Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

With two COVID-19 tests and an antibody test being negative are you sure that it's COVID and not something else? I have asthma & allergies and have gotten bad cases of bronchitis during the summer over the years. Lots of congestion, respiratory distress, slight fever, etc. I can train through it at low intensity & very easy workouts (no racing) - and it usually takes about 2-3 weeks to completely clear up.

And it is insane how many people just won't wear masks. I was watching some footage of the Trump rally and couldn't believe how many people weren't wearing masks while packed together outside at the entrance gate and later inside the arena - absolutely crazy!

I mentioned upthread that there's one fairly large municipality next to the city that I live in that passed legislation last month requiring the wearing of masks, but yet I hardly see anyone wearing them as I commute through this city daily. In doing some research on the legislation, the City Council did not add an enforcement provision because the police chief expressed how difficult it would be to enforce. So, it's nothing more than a recommendation with no power to enforce. Lol. And I see California has a state-wide mandate for masks, but some law enforcement agencies are already saying they're not going to enforce it. Unless a mask mandate will be enforced, Americans simply won't wear them.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

We're sure it's something else, but not sure exactly what. He's been to the doctor and gotten antibiotics and that didn't have much of an effect. Bronchitis may very well be what he has and if it is it's a very bad case of it. Again the two Covid tests are not because of symptoms but because he works at a hospital (Veteran's hospital) and the hospital wanted everyone tested due to one or two people having tested positive who work there. The antibody test was something our doctor wanted done due to a bad virus that was going around where I live back in February and March, however it appears whatever that was wasn't Covid. Unfortunately he's had whatever it is for about 2 months now. That's where the concern is. How to get him over it.

Exactly, if law enforcement refuses to enforce the mandates a large portion of Americans aren't going to wear the masks which is sad and we're going to continue to have major problems with the virus.

 

[Forever The Best]

Wow!! Universities better think of themselves and the " value added " from the campus experience. 100's of communities in the US are going to be completely devastated in every way university. Many students and their families are going to do some harsh college calculations.
Many communities rely on the entire economic sphere of the school..everything..markets,gas stations,bars,restaurants,hair cuts,mechanics..police,fire,health care..everything.
America better hurry the F up on safety.
if the US pushes the rushed decision of higher education into American kitchens and living rooms,kitchen table..all is lost!
Harvard and MIT will probably figure something out..but if American students and families can't clearly,crystal clear see the difference in money spent for online or in person education it's over..given everything that has unfolded, w restriction on who can study, I would say that if Covid contracts our college classes,restricts people from attending in person..many many people are going to rethink high tuition,outrageous rents and other expenses.
And w Covid threat ever present..how can universities charge the same prices for online or in person offerings?
College towns w no college students or super shrinky dink campuses will fail

Well, I'm in Turkey and the summer schools in universities will be done online, but I predict fall semester in universities will be in campus.
For instance yesterday there were 1.7 million or so people entering LGS ( Highschool Entrance Exam ). The minister of education said that it is not required to enter the exam and they can use the option of not entering ( It is ridiculous that he says that, given that you do not have a second chance in LGS the next year if you do not enter-you are automatically placed in a random awful school ) it when asked about the possible health threats of so many people entering the exam in schools.
And next week YKS ( University Entrance Exam ) will happen.
So, universities will probably be opened next semester here unless the second wave does not get too big.

 

[BlueRoads]

Off-topic but, it is utterly ridiculous that universities do not think about their students during these times. Some of the online exams of some courses do not even give students a chance to get a high grade, pathetic really. It is almost like they are trying to screw ths students, but then again, when you have a course coordinator who blames students for a postponement of the exam due to snow in the previous course ( he was the coordinator of the previous one, the prerequisite as well ) nothing is surprising anymore.

Wish you the best!
Do you have to pay for university?

 

[Oldermanish]

A neighbor is a Microsoft Cloud marketing manager that handles both business and institutional platforms. He has been inundated with follow up planning involving middle-size private colleges in the US. Most of them were fairly comfortable with the traditional campus-based system until c-19. We're also now seeing the major local businesses: Boeing, Expedia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Facebook...etc reconsidering having large commercial lease spaces. The most recent period in Seattle demonstrated they could continue business with employees working at home; less need for physical offices. This is sending a ripple through local high-rise planning and could be an international trend.
We're also seeing a sudden shift to single-family home purchases as an alternative to City livin'.

 

[Koronin]

I read today that Gilead (the makers of Remdesivir) are either starting or have just started a phase 1 clinical trial for a nasal spray version of Remdesivir. Sounds like if this is successful (even if only as successful as their original drip) this could be available as a prescription for use by people not bad enough to be in the hospital. That would be a big help.

Found an article. They aren't starting the actual trials of the inhaled version this month, they are starting their search for volunteers for phase 1. Here's the article:

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-06-22/inhaled-remdesivir-may-allow-covid-19-patients-to-be-treated-at-home

 

[djpbaltimore]

It certainly looks like testing in AZ is a disaster if this thread is to be believed. I mentioned it before, but here might be another instance of hardware being a problem. Either way, I think the outbreak in AZ might be vastly underestimated. Texas and Florida seem to have realized that masks may be the only thing that is keeping their states from lockdown, so they are (belatedly) pushing mask policy to the public. What a clownshow this continues to be.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1274450639729246209

View: https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1274450639729246209

 

[Merckx index]

Here's a summary link I think is useful. If you scroll down, you will see a table listing the average number of new daily cases over the current week, and each of the previous three weeks. The numbers are color coded, blue-ish for negative, or decreasing trend, and reddish for increasing. You can see how CA, TX, FL and AZ stand out.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Of course, cases will increase if the number of tests increase (leading to another Trump bleach moment: he said that he told his officials to reduce the number of tests so that there are fewer positives. If it had been anyone else saying this, we would assume it was a joke, albeit one in poor taste. With Trump, who knows?)

Anyway, what we really need is hospitalizations, which of course reveal the sickest people, without reference to tests. Unfortunately, it's hard to get these data daily for most states. In fact, not all states report hospitalizations, and of those that do, some report only current numbers in the hospital, some only cumulative number. Here's a link that shows these numbers for the states reporting them:

https://covidtracking.com/data

Note that in AZ, almost half of all people who have been hospitalized are currently there. That's far worse than other states. For the populous NE corridor states that had so many cases and deaths earlier, it's far less. E.g., for NY, NJ and CT, it's less than 2%.

 

[Koronin]

Here's a summary link I think is useful. If you scroll down, you will see a table listing the average number of new daily cases over the current week, and each of the previous three weeks. The numbers are color coded, blue-ish for negative, or decreasing trend, and reddish for increasing. You can see how CA, TX, FL and AZ stand out.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Of course, cases will increase if the number of tests increase (leading to another Trump bleach moment: he said that he told his officials to reduce the number of tests so that there are fewer positives. If it had been anyone else saying this, we would assume it was a joke, albeit one in poor taste. With Trump, who knows?)

Anyway, what we really need is hospitalizations, which of course reveal the sickest people, without reference to tests. Unfortunately, it's hard to get these data daily for most states. In fact, not all states report hospitalizations, and of those that do, some report only current numbers in the hospital, some only cumulative number. Here's a link that shows these numbers for the states reporting them:

https://covidtracking.com/data

Note that in AZ, almost half of all people who have been hospitalized are currently there. That's far worse than other states. For the populous NE corridor states that had so many cases and deaths earlier, it's far less. E.g., for NY, NJ and CT, it's less than 2%.

In, NC it actually appears the more testing means more cases is correct. One of our state Senators posted on Facebook an explanation of what is going on NC with several graphs to show it. Now NC's numbers aren't fully accurate as no one seems to be able to get fully accurate numbers. Figured this could be some useful information for anyone who wants it:

https://www.facebook.com/JeffJacksonNC/posts/1337207086481876

View: https://www.facebook.com/JeffJacksonNC/posts/1337207086481876?__tn__=K-R

 

[jmdirt]

Here's a summary link I think is useful. If you scroll down, you will see a table listing the average number of new daily cases over the current week, and each of the previous three weeks. The numbers are color coded, blue-ish for negative, or decreasing trend, and reddish for increasing. You can see how CA, TX, FL and AZ stand out.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Of course, cases will increase if the number of tests increase (leading to another Trump bleach moment: he said that he told his officials to reduce the number of tests so that there are fewer positives. If it had been anyone else saying this, we would assume it was a joke, albeit one in poor taste. With Trump, who knows?)

Anyway, what we really need is hospitalizations, which of course reveal the sickest people, without reference to tests. Unfortunately, it's hard to get these data daily for most states. In fact, not all states report hospitalizations, and of those that do, some report only current numbers in the hospital, some only cumulative number. Here's a link that shows these numbers for the states reporting them:

https://covidtracking.com/data

Note that in AZ, almost half of all people who have been hospitalized are currently there. That's far worse than other states. For the populous NE corridor states that had so many cases and deaths earlier, it's far less. E.g., for NY, NJ and CT, it's less than 2%.

One of the Sunday news shows (I think Chuck Todd) had a "the testing went up this much, but the cases went up this much" graphic. ie: testing up 13%, positives up 77%...not all because of more testing.

 

[Merckx index]

From Koronin's link:

Now that people are going back to hospitals for routine procedures, they’re all being tested when they arrive. And some of those folks are testing positive. So now they're in the hospital with COVID. And it’s unclear to what extent they’re being included in this hospitalization number. In short, we need to make sure we are measuring people who are hospitalized for COVID, not with COVID. But it's unclear to what extent that explains this increase, if at all.

Yes, that same point has been made for AZ, too. But the bottom line is that even if the case number is being inflated by some other factors, these still are cases. In China, a hundred new cases prompts a major response from the government. In the U.S., 20-30,000 new cases a day is greeted with, well, we're getting better--the % of total cases is decreasing. But that just means the virus isn't spreading as fast as it did before--it doesn't mean it isn't still spreading.

At one point a few weeks ago, the number of active cases in the U.S. appeared to be peaking. Since states began opening up, the active cases have increased again. Until we hit that peak, and active cases begin declining, we aren't even close to where we should be. The best case scenario seems to be a long, drawn-out period in which the spread of the virus decreases, but never stops. And that's assuming there isn't a second wave.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Places are going to differ on their covid policy, but I seriously doubt patients are being tested on arrival to the hospital for procedures. Point of care testing is not that widespread AFAIK. They are often (universally?) required to be tested beforehand and I can confirm that this is a common reason given at my partner's test center. I am dubious that 'hospitalized with covid' is that big a problem for stats. Seems more like a CYA move to people who want to massage the data. This was a common refrain about the death stats earlier. People like Brit Hume were always claiming people were dying with covid, not from it.

 

[jmdirt]

Idaho is pretty much 'open for business' but downtown Boise restaurants/bars are making the decision to close on their own because people are being irresponsible, and (nearing) 100 new cases are tied directly to downtown goers. Also two brew pubs (not downtown) have decided to go back to take out (food and growlers) for the same reason.

EDIT: Update: one more 'popular' restaurant decided that patrons weren't being safe for each other so they decided to go back to take out.

I think that unchained is correct, this is just going to be part of our existence until it runs its course (and/or kills us all).

EDIT: 6 more restaurants in Boise decided to close on their own, and Ada County (Boise, Meridian, Eagle, Kuna, Garden City, Star...~half a million people) has moved back to stage 3 because of the increase in cases so ALL bars will close again.

This is what happens when people won't distance and wear masks...it is their fault, but I bet they blame someone else.

 

[jmdirt]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbJDIFDXgAsAyQl?format=jpg&name=large

 

[movingtarget]

Plasma trial

Male survivors of Covid-19 asked to give plasma for treatment trials

Men who have fought off virus have higher levels of antibodies in their blood than women

www.theguardian.com

 

[dusty red roads]

I have a relative (female) in Oz who had a mild case awhile back, who's given plasma to be used both for testing studies and also for giving to patients, I guess there's also a plasma trial going on in Oz as well.

 

[Invicituz]

Novak Djokovic tests positive for coronavirus amid Adria Tour criticism

It comes with the Serbian star under-fire over his Adria Tour event, after which Grigor Dimitrov, Borna Coric and Viktor Troicki all tested positive for Covid-19

www.mirror.co.uk

 

[djpbaltimore]

Wasn't Novak critical of the restrictions that the US Open wanted institute to prevent transmission? I guess he wanted to run a tourney with his own rules and look how that turned out. Pure hubris.

 

[hrotha]

Wasn't Novak critical of the restrictions that the US Open wanted institute to prevent transmission? I guess he wanted to run a tourney with his own rules and look how that turned out. Pure hubris.

I guess they don't call him Novaxx Djocovid for nothing.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

(leading to another Trump bleach moment: he said that he told his officials to reduce the number of tests so that there are fewer positives. If it had been anyone else saying this, we would assume it was a joke, albeit one in poor taste. With Trump, who knows?)

So this is political and it doesn't belong here.

You can see how CA, TX, FL and AZ stand out.

I don't know/haven't looked at other States but here in California the testing is way up. Gov Newsom's goal was 60k tests per day and we have averaged significantly more than that since June 1. Both ICU and hospitalizations due to C19 have remained stable since April. The daily death count (raw number of dead attributed to C19) peaked in late April and is on a steady downward trajectory (since the peak). LA County alone accounts for about 44% of the new positives. Nearly 80% of the dead are 65 or older and 80+ account for 45% of all deaths in Cali C19 related. Half of the dead contracted C19 while in skilled nursing.

Anyway, what we really need is hospitalizations, which of course reveal the sickest people, without reference to tests. Unfortunately, it's hard to get these data daily for most states.

Not in California.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/california-coronavirus-cases-tracking-outbreak/

 

[djpbaltimore]

Merckx is right about AZ though. It has gone from 818 hospitalizations on Memorial Day to 2136 now. It just set the daily case record of 3591 cases on Tuesday, too. Given how long it is taking for them to turn tests around, the next week is almost guaranteed to be terrible as the backlog is worked through. Florida is doing shady things with their state hospitalization data, but local data is indicating a surge in hospitalizations. There is a pretty good reason that testing is up in those states. Demand due to worsening outbreaks. The positive rate increases are the other huge red flag.

You do not want your state hospitalizations to look like a stage in the Vuelta.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275465932341751808

View: https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1275465932341751808

 

[Koronin]

Merckx is right about AZ though. It has gone from 818 hospitalizations on Memorial Day to 2136 now. It just set the daily case record of 3591 cases on Tuesday, too. Given how long it is taking for them to turn tests around, the next week is almost guaranteed to be terrible as the backlog is worked through. Florida is doing shady things with their state hospitalization data, but local data is indicating a surge in hospitalizations. There is a pretty good reason that testing is up in those states. Demand due to worsening outbreaks. The positive rate increases are the other huge red flag.

You do not want your state hospitalizations to look like a stage in the Vuelta.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275465932341751808

View: https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1275465932341751808

No, you don't want that at all.

 

[Forever The Best]

Wish you the best!
Do you have to pay for university?

Yes but I have scholarship so I pay more for dormitory than for education fee. But I may change my university to a state university this summer ( where I won't pay money and won't have to be in dormitory either since it is in the city where I live ).
I am stuck between studying in another city ( Ankara ) or studying in the city where I normally live ( Istanbul ).
Both universities are very good for Turkey's standards though so that makes me feel a bit more relaxed about making a decision.

 

[Jagartrott]

Merckx is right about AZ though. It has gone from 818 hospitalizations on Memorial Day to 2136 now. It just set the daily case record of 3591 cases on Tuesday, too. Given how long it is taking for them to turn tests around, the next week is almost guaranteed to be terrible as the backlog is worked through. Florida is doing shady things with their state hospitalization data, but local data is indicating a surge in hospitalizations. There is a pretty good reason that testing is up in those states. Demand due to worsening outbreaks. The positive rate increases are the other huge red flag.

You do not want your state hospitalizations to look like a stage in the Vuelta.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1275465932341751808

View: https://twitter.com/StevenTDennis/status/1275465932341751808

How is it possible to be over two months behind the curve of Europe, with all that is known?
By the way, all those airconditioned rooms... perfect places for corona to stick around and spread.

 

[Koronin]

Here's an interesting article about a current vaccine that may actually be giving partial immunity to Covid currently. It appears people who have recently had the MMR vaccine and do get Covid have milder cases of it. Here's the article:

MMR Booster Could Protect Covid Patients From Worst Symptoms Of The Disease

MMR Booster Could Protect Covid Patients From Worst Symptoms Of The Disease

www.iflscience.com

 

[Jagartrott]

By the way, a direct result of the above:

The European Union is looking to soon reopen its borders, and it is reportedly considering denying entry to Americans because of how the US has handled the coronavirus pandemic.

The New York Timess reports:

That prospect, which would lump American visitors in with Russians and Brazilians as unwelcome, is a stinging blow to American prestige in the world and a repudiation of President Trump’s handling of the virus in the United States, which has more than 2.3 million cases and upward of 120,000 deaths, more than any other country.
European nations are currently haggling over two potential lists of acceptable visitors based on how countries are faring with the coronavirus pandemic. Both include China, as well as developing nations like Uganda, Cuba and Vietnam.
Travelers from the United States and the rest of the world have been excluded from visiting the European Union — with few exceptions mostly for repatriations or ‘essential travel’ —- since mid-March. But a final decision on reopening the borders is expected early next week, before the bloc reopens on July 1.