Gigs_98 said:
I think Froome would win, but not by much. As I wrote, I think the way how mountain top finishes are usually ridden suits Froome more than Dumoulin so the difference would be a few seconds. Look at the MTT in the 2016 tdf where Froome barely won although Dumoulin wasn't even a gc rider back then and therefore less suited to mountains than now. Before Jafferau started I expected Froome to lose a lot more time
I do agree that normally Froome should've lost more time on the last climb, but by the way the chasers rode up to that point I was expecting that they wouldn't made any major inroads into his advantage, if he didn't crack completely. After all, Lopez was dropped on the Finestre, Doumoulin looked spent, Pinot well...
Froome did what many people like to see from any rider - took a major gamble and did an all or nothing Hail Mary. Fortunately for him all the puzzles fell in the right place for him - Yates dropped early, Pinot mechanical right before the top of the Finestre, Lopez made to the chasers group at the top of the climb so that Carapaz had no incentive to help the chase to distance him, Doumoulin deciding to wait for Reichenbach so that instead of 40 seconds advantage when the descent was finished it was almost 2 minutes, Lopez and Carapaz locked in their own battle and never caring about a potential stage victory etc.
After all he climbed the Finestre 2 minutes slower than Rujano - when the pace was very high from the bottom of the climb and he went full gas when the gravel portion started and the Jafferau more than 3 minutes slower than Nibali in 2014.