Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/lipiro...e-curb-the-coronavirus-pandemic/#63e54166332a



A research article on the concept:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32437659/?from_term=polio+vaccine+SARS&from_pos=4

Thanks. It's an interesting idea.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Robert Gallo is being interviewed by our university president this afternoon about this. Here is the article he and colleagues wrote about it. I think all the covid stuff is open access from science. If the talk is interesting, I will see if I can link to it. They usually get posted to youtube. The vaccination would have to be almost universal and practically synchronous to work, so color me skeptical that we could pull together and manage this task given recent history.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6496/1187

ETA. It seems like it is open to the public.

https://calendar.umaryland.edu/?subcategory=University AdministrationVirtual Face to Face with Dr. Bruce Jarrell&view=fulltext&month=06&day=15&year=2020&id=d.en.477873&timestamp=1592244000&

 

[jmdirt]

At this point, people should get the best masks they can get.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1272187720379572226

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1272187720379572226

I brought this up a few times now, but my hesitation is buying masks that healthcare workers need. Are the stockpiles full?

 

[djpbaltimore]

There is still a concerted strategy to limit the burn rate at the level of the health care worker. Whether that is due to actual shortages or to build the stockpiles is unclear to me. If cases spiked again, I think there would be issues, but if you can find one commercially now, I would buy it. Or wait till the end of summer, which is when Gottlieb suggested that production would be higher. Personally, I don't interact with enough people in situations that don't allow social distancing, so I am not going to buy one.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1272555967415291906

View: https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1272555967415291906

 

[Oldermanish]

In the US we are now hearing the reluctance from many sides to consider re- closures; in spite of surges in hospitalizations and deaths. Mnuchin is suggesting the economic consequences could be much worse.
The issue is now so politicized that each side's election strategy is banking on failure. Not feeling too good about this.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I wonder what percentage of people in the USA would be in favor of stopping testing people for COVID-19. All joking aside, it is probably higher than we think.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1272566797452140545

View: https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1272566797452140545

 

[jmdirt]

There is still a concerted strategy to limit the burn rate at the level of the health care worker. Whether that is due to actual shortages or to build the stockpiles is unclear to me. If cases spiked again, I think there would be issues, but if you can find one commercially now, I would buy it. Or wait till the end of summer, which is when Gottlieb suggested that production would be higher. Personally, I don't interact with enough people in situations that don't allow social distancing, so I am not going to buy one.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1272555967415291906

View: https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1272555967415291906

Me either for now. When I first started thinking about this in May, I was going to be back in the building for work on June 1. That has be pushed back to Aug 3. I've been sampling around with a few different cloth covers for shopping use, but when I get stuck back with 700 other people in one building, I want N95 I think.

Related to that, I sure hope that our HVAC system is 'safe', but I bet that its the cheapest that money can buy.

 

[Oldermanish]

I wonder what percentage of people in the USA would be in favor of stopping testing people for COVID-19. All joking aside, it is probably higher than we think.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1272566797452140545

View: https://twitter.com/TheOnion/status/1272566797452140545

Hey, those folks look like they're healthy, active lifestyle will protect them.

 

[Koronin]

In the US we are now hearing the reluctance from many sides to consider re- closures; in spite of surges in hospitalizations and deaths. Mnuchin is suggesting the economic consequences could be much worse.
The issue is now so politicized that each side's election strategy is banking on failure. Not feeling too good about this.

Keep your fingers crossed that the trial Regeneron has just started of a treatment with lab created antibodies works as well as their similar treatment for Ebola. If their Covid version works the lock downs basically did their job of buying time for this treatment to be developed. They said from the when they started working on it that it would start trials in June and it has. As long as it does work it sounds like it's easier to manufacture than Remdesivir is.

 

[movingtarget]

Lung damage

Covid-19 can damage lungs of victims beyond recognition, expert says

Organs of some who die after over a month in hospital sustain ‘complete disruption’, peers told

www.theguardian.com

 

[Merckx index]

An article coming down hard on C19 predictions and models. The primary author, John Ioannidis, was one of the researchers who published the California antibody studies, which concluded that something like 50-85 times as many people are infected as confirmed cases indicate. He's used that study, and some others (which I critiqued upthread), to argue that mortality rates for C19 are very low, and for that and other reasons, has also argued against many of the restrictive measures taken in the pandemic.

COVID-19 is a major acute crisis with unpredictable consequences. Many scientists have struggled to make forecasts about its impact [1]. However, despite involving many excellent modelers, best intentions, and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed.

Experienced modelers drew early on parallels between COVID-19 and the Spanish flu [2] that caused >50 million deaths with mean age at death being 28. We all lament the current loss of life. However, as of June 8, total fatalities are ~410,000 with median age ~80 and typically multiple comorbidities.

Predictions for hospital and ICU bed requirements were also entirely misinforming. Public leaders trusted models (sometimes even black boxes without disclosed methodology) inferring massively overwhelmed health care capacity (Table 1) [3]. However, eventually very few hospitals were stressed, for a couple of weeks. Most hospitals maintained largely empty wards, waiting for tsunamis that never came. The general population was locked and placed in horror-alert to save the health system from collapsing. Tragically, many health systems faced major adverse consequences, not by COVID-19 cases overload, but for very different reasons. Patients with heart attacks avoided visiting hospitals for care [4], important treatments (e.g. for cancer) were unjustifiably delayed [5], mental health suffered [6]. With damaged operations, many hospitals started losing personnel, reducing capacity to face future crises (e.g. a second wave). With massive new unemployment, more people may lose health insurance. The prospects of starvation and of lack of control for other infectious diseases (like tuberculosis, malaria, and childhood communicable diseases for which vaccination is hindered by the COVID-19 measures) are dire [7,8].

Modeling resurgence after reopening also failed. E.g. a Massachusetts General Hospital model [9] predicted over 23,000 deaths within a month of Georgia reopening. The actual number was only 896...Even for short-term forecasting when the epidemic wave has waned, models presented confusingly diverse predictions with huge uncertainty

erroneous predictions may have been even useful. A wrong, doomsday prediction may incentivize people towards better personal hygiene. Problems start when public leaders take (wrong) predictions too seriously,

we have little evidence that aggressive measures which focus only on few dimensions of impact actually reduce death toll and do more good than harm. We need models which incorporate multicriteria objective functions. Isolating infectious impact, from all other health, economy and social impacts is dangerously narrow-minded. More importantly, with epidemics becoming easier to detect, opportunities for declaring global emergencies will escalate. Erroneous models can become powerful, recurrent disruptors of life on this planet. Civilization is threatened from [faulty models]

Tens of millions of outbreaks with [only] a couple deaths must have happened throughout time. Probably hundreds of thousands might have claimed [no more than] dozens of fatalities. Thousands of outbreaks might have [just] exceeded 1,000 fatalities. Most eluded the historical record. The four garden variety coronaviruses may be causing such outbreaks every year [15,16]. One of them, OC43 seems to have been introduced in humans as recently as 1890, probably causing a “bad influenza year” with over a million deaths [17]. Based on what we know now, SARS-CoV-2 may be closer to OC43 than SARS-CoV-1. This does not mean it is not serious: its initial human introduction can be highly lethal, unless we protect those at risk.

https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed/

I think this paper makes some good points. There have been enormous differences in predictions made by various models, which by themselves illustrate the uncertainties involved. The authors delineate steps to be taken to reduce some of these uncertainties, while acknowledging that in some cases, the uncertainties are inherent; there's nothing we can do about them. But the authors then go on to argue against lockdowns:

we have little evidence that aggressive measures which focus only on few dimensions of impact actually reduce death toll and do more good than harm.

There's actually quite a bit of evidence that lockdowns do work. One can certainly question whether their negative effects on the economy, and on human psychology in general, reduce a lot of the net benefits, to the point where maybe the lockdowns don't do as much as expected, but no one should be questioning that a lot of lives have been. saved by restrictive measures.

One point that I think lockdown critics (and even some of those in favor of lockdowns) have consistently missed is that timing is critical. Countries that locked down early had fewer cases to deal with, and thus could end the lockdowns sooner, with less economic impact. In contrast, countries such as the U.S., and most of the most populous W. European nations, started lockdowns relatively late, with the result that the number of cases had grown so large that even long periods of restrictive measures have been insufficient to stop the spread of the virus entirely. When you couple the latter with less aggressive testing early, and little or no contact tracing, you get a situation where after months of public sacrifice, the cases and deaths continue to mount, albeit at a rate lower than at the peak of the pandemic.

Teasing out the benefits of restrictive measures is also difficult because even when governments ease up and begin opening the economy, most people remain cautious. The fact that cases, deaths and/or hospitalizations haven't spiked in a lot of U.S. states that have re-opened doesn't prove that the lockdowns were unnecessary. Numerous polls, and just common observation, confirm that most people have started to take for granted some forms of beneficial behavior, like wearing face masks in public, frequently sanitizing hands, and reducing if not avoiding close contact with others, particularly in large groups. Virtually no one did any of these things a few months ago. Of course that has to make a difference.

 

[Oldermanish]

An article coming down hard on C19 predictions and models. The primary author, John Ioannidis, was one of the researchers who published the California antibody studies, which concluded that something like 50-85 times as many people are infected as confirmed cases indicate. He's used that study, and some others (which I critiqued upthread), to argue that mortality rates for C19 are very low, and for that and other reasons, has also argued against many of the restrictive measures taken in the pandemic.











https://forecasters.org/blog/2020/06/14/forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed/

I think this paper makes some good points. There have been enormous differences in predictions made by various models, which by themselves illustrate the uncertainties involved. The authors delineate steps to be taken to reduce some of these uncertainties, while acknowledging that in some cases, the uncertainties are inherent; there's nothing we can do about them. But the authors then go on to argue against lockdowns:



There's actually quite a bit of evidence that lockdowns do work. One can certainly question whether their negative effects on the economy, and on human psychology in general, reduce a lot of the net benefits, to the point where maybe the lockdowns don't do as much as expected, but no one should be questioning that a lot of lives have been. saved by restrictive measures.

One point that I think lockdown critics (and even some of those in favor of lockdowns) have consistently missed is that timing is critical. Countries that locked down early had fewer cases to deal with, and thus could end the lockdowns sooner, with less economic impact. In contrast, countries such as the U.S., and most of the most populous W. European nations, started lockdowns relatively late, with the result that the number of cases had grown so large that even long periods of restrictive measures have been insufficient to stop the spread of the virus entirely. When you couple the latter with less aggressive testing early, and little or no contact tracing, you get a situation where after months of public sacrifice, the cases and deaths continue to mount, albeit at a rate lower than at the peak of the pandemic.

Teasing out the benefits of restrictive measures is also difficult because even when governments ease up and begin opening the economy, most people remain cautious. The fact that cases, deaths and/or hospitalizations haven't spiked in a lot of U.S. states that have re-opened doesn't prove that the lockdowns were unnecessary. Numerous polls, and just common observation, confirm that most people have started to take for granted some forms of beneficial behavior, like wearing face masks in public, frequently sanitizing hands, and reducing if not avoiding close contact with others, particularly in large groups. Virtually no one did any of these things a few months ago. Of course that has to make a difference.

While many are pursuing a common-sense approach to self-protection there are enough US citizens approaching future infection as though it is a personal test of their courage, convictions and party affiliation. We'll see if the pending scheduled rally occurs in Tulsa and how it impacts the attendees. The message is clear that all involved in the rally feel empowered to participate in spite of consequences. It's an incredibly self-serving political circumstance that, separate of the event; invites behavior that will jeopardize other cautions.
The US and Brazil have some common governance and that is not reassuring to many.

 

[dusty red roads]

This looks very promising, dexamethasone, a cheap steroid which has been in trial since March is apparently preventing significant numbers of deaths:

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug

Patients should be given the cheap drug without delay, after "fantastic" trial results, experts say.

www.bbc.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

Fantastic might be a stretch, but it is encouraging and shows that many people on ventilators are being killed by their own immune responses rather than directly by the virus. There are a host of trials looking at this aspect and I think there will be more options by fall. For instance, the actemra study targeting IL-6 was promising in France. The cheapness of dexamethasone will likely help the developing world quite a bit.

 

[Nomad]

While many are pursuing a common-sense approach to self-protection there are enough US citizens approaching future infection as though it is a personal test of their courage, convictions and party affiliation. We'll see if the pending scheduled rally occurs in Tulsa and how it impacts the attendees. The message is clear that all involved in the rally feel empowered to participate in spite of consequences. It's an incredibly self-serving political circumstance that, separate of the event; invites behavior that will jeopardize other cautions.
The US and Brazil have some common governance and that is not reassuring to many.

Yep...the BOK center in Tulsa is completely sold out (19,199 capicity). They say they're going to perform temp checks and hand out masks but not requiring them to be worn. However, due to the 1 million requests for tickets, the govenor is looking for an outdoor venue (Skelly Field where the UT football team plays seats 30,000).

Weiterleitungshinweis

And getting back to masks & social distancing - I'm not seeing compliance with many people anymore where I live (Western U.S.). Sadly, I'm observing many middle-aged and elderly (a lot of them obese/overweight and not very healthy looking - the highest risk group) violating social distancing with many also not wearing masks. They're in groups hanging out at picnic benches & the parking lots of the open space park that I run at several times a week. At a health food store where I shop at not many bother to wear masks either. At a local Walmart the other day during busy evening hours, I observed about 50% or so not wearing masks. Out of this group were quite a few elderly and hardly any teenagers were wearing a mask. In fact, there was an obese senior citizen in a scooter with oxygen not wearing a mask! I thought WTH? Here I am wearing my mask and trying to do my part and yet some of these high-risk people don't seem to give a "you know what."

And these are the same people who if they get infected and need hospitalization will complain that they're not being "protected." I've talked with some these people before - their belief is that they expect the government to protect them and guarantee that they won't get infected during this pandemic. So much for personal responsibility.

I think a lot people in the U.S. have simply given up on masks and any adherence to social distancing. Some of it may be the hot summer temperatures. There's one fairly large municipality (120,000) next to the city that I live in that passed legislation last month requiring the wearing of masks. I drive through this city a lot and you could have fooled me - hardly anyone is wearing masks! Lol. And there's absolutely no social distancing and quite a few not wearing masks at all these police brutality protests/marches. The government can preach to them all they want and they're not going to listen - protesting is more important to them. And with all the protests going on almost daily these days, it could be a long hot summer of large gatherings and less people wearing masks.

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[djpbaltimore]

A problem with having an event like that outdoors in OK is that it is blazing hot in afternoon with the omnipresent threat of Thundershowers this time of year. I am also interested in how you can manage temperature checks after people have spent hours in queues in the sun on a concrete frying pan waiting to get inside. IME, OK is one of the worst places because there is so little shade. Not requiring masks for any large gathering inside is criminal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1272909442527506433

View: https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1272909442527506433

 

[Oldermanish]

A problem with having an event like that outdoors in OK is that it is blazing hot in afternoon with the omnipresent threat of Thundershowers this time of year. I am also interested in how you can manage temperature checks after people have spent hours in queues in the sun on a concrete frying pan waiting to get inside. IME, OK is one of the worst places because there is so little shade. Not requiring masks for any large gathering inside is criminal.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1272909442527506433

View: https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1272909442527506433

yeah, you can't be this stupid by yourself. 15 friends at an Irish Bar...sounds like a setup for a bad joke.

 

[jmdirt]

Yep...the BOK center in Tulsa is completely sold out (19,199 capicity). They say they're going to perform temp checks and hand out masks but not requiring them to be worn. However, due to the 1 million requests for tickets, the govenor is looking for an outdoor venue (Skelly Field where the UT football team plays seats 30,000).

Weiterleitungshinweis

And getting back to masks & social distancing - I'm not seeing compliance with many people anymore where I live (Western U.S.). Sadly, I'm observing many middle-aged and elderly (a lot of them obese/overweight and not very healthy looking - the highest risk group) violating social distancing with many also not wearing masks. They're in groups hanging out at picnic benches & the parking lots of the open space park that I run at several times a week. At a health food store where I shop at not many bother to wear masks either. At a local Walmart the other day during busy evening hours, I observed about 50% or so not wearing masks. Out of this group were quite a few elderly and hardly any teenagers were wearing a mask. In fact, there was an obese senior citizen in a scooter with oxygen not wearing a mask! I thought WTH? Here I am wearing my mask and trying to do my part and yet some of these high-risk people don't seem to give a "you know what."

And these are the same people who if they get infected and need hospitalization will complain that they're not being "protected." I've talked with some these people before - their belief is that they expect the government to protect them and guarantee that they won't get infected during this pandemic. So much for personal responsibility.

I think a lot people in the U.S. have simply given up on masks and any adherence to social distancing. Some of it may be the hot summer temperatures. There's one fairly large municipality (120,000) next to the city that I live in that passed legislation last month requiring the wearing of masks. I drive through this city a lot and you could have fooled me - hardly anyone is wearing masks! Lol. And there's absolutely no social distancing and quite a few not wearing masks at all these police brutality protests/marches. The government can preach to them all they want and they're not going to listen - protesting is more important to them. And with all the protests going on almost daily these days, it could be a long hot summer of large gatherings and less people wearing masks.

Weiterleitungshinweis

I've been ranting about face coverings for two+ months, and even on here I still get resistance.

WalMart: I'm shocked that 50% were wearing masks.

I decided that I am going to avoid people. The only public things that I've done since mid March are grocery shopping every other week (50% masks), one trip to my LBS (broken shifter) (50% masks), and two trips to home depot (20% masks, but easier to distance). I ride dirt everyday, and work in my yard/garage. I always wear a face covering, keep space around me, and use lots of hand sani, and disinfectant wipes when I'm out.

The challenge comes when I'm expected to be back in the building at some point (set for Aug. 3 at this point).

 

[Koronin]

This looks very promising, dexamethasone, a cheap steroid which has been in trial since March is apparently preventing significant numbers of deaths:

Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug

Patients should be given the cheap drug without delay, after "fantastic" trial results, experts say.

www.bbc.com

Sounds like this is helpful. However it appears to only help once a person needs oxygen or a ventilator. However, it's still sounds helpful. Just as Remdsivir is a part of what is needed to help combat Covid this appears to be the next piece to help.

 

[yaco]

Singapore is an interesting test case - OVer 40,000 cases with around 35 to 36K in the migrant worker community, YET only 26 dead and 4 in ICU - According to friends in Singapore the virus which swept the migrant worker community has caused nearly all to be asymptomatic or suffer the mildest of symptoms.

 

[Merckx index]

Study finds that people under 20 only half as susceptible to infection as older people. Also, that about 80% of the under 20 cohort are asymptomatic, vs. 30% for over 70. This appears to be one of the first studies to validate the claim that young people are more likely to be asymptomatic:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/he...ract-coronavirus-study/ar-BB15yP7R?li=BBnb7Kz

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0962-9

 

[Jagartrott]

Singapore is an interesting test case - OVer 40,000 cases with around 35 to 36K in the migrant worker community, YET only 26 dead and 4 in ICU - According to friends in Singapore the virus which swept the migrant worker community has caused nearly all to be asymptomatic or suffer the mildest of symptoms.

I guess that almost all of these workers would be younger than 50, and likely very few would be overweight.

 

[djpbaltimore]

If you are wondering why the USA can't control the outbreak, find Aubrey Huff's clip on social media. It is our national failure in its most distilled form.

 

[jmdirt]

If you are wondering why the USA can't control the outbreak, find Aubrey Huff's clip on social media. It is our national failure in its most distilled form.

Huff is an idiot...but he's not alone. I'm going to pass on looking for his clip for now.

 

[Oldermanish]

yeah, you can't be this stupid by yourself. 15 friends at an Irish Bar...sounds like a setup for a bad joke.

To their credit the group in question at least owned up to their "stupidity" and warned others to avoid the same fate. Apparently others at the bar contacted them and expressed the same sentiment. Most of them apparently did get ill, though none severely.