Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

This is very interesting:

A sampling study in a Dutch hospital, where 301 employees were tested - none of which had travelled to a risk zone, and none of which had contact (as far as they knew) with a corona patient - revealed that 28 were infected with covid-19. They tested any employee with cold-like symptoms.

This to me indicates that the infection is widespread, probably all over Europe. It also indicates that the mortality numbers are (much) lower than would seem. The danger - and I guess this happened in Italy - happens when the 'wave' reaches the old and weak, then you end up with a lot of people in hospital, they get overwhelmed, and then the situation is out of control. Slow down spreading of the disease is essential - destroying it (like the Chinese told the public they would) is simply not possible anymore. Therefore, measures should probably focus especially on protecting the old and weak. The others could probably help by working as much as possible from home and generally avoiding 'stupid' behaviour (stop shaking hands etc.). But not that much more - we have to accept that it is there.

Kirkland, Washington too. There is already talk about limiting nursing home visitation in the wake of this. Probably a mitigation step that is necessary, but I don't know if that is sufficient. Workers still come and go. I also echo what you posted earlier. All of these things feel so reactionary and random. After SARs, swine flu, Ebola, Zika.... where is the institutional preparedness. I would look to S. Korea and do what they have done. They seemed to have bent the curve in recent days.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1237422616950046720

View: https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1237422616950046720

 

[Red Rick]

This is very interesting:

A sampling study in a Dutch hospital, where 301 employees were tested - none of which had travelled to a risk zone, and none of which had contact (as far as they knew) with a corona patient - revealed that 28 were infected with covid-19. They tested any employee with cold-like symptoms.

This to me indicates that the infection is widespread, probably all over Europe. It also indicates that the mortality numbers are (much) lower than would seem. The danger - and I guess this happened in Italy - happens when the 'wave' reaches the old and weak, then you end up with a lot of people in hospital, they get overwhelmed, and then the situation is out of control. Slow down spreading of the disease is essential - destroying it (like the Chinese told the public they would) is simply not possible anymore. Therefore, measures should probably focus especially on protecting the old and weak. The others could probably help by working as much as possible from home and generally avoiding 'stupid' behaviour (stop shaking hands etc.). But not that much more - we have to accept that it is there.

Heared a story of a doctor in Breda who had been to Northern Italy, come home, felt sick, got tested, then got called into work before the result came back positive.

We are lax as fuuuuuck

 

[Jagartrott]

Why did he go then? We also have a personal responsibility. If you're ill, you shouldn't come to work anyway.

 

[Red Rick]

Why did he go then? We also have a personal responsibility. If you're ill, you shouldn't come to work anyway.

Cause the boss said so

 

[Koronin]

In NY they have "closed" a suburb of NYC. However, people can still come and go from that area. Apparently what it means is schools and large gathering places are closed for thorough cleaning. The Governor was also saying that it is suspected the virus has been there for awhile and as they haven't exactly been doing much testing (for multiple reasons) he suspects there is likely a large number of people who have already had and recovered from it without ever knowing they had it in the first place.

 

[Nirvana]

135 deaths in Lombardia alone today, other data it's not reliable because they had problems with the testing lab.

 

[Merckx index]

The Philippines cases are starting to take off. Does not support the hot-humid suppression of spread theory. But see below.

1- CORONAVIRUS health

1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasize enough - drink plenty of water!

THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days

2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further
.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.

4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.

1) Latex or nitrile latex disposable gloves for use when going shopping, using the gasoline pump, and all other outside activity when you come in contact with contaminated areas.
Note: This virus is spread in large droplets by coughing and sneezing. This means that the air will not infect you! BUT all the surfaces where these droplets land are infectious for about a week on average - everything that is associated with infected people will be contaminated and potentially infectious. The virus is on surfaces and you will not be infected unless your unprotected face is directly coughed or sneezed upon.
This virus only has cell receptors for lung cells (it only infects your lungs) The only way for the virus to infect you is through your nose or mouth via your hands or an infected cough or sneeze onto or into your nose or mouth.

2) Stock up now with disposable surgical masks and use them to prevent you from touching your nose and/or mouth (We touch our nose/mouth 90X/day without knowing it!). This is the only way this virus can infect you - it is lung-specific. The mask will not prevent the virus in a direct sneeze from getting into your nose or mouth - it is only to keep you from touching your nose or mouth.

3) Stock up now with hand sanitiozers and latex/nitrile gloves (get the appropriate sizes for your family). The hand sanitizers must be alcohol-based and greater than 60% alcohol to be effective.

4) Stock up now with zinc lozenges. These lozenges have been proven to be effective in blocking coronavirus (and most other viruses) from multiplying in your throat and nasopharynx. Use as directed several times each day when you begin to feel ANY "cold-like" symptoms beginning. It is best to lie down and let the lozenge dissolve in the back of your throat and nasopharynx. Cold-Eeze lozenges is one brand available, but there are other brands available.

http://integralworld.net/dillard38.html

 

[Koronin]

As we are wanting to know symptoms for the more mild cases I found this:

Coronavirus patient: 'I would like to reassure people'

(SOUNDBITE) (Spanish) SPANISH PATIENT WHO TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS, NIL MONRO, SAYING: "So the symptoms I'm having are like a normal cold, like a flu. I had a little bit of fever, headache, general discomfort...." 22-year-old Nil tested positive for...

www.yahoo.com

 

[movingtarget]

As we are wanting to know symptoms for the more mild cases I found this:

Coronavirus patient: 'I would like to reassure people'

(SOUNDBITE) (Spanish) SPANISH PATIENT WHO TESTED POSITIVE FOR CORONAVIRUS, NIL MONRO, SAYING: "So the symptoms I'm having are like a normal cold, like a flu. I had a little bit of fever, headache, general discomfort...." 22-year-old Nil tested positive for...

www.yahoo.com

Seems the reactions to the virus are very broad. Sickly people and the elderly are obviously more at risk but some young people have also had a bad time of it. One guy interviewed said he felt like he couldn't breathe at all. And the Chinese have also said that they have had to be pretty aggressive in their treatments with some people re lung issues. I have also heard that people with hypertension according to some Chinese researchers may be more at risk of complications once they contract the virus.

 

[yaco]

Think we have to be careful before we totally write off the hot humid suppression theory. We are now at the stage where the virus is being imported to countries which had nearly contained the virus. Nearly all the new clusters in Singapore and HK have been imported from elsewhere.
We will have to wait for longer.

 

[Jagartrott]

The Philippines cases are starting to take off. Does not support the hot-humid suppression of spread theory. But see below.

http://integralworld.net/dillard38.html

Stocking up on face masks is exactly what specialists told people here not to do. There are supply problems in many countries, so if ordinary people buy stocks of them, it means less of them can be used by those who need them the most, i.e. doctors and medical staff. Bad advice. If the main reason is to keep you from touching nose and mouth, you can use other materials.

 

[Red Rick]

Think we have to be careful before we totally write off the hot humid suppression theory. We are now at the stage where the virus is being imported. Nearly all the new clusters in Singapore have been imported from elsewhere and this could be the case in Singapore. We will have to wait for longer.

It's likely that it helps, but talkinga bout it makes it worse cause it makes people take less of the necessary precautions.

 

[King Boonen]

Making hypotheses is a lot more fun than testing hypotheses in my experience.

Now that's a PI if I ever heard one!

 

[djpbaltimore]

Think we have to be careful before we totally write off the hot humid suppression theory. We are now at the stage where the virus is being imported to countries which had nearly contained the virus. Nearly all the new clusters in Singapore and HK have been imported from elsewhere.
We will have to wait for longer.

I agree. People get colds and flu in the summer, so weather is no panacea to transmission. But the goal is to get the R-nought under 1.0 so it can be controlled. What we don't know is how much suppression weather will provide. The Philippines did have a recent case of community spread, so that is concerning. But it has been seeded so many times with the virus and (if their numbers are valid) did not spread widely, indicating a low R-nought.

Two enraging stories came out yesterday. The testing debacle in the USA continues.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1237555003352469509

View: https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1237555003352469509

https://twitter.com/x/status/1237728184663183361

View: https://twitter.com/ASlavitt/status/1237728184663183361

 

[Nirvana]

This morning at the supermarket I need hours to buy some bread and other necessary things, basically every other shop (except pharmacies) are closed and the entrance is regulated to avoid having too much people in but that lead to unseen gigantic queues outside, yeah there were the police and the army checking and saying "stay separated by one meter" but I lost the count of people coughing around...

Personally I found everything surreal, in front of the Uffizi there was even a tank. Only Asian tourists are still around like nothing happened.

 

[Red Rick]

30% increase in a day in the Netherlands, over 500 cases here now. Most events still going through with large populations, universities not changing a damned thing.

We're so gonna get *** by this.

 

[GVFTA]

Just listened to a local official here in Colorado say that an ever increasing reason for schools and businesses to shut down is to protect themselves from legal liability. Only in the US would lawyers determine best practices in a situation like this.
Sounds like universities in the state are preparing to go to online classes only, as early as next week. One University president said it "was a likelihood".

 

[Jagartrott]

30% increase in a day in the Netherlands, over 500 cases here now. Most events still going through with large populations, universities not changing a damned thing.

We're so gonna get *** by this.

Some nuance is needed here. The positive number of cases is inflated because the sampling in hospitals that I talked about yesterday was now included. Don't be blinded by the numbers. People see a counter, they tend to focus on it too much. We know that there is a huge underreporting of 'mild' cases. So the focus should be on measures and the longer term trend, not on the everyday numbers as such. Remember there is an incubation period, so any measure will only be seen in the numbers after a while (>10 days probably) - even though the effect of measures may be immediate.

 

[Red Rick]

Some nuance is needed here. The positive number of cases is inflated because the sampling in hospitals that I talked about yesterday was now included. Don't be blinded by the numbers. People see a counter, they tend to focus on it too much. We know that there is a huge underreporting of 'mild' cases. So the focus should be on measures and the longer term trend, not on the everyday numbers as such. Remember there is an incubation period, so any measure will only be seen in the numbers after a while (>10 days probably) - even though the effect of measures may be immediate.

It's not inflated.

If one person in a household has it, they don't even test the rest and just tell the rest to go isolate themselves.

 

[sir fly]

Just realized the Covid-19 is the biggest influencer this year.
... sick joke.

 

[Jagartrott]

The number is inflated compared to the days before. With the sampling, they tested people they would not normally test. So: a) the +30% increase is not a meaningful conclusion; b) the sampling proves that the number of infections is underestimated; c) it's therefore not very useful to focus on the exact day by day numbers - the trend is what matters (and there's a delay).

 

[djpbaltimore]

Just listened to a local official here in Colorado say that an ever increasing reason for schools and businesses to shut down is to protect themselves from legal liability. Only in the US would lawyers determine best practices in a situation like this.
Sounds like universities in the state are preparing to go to online classes only, as early as next week. One University president said it "was a likelihood".

When the students come back from spring break on the 23rd, all classes here will be virtual. Seminars and journal clubs are being cancelled en masse. We have been advised to not travel further than 50 miles from work for any reason, subject to a 14 day quarantine. Telework is encouraged but lab research will continue by keeping a 6 ft social distance at all times. I expect most universities are going to take these precautions imminently. I don't have any idea how much legal liability plays vs public health reasons TBH. There are rumblings that area public schools may be moving to virtual instruction too. Better to be prepared for these eventualities.

 

[GVFTA]

When the students come back from spring break on the 23rd, all classes here will be virtual. Seminars and journal clubs are being cancelled en masse. We have been advised to not travel further than 50 miles from work for any reason, subject to a 14 day quarantine. Telework is encouraged but lab research will continue by keeping a 6 ft social distance at all times. I expect most universities are going to take these precautions imminently. I don't have any idea how much legal liability plays vs public health reasons TBH. There are rumblings that area public schools may be moving to virtual instruction too. Better to be prepared for these eventualities.

Spring break doesn't begin here (most of CO) until the 21st. They are saying that a decision will be made shortly as to whether or not students will be allowed back in the dorms, upon return, if they leave the area. One University official here mentioned closing down the dorms altogether to avoid a cruise ship like situation. Not sure what they would do with the students. Send them home to their parents?

 

[GVFTA]

CU Boulder just announced all in person classes are cancelled for THE REST OF THE SEMESTER! My wife works in a healthcare setting and just told me they are preparing for all non medical employees to not report to work.

On a positive note, she said that the declaration of a pandemic actually helps employees who are sent home. Under EEOC regulations, employees are entitled to full pay in most cases. She is in management and is now also allowed to ask personal health related questions of her staff, which would be illegal under ADA laws.

I am more and more starting to believe a total lockdown/quarantine is a good idea to try and get ahead of the situation. There is no indication of community transmission here yet, so they claim.

 

[Koronin]

Duke U, Kent State, Ohio State have all said all classes on line.

Also San Fransisco/San Jose area of California are allowing games to go on without fans. The state of Ohio has said games may go on but no fans. Sounds like Washington (state) is saying no games at all. Also think the Pac 10 and one other conference tournament are going to be played without fans. On the other hand, NC is allowing the ACC Tournament is going on with fans.