Contador about to leave the tour?

[craig1985]

TBH I'm surprised Contador would even say that he has knee issues, as it will mean Leopard will now test him out. It's like Robbie McEwen riding the '04 Tour with a cracked vertebrae (IIRC) and now telling anybody because he didn't want his rivals for the green jersey to make life hard for him.

 

[Publicus]

In a few years' time everyone will have forgotten how the race was won, and just remember who won it.

Doubt it. Especially if it is Cuddles or Andy's first win. Sort of like Contador's first win in 2007. I know I haven't forgotten how he won it.

 

[dlwssonic]

I actually think this tour has been quite exciting, the first week was really good. Of cause other than the terrible crashes that took out loads of very strong men. I have a feeling the mountains will be exciting too with the schlecks against evans, basso, sanchez and contador???
although the schlecks may be strong there will still be a exciting battle.

 

[Moondance]

2008 was an exciting tour compared to many recent editions. Wasn't so one sided and predictable. I Don't see your problem...

My memory might be failing me in that case, but I recall the mountain stages being dull as dishwater, and the exclusion of the previous year's 1 and 3 didn't help. Also the in race removing of Saunier was pretty tragic. and weighs pretty heavy.

 

[Cimber]

I actually think this tour has been quite exciting, the first week was really good. Of cause other than the terrible crashes that took out loads of very strong men. I have a feeling the mountains will be exciting too with the schlecks against evans, basso, sanchez and contador???
although the schlecks may be strong there will still be a exciting battle.

Yes it has been very exciting but for all the wrong reasons. And the impact of the excitements of the first week is killing the excitement for the following weeks (imho)

 

[Publicus]

Even if the favourites crashed out, I don't see how it would make that mch of a difference. Contador's participation in the tour before the delay of the hearing was in doubt and he wasn't going to be participation. Some of the others lost time because of bad luck but many riders were saying that many riders are taking stupid risks and others have been badly postioned. I think Andy would like revenge for the Chain incident last year but he would still take it with open arms. If AC hadn't of crashed and Andy still thinks he would of beaten him. I don't think it changes things too much.

Sorry for my ramblings...

You can certainly take the position that it doesn't change much, but I don't think you have much to stand on. Andy was always in a no-win situation. If he beats Contador this year, it's not because he was better, but because Contador already won a GT this year. If he loses to Contador, well, it just underscores his weakness. That was BEFORE the bullsh*t crash on Stage 1 and the spate of crashes. Now he's got a possibly Giro-depleted Contador who has a serious knee injury. Now he has a much worse lose-lose situation IMO.

As for Cuddles, this is obviously less of an issue for him since he had two rather crappy TdFs the last couple of years. So maybe I overstated the initial case for him.

 

[BM1979]

Doubt it. Especially if it is Cuddles or Andy's first win. Sort of like Contador's first win in 2007. I know I haven't forgotten how he won it.

Personally though I really dont think any of the riders will care what we think.

 

[JPM London]

Disagree. If you want to be picky you could say that or something similar about most Tours.

2006 - Ulrich, Basso etc booted out on eve of race
2007 - Vino and Kloden (the two betting favourites) both crash out. Rasmussen forced out when leading.
2008 - Contador and Leipheimer not allowed to compete
2009 - OK, this one was pretty comprehensive.
2010 - Andy loses 39s to a mechanical and loses by 39s.

When it comes to the Tour I don't think there are any "default" wins. Well, except maybe Pereiro.

And in the Armstrong years you had Beloki etc crashing left and right... You're absolutely right.

 

[Cimber]

Personally though I really dont think any of the riders will care what we think.

if you by "we" refer to the general population of cycling fans I think you are wrong.

 

[BM1979]

You can certainly take the position that it doesn't change much, but I don't think you have much to stand on. Andy was always in a no-win situation. If he beats Contador this year, it's not because he was better, but because Contador already won a GT this year. If he loses to Contador, well, it just underscores his weakness. That was BEFORE the bullsh*t crash on Stage 1 and the spate of crashes. Now he's got a possibly Giro-depleted Contador who has a serious knee injury. Now he has a much worse lose-lose situation IMO.

As for Cuddles, this is obviously less of an issue for him since he had two rather crappy TdFs the last couple of years. So maybe I overstated the initial case for him.

Should we say the same thing about last years tour , If Andy had Frank there do you think it might have made a difference

 

[The Hitch]

2009 - OK, this one was pretty comprehensive.
2010 - Andy loses 39s to a mechanical and loses by 39s.

Contador loses 1 minute 30 in Frank Schleck crash. Menchov and Samuel Sanchez lose even more time, effectively eliminating them from contention.

Fixed it for you.

 

[Cimber]

Disagree. If you want to be picky you could say that or something similar about most Tours.

2006 - Ulrich, Basso etc booted out on eve of race
2007 - Vino and Kloden (the two betting favourites) both crash out. Rasmussen forced out when leading.
2008 - Contador and Leipheimer not allowed to compete
2009 - OK, this one was pretty comprehensive.
2010 - Andy loses 39s to a mechanical and loses by 39s.

When it comes to the Tour I don't think there are any "default" wins. Well, except maybe Pereiro.

Yes abosolutely. That will alwyas happen regularly that a few riders are out, but this year is extreme. This year the list is so long: Wiggins (out), Brajkovic (out), Horner (out), Levi (injured+tim eloss), Vino (out), Gesink (injured+time loss), VdB (out), Contador (injured and time loss), Klödi (injured), SS (time loss)

 

[The Barb]

Fixed it for you.

True dat. Totally fair point.

 

[Cimber]

Should we say the same thing about last years tour , If Andy had Frank there do you think it might have made a difference

Definately woudl have made a difference since Andy would have had to w8 for Frankie thereby losing more time to Contador

 

[Moondance]

Fixed it for you.

Menchov finished ahead of Contador....

 

[AussieGoddess]

You can certainly take the position that it doesn't change much, but I don't think you have much to stand on. Andy was always in a no-win situation. If he beats Contador this year, it's not because he was better, but because Contador already won a GT this year. If he loses to Contador, well, it just underscores his weakness. That was BEFORE the bullsh*t crash on Stage 1 and the spate of crashes. Now he's got a possibly Giro-depleted Contador who has a serious knee injury. Now he has a much worse lose-lose situation IMO.

As for Cuddles, this is obviously less of an issue for him since he had two rather crappy TdFs the last couple of years. So maybe I overstated the initial case for him.

yep this (10 characters)

 

[hrotha]

And in the Armstrong years you had Beloki etc crashing left and right... You're absolutely right.

Beloki only crashed once. Granted, it was a pretty spectacular one, but still, only one.

 

[simoni]

Disagree. If you want to be picky you could say that or something similar about most Tours.

2006 - Ulrich, Basso etc booted out on eve of race
2007 - Vino and Kloden (the two betting favourites) both crash out. Rasmussen forced out when leading.
2008 - Contador and Leipheimer not allowed to compete
2009 - OK, this one was pretty comprehensive.
2010 - Andy loses 39s to a mechanical and loses by 39s.

When it comes to the Tour I don't think there are any "default" wins. Well, except maybe Pereiro.

By and large the Tour is one of very few races where there normally isn't any (sporting) doubt about the winner (along with perhaps Flanders and Roubaix). In everything else there's always an element of doubt because someone is targetting something else and isn't riding (Giro, Veulta), not in form yet (tour riders in Ardennes) etc.

Crashes/mechanicals/racing incidents are one of those things but I'd say that the 2006, 2007 and 2008 tours have a bit of a question mark hanging over them in terms of "was anyone missing". Not that is matters much...

Anyway, my theory is that Contador and Riis are playing the Schlecks and the rest of us and he's actually in very good form. Has anyone taken all Bertie's grimacing seriously?!

He'll either win easily or not finish. No half measures here.

 

[auscyclefan94]

Go back to 1999, everyone didn't rate Armstrong's win due to zulle's crash on the passge du Gois plus the past two winners missing being Ullrich and pantani. That tour win was still valued. Saying because Contador is out means that the vcitory isn't valued is a moronic argument.

 

[Midnightfright]

By and large the Tour is one of very few races where there normally isn't any (sporting) doubt about the winner (along with perhaps Flanders and Roubaix). In everything else there's always an element of doubt because someone is targetting something else and isn't riding (Giro, Veulta), not in form yet (tour riders in Ardennes) etc.

Crashes/mechanicals/racing incidents are one of those things but I'd say that the 2006, 2007 and 2008 tours have a bit of a question mark hanging over them in terms of "was anyone missing". Not that is matters much...

Anyway, my theory is that Contador and Riis are playing the Schlecks and the rest of us and he's actually in very good form. Has anyone taken all Bertie's grimacing seriously?!

He'll either win easily or not finish. No half measures here.

Well he certainly didn't win easily last year so even if he isnt injured he definitely did ride a very difficult Giro. Also excatly what benefit would he of got from "playing" the Schlecks?

 

[dlwssonic]

By and large the Tour is one of very few races where there normally isn't any (sporting) doubt about the winner (along with perhaps Flanders and Roubaix). In everything else there's always an element of doubt because someone is targetting something else and isn't riding (Giro, Veulta), not in form yet (tour riders in Ardennes) etc.

Crashes/mechanicals/racing incidents are one of those things but I'd say that the 2006, 2007 and 2008 tours have a bit of a question mark hanging over them in terms of "was anyone missing". Not that is matters much...

Anyway, my theory is that Contador and Riis are playing the Schlecks and the rest of us and he's actually in very good form. Has anyone taken all Bertie's grimacing seriously?!

He'll either win easily or not finish. No half measures here.

please not everything contador says bad about himself is lies or mindgames. he is human afterall. He certainly doesnt have great form due to fatigue and injury. Grimacing to bluff the other competitors is just pure lame.

 

[Archibald]

Even if the favourites crashed out, I don't see how it would make that mch of a difference. Contador's participation in the tour before the delay of the hearing was in doubt and he wasn't going to be participation. Some of the others lost time because of bad luck but many riders were saying that many riders are taking stupid risks and others have been badly postioned. I think Andy would like revenge for the Chain incident last year but he would still take it with open arms. If AC hadn't of crashed and Andy still thinks he would of beaten him. I don't think it changes things too much.

Sorry for my ramblings...

not ramblings - i tend to agree with this. You can only beat the competition that's there, and accidents/dnf's are a part of racing.

Cuddles been saying for years that he just needs that 'bit of luck'. Armstrong always mentions that he's never crashed etc... and always seemed to have his luck (not 2010 mind)... You can manufacture your own 'luck' by positioning, but when your number's up, it's up.
although, at the moment, this edition is most likely to be a last man standing type gig. Who knows, we could still see the schlecks have a prang somewhere and lose time to Contador - they got lucky with Riis using the malliot juane to their advantage last year, but you never know what's around the corner.

 

[Cimber]

Go back to 1999, everyone didn't rate Armstrong's win due to zulle's crash on the passge du Gois plus the past two winners missing being Ullrich and pantani. That tour win was still valued. Saying because Contador is out means that the vcitory isn't valued is a moronic argument.

Well the 1999 was valued cos Lance kept winning 6 more in a row. If Andy wins this one and then Bertie comes back next year and beat the crap out of him then Andy's win was the one year Contador was hurt /did the giro. But if Andy wins this year and also beats an inform Bertie next year then it will be valued just as Lance's 1999 win.

But I agree that in time people tend to forget the story behind the win, but I still remember how Contador won in 2007.

 

[just some guy]

Anyway, my theory is that Contador and Riis are playing the Schlecks and the rest of us and he's actually in very good form.

This has crossed my mind as well -

 

[dlwssonic]

Well he certainly didn't win easily last year so even if he isnt injured he definitely did ride a very difficult Giro. Also excatly what benefit would he of got from "playing" the Schlecks?

Exactly. Why would he lie about him being in trouble it will only result in schlecks attacking early to test him and gain time on him.