Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[movingtarget]

The 200,000 coronavirus deaths are an American tragedy of our own making | Andrew Gawthorpe

Coronavirus inflicts American deaths equivalent to a 9/11 every few days, but Trump and his allies seem blithely unconcerned

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

Experts warn Parkinson's disease may 'explode' after COVID-19

The loss of smell and taste are worrying COVID-19 symptoms because they indicate possible damage to the brain. Researchers are warning the coronavirus pandemic could lead to a "wave" of serious conditions like Parkinson's disease in the future.

www.abc.net.au

 

[movingtarget]

What the 1918 and swine flus tell us about how this pandemic ends

Just over 100 years ago, an influenza infected a third of the world's population — but within just three years, the threat of this deadly flu had all but passed. So what changed — and how will the pandemic we're currently living through change?

www.abc.net.au

 

[djpbaltimore]

Fauci testimony from today. It is interesting that Rand's POV about NYC is practically indistinguishable from what Chris has been posting here. Rand's claims about cross reactive T cells from cold coronavirus virus being what helped Asian countries weather COVID-19 effectively is probably not correct. But his views will be amplified. This is how science can be used by bad faith purveyors to obfuscate discourse.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308793235805007874

View: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1308793235805007874

 

[Jagartrott]

You know the old math cliché "50% of the people are below average"? C19 has shown that be be real, not just a joke.

I don't know the cliché, but it is wrong
50% of people <minus 1 person> would be below the median.

 

[jmdirt]

I don't know the cliché, but it is wrong
50% of people <minus 1 person> would be below the median.

The cliché doesn't refer to median!
The math is wrong too because about 80% of people are clearly below average!

 

[jmdirt]

Fauci testimony from today. It is interesting that Rand's POV about NYC is practically indistinguishable from what Chris has been posting here. Rand's claims about cross reactive T cells from cold coronavirus virus being what helped Asian countries weather COVID-19 effectively is probably not correct. But his views will be amplified. This is how science can be used by bad faith purveyors to obfuscate discourse.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308793235805007874

View: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1308793235805007874

RP is an example of idiot who sees a snow storm and says "see, there is no global warming/climate change". To be clear, he is disingenuously cherry picking facts (partial facts), to make a political point, and likely understands it more than he leads on.

 

[djpbaltimore]

RP is an example of idiot who sees a snow storm and says "see, there is no global warming/climate change". To be clear, he is disingenuously cherry picking facts (partial facts), to make a political point, and likely understands it more than he leads on.

Agree 100%.

Indiana is going to move to 100% open with a mask mandate. That means sporting events and everything else. No limits on indoor dining or bars. That should be interesting.

 

[Oldermanish]

Agree 100%.

Indiana is going to move to 100% open with a mask mandate. That means sporting events and everything else. No limits on indoor dining or bars. That should be interesting.

Just in time for football season, winter weather and everyone hanging out at bars. Their case trend is down so there is some justification to loosen things up. It's going to be up to the people. Lets check back in 4 weeks.

 

[Koronin]

I'm sure a few of may remember my mentioning my husband having been sick since February/March time frame. Ended up at the emergency room and another Covid test (so far 5 of those plus an antibody test) all negative. However, we finally found out he has pneumonia. So all the tests were accurate and he had 3 different types of Covid tests. The regular one, the 15 minute one and this last one was a blood one. We're relieved to finally find out what has and know it's treatable. They also suggest he get a respirator mask because they are sure it's something from the hospital that's caused him to get sick enough to end up with pneumonia. Plus with his compromised immune system and working in a hospital (Covid or not) they suggested a respirator mask would be a good idea anyway.

 

[djpbaltimore]

This is something I have been watching. If this trend continues, we are looking at the onset of a third wave. And I think it will be centered in the Midwest. It already is starting resemble the sunbelt wave. Early infections seem to cluster in the younger populations, but elevated prevalence led to community spread into the more vulnerable people. And it is worth remembering that the next 10-14 days are already baked in. So what may look like a small increase may already be difficult to mitigate in a timely fashion.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308918953947869184

View: https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1308918953947869184

 

[dusty red roads]

Interesting finding on genetic disorders, interferon response and antibodies to interferon

Genetic or immune defects may impair ability to fight Covid-19

Exclusive: significant proportion of severely ill people have inborn errors, study finds

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

Coronavirus continuing to mutate, study finds, as US cases rise

Experts believe virus is probably becoming more contagious but US study did not find mutations made it more lethal

www.theguardian.com

 

[movingtarget]

'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid

Researchers running Helsinki pilot scheme say dogs can identify virus in seconds

www.theguardian.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

Interesting finding on genetic disorders, interferon response and antibodies to interferon

Genetic or immune defects may impair ability to fight Covid-19

Exclusive: significant proportion of severely ill people have inborn errors, study finds

www.theguardian.com

Great article. The point at the end about convalescent plasma is a key one too.

Magnús Gottfređsson, an infectious diseases doctor at the University of Iceland, said the findings should sound a note of caution to those conducting clinical trials of convalescent plasma because if the donated plasma contains auto-antibodies to interferon it could potentially do more harm than good.

 

[Oldermanish]

This is something I have been watching. If this trend continues, we are looking at the onset of a third wave. And I think it will be centered in the Midwest. It already is starting resemble the sunbelt wave. Early infections seem to cluster in the younger populations, but elevated prevalence led to community spread into the more vulnerable people. And it is worth remembering that the next 10-14 days are already baked in. So what may look like a small increase may already be difficult to mitigate in a timely fashion.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1308918953947869184

View: https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1308918953947869184

Looks like Midwest and traditional hotspots, Texas, Florida, Cal are heating up again. You are on target again.
Or, as the WH Big Talker says: "We've rounded the corner."

 

[jmdirt]

Looks like Midwest and traditional hotspots, Texas, Florida, Cal are heating up again. You are on target again.
Or, as the WH Big Talker says: "We've rounded the corner."

We've rounded the corner, and we are heading up again...

 

[djpbaltimore]

Florida has been plateauing at about 100 deaths per day as is. Now they are opening up bars and restaurants to 100%. Sounds like they are making noises about restarting cruises from FLL and MIA in the not too distant future too. The fall wave that is about to happen will be the most senseless one yet. The Dakotas on fire because of Sturgis. Wisconsin on fire because of university openings. Florida on fire because they want to open bars and dislike masks. At this point, what can you really do? Maryland tried to ease restaurant restrictions and the numbers started moving up again, so the restrictions were put back in place. And I imagine that the people of Maryland are obeying mask policies better than Florida or Indiana are. Don't see how this ends any other way than more outbreaks.

 

[jmdirt]

Hey dj and anyone else with knowledge:

Health officials are encouraging people to get flu shots this year, but what if you get a flu shot that isn't the correct strain for the one you get? That's the big question every year, but this year its has higher (or at least different) importance. I'm not being anit-vax here, but they are requesting that people gamble a crap shoot in the middle of a crap shoot (the worst crap shoot in my life).

Thoughts?

 

[hrotha]

If they don't get the vaccine right, then you can still get the flu. That's all. I don't see what the gamble is?

 

[Oldermanish]

We've rounded the corner, and we are heading up again...

A CNN interview with the Mayor of Miami was showing the fracture between local efforts and the State/National political scene. Seems the Fla Governor met with Trump several days ago and announced elimination of all restrictions on restaurants, bars, etc. Further: fines or enforcement of mask wearing would be eliminated and overrule all local programs. Seems like this GOP Governor doesn't care how hot H*ll will be for him.
He had assembled cherry-picked experts for a forum to advise on the announcement. One expert was quoted: "Covid-19 is not a particularly horrible way to die..." (paraphrased by the Mayor, I believe so it bears some vetting). I guess if you're in a coma you're pretty much dead already. You have to wonder how that plays with the Right to Life crowd?
Oh wait. I forgot the Rapture is coming Here's a link to the Reuters reporting of the Governor's order.

.https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-restaurants-can-now-operate-with-no-restrictions-governor-says/ar-BB19qBJF?li=BBnb7Kz

 

[Merckx index]

Hey dj and anyone else with knowledge:

Health officials are encouraging people to get flu shots this year, but what if you get a flu shot that isn't the correct strain for the one you get? That's the big question every year, but this year its has higher (or at least different) importance. I'm not being anit-vax here, but they are requesting that people gamble a crap shoot in the middle of a crap shoot (the worst crap shoot in my life).

Thoughts?

I probably can't get a flu shot where I'm at now, but it doesn't worry me much, because whatever I'm doing to avoid C19 will obviously work just as well with flu. I suppose you can argue that the odds of getting one or the other are higher than just getting one, but unless you're engaging in fairly risky behavior, I'd think the odds of getting either one would be pretty low.

I saw a clip of Fauci's interchange with Rand Paul. This is the best I've seen Fauci, He sounded just as he ought to sound--as a scientist rebutting someone's claims to his conclusions. He was very civil, but very firm and forceful in his reply, just out and out told Paul where he thought he was wrong. I wish Fauci would be more outspoken in this way, but i think the reason he isn't is because he's afraid of disagreeing with Trump, unless it's something too much to ignore, and even then, he sugarcoats it, using words like aspirational, rather than wishful thinking. Paul and other Senators are no threat to Fauci's job, so he can come down on them forcefully without worrying.

A couple of links:

1) a really long article projecting how the pandemic may play out over the next year:

Charting the pandemic over the next 12 months — and beyond - STAT

These 30 moments in 2020 and 2021 are possible turning points for the pandemic or barometers for how the virus is reshaping our lives.

www.statnews.com

2) a report of a new bat virus with high homology to SARS-CoV-2. What makes this study especially interesting is that they found four amino acids inserted into a critical region of the spike protein. SARS-CoV-2 features a similar insertion (though with different aa), and this new study shows that this kind of insertion can happen naturally. This paper has been out for several months, but I hadn't seen it.

A Novel Bat Coronavirus Closely Related to SARS-CoV-2 Contains Natural Insertions at the S1/S2 Cleavage Site of the Spike Protein

The unprecedented pandemic of pneumonia caused by a novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, in China and beyond has had major public health impacts on a global…

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[jmdirt]

If they don't get the vaccine right, then you can still get the flu. That's all. I don't see what the gamble is?

The gamble is why take something that is potentially dangerous for no gain.

 

[movingtarget]

UK scientists begin study of how long Covid can survive in the air

Researchers will test length of time virus stays infectious in different climatic conditions

www.theguardian.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

If they don't get the vaccine right, then you can still get the flu. That's all. I don't see what the gamble is?

I don't know whether the low prevalence of flu in the southern hemisphere will make predicting the strains this winter more or less accurate. If there is a gamble, it is from the public health officials' perspective.

Hey dj and anyone else with knowledge:

Health officials are encouraging people to get flu shots this year, but what if you get a flu shot that isn't the correct strain for the one you get? That's the big question every year, but this year its has higher (or at least different) importance. I'm not being anit-vax here, but they are requesting that people gamble a crap shoot in the middle of a crap shoot (the worst crap shoot in my life).

Thoughts?

The vaccine has either 3 or 4 strains in it depending on which one you get*. You hear about mismatches, but usually it is only in one of them. And a mismatch is really just slight, but crucial differences in sequence. That would mean that you would not have complete immunity. But partial immunity is probably better than nothing. There are going to be H1N1 flu virus circulating this winter, I think it is more a gamble to avoid the vaccine.

*4 is not necessarily better as the extra strain is another B strain, and B is less virulent than A.