Contador acquitted

[Publicus]

True.

But while analyzing the numbers of picograms and the type of beef he may or may not have eaten is not my strongest point, I do have the intuition that if we take the transfusion hypothesis as a starting point, the data on/regarding AC's positive CLEN-test can and will somehow turn out to match and corroborate this hypothesis.

Not sure if this is a scientifically justified way of arguing.
But perhaps it's like saying: hey, the earth is round and spinning, we know that much, so let's take that as a working hypothesis. Now, let's look around us, and try interpreting the things we see with that working hypothesis as a basis.
Like Newton sitting under that apple tree: things will suddenly become much clearer, if you have a decent working hypothesis.

You can prove the earth is both round and spinning through mathematical equations and visual observation. As far as I can tell no one has (or can) corroborated the transfusion hypothesis. It certainly is one of multiple hypothesis, but it's not on the same level as something like the earth is round and spinning.

 

[sniper]

You can prove the earth is both round and spinning through mathematical equations and visual observation. As far as I can tell no one has (or can) corroborated the transfusion hypothesis. It certainly is one of multiple hypothesis, but it's not on the same level as something like the earth is round and spinning.

In my book, there is no way AC didn't blooddope on that rest-day.
As sure as the sun going down.

 

[biking_lawyer]

This is the kind of attitude that has lead to this controversy in the first place. The rule is very simple. Riders are responsible for what they put in their body. Contador tested positive for a banned substance. Guilty. End of story.
. . . .
If you have a problem with the rules then argue to change the rule. But that has to be done first, before you acquit someone who failed the test. You can't have the chicken before the egg.

Long time lurker here...first post.

Perhaps I read the news release incorrectly, but it appears that Contador is not to be "acquitted" of anything. According to the news article, Contador is trying to get WADA to use a little known provision that allows the normal punishment for doping to be commuted if he can establish he did not intentionally or negligently ingest the offending substance. (Think justifiable homicide---bad example...but the best I could think of right now)

While it appears that provision is seldom used, it is still on the books; thus, utilizing it to avoid suspending Contador would not be "changing the rules" or "ignoring the rules" as some here seen to suggest.

But, I am new here and still learning the in's and outs of the whole doping disciplinary process, so I may be wrong.....

[edit: not that I buy Contador's defense. I am just saying if you believe his defense, there seems to be a loophole to avoid the normal punishment]

 

[StyrbjornSterki]

This whole thing is due to WADA's incompetence. Having no minimum threshold on a substance with known food contamination issues is stupid. It ensares the innocent who travel to places like Mexico, and it allows the guilty in countries without contamination problems to claim that they too are victims. The Cologne lab warned that the ever more sensitive limits of detection could causes problems. WADA did nothing. Now the anti-doping framework looks foolish and unfair.

This is the kind of attitude that has lead to this controversy in the first place. The rule is very simple. Riders are responsible for what they put in their body....

What you suggest is impossible unless you live like the boy in the plastic bubble and have every drop and every morsel of everything you ever ingest laboratory tested before you consume it.

I can't figure how you'd ride a bicycle in that get-up.

 

[python]

In my book, there is no way AC didn't blooddope on that rest-day.
As sure as the sun going down.

i know we had a misunderstanding earlier, but this is a clear indication you're back to the belief vs fact-based conclusions...though you might very well be right.

not my way of approaching problems.

 

[Hugh Januss]

too many places to enumerate...

first, you don't want to take the tone of having brains vs having no brains if it does not agree wit your opinion (fact-less as we've learned) though a legitimate right you are free to express;fact-less as we've learned
second, contador's case, if you bothered to read (or understand) some substantive posts, involves a substance that is technically illegal but can be introduced to animals up to a certain level the european union regulates.

third, you completely missed technical and political iterations around his blood passport values.

there is more, but i'm too tired to repeat things i have said numerous times alraedy.

Well that is apparently what you say, but since you are too tired to point out my errors of judgement maybe you shouldn't slam me so hard. I may have missed where the use of clen is permitted in any but sick animals, if that is what you are trying to say.
What I was trying to suggest with my post was that while most of us do think that Contador was doping w/ blood transfusions and with clen at an earlier point in the season, still there are enough loopholes in the case all the way around that we can go on arguing it one way or another until the cows come home.
Sorry my brief synopsis of the case didn't rise to your level of expertise.

 

[Publicus]

In my book, there is no way AC didn't blooddope on that rest-day.
As sure as the sun going down.

Fair enough and I don't disagree. But if you can't prove it, then that and a $1.50 will get you a small cup of coffee in most US. cities.

But, I am curious about something. If AC was cutting weight using Clen during the Dauphine (that is the working theory correct?), in what amounts was he using? And does clen continue to deteriorate in the blood even if it is refrigerated at the same rate it does when it is in the body? I actively stay away from the clinic during the run up on this case so that I wouldn't pre-judge the issue, so I'm trying to catch up on this theory (which seems to be the prevailing one).

 

[WillyWoet]

In formal terms there is no mentioning of bloodtransfusion in WADA and UCIs case againts Conta. Thats not the case. Moreover, experts on clenbuterol have reported that for slimming effect it's used in the off-seasong.

 

[offbyone]

Long time lurker here...first post.

Perhaps I read the news release incorrectly, but it appears that Contador is not to be "acquitted" of anything. According to the news article, Contador is trying to get WADA to use a little known provision that allows the normal punishment for doping to be commuted if he can establish he did not intentionally or negligently ingest the offending substance. (Think justifiable homicide---bad example...but the best I could think of right now)

While it appears that provision is seldom used, it is still on the books; thus, utilizing it to avoid suspending Contador would not be "changing the rules" or "ignoring the rules" as some here seen to suggest.

But, I am new here and still learning the in's and outs of the whole doping disciplinary process, so I may be wrong.....

[edit: not that I buy Contador's defense. I am just saying if you believe his defense, there seems to be a loophole to avoid the normal punishment]

I follow, but considering it is the rider's responsibility to regulate what goes in his body then he is at fault. Secondly he never proved it was from the meat, it was just his theory. You can't prove it unless you have the meat or there were extenuating circumstances like other people on the team that ate the meat tested positive.

What you suggest is impossible unless you live like the boy in the plastic bubble and have every drop and every morsel of everything you ever ingest laboratory tested before you consume it.



I can't figure how you'd ride a bicycle in that get-up.

Well if you are basing this off BroDeal's post, he is suggesting that Clen contamination is very common in certain regions like spain and mexico. If it is such common knowledge, then the riders should be avoiding those meats from those places. It is that easy.

Look people can pretend clen contamination levels that shows up on the cologne lab's testing are common, but until that is convincingly proven I don't buy it. The fact that the lab hasn't caught scores of riders by now to such a common issue should be proof enough. A great deal of those guys train in spain, why aren't they nabbed?

 

[python]

Sorry my brief synopsis of the case didn't rise to your level of expertise.

you're bs-ing trolling hugee again.

i'm very sorry to point out facts to your hypocritical face because in just few post earlier you asked a question that was a bait but was in fact designed to look sincere ( 'OK I don't claim to have as much dope knowledge as you. Where did I go off beam?').

you got an answer, as substantive as i could give you provided the time i have, just as you asked..and now you attempt to profess your own ignorance as my problem ?

 

[pedaling squares]

you're bs-ing trolling hugee again.

i'm very sorry to point out facts to your hypocritical face because in just few post earlier you asked a question that was a bait but was in fact designed to look sincere ( 'OK I don't claim to have as much dope knowledge as you. Where did I go off beam?').

you got an answer, as substantive as i could give you provided the time i have, just as you asked..and now you attempt to profess your own ignorance as my problem ?

Jesus python, give this a rest. "Hypocritical"... "your own ignorance"... were you not just a few pages back asking people to critique the post and not the person? Ok, so you have a beef with Hugh. Take it to PM for our sakes please if you don't want to tone it down and address his questions. Sorry to stick my nose in but this back and forth is ruining a decent thread.

 

[BroDeal]

Why always the comparison with the Ovtcharov case?

Fact is that Ovtcharov made a hair test. Something that Dopador could have done if he were clean, but he didn't do. Anybody with a brain - do the math.

A hair test would serve little purpose in Contador's case. Ovtcharov took a hair test so that he could prove that his positive was not the result of a therapeutic does declining over time to the level detected. Contador did not need this because he already had negative tests in the days before his positive. Those negative tests conclusively prove that the tiny amounts of Clen detected in Contador were not the tail end of normal dose. If he proves that he did not take Clen in the last three months, he still could have harvested blood in January.

Well if you are basing this off BroDeal's post, he is suggesting that Clen contamination is very common in certain regions like spain and mexico. If it is such common knowledge, then the riders should be avoiding those meats from those places. It is that easy.

I never mentioned Spain. Read more carefully.

Not only did WADA hear the director of the Cologne lab saying that the super low detection level could result in positives due to contamination. WADA had an actual example when an athlete's lawyer showed that 18% of the beef in Mexico was contaminated. There have been several cases in China where contamination is reasonably suspected. WADA did nothing. They sat around gazing at their navels with their thumbs up their butts waiting for the issue to blow up on them. Now it has.

I do find it funny that some of those who are most outraged about Contador getting off are the same homers who are outraged that Armstrong might not get away with it. Those seven GTs will soon be matched by Contador--maybe this year. Then it is onward and upward.

 

[python]

and address his questions.

squares, i adressed his questions fairly and squarely. i took the time to answer enumerating issues, pointing to unacceptability of judging people as lacking brains, all in return to what looked as a sincere question. what did i get back ? a snide. please read the posts above. it's right there. this is in addition to his ad hominems at me earlier in the thread. i don't think an honest answer deserves all that.

 

[sniper]

A hair test would serve little purpose in Contador's case. Ovtcharov took a hair test so that he could prove that his positive was not the result of a therapeutic does declining over time to the level detected. Contador did not need this because he already had negative tests in the days before his positive. Those negative tests conclusively prove that the tiny amounts of Clen detected in Contador were not the tail end of normal dose. If he proves that he did not take Clen in the last three months, he still could have harvested blood in January.

Not sure. I'm very much inclined to go with LaMargna.
One of the hypotheses out there is that Dopador was on a CLEN-diet after the Dauphiné. A negative hairtest could have disproven this hypothesis, or at least diminish its plausibility.

 

[131313]

Fact is, anyone with a brain knows how it got there. Contador can't prove it was from meat, because it was from blood. Wada can't prove that it was from taking Clen during the time he was tested because he didn't. Unless they can use the plasticizer test result to show how the clen realistically got there, then their case is somewhat weakened. However Contadors case is not that strong either, so around and around we go.

I agree it was probably from blood. Personally, I think it's just as likely that it was unintentionally ingested when the blood was withdrawn, but that's speculation on both of our parts; fact is though, blood tainted with Clen (regardless of how it got there) is the most likely scenario. So I say sanction him for that. Sure, it's a harder case to make, but in a certain sense sanctioning him for the Clen positive is even more a case of "sweeping it under the rug" than not, i.e. "it's too much work to get him for blood doping, so let's just sanction him for this because it's easy". Mission accomplished...

...but not really. Should we then proclaim some other guy the "winner" of the tour, even if that guy has plasticizer results similar to Contador's (if that's the case). Personally, I don't think so.

 

[BroDeal]

Not sure. I'm very much inclined to go with LaMargna.
One of the hypotheses out there is that Dopador was on a CLEN-diet after the Dauphiné. A negative hairtest could have disproven this hypothesis, or at least diminish its plausibility.

And that theory could easily be replaced by Contador using Clen after eating too much paella during the holidays. If he freezes his blood then he could have used Clen months before the Tour.

 

[offbyone]

I never mentioned Spain. Read more carefully.

Not only did WADA hear the director of the Cologne lab saying that the super low detection level could result in positives due to contamination. WADA had an actual example when an athlete's lawyer showed that 18% of the beef in Mexico was contaminated. There have been several cases in China where contamination is reasonably suspected. WADA did nothing. They sat around gazing at their navels with their thumbs up their butts waiting for the issue to blow up on them. Now it has.

Well if there is no problem in spain then that disproves contador's entire meat theory and your point as well. Unless I a missing something, did the meat contador ate come from mexico now?

Look contador isn't the only athlete the cologne lab has tested for. If it is common, we would see frequent positives. And who gives a crap about how much beef is contaminated with clen unless that translates to a positive for someone that eats the meat. There have been studies posted in threads here that show how unlikely that is. This theory of meat driven positives is rubbish until I see some proof. If anything the lack of positives disprove contador's theory or at least puts it on a very thin lie. The theory wouldn't be hard to test in real life. They could just take all the samples from last year's vuelta and rescan them at cologne for clen. Since all those riders were eating spanish meat presumably there should be a string of positives.

I do find it funny that some of those who are most outraged about Contador getting off are the same homers who are outraged that Armstrong might not get away with it. Those seven GTs will soon be matched by Contador--maybe this year. Then it is onward and upward.

Or we could say it seems that you are arguing for contador to get off because you hate lance. Don't be a hypocrite, if you support wada doing a better job then it starts with enforcing the rules w/o exception.

 

[sniper]

And that theory could easily be replaced by Contador using Clen after eating too much paella during the holidays. If he freezes his blood then he could have used Clen months before the Tour.

Given that, in cycling, perception is reality, as we've learned yesterday, a negative hairtest would always have benefitted AC, even if it were only to silence some of the critics and to make the parallel with Ovtcharov stronger.

AC knows the rules of the media. In fact, he's exploiting them maximally by not mentioning bloodtransfusion or plasticizer in his statements, and yet, he didn't come up with a negative hairtest, which would have silenced a lot of people.

 

[scribe]

I agree it was probably from blood. Personally, I think it's just as likely that it was unintentionally ingested when the blood was withdrawn, but that's speculation on both of our parts; fact is though, blood tainted with Clen (regardless of how it got there) is the most likely scenario. So I say sanction him for that. Sure, it's a harder case to make, but in a certain sense sanctioning him for the Clen positive is even more a case of "sweeping it under the rug" than not, i.e. "it's too much work to get him for blood doping, so let's just sanction him for this because it's easy". Mission accomplished...

...but not really. Should we then proclaim some other guy the "winner" of the tour, even if that guy has plasticizer results similar to Contador's (if that's the case). Personally, I don't think so.

Has there been news that the other guy has plasticizers in his samples?

 

[python]

If anything the lack of positives

you must be a blind and deaf man then, if you did not notice a plethora of clen positives.

have you heard of ovcharov who was acquitted but tested positive in the same german lab, by the same machines days apart from conta ?

 

[scribe]

Jesus python, give this a rest. "Hypocritical"... "your own ignorance"... were you not just a few pages back asking people to critique the post and not the person? Ok, so you have a beef with Hugh. Take it to PM for our sakes please if you don't want to tone it down and address his questions. Sorry to stick my nose in but this back and forth is ruining a decent thread.

This thread was ruined in the title.

 

[131313]

Has there been news that the other guy has plasticizers in his samples?

No, which is why I said "if".

There's actually been no mention of any of the results of the test (except for the leaked results of Contador). So we don't even know Contador's results. And that's as it should be.

The test was validated by a paper published only in December:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21188579?dopt=Abstract, and WADA are still investigating the usefulness of the test: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...t-from-researchers-transfused-blood-test.html

 

[offbyone]

you must be a blind and deaf man then, if you did not notice a plethora of clen positives.

have you heard of ovcharov who was acquitted but tested positive in the same german lab, by the same machines days apart from conta ?

If by plethora you mean <5 then, yeah I guess. That same lab has turned out less clen positives then epo positives in the same time period, so it seems pretty darn rare to me.

I think there are two issues that are being discussed here. The first being contador's positive. The second being whether there should be a wada rule change where there is now a minimum threshold for a clen positive. I look at these as two separate issues, but I think a lot of people are combining them. According to the rules and the science contador should be convicted.

Now if we think the rules need to be changed that should be a completely separate issue. If they are changed, then at that point contador can appeal. But for the rules to change I need some real science, not just presumption. Putting together a proper experiment to prove the fact wouldn't be that hard.

 

[python]

Given that, in cycling, perception is reality, as we've learned yesterday, a negative hairtest would always have benefitted AC, even if it were only to silence some of the critics and to make the parallel with Ovtcharov stronger.

i generally agree but what you missed, or assumed w/o any verification, that the hair test was NOT done. someone already told you, if you did not hear about it, it does not mean it did not happen. secondly a hair test has it's limitations too. a negative test with what generally reported a 30-to 60 day detectability window, was a tough choice for contador's hairstylist. contador learned about his positive 5 weeks after he gave the sample. generally, 3-5 cm of hair is required to look back 30-60 days. this means contador had to stop cutting his habitually short hair as soon as he leaned about his positive if he was properly advised. even then it was a toss.

AC knows the rules of the media. In fact, he's exploiting them maximally by not mentioning bloodtransfusion or plasticizer in his statements,

this is simply not the case if you read the disciplinary commission's 32 page document. blood transfusion evaluation is the centre piece there.

 

[python]

I need some real science, not just presumption.

based on your previous posts i seriously doubt you know the difference.