Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Sestriere]

At higher % the recovered people will start being significant in providing herd immunity.

I don't see drug therapy as a means to control the outbreak but as a means to control the severity of illnesses and save lives.

I really believe the biggest question is to what extent hospitals will be overrun.

I guess that is why it isn't 100%. Also, it is currently not known how long the immunity will persist. There have been cases of people that were ill testing negative and later testing positive again. This has been rare so far and could be down to false negatives which appear to be rather frequent.

Re hospitals being overrun. No question about that. It's by far the biggest challenge. When there are more people with severe pneumonia than respirators available, the death rate will be a lot higher.

 

[BlueRoads]

No worries about the vaccine, people.
Our health minister stated that should we need it we'll make one... just like that.
I suppose we won't be that selfish not to share it with others.

Lots of irresponsible behaving in the region.

Okay, cool man. Thanks.

 

[yaco]

Merkel said yesterday on a press conference that if no vaccine or anti-viral drugs become available, experts expect 60-70% of the German population to become infected. With a mortality rate of 1-2% that would be anywhere between 400,000 and 1,000,000 deaths in Germany. Are there reasons to believe that the development in the US will be significantly better? With similar estimations I get between 1.5 to 3.8 million for the US.

Also, are there any studies about what will happen when China starts to release the lockdown measures on its population? As soon as people from abroad start travelling there again, there will be another outbreak I would guess. Are there plans to keep this situation up until there is a vaccine available? With all the global outbreaks I have a hard time seeing the virus contained below those 60-70% unless every country applies rules like China or Italy until a vaccine is found.

well if you travel to China today they impose a 14 day quarantine or self isolation. This has the double edged sword of discouraging Chinese from travelling.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I guess that is why it isn't 100%. Also, it is currently not known how long the immunity will persist. There have been cases of people that were ill testing negative and later testing positive again. This has been rare so far and could be down to false negatives which appear to be rather frequent.

Re hospitals being overrun. No question about that. It's by far the biggest challenge. When there are more people with severe pneumonia than respirators available, the death rate will be a lot higher.

I posted an article earlier, but there is some evidence that being positive for the test toward the end of the illness does not mean that the person is contagious. PCR can only detect the viral RNA after it is reverse transcribed to DNA, not actual infectious virus. Late term positive could mean that you are picking up viral remnants after the immune system has cleared the infection. An analogy would be you are seeing spent shell casings not intact bullets.

As for people discussing how this all ends. People should go back and read how incredibly difficult it was to get countries virus free during the Ebola outbreak. And that was an outbreak that was geographically constrained and clinically much more obvious to spot. Mitigation strategies will help us limit the virus like in China. But getting it to absolute zero is something that I don't think we can do at this stage, barring a vaccine hail mary.

Another troubling black hole where we really don't know what is going on. A number of the positives in MD came from the same Nile River cruise.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238072170116505600

View: https://twitter.com/declanwalsh/status/1238072170116505600

 

[ThePirate81]

View: https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M

 

[Sestriere]

I posted an article earlier, but there is some evidence that being positive for the test toward the end of the illness does not mean that the person is contagious. PCR can only detect the viral RNA after it is reverse transcribed to DNA, not actual infectious virus. Late term positive could mean that you are picking up viral remnants after the immune system has cleared the infection. An analogy would be you are seeing spent shell casings not intact bullets.

As for people discussing how this all ends. People should go back and read how incredibly difficult it was to get countries virus free during the Ebola outbreak. And that was an outbreak that was geographically constrained and clinically much more obvious to spot. Mitigation strategies will help us limit the virus like in China. But getting it to absolute zero is something that I don't think we can do at this stage, barring a vaccine hail mary.

Another troubling black hole where we really don't know what is going on. A number of the positives in MD came from the same Nile River cruise.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238072170116505600

View: https://twitter.com/declanwalsh/status/1238072170116505600

Thanks for the heads-up. I didn't rea every post in the thread carefully enough, I guess. If this is the (only) reason for people to be tested positive again, it would of course be positive.

Also, my roommate came back from Egypt a couple of days ago... Was in a city where a tourist died.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Leaks from a briefing in DC indicate that the total of number of people tested in the USA is ~11k. Not per day.... total. The testing situation does not look like it will improve in the short term based on what Fauci is saying publicly. NBA teams seem to have some access as another NBA player has tested positive.

Good pragmatic thread about COVID19 from a former commissioner of the FDA. Too bad the first plan of attack is aggressive screening, which we lack the capacity to do.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1238058027510575107

View: https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1238058027510575107

 

[Koronin]

Due to Bill Gates and one of the University labs it appears that testing will be more widely available specifically in the Seattle area by the end of this week. However, that is very specific to Seattle only with the hope of expanding it only to the state of Washington soon.

I've read there are currently two companies starting human testing for a vaccine. One in Seattle and one someone on the east coast. One company said 14 months of human testing the other is saying about 12 months before they can go to the FDA if it works. I've read that treatment should be available in a few months (likely be mid summer). They are currently in some areas treating it with either SARS or HIV treatments.

 

[Koronin]

I currently have CNBC on. Anyway what is important here is that there is now reporting that Gilead Sciences has a possible treatment currently in testing in China, US, (and apparently other countries). They are saying they expecting results next month. This should mean that if it goes well it can go to manufacturing and hopefully market by May/June time frame. Also a Malaria drug is in clinical trials as a potential treatment.

 

[Jagartrott]

 

[GVFTA]

The asterisk next to the US is very important. We are obviously way behind, but those numbers are pretty distorted.

 

[Koronin]

Good news for Seattle and possibly the state of Washington: Bill Gates and the U of Washington have started getting their own test kits out so that Seattle can start really testing and by next week there should be enough tests in Seattle for anyone who wants one to be tested. The hope of U of Washington is to get the entire state to the level of Seattle. However, this only helps Seattle and Washington (state) it doesn't do much for the rest of the country. I did hear U of Cincinnati is working on getting a large number of tests out as well.

 

[postmanhat]

The UK government is doing nothing, except a bit of advice about hand-washing, international school trips and elderly people going on cruises. Their general approach being that the measures being taken in other countries are not justified here yet, and have to be weighed against the negative economic and societal impacts they would have.

The recorded rate of infection is still relatively low here at about 9 per million population, compared with 30-100 in most of Western Europe. If nothing else, it is a risky political strategy, as we are likely to be one of the last counties to bring in any kind of emergency legislation. Though Germany too, seems to be very reluctant to go down this path, despite the virus being more widespread. Bavaria alone has almost as many cases as the whole of The UK

 

[Jagartrott]

The asterisk next to the US is very important. We are obviously way behind, but those numbers are pretty distorted.

A bit - but not that much probably.
Up until Monday: "After surveying local data from across the country, we can only verify that 4,384 people have been tested for the coronavirus nationwide, as of Monday at 4 p.m. eastern time. These data are as comprehensive a compilation of official statistics as currently possible."

The Dangerous Delays in U.S. Coronavirus Testing Haven’t Stopped

Without adequate testing, people with coronavirus symptoms are left to agonize over the right course of action on their own.

www.theatlantic.com

The observation alone that no-one seems to know how many tests have been taken, speaks volumes by itself. Whether the number is 2000, 4000 or 6000, that's not relevant. We're talking about one or two (or three!) orders of magnitude of difference (per capita) with other affected countries.

 

[Koronin]

Here's an article to show how little testing has been going on in the US and how likely under reported the actual number of cases there are:

'Don't panic' says US woman who recovered from coronavirus

An American woman who has recovered from the novel coronavirus has a simple message for people who are worried: Don't panic -- but do think about high-risk individuals and stay home if you feel ill. Elizabeth Schneider lives in Seattle, the biggest city of Washington state, which has the most deaths

www.yahoo.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

A bit - but not that much probably.
Up until Monday: "After surveying local data from across the country, we can only verify that 4,384 people have been tested for the coronavirus nationwide, as of Monday at 4 p.m. eastern time. These data are as comprehensive a compilation of official statistics as currently possible."

The Dangerous Delays in U.S. Coronavirus Testing Haven’t Stopped

Without adequate testing, people with coronavirus symptoms are left to agonize over the right course of action on their own.

www.theatlantic.com

The observation alone that no-one seems to know how many tests have been taken, speaks volumes by itself. Whether the number is 2000, 4000 or 6000, that's not relevant. We're talking about one or two (or three!) orders of magnitude of difference (per capita) with other affected countries.

True. If the number was good, we would be hearing about it. The radio silence on this front speaks volumes.

 

[aphronesis]

The US is struggling to test more people for the coronavirus. Now it's facing a shortage of the materials used to run those tests.

Italy, South Korea, and China are "way ahead of us on testing," one US health-system CEO told Business Insider.

www.businessinsider.com

And a wholly non-partisan take on the inadequacy of the US medical system to handle the issue

Coronavirus Will Spread Faster Because We Lack Universal Health Care

Under the U.S.’s for-profit health system, the epidemic is not being treated like the public emergency it is.

truthout.org

 

[Koronin]

Apparently today Ohio's Governor said that he believes at least 100,000 Ohioans are infected with the virus. However, no way to test to know for sure. The state ordered all schools closed there.

 

[Merckx index]

Testing is mainly important from a social perspective--so we have some idea of how fast the virus is spreading, and the mortality rate. From the individual perspective, it shouldn't matter much. Social distancing means you assume that you're positive, and that everyone else is, too. Your behavior should not be affected by a test result, unless you've been infected, and recovered.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Nevada declared state of emergency and two hours later you can't buy anything from the stores being pillaged. Rumor is everything but police, hospitals, and firefighters closed. Even the casinos being closed or severely limited. And it's pouring bad in Vegas.

Nevada governor forms medical advisory team on COVID-19

Gov. Steve Sisolak held a press conference Thursday evening at the Grant Sawyer State Office Building about COVID-19.

www.ktnv.com

 

[Nirvana]

Today data in Italy (as of 17:00):

*86.011 tested (+12.857).
*15.113 cases (+2.651).
*12.839 infected at the moment (+2.249)
*1.258 recovered (+213).
*1.153 in intensive care at the moment (+125).
*1.016 deaths (+189).


Lombardia alone:

*29.534 tested (+3.905).
*8.725 cases (+1.445).
*6.896 infected at the moment (+1.133).
*1.085 recovered (+185).
*605 in intensive care at the moment (+45).
*744 deaths (+127).


Complete data here: http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_8_file.pdf

 

[Nirvana]

Cases and deaths from some other countries:

*China 80.814 cases (+21) and 3.176 deaths (+7).
*Korea 7.979 cases (+224) and 67 deaths (+7).
*Spain 3.146 cases (+869) and 86 deaths (+31).
*France 2.876 cases (+595) and 61 deaths (+13).
*Switzerland 868 cases (+216) and 7 deaths (+3).
*Norway 800 cases (+171) and one death (+1).
*Sweden 687 cases (+187) and one death.
*Denmark 674 cases (+160).
*Netherlands 614 cases (+111) and 5 deaths.
*UK 590 cases (+130) and 10 deaths (+2).
*Belgium 399 cases (+85) and 3 deaths.
*Austria 361 cases (+115) and one death (+1).

 

[Mayomaniac]

Today data in Italy (as of 17:00):

*86.011 tested (+12.857).
*15.113 cases (+2.651).
*12.839 infected at the moment (+2.249)
*1.258 recovered (+213).
*1.153 in intensive care at the moment (+125).
*1.016 deaths (+189).


Lombardia alone:

*29.534 tested (+3.905).
*8.725 cases (+1.445).
*6.896 infected at the moment (+1.133).
*1.085 recovered (+185).
*605 in intensive care at the moment (+45).
*744 deaths (+127).


Complete data here: http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_8_file.pdf

I still think that the Veneto Region was able to somehow contain it because they did widespread testing at the start/once they knew about the outbreak in the zone around Padova.
Meanwhile China has send a team of experts, doctors and scientists to help Italy.
Source: The FB page of the Chinese embassy in Italy.
https://www.facebook.com/chineseemb...402095490257/2939508136112964/?type=3&theater

 

[Red Rick]

We're over 800 cases now, up 190 from yesterday. Spain more than 1000 added to 4200 hundred.

This isn't going to end well

 

[djpbaltimore]

Eye-opening panel discussion about coronavirus from experts.

At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.

Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did

Different from the study I posted and referenced earlier so worth re-iterating that there is a lot that is still unknown at this stage about transmission.

Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).

https://www.linkedin.com/content-gu...-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/