Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Most people don't think they are doing anything malicious but, inevitably, risky decisions made in the aggregate will yield adverse results. The friends at the bar by all acounts sound like they wanted to let off some steam. But it is incumbent on the people in charge to allow people better routes to do this. A lot of businesses in my area are constructing patio type arrangements even though some indoor seating is now being allowed. And to-go cocktails have been popular new laws. Summer is the time where we should be gaining ground on the virus. Instead, it looks like it is slipping from our grasp again. If we go back to acting like it is early March, it is going to get really bad even with the new therapeutics.

View: https://twitter.com/jeffjarvis/status/1273245962820030465
 
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A problem with having an event like that outdoors in OK is that it is blazing hot in afternoon with the omnipresent threat of Thundershowers this time of year. I am also interested in how you can manage temperature checks after people have spent hours in queues in the sun on a concrete frying pan waiting to get inside. IME, OK is one of the worst places because there is so little shade. Not requiring masks for any large gathering inside is criminal.

View: https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1272909442527506433
https://www.idahostatesman.com/news/coronavirus/article243582657.html
 
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In Turkey, many of the restrictions were lifted a few weeks ago, and the official numbers tell an increase in number of cases again. Many people are acting as if they were in normal conditions. But then again we don't have the economy to enforce a lockdown for a long time ( as I said before ).
By the way, staying at home all the time is not the best psychologically. I wish you the best in these hard times, wherever you are.
 
It just goes to show that there are places where the virus can spread in just about any community in this country. Another case in point.

View: https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1273599328787894272


I'm sure that they didn't think that they were endangering people with the wedding or graduation ceremonies. Living in an out of the way place may protect you, but that is no guarantee. I think the fact that NYC was hit the worst sent out some of the wrong messages to people.
 
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In Turkey, many of the restrictions were lifted a few weeks ago, and the official numbers tell an increase in number of cases again. Many people are acting as if they were in normal conditions. But then again we don't have the economy to enforce a lockdown for a long time ( as I said before ).
By the way, staying at home all the time is not the best psychologically. I wish you the best in these hard times, wherever you are.
Are/were you completely "locked down" (can't leave your house)? I'm lucky that here in Idaho USA our stay at home order kept me from going to the Y and out to eat, but I was still able to ride my mountain bike and walk the dog.

It has been mentally taxing for sure, even going to the grocery store is more stressful. I look forward to the day when we can look back and say remember 2020?!
 
Alabama is not looking good at all. Reports of ICUs filling up and still very little policy put forth to stop the spread. It is like watching a game of chicken. Hospitalizations lag so much that the next 2-3 weeks are practically baked in already. Texas is moving in this direction too, hopefully people are learning the right lessons. Oklahoma this weekend could be very problematic as well.

View: https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1273615918065684480
 
Are/were you completely "locked down" (can't leave your house)? I'm lucky that here in Idaho USA our stay at home order kept me from going to the Y and out to eat, but I was still able to ride my mountain bike and walk the dog.

It has been mentally taxing for sure, even going to the grocery store is more stressful. I look forward to the day when we can look back and say remember 2020?!
For a couple weeks, yes it was like that, with only being allowed to be outside for 1-2 hours or so a week ( and I generally had online courses that time ). But in the last 2 weeks or so I can leave my house anytime I want, but I stay in my house except for visiting a relative.
 
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It just goes to show that there are places where the virus can spread in just about any community in this country. Another case in point.

View: https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/1273599328787894272


I'm sure that they didn't think that they were endangering people with the wedding or graduation ceremonies. Living in an out of the way place may protect you, but that is no guarantee. I think the fact that NYC was hit the worst sent out some of the wrong messages to people.
More times than not they echo some reassuring sentiment along the lines: "God's will.....protected by faith"
While in their mind and some eternal reality it may be true; the rest of us get to find out what it's like to meet one of the faithful that's asymptomatic.
 
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Are/were you completely "locked down" (can't leave your house)? I'm lucky that here in Idaho USA our stay at home order kept me from going to the Y and out to eat, but I was still able to ride my mountain bike and walk the dog.

It has been mentally taxing for sure, even going to the grocery store is more stressful. I look forward to the day when we can look back and say remember 2020?!
Same here in Seattle. We can ride but you'd want to be within a distance to call a family member for any pick-up duties. The constant demonstrations on Capital Hill in downtown Seattle are a bomb we'll feel in the next weeks...

Checked out of the stock market before that last little bounce down. It may be a long, flat recovery with more cases.
 
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Two cities in NC have issued mandates that requires face coverings be worn in public spaces. The two cities are Raleigh and Boone. (I suspect more to follow). Today California issued a mandate for face coverings in indoor public spaces and in outdoor public spacers where social distancing isn't possible.
 
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Sorry that it is only in Flemish, but google Translator works well here:
news1
news2
Its about a study of 1600 Covid patients in Netherlands and Belgium who were not in hospital. So they only looked at "mild" cases. After 3 months only 7% say that they have fully recovered, 27% say they still are in poor health!
Patients mainly complained of fatigue (86 percent), shortness of breath (53 percent), headache (41 percent), muscle pain (40 percent) and chest pressure (36 percent).
As many as 90 percent of those surveyed say they experience problems with daily activities, 70 percent even experience problems when walking, the study shows.
I would guess that there is a sampling bias. However long term impact of Covid 19 seems to be a real problem.
 
In Australia restrictions have been easing in recent weeks, though it seems that there is no chance of international travel until next year, except for to/from New Zealand (in about October).

Cafe's/restaurants are running at about 50% capacity now. Still no 'clubbing' aspect to bars for the foreseeable future.

Football is being played again, with limited crowds at some stadiums. 10 or 20,000 people to be allowed at games in a few weeks time if the virus is still under control.

In Victoria we had 18 new cases of Covid the other day, although many of these are returning travellers from overseas. The key seems to be whether there will be any outbreaks and second wave in the next few weeks (which is probably a 50/50).
 
In case no one noticed, COVID-19 liability waivers are becoming a big thing. People attending Trumps's Tulsa rally have to sign one, and many high school and college student athletes returning for practices are also being required to do so. Schools are very worried that someone getting infected and maybe developing a serious case will file a lawsuit against them.

I would guess that there is a sampling bias. However long term impact of Covid 19 seems to be a real problem.
Yeah, these people were self-selected through a facebook page, but still, about 1500 people in the Netherlands. The link says some of these patients have experienced symptoms up to three months after they first emerged. Three months ago, there were only about 2500 confirmed cases in the Netherlands. Let's assume that on average, the patients have experienced symptoms for two months. There were about 30,000 confirmed cases in the Netherlands about two months ago, and an antibody study at about that time suggested that about 470,000 people had been infected. So these people represent about 0.3% of the infected individuals.

That's not really high, but If these people are examples of other "long-termers" that have been reported, they are relatively young. A rate of 0.3% is about midway between the mortality rates the antibody studies in the Netherlands found for people in the age 50-59 group (about 0.1%), and 60-69 (about 0.5%). So if we're talking about relatively young people, they're at as much risk for a very serious condition as people around 60 are for dying. That's something to be concerned about. And while these people may have been self-selected, we don't know how many more of them there are who have not identified themselves. The number could easily be double, in which case the rate could approach what the overall mortality rate for C19 is thought to be.
 
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In case no one noticed, COVID-19 liability waivers are becoming a big thing. People attending Trumps's Tulsa rally have to sign one, and many high school student athletes returning for practices are also being required to do so. Schools are very worried that someone getting infected and maybe developing a serious case will file a lawsuit against them.
What happens if I don't attend the rally but I am demonstrably infected by someone who did?
 
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It's good that this gets some attention, but the methodology of going to facebook groups of "long-termers" and then reporting that many of those suffer from long-term effects... erm...
I agree, but it is interesting to hear how many people are still exhausted after 30, 60, 90 days. I'm glad Merckx did some math for us, but I don't look at it scientifically as much as, "wow, 1500 people are still feeling tired".

One of our team leader's son got C19 in early March (the first person I actually knew), and he is still low on energy (24 years old, runner, weight lifter...healthy guy).
 
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Speaking of Florida - this is not good: More younger patients in their late 20s - 40 yr range are being hospitalized.

 
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Apparently a Blue Jay player who had interactions with the Phillie players is suspected of having Coronavirus and they have closed their facility. The Tampa hockey team is also closing their facility after an outbreak among players and staff. Florida is the canary in the coal mine. If we fail to heed the warning, we have no one to blame but ourselves. It is not going to go away on its own and a return to normalcy is not remotely possible.
 
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Covid-19 was in Italy already in '19.
It seems that the virus first spread rather silently (under the younger, healthier population), then when alarm was raised (after it reaches the older population), it was already everywhere. Which is somewhat good news, because it also implies the virus is not very contagious, it can just move silently. But with more testing, new outbreaks could be found more easily now, avoiding a repeat of the initial wide spread.

Italy: Covid-19 was present in two big cities two months before first case was detected

The coronavirus was present in two large Italian cities in December, more than two months before the first case was detected, a national health institute study of waste water has found.
That suggests the virus appeared in Italy around the same time it was first reported in China.
Researchers discovered genetic traces of Sars-CoV-2 - as the virus is officially known - in samples of waste water collected in Milan and Turin at the end of last year, and Bologna in January, the ISS institute said in a statement seen by AFP on Friday.
Italy’s first known native case was discovered mid-February.
The results “help to understand the start of the circulation of the virus in Italy,” the ISS said.
They also “confirm the by-now consolidated international evidence” as to the strategic function of sewer samples as an early detection tool, it added.
The results feed into an effort by scientists around the world to trace the virus’s family tree.
 
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How sound is that study? I remember there was talk about Covid-19 tests potentially picking up other coronaviruses. Would that be possible here? I dunno, December sounds pretty extreme, and I'm not sure its not being very contagious would explain the later data.
 

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