fmk_RoI said:
Disagreeing all the time? Of course that would be stupid. But they would have to disagree
sometime, do something
sometime which clearly goes against the wishes of the UCI, because it would only be then that you would be able to see them actually acting independent. What could that something be? It could be something as simple as retro-testing, which historically the UCI has been against and refused to do (yes, they promise, but - apart from a couple of isolated, individual examples - they don't do it). So the CADF coming out and saying,
"We've a new, more sensitive EPO test, and we're going to apply it to all samples in storage," that might help prove independence, give a lot of people comfort that the CADF really was an independent body, and not merely there to do the UCI's bidding. Defining that something in advance, it's not simple. To get like
Martial Saugy on this, it's one of those things which you'll know when you see it. Not a very good definition, but it is what it is. An objective judgement of independence is just too easy to game.
Interesting thought.
I know this was just an example out of the air, but what would be better would be any systematic plan for retroactive testing.
The problem with this example is that you may not be able to test the stored samples more than once, or at least not an infinite number of times.
Thus, you would need to know that:
- The test you have is effective
- The test is effective on retro samples
- Many in the peloton were actually using the substance that you can now test for
- There aren't newer, better tests that will be available within the 8 year period that will detect more things
A systematic plan could include:
- Test samples (e.g. Lance's six positives) to demonstrate the capability of the test on likely positives
- If confirmed, selection of older/oldest samples where a positive is likely (i.e. they were likely using the substance)
- Less testing of most recent samples (to avoid using them up)
- Survey, only, of more recent samples to determine the incidence of the PED
Anyhow, a plan for systematic retro-testing would be fantastic.
One problem, working through the outline above, is that most positives would be the oldest samples. In other words, expect a rash of doping cases that are eight years old. And, expect that on an ongoing basis.
Expect some push-back.
Dave.