Contador acquitted

[Escarabajo]

Take into account the 3 times the EU threshold figure is for the meat. It refers to the smallest amount of clenbuterol the meat had to contain for it to cause a positive after being consumed by Contador. A rider would always show a smaller amount of clen in his system than the original meat he got the clen from, so the WADA labs presumably met the EU standards for meat, and the EU labs couldn't necessarily detect clenbuterol at the levels the Cologne lab could.

OK. Thanks.

So basically the Cologne lab is still tops and that any other acredited lab can test for the clen in the meat anyway.

We go back to the odds of eating that meat that was not tested.

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

OK. Thanks.

So basically the Cologne lab is still tops and that any other acredited lab can test for the clen in the meat anyway.

We go back to the odds of eating that meat that was not tested.

And having the luck of your urine going to the 'right' lab...

 

[BotanyBay]

And having the luck of your urine going to the 'right' lab...

But you could have all the urine going to the best "lab" with the worst "lab tech" and still get squat.

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

But you could have all the urine going to the best "lab" with the worst "lab tech" and still get squat.

Please don't tell me that it comes down to something that banal...

That could very well drive me away for another decade.

 

[Francois the Postman]

My 'word choice' not withstanding, I have to say that the respondents to my rather innocuous question seem to be a bit aggressive. I'm not looking for exculpation for riders.

I get a bit stroppy with people who turn my mildly worded questions and observations into "so all other tests are done in 3rd world country labs then?". That's where you went well beyond just posing innocuous questions, in my book. You twist my words and take them to a ridiculous extreme that I never got close to, I respond to that attitude. Don't come and throw it back in my face that I got a bit sharper with you after your choice of words to misstate my position, and use that as an excuse to sidestep all points I raised.

None the less... Shouldn't there be more positives? Just based upon the sheer number of riders being tested, you would think that more would show up. Maybe they didn't warrant the leak?

I kinda addressed some of this.

Only if the hypothetical situation actually exists. At the moment we don't know.

But if it did, what you appear to misjudge is how it would in all likelihood be distributed.

If it exists, any positive above zero (forget Contador) would still only show up more often...

1) there is a high chance that any random individual has currently spottable trace values in their system [it is more likely that it is exceptional to have a value that registers at the moment. How exceptional kinda matters here. We probably have no accurate answer to that. What is true is that the more sensitive the equipment becomes, the higher the risk that we start to find more dopers that never were, with zero-tolerance rules]

2) if it is actually tested with equipment that is sensitive enough to register these trace values [indicators are that few labs used are actually set up with the equipment to do this]

3) testing was done consistently to levels that low, and reported. [it appears that it isn't done consistently to that level, and quite possibly, not always reported either as there is no duty to report below a certain level]

Arguably, we already have one potentially "innocent" case of contamination in the peloton. That's a significant blip, to me. The harsher the penalty, the more "beyond reasonable doubt" kicks in as a precondition for sentencing, in my understanding of fairness. One innocent hit in, say, 10,000 tests would still be unacceptably high in my books, given the draconian consequences of getting a black mark against your name, with scales that turn red after zero in one colour only. If that is reasonable is another discussion.

But at the moment we are flying fairly blind. We don't know enough about the actual toxin levels that are picked up by a population, but our equipment is becoming increasingly able to detect them (just not applied that way that often). Levels for sport are already much stricter than applied to normal food sources. This triggers complications. The science behind the "validity and justice" of zero-tolerance rules is becoming increasingly weaker. And we need to come to some sort of arrangement with sporters before becoming a top-athlete means having to grow your own organic beef in your own yard, and producing all the stuff that goes into them too.

Given that the lab directors are flagging up we need to do more science about this terrain at the margins, I pretty much understand that to mean that we genuinely don't have enough data to reach hard conclusions yet. So I doubt if our quest for more data here to make a "what it means judgement, in general", in the Clinic, will be fruitful for the general issues raised, when the experts say they don't have enough to make bold statements, in general.

We might have enough data and science to address Contador and his Clen positive. I suspect we have, but I am not 100% convinced we do. WADA seems to think so. They might well be right. But if that case is as watertight s it sounds, it simply takes the sort of expertise that I don't have. So I guess it does, but I would not be surprised if there is something that they haven't factored in. I would also not be surprised if we are starting to drift into legal terrain that has implications that override the applicability of sporting rules. I am sure e will find out soon. At least I hope we do.

Fuyu's case is actually far more interesting, I think, even if his values were higher.

 

[BotanyBay]

Please don't tell me that it comes down to something that banal...

That could very well drive me away for another decade.

Hope not

Like I said, I wish it were as democratic as sticking all the tubes in an awesomely powerful dope-testing machine (the same machine for everyone) and looking at the print-out, but even today there is a huge part of this that comes down to relying on human competence.

Remember when Floyd tried to skewer the lab staff in Malibu? That was his best bet.

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

I get a bit stroppy with people who turn my mildly worded questions and observations into "so all other tests are done in 3rd world country labs then?". That's where you went well beyond just posing innocuous questions, in my book. You twist my words and take them to a ridiculous extreme that I never got close to, I respond to that attitude. Don't come and throw it back in my face that I got a bit sharper with you after your choice of words to misstate my position, and use that as an excuse to sidestep all points I raised.

All I was asking was that if testing protocols were universal (as they should be, including lab credentials and testing levels), why aren't there more positives from the general population of riders? That's a pretty big sample, with very few 'false' positives.

If the argument of environmental contamination can be upheld, as it seems to have been, what the h*ll's wrong with my question?

I'll step back now and let you listen to yourself for a page or two...

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

I'm not picking fights or trying to p*ss anyone off, I'm looking for information. If you take it personally, I'm sorry. Lighten up, you sound self-important.

 

[SierraSkier]

Where is the blood passport in this

Folks as I understand it the Clenbuterol in Contadors blood is either explained by eating tainted beef or by a transfusion of his own blood. I haven't seen anyone suggest he was micro-dosing or anything like that, or even that there would have been a benefit for what was in his blood. The transfusion arguement is elevated because of an unapproved test for plasticizers, which is not a test for WADA, but its good enough for me to think he is a doper.

But how is it possible for AC to shove a quart of blood into his arm and his blood values stay within a range of normal for a TDF participant? This really bothers me, it seems like he should be busted under the blood passport program even without the Clen test. Or, the blood passport program is a complete waste of time.

What am I missing here?

 

[JMBeaushrimp]

Folks as I understand it the Clenbuterol in Contadors blood is either explained by eating tainted beef or by a transfusion of his own blood. I haven't seen anyone suggest he was micro-dosing or anything like that, or even that there would have been a benefit for what was in his blood. The transfusion arguement is elevated because of an unapproved test for plasticizers, which is not a test for WADA, but its good enough for me to think he is a doper.

But how is it possible for AC to shove a quart of blood into his arm and his blood values stay within a range of normal for a TDF participant? This really bothers me, it seems like he should be busted under the blood passport program even without the Clen test. Or, the blood passport program is a complete waste of time.

What am I missing here?

I think that bit in bold...

 

[scribe]

If he had become seriously ill or died because of it, maybe. People can react strongly to genuine food scares, rationally and irrationally.

But I would be amazed if people had altered the buying habits of either the public or the industry buyers in any measurable way. That would have hit the papers by now. I haven't got the actual sales figures (nor do you I suspect).

So when you make the rather alarmist observations in your post, at least demonstrate that it had an actual significant impact, before starting to talk about a significant effort at monetary destruction of an industry. If you want Contador to be found guilty, fair enough. But to take every angle against and blow it up... there are better arguments that don't overshoot reality, I think.

Of course the Spanish meat industry comes out with a strongly worded reaction. I suspect that their concern at the moment is mainly about image, and their call is the direct result of representative responsibilities they have for their industry members.

And again we get that figure of x-amount of cattle tested and "not one positive". What does that actually mean? Tested to what level? Of legit sources only? How possible is illicit? Etc....

That the organisation expresses surprise that Contador didn't ring official alarm bells about the "crime against public health of which he allegedly was the victim", well, that's neither here nor there. That would hardly have been Contador's main concern even if we assume that his claim is and honestly held one, I think. He's fighting for his cycling skin. He's not there to "sort issues within the meat industry", if that has issues that need addressing.

You ask what the evidence is, and then answer your own question in the next paragraph. It's all about public perception. Contador is playing this, as is the Cattle Industry as a result of Contador's claims. The stakes are obvious, and naturally cannot be measured. The Cattle Industry has asked that prosecutors take a hard look at the situation, so they don't really need concrete evidence to behave in an alarmist fashion either.

To get to the meat of your reply, I do want Contador to be found guilty, of what he tested positive for.

 

[Oldman]

You ask what the evidence is, and then answer your own question in the next paragraph. It's all about public perception. Contador is playing this, as is the Cattle Industry as a result of Contador's claims. The stakes are obvious, and naturally cannot be measured. The Cattle Industry has asked that prosecutors take a hard look at the situation, so they don't really need concrete evidence to behave in an alarmist fashion either.

To get to the meat of your reply, I do want Contador to be found guilty, of what he tested positive for.[/QUOTE]

Nor do the rest of the sporting public. They would want the truth on this case but it will need to get in line with the other pending stories of the sport's decline into lab rat science.
That this many fans of a sport know this much about the means to cheat is telling enough, isn't it?

 

[rata de sentina]

Did you people forget that the concentration of clen in AC's steak must have been at least 3 times higher than the EU threshold, which only 1 in ~260 000 tested samples exceeded, slightly?

If you are going to use statistics you need to cite a source otherwise it's meaningless.

 

[yourwelcome]

It might well be time to move this to a separate thread in another area if this discussion continues in this direction.

Maybe, but nonetheless runninboy's and your posts were both interesting, so thanks for typing them out regardless.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Take into account the 3 times the EU threshold figure is for the meat. It refers to the smallest amount of clenbuterol the meat had to contain for it to cause a positive after being consumed by Contador. A rider would always show a smaller amount of clen in his system than the original meat he got the clen from, so the WADA labs presumably met the EU standards for meat, and the EU labs couldn't necessarily detect clenbuterol at the levels the Cologne lab could.

There is likely to be a difference for the value of the "meat" when tested and an "injection site" (in the cases where Clen is injected directly into muscle tissue). And if this is done repeatedly into the same area, it might well behave differently from a single dose, or doses spread across the animal's body. If everyone eats contaminated meat, someone is likely to have received the injection site, and could produce very different values as a result (hypothetically).

So, some area of the meat might well be more toxic than a "meat value" might suggest. Is this possibility taken into account too?

I am sure I read an old report once (long before this became a sports issue, late 80s? English? Might have been Dutch), but if it is available online, I can't find it anywhere. I vaguely recall that Clen injection sites behaved highly irregular, in how it disposed of the toxins, compared to how other parts of the body absorbed it, and how it broke down there. That it could remain relatively "high" without showing a reduction for days on end. It even discussed the effect of food preparation I think. Actual values and time scales kinda really matter here, as I have no idea how high "high was". I hope to see it again at some point (or an updated version). Anybody know something about this?

 

[Francois the Postman]

You ask what the evidence is, and then answer your own question in the next paragraph. It's all about public perception. Contador is playing this, as is the Cattle Industry as a result of Contador's claims. The stakes are obvious, and naturally cannot be measured. The Cattle Industry has asked that prosecutors take a hard look at the situation, so they don't really need concrete evidence to behave in an alarmist fashion either.

No, you raised the issue of actual impact, the "serious consequences" and "monetary destruction".

I am countering that, probably because of the different nature of this food scare, that impact so far appears to have been pretty much absent, and even if the cycling body accepts it is the meat, few if any will change any buying habits, as they would have done so already. The actual stakes (steaks?) appear to much much lower than with "real" food scares, that can indeed cripple industries (and would have done so by now, given how people and buyers tend to react when they get antsy).

So to me it seems you raise it here with an agenda, to big up your "how dare he" portrayal. There is indeed a potential/theoretical consequence, but that has pretty much remained absent as far as I can tell. Potential does not equate actual.

Given that a lot of time has already passed since the steak was raised, and no-one seems too spooked, you still talked about "serious consequences" and "it amounts to a significant effort at monetary destruction for some law abiding, well-intentioned individuals", my question to you was to demonstrate that this was indeed the case, that significant effort at monetary destruction.

If it was there, I ain't seeing it. I see a rider fighting for his skin, and none of the excuses/reasons he has used so far have had any dramatic impact on the entire Spanish industry and the law-abiding families involved. And it is still a technical possibility that Contador is one of them law-abiders too, unlikely as it appears after what "we" have taken on board as "factual" without having genuine access to all the facts. And I see a nation going on with business pretty much as usual. The EU meat alarm bells have not even tweeted about Spanish meat, let alone rung. Nor will they even if the cycling body determines that the steak was the likely source, or something.

We both agree that food scares can have that devastating effect on an industry (often self-inflicted to a point). I have no beef with that base understanding.

But you stated that Contador's meat story is currently threatening an entire industry. My question is how, given the very different nature of this one compared to, say, mad cow's disease or egg scares in Germany, or wine laced with toxins to speed up the process from harvest to shelf, and the pretty calm Spanish meat waters we have had since the story broke.

In my book, your argument sounds as if it is played for dramatic effect. So I asked indeed what the evidence is that this doom or impending doom you flag up is a genuine cloud. I most certainly did not answer that question for you.

 

[scribe]

No, you raised the issue of actual impact. I am countering that, probably because of the different nature of this food scare, that impact so far appears to have been pretty much absent. The actual stakes (steaks?) appear to much much lower than with "real" food scares, that can indeed cripple industries (and would have done so by now, given how people and buyers tend to react when they get antsy).

So to me it seems you raise it here with an agenda, to big up your "how dare he" portrayal. There is indeed a potential/theoretical consequence, but that has pretty much remained absent as far as I can tell. Potential does not equate actual.

Given that a lot of time has already passed since the steak was raised, and no-one seems too spooked, you still talked about "serious consequences" and "it amounts to a significant effort at monetary destruction for some law abiding, well-intentioned individuals", my question to you was to demonstrate that this was indeed the case, that significant effort at monetary destruction.

If it was there, I ain't seeing it. I see a rider fighting for his skin, and none of the excuses/reasons he has used so far have had any dramatic impact on the entire Spanish industry and the law-abiding families involved. And it is still a technical possibility that Contador is one of them too, unlikely as it appears after what "we" have taken on board as "factual" without having genuine access to all the facts.

In my book, your argument sounds as if it is played for dramatic effect. So I asked indeed what the evidence is that this is taking place. I most certainly did not answer that question for you.

Uh. You can't go into a crowded theater and cry out fire because it suits your interest, and not expect any consequences. Same difference.

 

[Francois the Postman]

Uh. You can't go into a crowded theater and cry out fire because it suits your interest, and not expect any consequences. Same difference.

Unless your pants are on fire.

We are still trying to establish what Contador's actual defence was, in detail. You have drawn conclusions that are not set in stone (yet).

Regardless, once again you are ducking your own statement that this diving for the exits is happening already, and Contador's meat story is already heavily impacting on the livelihood of tens of thousands, or seriously threatening it. The comment I challenged.

We both agree that that could be the case with a food scandal, We seriously disagree that that is the case with this particular one.

Can you not see a difference in the threat level that the public experiences, and thus how the industry reacts, between toxic eggs and mad cows, and a cyclist who has been caught with a level of a substance that no-one cares about, and that has no impact on him whatsoever? Heck, I bet more people have tried to track down Clen than have given up Spanish beef as a consequence of all this.

All this talk about the impact of a high profile rider and what he is doing to the Spanish industry is agenda driven, to depict Contador in a certain way (rightly or wrongly). Spanish farmer families are so far from this particular impact zone that raising their threatened livelihood as a genuine issue tells me exactly how keen you are to see Contador convicted, and nothing about the actual outrage that you feel for these families, or the actual threat they are under.

Trust me, if meat quality concerns were a real issue, or an industry genuinely feared for its farmers, the EU papers and governments and lobbyist would be using stargates by now. Genuine meat problems have always been headline grabbers here. The silence about the quality of Spanish meat, and the state of its meat industry, beyond cycling articles, is deafening. If you would ask one of those meat farmers' families what concerns them most, I bet it's the sharp rice increases for animal feed and the state of the Spanish economy, not Contador.

So I feel I am being played for effect, when people take that line of argumentation. As I said, I think you have better arguments to take Contador on with.

 

[Cimber]

Danish Anti Doping Chairman praises RFEC's report.

Here is the article translated with google:

Anti Doping Denmark roses spanish exposition

President of the Anti Doping Denmark, Jens Evald, have read the 35 page-long statement by the Spanish cycling federation acquittal of Alberto Contador, and he is, according to Berlingske Tidende not afraid to praise their work.
"It is a very thorough and unbiased presentation. Jeg er ikke overrasket over afgørelsen. I'm not surprised by the decision. Den ligger lige til højrebenet, og jeg vil godt som professionel jurist afvise, at man er kommet let om opgaven,” siger Jens Evald og afviser samtidigt, at forbundet har truffet deres afgørelse på følelser i stedet for fakta. It lies just to the right leg, and I would like as a professional lawyer deny that it has come easy for the task, "said Jens Evald and reject simultaneously connected to have made their decision on emotions instead of facts.


”Intet i denne afgørelse tyder på, at man i disciplinærkomiteen er blevet bevæget til at frifinde Contador andet end på baggrund af de saglige kriterier og hensyn, man selv har fremdraget. "Nothing in this ruling suggests that the Disciplinary Committee has been moved to dismiss Contador other than on the basis of objective criteria and consideration you have raised. Man tør jo godt stikke fingrene ned i hvepsereden, man har forholdt sig til det retslige, gennemgået sagen minutiøst og argumenteret for afgørelsen. Mon dry very well poke your fingers into the wasp nest, you have a position on the court, reviewed the matter minutely and argued for the decision. Jeg mener ikke, der er noget at komme efter.” I do not think there is something to follow. "


Hvis UCI og WADA læser redegørelsen som Anti Doping Danmark, så tyder det på, at Alberto Contador ikke skal være nervøs for at de anker afgørelsen til CAS. If the UCI and WADA read the statement as Anti Doping Denmark, so it appears that Alberto Contador would not be nervous that they will appeal the decision to CAS.

Article in Danish: http://www.feltet.dk/nyheder/anti_doping_danmark_roser_spansk_redegoerelse/

 

[Papparrazzi]

But the silence about the quality of Spanish meat, surely adds weight to the argument, that it is more unlikely Contador got the Clen from a cow.

 

[Cimber]

Anti Doping Denmark Chairman praises RFEC's report. This is a google translate from the article:

Anti Doping Denmark praises spanish exposition
Chairman of the Anti Doping Denmark, Jens Evald, have read the 35 page-long statement by the Spanish cycling federation acquittal of Alberto Contador, and he is, according to Berlingske Tidende not afraid to praise their work.

"It is a very thorough and unbiased presentation. I'm not surprised by the decision. It lies just to the right leg, and I would like as a professional lawyer deny that it has come easy for the task, "said Jens Evald and reject simultaneously connected to have made their decision on emotions instead of facts.

"Nothing in this ruling suggests that the Disciplinary Committee has been moved to dismiss Contador other than on the basis of objective criteria and consideration you have raised. Mon dry very well poke your fingers into the wasp nest, you have a position on the court, reviewed the matter minutely and argued for the decision. I do not think there is something to follow. "

If the UCI and WADA read the statement as Anti Doping Denmark, so it appears that Alberto Contador would not be nervous that they will appeal the decision to CAS.

Article in Danish http://www.feltet.dk/nyheder/anti_doping_danmark_roser_spansk_redegoerelse/

 

[Ney the Viking]

In the danish news yesterday it was repported that the danish anti doping agency had issued a warning about eating meat when in asia and specifically china. This was sent out to the Badminton and Tabletennis players that frequently tour in Asia.

The reason a german study that tested 28 people returning from China from either buissness holiday etc. 22 of the 28 showed traces of Clen apparently :O

Anyone had heard similar reports?

 

[L'arriviste]

Unless your pants are on fire.

We are still trying to establish what Contador's actual defence was, in detail. You have drawn conclusions that are not set in stone (yet).

Regardless, once again you are ducking your own statement that this diving for the exits is happening already, and Contador's meat story is already heavily impacting on the livelihood of tens of thousands, or seriously threatening it. The comment I challenged.

We both agree that that could be the case with a food scandal, We seriously disagree that that is the case with this particular one.

Can you not see a difference in the threat level that the public experiences, and thus how the industry reacts, between toxic eggs and mad cows, and a cyclist who has been caught with a level of a substance that no-one cares about, and that has no impact on him whatsoever? Heck, I bet more people have tried to track down Clen than have given up Spanish beef as a consequence of all this.

All this talk about the impact of a high profile rider and what he is doing to the Spanish industry is agenda driven, to depict Contador in a certain way (rightly or wrongly). Spanish farmer families are so far from this particular impact zone that raising their threatened livelihood as a genuine issue tells me exactly how keen you are to see Contador convicted, and nothing about the actual outrage that you feel for these families, or the actual threat they are under.

Trust me, if meat quality concerns were a real issue, or an industry genuinely feared for its farmers, the EU papers and governments and lobbyist would be using stargates by now. Genuine meat problems have always been headline grabbers here. The silence about the quality of Spanish meat, and the state of its meat industry, beyond cycling articles, is deafening. If you would ask one of those meat farmers' families what concerns them most, I bet it's the sharp rice increases for animal feed and the state of the Spanish economy, not Contador.

So I feel I am being played for effect, when people take that line of argumentation. As I said, I think you have better arguments to take Contador on with.

I appreciate your position on this François, which is well-reasoned. I agreed with scribe earlier in this thread on the matter of allegations that affect the Spanish meat industry. I wouldn't presume to speak for scribe, but for my part I can offer this by way of explanation:

There isn't a scandal and not a peep from the EU, you're quite right, but I think that it may have more to do with a cyclist crying wolf and not seriously being believed when he tries to pull an Edwina Currie (for non- / young-Brits, Currie was a UK govt health minister who was forced to resign in 1988 for telling journos that "most of the egg production in this country, sadly, is now affected with salmonella"). Perhaps for most Spaniards, what Contador says against the background of the filthy dust cloud that sports kick up today, is largely irrelevant to their daily lives.

For me, it's not so much that I'm trying to make a case or to present an argument as such, nor am I suggesting that those people are already losing their livelihoods, I'm just responding to what I think is very ugly, unfocused reasoning that Contador is using to explain why that substance turned up in his sample. He can't prove there was Clenbuterol in the meat he ate, so he's using a platform that only a guy with his means can create whose collateral damage could affect a whole industry to further his own interests.

I mean, if he really believes what he's saying, why not demand a public enquiry on meat like the Spanish meat industry is demanding an inquiry from the Public Prosecutor on what Contador is saying?

 

[Francois the Postman]

Just came here to post the same news, reported by ANP

http://www.volkskrant.nl/vk/nl/2698...aarschuwt-Chinagangers-voor-clenbuterol.dhtml

It didn't mention which Doping Authority, nor how many people were tested, or from which discipline, nor the actual levels.

It does suggest that 22 positives were from athletes, tested by a (school) lab in Koln, taken in samples from 15 sep - 15 jan 2010.

Combined with your story, I suspect the Dutch article is a bad rehash of the Danish ones, and inaccuracies have crept in. (a mixture of people has become all athletes, by the look of things). I would be keen to see the correct data for this one.

But it does highlight that zero-tolerance has a real problem right now, if 22 of 28 people/athletes indeed picked up clen due to contamination. Or if even 1 did.

That is a shocking statistic, if true, and if even vaguely reflective of the chances to pick something up over there courtesy of having had a meal.

 

[Francois the Postman]

But the silence about the quality of Spanish meat, surely adds weight to the argument, that it is more unlikely Contador got the Clen from a cow.

It suggests that people don't really care or believe it. It also suggests that the industry itself doesn't think there is a systemic problem, with a standardised testing regime in place that doesn't flag up any abnormalities.

It probably means that it isn't believed. [whatever "it" is. I am still not clear of what people report Contador is claiming has actually been claimed by him in his detailed defence, as I would expect the head of an anti-doping agency to be at least aware of the level of meat contamination needed, and blood doping theory alternative, but who apparently still buys the ruling as factually sound]

It doesn't necessarily mean that it is considered unlikely. No-one got ill. If Contador had become ill and told the same story, the responses would have been very different. Since this is now probably seen as purely a sports issue with maybe an isolated transgression at best. The meat industry really has bigger head aches to be concerned about.

It looks like the Danish Anti-Doping authority has come out in support of the Spanish ruling. It looks like the "Contador defence is ludicrous" stance isn't really that clear cut.