Contador vs. Froome

[PremierAndrew]

This is ridiculous. Froome couldn't have known that Dumo would receive no help and if he had gotten help, Froome wouldn't be in pink today. Lopez surviving on the Finestre and therefore ending Dumo's hopes that Carapaz would work with him made all the difference between 'a Armstrong-esque disgusting attack' and 'an incredible 80km solo stage win to light up the Giro and to grab a memorable runners up spot on the podium'

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

This is ridiculous. Froome couldn't have known that Dumo would receive no help and if he had gotten help, Froome wouldn't be in pink today. Lopez surviving on the Finestre and therefore ending Dumo's hopes that Carapaz would work with him made all the difference between 'a Armstrong-esque disgusting attack' and 'an incredible 80km solo stage win to light up the Giro and to grab a memorable runners up spot on the podium'

Ofcourse he couldn't have known. Still it was his only shot at winning the Giro.

And given that the riders who didn't do anything in the chase could barely put a dent into Froome on the last climb, it's not like they could've contributed that much.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

This is ridiculous. Froome couldn't have known that Dumo would receive no help and if he had gotten help, Froome wouldn't be in pink today. Lopez surviving on the Finestre and therefore ending Dumo's hopes that Carapaz would work with him made all the difference between 'a Armstrong-esque disgusting attack' and 'an incredible 80km solo stage win to light up the Giro and to grab a memorable runners up spot on the podium'

Ofcourse he couldn't have known. Still it was his only shot at winning the Giro.

A shot that he didn't need to take, could easily have saved his matches for the Tour and taken a well-salvaged 2nd place to complete his set of GT podiums

(or just gone home a week earlier)

 

[roundabout]

But the moment he started to gain time on sestriere I realized this isn't a story of heroism, this is a story of Armstrong pretending to be contador. This was Froome showing the world that he is the most aggressive bike racer in the world while in reality making the most calculated attack of his career. I might write this in the heat of the moment (although this moment is already almost a day long, so maybe this actually isn't a moment at all) but right now I'm back to were I was before this giro. Chapeau to Froome for being the strongest but that's it.

I think that's a very, very good way of putting it

Utterly, utterly, utterly ridiculous post. Unless you also think that 80km solos for 2,5 hours to make up 3 minutes can be calculated.

Says it all that yet another Contador fan is struggling to give it credit.

I give credit for brutal strength alright

But given the GC standings at that point and how good Froome was yesterday, going solo from 80km out was a very simple decision once the break didn't get away.

It's the Colle delle Finestre. You're not caught by a peloton of 30 riders chasing you, it's tiny groups where noone is fresh. Worst case scenario, he gets caught by the Dumoulin group and still gains time in GC.

I don't think this was some genius, super brave move. I think it was the logical thing to try.

With the benefit of hindsight it's sure as *** easy to write that it was a "simple" decision to make. Maybe one should use the factors known at the actual time the attack was made to judge how brave it was.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

This is ridiculous. Froome couldn't have known that Dumo would receive no help and if he had gotten help, Froome wouldn't be in pink today. Lopez surviving on the Finestre and therefore ending Dumo's hopes that Carapaz would work with him made all the difference between 'a Armstrong-esque disgusting attack' and 'an incredible 80km solo stage win to light up the Giro and to grab a memorable runners up spot on the podium'

Ofcourse he couldn't have known. Still it was his only shot at winning the Giro.

A shot that he didn't need to take, could easily have saved his matches for the Tour and taken a well-salvaged 2nd place to complete his set of GT podiums

(or just gone home a week earlier)

Look where Pozzovivo ended.

It's not like Froome even risked the 2nd place finish by attacking.

 

[roundabout]

Re: Re:

This is ridiculous. Froome couldn't have known that Dumo would receive no help and if he had gotten help, Froome wouldn't be in pink today. Lopez surviving on the Finestre and therefore ending Dumo's hopes that Carapaz would work with him made all the difference between 'a Armstrong-esque disgusting attack' and 'an incredible 80km solo stage win to light up the Giro and to grab a memorable runners up spot on the podium'

Ofcourse he couldn't have known. Still it was his only shot at winning the Giro.

And given that the riders who didn't do anything in the chase could barely put a dent into Froome on the last climb, it's not like they could've contributed that much.

And again, there was no way of knowing it when he made that attack. So it's ridiculous to write that it was calculated.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

He at least didn't give up and pack his bags for the Tour, like most people thought he would and suggested he do

You gotta at least give him kudos for fighting on, if nothing else

To be fair, given Sky's track record in the Giro, plus other riders who've historically focused on the Tour riding it in recent years (Fränk Schleck in 2012 springs to mind), it wasn't an unfair supposition that a leader in suboptimal form would withdraw, especially when Froome has more reason than most to focus on the Tour given he's, you know, only the three-time defending champion trying to match the official record.

However, unlike Wiggins completely losing his nerve or Porte falling apart after that 2 minute penalty, or even the poor fortune with the moto crash that Thomas had last year, Froome never fell truly out of contention. He was seemingly out of contention for the win barring something spectacular (of course, we then got something spectacular) but he hadn't fallen completely off the map. After Montevergine I was thinking there might be a bit of the Ryder Hesjedals about this, when Scarponi admitted they underestimated Hesjedal after seeing him struggle at the back of the group early in the race assuming he'd drop away, only for him to - as he tended to do - ride himself back into form and be able to come back due to the conservative racing and not having as much of a deficit as he might have done, and win the race. As I say, I thought about that and had a slight feeling the big guns may regret not distancing Froome by enough earlier on, but I put it out of my mind as week 2 went on and Froome didn't seem to be getting any more competitive, and after the Osimo stage I forgot about it and figured that while he may salvage a decent GC position and had an outside shot of the podium, that was probably as good as it'd get for him.

 

[Red Rick]

But the moment he started to gain time on sestriere I realized this isn't a story of heroism, this is a story of Armstrong pretending to be contador. This was Froome showing the world that he is the most aggressive bike racer in the world while in reality making the most calculated attack of his career. I might write this in the heat of the moment (although this moment is already almost a day long, so maybe this actually isn't a moment at all) but right now I'm back to were I was before this giro. Chapeau to Froome for being the strongest but that's it.

I think that's a very, very good way of putting it

Utterly, utterly, utterly ridiculous post. Unless you also think that 80km solos for 2,5 hours to make up 3 minutes can be calculated.

Says it all that yet another Contador fan is struggling to give it credit.

I give credit for brutal strength alright

But given the GC standings at that point and how good Froome was yesterday, going solo from 80km out was a very simple decision once the break didn't get away.

It's the Colle delle Finestre. You're not caught by a peloton of 30 riders chasing you, it's tiny groups where noone is fresh. Worst case scenario, he gets caught by the Dumoulin group and still gains time in GC.

I don't think this was some genius, super brave move. I think it was the logical thing to try.

With the benefit of hindsight it's sure as **** easy to write that it was a "simple" decision to make. Maybe one should use the factors known at the actual time the attack was made to judge how brave it was.

The chasing scenario wasn't one of a kind, it's the kind of chasing scenario that happens more often than not.

 

[roundabout]

Re: Re:

This is ridiculous. Froome couldn't have known that Dumo would receive no help and if he had gotten help, Froome wouldn't be in pink today. Lopez surviving on the Finestre and therefore ending Dumo's hopes that Carapaz would work with him made all the difference between 'a Armstrong-esque disgusting attack' and 'an incredible 80km solo stage win to light up the Giro and to grab a memorable runners up spot on the podium'

Ofcourse he couldn't have known. Still it was his only shot at winning the Giro.

A shot that he didn't need to take, could easily have saved his matches for the Tour and taken a well-salvaged 2nd place to complete his set of GT podiums

(or just gone home a week earlier)

Look where Pozzovivo ended.

It's not like Froome even risked the 2nd place finish by attacking.

He had a minute on Pinot before the stage.

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

This is ridiculous. Froome couldn't have known that Dumo would receive no help and if he had gotten help, Froome wouldn't be in pink today. Lopez surviving on the Finestre and therefore ending Dumo's hopes that Carapaz would work with him made all the difference between 'a Armstrong-esque disgusting attack' and 'an incredible 80km solo stage win to light up the Giro and to grab a memorable runners up spot on the podium'

Ofcourse he couldn't have known. Still it was his only shot at winning the Giro.

A shot that he didn't need to take, could easily have saved his matches for the Tour and taken a well-salvaged 2nd place to complete his set of GT podiums

(or just gone home a week earlier)

Look where Pozzovivo ended.

It's not like Froome even risked the 2nd place finish by attacking.

Well what I would have done after seeing Yates drop is send De La Cruz and Poels up the road, make Oomen/Dumo close it down, and then attack over the top of Finestre. If that happened, we don't see the Finestre ridden anywhere near as hard, and Pozzo doesn't drop. So yeah, when the call was made to just drill it on the Finestre and solo it, there was no indication that Pozzo was struggling, and Froome was in fact risking his 2nd place. In fact, I'd say he was risking his podium altogether, because once Yates had gone with 86k left, Froome was on the virtual podium. That solo doesn't work out, Pinot could certainly take a minute out of him and grab the final podium spot after Froome is cooked out on the front on all day, just like in last year's Dauphine

 

[roundabout]

The chasing scenario wasn't one of a kind, it's the kind of chasing scenario that happens more often than not.

Must be why we see so many long range attacks in the mountains. After all, the outcomes are so easy to predict apparently now.

 

[Red Rick]

The chasing scenario wasn't one of a kind, it's the kind of chasing scenario that happens more often than not.

Must be why we see so many long range attacks in the mountains. After all, the outcomes are so easy to predict apparently now.

That's more circumstantial than anything else. Usually, a rider who's that strong already has the GC wrapped up by stage 19, instead of being 3 minutes down.

Secondly, this was the perfect stage for an 80km solo, and they rarely come around like that. The Finestre and the Mortirolo are the only climbs that create this type of carnage, so you're talking about a tiny, tiny sample size.

 

[roundabout]

So how much did you make betting on Froome to win the Giro when he made his attack?

 

[Gigs_98]

One thing important to note is that Froome didn't lose any time on Jafferau and even carapaz could only gain 30 seconds with a short push on the last 500m. What exactly if Froome would have been caught? He apparently wouldn't have lost time anyway. If he had stayed on dumoulin's wheel on the climb he even might have been able to fight for the stage win. He was so strong, there was no risk. This performance was so dominant it isn't comparable to any previous performances in the modern age of gt racing.

 

[Revealer]

One thing important to note is that Froome didn't lose any time on Jafferau and even carapaz could only gain 30 seconds with a short push on the last 500m. What exactly if Froome would have been caught? He apparently wouldn't have lost time anyway. If he had stayed on dumoulin's wheel on the climb he even might have been able to fight for the stage win. He was so strong, there was no risk. This performance was so dominant it isn't comparable to any previous performances in the modern age of gt racing.

If Carapaz was able to gain 30 seconds with a short push in 500m imagine how much a better climber would've gained going all out from farther down. Froome climbed Jafferau in the same time with Doumoulin, who should be a worse climber than he is and who did almost the same amount of work as he did.

Lopez and Carapaz had their own race within a race and Doumoulin and Pinot were already in the red. Probably if either Lopez or Carapaz would've gone full gas on the climb they could've gained at least 2 minutes on Froome. Unfortunately neither of them was willing to do that since the stage win was out of reach and they were afraid of one another.

 

[Red Rick]

One thing important to note is that Froome didn't lose any time on Jafferau and even carapaz could only gain 30 seconds with a short push on the last 500m. What exactly if Froome would have been caught? He apparently wouldn't have lost time anyway. If he had stayed on dumoulin's wheel on the climb he even might have been able to fight for the stage win. He was so strong, there was no risk. This performance was so dominant it isn't comparable to any previous performances in the modern age of gt racing.

If Carapaz was able to gain 30 seconds with a short push in 500m imagine how much a better climber would've gained going all out from farther down. Froome climbed Jafferau in the same time with Doumoulin, who should be a worse climber than he is and who did almost the same amount of work as he did.

Lopez and Carapaz had their own race within a race and Doumoulin and Pinot were already in the red. Probably if either Lopez or Carapaz would've gone full gas on the climb they could've gained at least 2 minutes on Froome. Unfortunately neither of them was willing to do that since the stage win was out of reach and they were afraid of one another.

That's just not feasable at all.

 

[Gigs_98]

One thing important to note is that Froome didn't lose any time on Jafferau and even carapaz could only gain 30 seconds with a short push on the last 500m. What exactly if Froome would have been caught? He apparently wouldn't have lost time anyway. If he had stayed on dumoulin's wheel on the climb he even might have been able to fight for the stage win. He was so strong, there was no risk. This performance was so dominant it isn't comparable to any previous performances in the modern age of gt racing.

If Carapaz was able to gain 30 seconds with a short push in 500m imagine how much a better climber would've gained going all out from farther down. Froome climbed Jafferau in the same time with Doumoulin, who should be a worse climber than he is and who did almost the same amount of work as he did.

Lopez and Carapaz had their own race within a race and Doumoulin and Pinot were already in the red. Probably if either Lopez or Carapaz would've gone full gas on the climb they could've gained at least 2 minutes on Froome. Unfortunately neither of them was willing to do that since the stage win was out of reach and they were afraid of one another.

Lopez was attacking earlier on the climb but dumoulin reeled him in again. Saying he and carapaz could have gained minutes is rubbish. And which better climbers would you like to attack from further out? The best climbers were in that group with dumoulin, if someone else was a better climber he wouldn't have dropped on the finestre.

About Froome climbing as fast as Dumoulin, well first of all dumoulin didn't work almost as much as Froome, he worked less than half as much, which is a lot over 80 kilometers. Moreover, I'd like to compare this stage to last years TTWC which was basically froome's solo divided by two. On the uphill finish there Dumoulin gained time on Froome because you can't compare a time trial with how climbs are usually ridden. Yesterday basically was a time trial up the final climb by both Froome and Dumoulin. So I wouldn't necessarily say Froome should be better on that climb.

 

[Revealer]

One thing important to note is that Froome didn't lose any time on Jafferau and even carapaz could only gain 30 seconds with a short push on the last 500m. What exactly if Froome would have been caught? He apparently wouldn't have lost time anyway. If he had stayed on dumoulin's wheel on the climb he even might have been able to fight for the stage win. He was so strong, there was no risk. This performance was so dominant it isn't comparable to any previous performances in the modern age of gt racing.

If Carapaz was able to gain 30 seconds with a short push in 500m imagine how much a better climber would've gained going all out from farther down. Froome climbed Jafferau in the same time with Doumoulin, who should be a worse climber than he is and who did almost the same amount of work as he did.

Lopez and Carapaz had their own race within a race and Doumoulin and Pinot were already in the red. Probably if either Lopez or Carapaz would've gone full gas on the climb they could've gained at least 2 minutes on Froome. Unfortunately neither of them was willing to do that since the stage win was out of reach and they were afraid of one another.

Lopez was attacking earlier on the climb but dumoulin reeled him in again. Saying he and carapaz could have gained minutes is rubbish. And which better climbers would you like to attack from further out? The best climbers were in that group with dumoulin, if someone else was a better climber he wouldn't have dropped on the finestre.

About Froome climbing as fast as Dumoulin, well first of all dumoulin didn't work almost as much as Froome, he worked less than half as much, which is a lot over 80 kilometers. Moreover, I'd like to compare this stage to last years TTWC which was basically froome's solo divided by two. On the uphill finish there Dumoulin gained time on Froome because you can't compare a time trial with how climbs are usually ridden. Yesterday basically was a time trial up the final climb by both Froome and Dumoulin. So I wouldn't necessarily say Froome should be better on that climb.

I wasn't referring on the climbers currently in this race, I was referring to hypothetical climbers like Quintana, Nibali (when in form). Besides MAL no one in the "chasing" group wasn't considered before a pure, top tier climber - although that is of course subjective and depending on each rider's form.

Also, the TTWC had a 4 km climb at the end, not preceded by previous climbs of that magnitude. In a road race situation, if a group fighting for the stage win containing both Froome and Doumoulin would start together at the bottom the Jafferrau, who would have the higher chance to finish in front of the other? That's what I've meant by Froome being expected to be better on that sort of climb.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think Froome would win, but not by much. As I wrote, I think the way how mountain top finishes are usually ridden suits Froome more than Dumoulin so the difference would be a few seconds. Look at the MTT in the 2016 tdf where Froome barely won although Dumoulin wasn't even a gc rider back then and therefore less suited to mountains than now. Before Jafferau started I expected Froome to lose a lot more time

 

[Revealer]

I think Froome would win, but not by much. As I wrote, I think the way how mountain top finishes are usually ridden suits Froome more than Dumoulin so the difference would be a few seconds. Look at the MTT in the 2016 tdf where Froome barely won although Dumoulin wasn't even a gc rider back then and therefore less suited to mountains than now. Before Jafferau started I expected Froome to lose a lot more time

I do agree that normally Froome should've lost more time on the last climb, but by the way the chasers rode up to that point I was expecting that they wouldn't made any major inroads into his advantage, if he didn't crack completely. After all, Lopez was dropped on the Finestre, Doumoulin looked spent, Pinot well...

Froome did what many people like to see from any rider - took a major gamble and did an all or nothing Hail Mary. Fortunately for him all the puzzles fell in the right place for him - Yates dropped early, Pinot mechanical right before the top of the Finestre, Lopez made to the chasers group at the top of the climb so that Carapaz had no incentive to help the chase to distance him, Doumoulin deciding to wait for Reichenbach so that instead of 40 seconds advantage when the descent was finished it was almost 2 minutes, Lopez and Carapaz locked in their own battle and never caring about a potential stage victory etc.

After all he climbed the Finestre 2 minutes slower than Rujano - when the pace was very high from the bottom of the climb and he went full gas when the gravel portion started and the Jafferau more than 3 minutes slower than Nibali in 2014.

 

[gregrowlerson]

I think Froome would win, but not by much. As I wrote, I think the way how mountain top finishes are usually ridden suits Froome more than Dumoulin so the difference would be a few seconds. Look at the MTT in the 2016 tdf where Froome barely won although Dumoulin wasn't even a gc rider back then and therefore less suited to mountains than now. Before Jafferau started I expected Froome to lose a lot more time

I do agree that normally Froome should've lost more time on the last climb, but by the way the chasers rode up to that point I was expecting that they wouldn't made any major inroads into his advantage, if he didn't crack completely. After all, Lopez was dropped on the Finestre, Doumoulin looked spent, Pinot well...

Froome did what many people like to see from any rider - took a major gamble and did an all or nothing Hail Mary. Fortunately for him all the puzzles fell in the right place for him - Yates dropped early, Pinot mechanical right before the top of the Finestre, Lopez made to the chasers group at the top of the climb so that Carapaz had no incentive to help the chase to distance him, Doumoulin deciding to wait for Reichenbach so that instead of 40 seconds advantage when the descent was finished it was almost 2 minutes, Lopez and Carapaz locked in their own battle and never caring about a potential stage victory etc.

After all he climbed the Finestre 2 minutes slower than Rujano - when the pace was very high from the bottom of the climb and he went full gas when the gravel portion started and the Jafferau more than 3 minutes slower than Nibali in 2014.

I noticed these times printed in another area of the boards, and was surprised. 2 minutes is a reasonable amount - even given the era then - and 3 minutes is even more so, on a much shorter climb, suggesting a less 'alien' performance then what we appeared to see racing wise.

Excellent post earlier LS, always well thought out and constructed conversation; I certainly agree with the sudden significant jump in performance at the Vuelta '11 and the team that he rides for as factors that reduce his potential popularity. However, at least for me as a rather serious fan of road cycling (though admittedly not a cyclist myself), I've never considered his different style and position on a bike as being particularly derogatory towards his situation of being at the top of the sport. I guess I've always more seen success in road cycling as being about lung capacity, that dirty word 'cadence', and weight (when it comes to climbing) vs. power output (plus stage to stage recovery of course when it comes to GT GC success). Going back some ways now, but when I used to watch long distance running with enormous enthusiasm, I didn't think that Wilson Kipketer should win the 800 metres because of his smooth style (even though he usually did), just as I never expected Andreas Kloden to win bike races for the same reason (which of course he usually didn't). Perhaps more riders are popular than other's because they are easier on the eye in a style sense (Klodi being my favourite rider could be argument for that), but for example I never thought that Andreas Kloden should beat - or was more likely to beat - Cadel Evans in grand tours because he looked more effortless. There are many different ways to skin a cat (or a dog, as this case might be).

As for having to try to explain things about road cycling to non - or new - fans; how about this one:

"But how has Chris Froome already won the Giro if the race doesn't finish until tomorrow?"

In a sport with a lot of grey areas, I've always thought this one to be a weird scenario where any potential new fan would understandably switch off and go and watch something that makes more sense

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Interesting parallels continue. Both have now won all 3 GTs, both have now or will soon (surely) serve suspensions related to relatively minor offenses, both were dominant when they first burst on the scene (though Froome was a few years older) then proceeded to win using more craft and unexpected measures, and both have likely seen their powers begin to wane approximately 5 years after initial dominance (2007-2012 for Contador, 2012-2017 for Froome), while still finding a way to win with dramatic long range attacks that resulted in sudden reversals. Both likely should have won more Tours than they did. Contador could have easily ended up with 6 (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014) but instead had 2. Froome could easily have won 6 so far (2012-2017) but instead has 4. No real point here, just interesting to think about how closely they’ve mapped so far and how closely Froome’s arc might follow Contador’s going forward.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

Interesting parallels continue. Both have now won all 3 GTs, both have now or will soon (surely) serve suspensions related to relatively minor offenses, both were dominant when they first burst on the scene (though Froome was a few years older) then proceeded to win using more craft and unexpected measures, and both have likely seen their powers begin to wane approximately 5 years after initial dominance (2007-2012 for Contador, 2012-2017 for Froome), while still finding a way to win with dramatic long range attacks that resulted in sudden reversals. Both likely should have won more Tours than they did. Contador could have easily ended up with 6 (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014) but instead had 2. Froome could easily have won 6 so far (2012-2017) but instead has 4. No real point here, just interesting to think about how closely they’ve mapped so far and how closely Froome’s arc might follow Contador’s going forward.

I really think they're more different than they are similar.

 

[Taxus4a]

Re:

So how much did you make betting on Froome to win the Giro when he made his attack?

I wrote days before Froome will win the Giro with a long attack from la Finestre and after the day before I wrote ir again, becouse it was quite obvious.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re: Re:

So how much did you make betting on Froome to win the Giro when he made his attack?

I wrote days before Froome will win the Giro with a long attack from la Finestre and after the day before I wrote ir again, becouse it was quite obvious.

Link?