'm not saying AC wasn't the stronger of the two, but on Ventoux, Lance still had something left in the tank.

 

[kurtinsc]

I think it is a little misleading to look at time gaps on non MTF's since most won't kill themselves knowing that there is sufficient descending to help dropped riders get back on. Second, i think Verbier sorted out, definitively who was the best riders. On Stage 16, Lance was dropped during a series of attacks. Once Wiggans and Andy realized they couldn't drop AC (and let's face it that's what they were trying to do), they shut it
down. Lance was able to bridge back just before the crested the summit.

All this is not to say that Lance won't outclimb everyone in 2010, but to provide some context that I think is lacking in the analysis regarding time gaps that Kurtinsc posted.

I agree with you about non-MTF finishes... in cases where there was not a gap.

But when there are gaps on a non-mtf finish... if anything that indicates even more of a superior ride then the time would indcate. La Grande-Bornand had 15 km of descent before the finish.

Frank, Andy and Contador were clearly better then everyone else that day... but Lance and Nibali were pretty clearly superior. Lance had actually gapped Nibali on the climb but was caught on the descent.

As for stage 16... Lance was dropped on the ascent. The "contador" group initially was Contador, Kloden, the Schlecks, Nibali and Wiggins.

Schleck was dropped from the lead group, and Armstrong bridged from behind. Before the attacks from the front had stopped he was about to finish bridging... then they did stop and he and Frank regained the lead group. Armstrong gained the front group as Wiggins was mounting an attack (at time 16:42).

Then they quit attacking... because Andy had lost Frank (his only support rider) and Astana had 3 guys in the front group.

Perhaps they did let off at the front... but not enough that Frank Schleck didn't fall of the pace and have to use Lance's wheel to get back to the lead group.

If you go into detail, on Ventoux as well you'll notice that while Lance didn't go with Andy's repeated attacks where Frank stayed behind, twice Andy attacked and Frank followed... and Lance went with those pretty easily.

Lance was very strong from stage 16 on. Perhaps it was because he stopped racing Contador and Andy after stage 15, and started racing everyone else (those who were not well above his level like Andy and Contador were).

 

[kurtinsc]

Yeah Lance finished two seconds behind AC and he wasn't attacking. That's your support from the Ventoux stage? Two whole seconds. Perceive it any way you like, but Lance deferred to AC in the mountains. He didn't try to attack or chase him. He didn't go out of his way to help him up the mountains either; perhaps that's why people assume he was a bad teammate. I'm not saying AC wasn't the stronger of the two, but on Ventoux, Lance still had something left in the tank.

Just an addendum. He DID chase on Verbier (and used Kloden to chase).

After that... he gave up on the win and started riding for 3rd. He stopped chasing both Andy and Contador at that point, focusing instead on mainly Wiggins and Nibali (and after the TT when Frank didn't lose as much as Armstrong expected) Frank Schleck.

 

[Publicus]

Yeah Lance finished two seconds behind AC and he wasn't attacking. That's your support from the Ventoux stage? Two whole seconds. Perceive it any way you like, but Lance deferred to AC in the mountains. He didn't try to attack or chase him. He didn't go out of his way to help him up the mountains either; perhaps that's why people assume he was a bad teammate. I'm not saying AC wasn't the stronger of the two, but on Ventoux, Lance still had something left in the tank.

Ventoux is just not a good example of where these guys stood in terms of strength/climbing talent throughout the 2009 TdF--it was stage 20 of 21 stage race for crying out loud. Lance did not in any, way, shape or form defer to AC. He did chase him (Verbier and Col de Rom/Colombiere), but let's not let those facts get in the way of proving your point. I don't think that means a whole lot, or demonstrates he's a bad teammate, but he wasn't deferring to him and he certainly never worked for him.

On the decisive stage of the race (Verbier) he wasn't there. Pointing to Ventoux after Frank and others have spent the better part of 2 mountain stages trying to dislodge/break AC is not really a good indicator of where Armstrong is climbing relation to the other members of the peloton. We can speculate until the cows come home (and frankly I hear he cowbells relatively close by), but we won't have that answer until sometime in 2010 when Lance is in a stage race with mountains that he's actually contesting--which will be sometime in July.

 

[kurtinsc]

Ventoux is just not a good example of where these guys stood in terms of strength/climbing talent throughout the 2009 TdF--it was stage 20 of 21 stage race for crying out loud. Lance did not in any, way, shape or form defer to AC. He did chase him (Verbier and Col de Rom/Colombiere), but let's not let those facts get in the way of proving your point. I don't think that means a whole lot, or demonstrates he's a bad teammate, but he wasn't deferring to him and he certainly never worked for him.

On the decisive stage of the race (Verbier) he wasn't there. Pointing to Ventoux after Frank and others have spent the better part of 2 mountain stages trying to dislodge/break AC is not really a good indicator of where Armstrong is climbing relation to the other members of the peloton. We can speculate until the cows come home (and frankly I hear he cowbells relatively close by), but we won't have that answer until sometime in 2010 when Lance is in a stage race with mountains that he's actually contesting--which will be sometime in July.

Not disagreeing... but wouldn't Grand Bornand be more of a decisive stage then Verbier?

Verbier, despite being an uphill finish, was relatively small time gaps after Contador (and to a lesser degree, Andy). The third place finisher (Nibali) Was only a minute ahead of the 11th place finisher (Nibali). First place was less then 3 minutes up on 24th place.

It was the first real sorting of favorites... but it wasn't the most decisive.

Grand Bornand? A downhill finish... yet 1st was over 7 minutes up on 24th. Only 5 riders finished within 3 minutes of the man to cross the line first... as opposed to 23 on Verbier.

That was the ride that made Frank seem like a podium favorite. Before that he'd been riding with several guys who were better TT riders.

 

[Publicus]

Not disagreeing... but wouldn't Grand Bornand be more of a decisive stage then Verbier?

Verbier, despite being an uphill finish, was relatively small time gaps after Contador (and to a lesser degree, Andy). The third place finisher (Nibali) Was only a minute ahead of the 11th place finisher (Nibali). First place was less then 3 minutes up on 24th place.

It was the first real sorting of favorites... but it wasn't the most decisive.

Grand Bornand? A downhill finish... yet 1st was over 7 minutes up on 24th. Only 5 riders finished within 3 minutes of the man to cross the line first... as opposed to 23 on Verbier.

That was the ride that made Frank seem like a podium favorite. Before that he'd been riding with several guys who were better TT riders.

I consider Verbier decisive because it was the first real sorting out of the GC contenders, and Armstrong had just as much of a shot to take yellow as AC (I believe they were only separate by 2 seconds). After that, Lance was, by the unwritten rules of cycling, pretty much SOL and racing for a podium spot. It also meant that for the next two stages Saxo Bank concentrated its fire on AC. So they spent the better part of Stage 17 trying to dislodge/crack AC and in the process, built up a pretty solid lead over the others. I think a lot of the other contenders shut it down, with the hopes of regaining the lost time at the ITT the next day.

So while the time gaps on Stage 17 were greater, I think the psychological impact of Verbier was simply greater (Lance put a lot of weight on that stage if I recall correctly).

 

[Publicus]

I agree with you about non-MTF finishes... in cases where there was not a gap.

But when there are gaps on a non-mtf finish... if anything that indicates even more of a superior ride then the time would indcate. La Grande-Bornand had 15 km of descent before the finish.

Frank, Andy and Contador were clearly better then everyone else that day... but Lance and Nibali were pretty clearly superior. Lance had actually gapped Nibali on the climb but was caught on the descent.

As for stage 16... Lance was dropped on the ascent. The "contador" group initially was Contador, Kloden, the Schlecks, Nibali and Wiggins.

Schleck was dropped from the lead group, and Armstrong bridged from behind. Before the attacks from the front had stopped he was about to finish bridging... then they did stop and he and Frank regained the lead group. Armstrong gained the front group as Wiggins was mounting an attack (at time 16:42).

Then they quit attacking... because Andy had lost Frank (his only support rider) and Astana had 3 guys in the front group.

Perhaps they did let off at the front... but not enough that Frank Schleck didn't fall of the pace and have to use Lance's wheel to get back to the lead group.

If you go into detail, on Ventoux as well you'll notice that while Lance didn't go with Andy's repeated attacks where Frank stayed behind, twice Andy attacked and Frank followed... and Lance went with those pretty easily.

Lance was very strong from stage 16 on. Perhaps it was because he stopped racing Contador and Andy after stage 15, and started racing everyone else (those who were not well above his level like Andy and Contador were).

I think that's right--my memory on Stage 16 is a bit spotty as to the timing of Armstrong's bridging efforts and when Garmin shut off the attack.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

I'm not sure what Lance did on Verbier was really chasing. I've heard differeing interpretations of what happened: some say he chased, while others say he was helping to set a pace allowing AC to gap the field and other GC contenders. I don't think either happened, certainly not the latter. Arcalis (whether I like the move or not) proved AC was stronger in the mountains, and, especially in the alps, it seemed Lance was just riding, not chasing anyone or attacking, just holding serve, so to speak. Maybe "defer" was the wrong word, but I don't think Lance chased AC at all.

Like Publicus said, we won't know for sure until next July when he is actually contesting a race. From Arcalis to the Champs Elysees, Lance wasn't contesting.

 

[Publicus]

I'm not sure what Lance did on Verbier was really chasing. I've heard differeing interpretations of what happened: some say he chased, while others say he was helping to set a pace allowing AC to gap the field and other GC contenders. I don't think either happened, certainly not the latter. Arcalis (whether I like the move or not) proved AC was stronger in the mountains, and, especially in the alps, it seemed Lance was just riding, not chasing anyone or attacking, just holding serve, so to speak. Maybe "defer" was the wrong word, but I don't think Lance chased AC at all.

Like Publicus said, we won't know for sure until next July when he is actually contesting a race. From Arcalis to the Champs Elysees, Lance wasn't contesting.

That's really not true. He was contesting at Verbier--he was in the group with the Schecks, Wiggins and AC before AC took off. And he was not setting pace allowing AC to gap the field--he was trying to limit his losses (at least IMO). But that's irrelevant now.

We get to see these two race in one of the early spring races (cataluyna, I believe). Which hopefully means that Versus covers it.

 

[ImmaculateKadence]

That's really not true. He was contesting at Verbier--he was in the group with the Schecks, Wiggins and AC before AC took off. And he was not setting pace allowing AC to gap the field--he was trying to limit his losses (at least IMO). But that's irrelevant now.

We get to see these two race in one of the early spring races (cataluyna, I believe). Which hopefully means that Versus covers it.

I can agree with that.

...I think the cows just arrived

 

[UpTheRoad]

I'm not sure what Lance did on Verbier was really chasing. I've heard differeing interpretations of what happened: some say he chased, while others say he was helping to set a pace allowing AC to gap the field and other GC contenders. I don't think either happened, certainly not the latter. Arcalis (whether I like the move or not) proved AC was stronger in the mountains, and, especially in the alps, it seemed Lance was just riding, not chasing anyone or attacking, just holding serve, so to speak. Maybe "defer" was the wrong word, but I don't think Lance chased AC at all.

Like Publicus said, we won't know for sure until next July when he is actually contesting a race. From Arcalis to the Champs Elysees, Lance wasn't contesting.

Kloden and Armstrong were chasing. If you don't consider it as such then they were riding hard tempo at the head of the chasing pack. They should not have been there.

If they were riding for AC, they would have been at the back covering attacks and sitting wheels making others drive the chase. I think they really missed Levi there, as he would have immediately sat on any wheel he could find. He could've told Lance that he has a "lot to learn" about wheelsucking.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v8-TnUjrzV4

Kloden and Armstrong were at the front of the chasing pack the whole time!

Contrast this with the year before on Alpe d'Huez. The Schlecks were riding full out in support of Sastre who was up the road.