Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Especially for COVID, how do you estimate the number of people who are staying inside and effectively removing themselves from the viral pool? Human nature is what it is, so I think the people in Manaus saw their hospital infrastructure crumbling and holed up as best they could to limit their exposure. That behavior is not new and is one big reason why you will not hit 60-70%. People would have to be completely unwitting of what is happening around them. Combine that shrinking of the infection pool with the 20-30% actual infections to help constrict the viral spread and it is not hard to see why cases went down. Get R below 1 and that will happen. The people who think 20% is herd immunity are assuming that 40-50% of the population was already immune due to cross-reactive T cells from other CoVs. That is a pretty dubious suggestion at this point.
More evidence that herd immunity is not present in Manaus. Once these people plugged themselves back in to the community, infections started to rise again.

View: https://twitter.com/PauloLotufo/status/1310325793797664769


Looking at the numbers from Italy and some of the other big countries in Europe, we are approaching a time of reckoning for the decision makers. Due they pull the trigger on restrictions like Israel, or do they try to muddle through it like the US.

View: https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1310371699590860800
 
You would probably be amazed (or shocked) at the attitudes of many senior citizens regarding COVID-19. There is a big push in Florida to restart US cruises to the Caribbean. I doubt they will get full ships, but thousands of retirees will line up to board them once they re-start. One complaint will be that there are too many safety requirements like the necessity of masks in elevators and other public venues. The cruises that have started in the Med have utilized temperature checks (pointless) and rapid testing (crucial) at check in. At ports, people can only go ashore with their ship pods and are not able to wander around at their leisure. Breaking that rule gets you kicked off the cruise. If you can establish an effective bubble, a cruise is doable from a public health perspective IMO. The crew accommodations add complexity as they can be packed in close quarters as evidenced by the story above. Test, test, test....
 
Just heard on CNBC that Regeneron just released preliminary data on their antibody treament for Covid patients at home and it is showing good results is helping people recover more quickly from Covid. Not sure if it's been published anywhere yet, but it sounds encouraging. This is the treatment a lot of people have been waiting on results from. They still have two more trials in which they haven't released and may not have preliminary data back yet. Those are the hospitalized patients and using it as a short term preventative.
 
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Here's some of the info now out for the Regeneron information. To me it sounds like it helps.

 
I wonder what is the latest word on the role of schools in the spread of coronavirus. I mean one can make a theoretical argument that actual infections happen outside schools and I have read plenty of those, but that also somewhat undercuts the claims of people from back in the summer that schools are safe to open because actual infection rates in the community were likely at the lowest at that time.
 
Those are good questions but I don't think there has been definitive conclusions. I do think that schools need to be subdivided. The risk associated with elementary school is very different from the risk associated with high school. There are a lot of layers to the school debate.

On another note, I found this one very interesting. It supports some of my earlier thoughts. 1) People generally followed stay at home orders earlier this year. 2) That is why infection curves break before herd immunity hits as the mobile viral pool begins to hit saturation.

ETA. The people who were mobile due to essential jobs deserve a big hazard bonus. No question.

The analysis suggests that stay-at-home restrictions plausibly removed 89% of the population from the risk of infection with the remaining 11% exposed to an unmitigated outbreak that infected 9.3% of the total population.
View: https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1311273896717570048
 
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Investigative journalist Del Bigtree interviews world-renowned scientist Professor Sucharit Bhakdi, M.D. and his spouse, Dr. Karina Reiss, PhD.

Prof Sucharit bhakdi, M.D.
  • Microbiologist, former prof at Johannes Gutenberg, Univ of Mainz.
  • Former head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene.
  • One of the most cited research scientists in German history.
Stating this is not a pandemic but a "panicdemic." "Not a killer virus" but more compared to "common cold viruses or even influenza:"

Stating scientists and professors are not saying anything against this virus "for fear of losing their jobs."

Starts @ 3:45 in:

View: https://youtu.be/wLXvq9m8zoo


More with Prof Bhakdi:

Reiterates that Covid-19 for healthy people under 70 is as dangerous as a seasonal, moderate influenza virus - warns against gene-alterating coronavirus vaccine:


Prof Bhakdi very angry with children & old people wearing face masks from a health & psychological perspective (I couldn't agree more!):

View: https://youtu.be/Gw6flWjHQHs


- Prof Bhakdi has a YouTube channel with over a dozen videos. He has also been interviewed several times on German television.

I would agree with them that there many scientists and professors are afraid to say against Covid for fear of losing their jobs and grants... However, more from European nations seemed to be coming out - people need to hear opposing views from qualified experts.
 
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there many scientists and professors are afraid to say against Covid for fear of losing their jobs and grants
LOL. What reality is this guy living in? Notice how there has to be a persecution angle to the con. I am sure that tenured profs are cowering in terror over their job security. It looks like Germany has a Mikovits of their own. Good thing they have their own Fauci too. Of note for those who have posted about Drosten in the past.


Astounding numbers from Australia. I am really curious how much this holds for the N. Hemisphere.

View: https://twitter.com/danyeoh/status/1311269440907075592
 
In Belgium, some figures were just released: in all schoolgoing children, about 0.2% (c. 2200 children) tested covid-positive since the opening of schools after summer (Sept 1). Same percentage of teachers. Face masks not required in kindergarten and primary school (basically 3-11/12 year-olds), but they are mandatory in secondary school (12-17/18 year-olds). Number of total infections in same period (rough calculation) is about 25.000 people. Most still in age groups 18-30 y. For the schools, most problematic schools are in the big cities.

Belgium is carrying out about 30.000 tests/day (population: 11.5 million).
 
LOL. What reality is this guy living in? Notice how there has to be a persecution angle to the con. I am sure that tenured profs are cowering in terror over their job security. It looks like Germany has a Mikovits of their own. Good thing they have their own Fauci too. Of note for those who have posted about Drosten in the past.


Astounding numbers from Australia. I am really curious how much this holds for the N. Hemisphere.

View: https://twitter.com/danyeoh/status/1311269440907075592
Its kind of weird that the deniers of climate change use a slightly different, but equally stupid line: "all of the climate scientists know that they have to agree that there is change otherwise they will lose their money". Does that include all of the fossil fuel scientist who have the same findings (but hide them)?
 
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The incentive structures for most people in research are too Byzantine for the uninitiated to really get their heads around. So, the conspiratorial set has to reframe the argument in a way that a wider audience can absorb. Most people understand money. Voila... The question really is whether a person making that type of argument is doing it out of ignorance or bad faith.

There was a prof from UC-Berkeley who was under fire for stating that antiviral agents caused AIDS, not HIV as recently as 2012. Even with that flaming hot take, they couldn't get him fired. Tenure is a powerful thing. I think it is doubtful that voicing contrary opinions about COVID-19 wouldn't even ripple the waters beyond the usual fractiousness of scientific discourse.
 
In Belgium, some figures were just released: in all schoolgoing children, about 0.2% (c. 2200 children) tested covid-positive since the opening of schools after summer (Sept 1). Same percentage of teachers. Face masks not required in kindergarten and primary school (basically 3-11/12 year-olds), but they are mandatory in secondary school (12-17/18 year-olds). Number of total infections in same period (rough calculation) is about 25.000 people. Most still in age groups 18-30 y. For the schools, most problematic schools are in the big cities.

Belgium is carrying out about 30.000 tests/day (population: 11.5 million).
The second chart on page 5 shows that the 10-19 age bracket have the second highest infection incidence


I wonder how many in the 30-39 and 40-49 bracket are their parents
 
Reiterates that Covid-19 for healthy people under 70 is as dangerous as a seasonal, moderate influenza virus
I posted upthread a long time ago a detailed comparison of mortality rates by age for seasonal flu and C19, which shows that at every age C19 has a higher mortality rate.

Prof Bhakdi very angry with children & old people wearing face masks from a health & psychological perspective
There is very little evidence that face masks result in health problems, vs. an enormous amount of evidence that they block viral particles.

I would agree with them that there many scientists and professors are afraid to say against Covid for fear of losing their jobs and grants... However, more from European nations seemed to be coming out - people need to hear opposing views from qualified experts.
As Baltimore notes, Peter Duesberg is Exhibit A that you can propose the most outlandish, unsupported ideas, and not have to worry about losing your job. Michael Levitt and Luc Montagnier are two Novel Prize winners who have proposed theories far out of the mainstream, and haven't had any problems. Montagnier has claimed the virus was created in a lab, while Levitt believes the virus stops transmitting more or less spontaneously over time. Stanford's John Ioannidis has argued that the mortality rate is much lower than what the mainstream believes, and he has no problem keeping his job and publishing his work.

By the way, Peru--which may be undercounting its deaths--now has an official overall mortality rate of about 1 in a thousand. IOW, even if everyone in the entire country were infected, the mortality rate would be higher than what some researchers have proposed. There are seven states in. the U.S. that have a higher overall mortality rate than that, and NYC has an overall mortality rate of about 0.23%. That is about as high as the CDC estimate of the infectious mortality rate, which means nearly everyone in the city would have to be infected for the CDC rate to be correct. One "benefit" of watching the virus continue to spread is we are going to see a lot of claims that the virus is not that deadly fall by the wayside.

this author has looked for the mortality rate of the coronavirus in America by age and it is very difficult to find. “You won’t be able to find the answer, because you’ll only get an answer if you search the reports from the RKI [Robert Koch Institute] and calculate the number yourself.”
??? This information is readily available at the CDC website, e.g., https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html

There are also tons of data from state, county and city governments, e.g., the NY City website: https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page#download

Doctor Sucharit Bhakdi makes an incredibly powerful statement while explaining that the vaccine being developed “isn’t a normal conventional vaccine, and it’s not like the flu vaccine.” He says that the vaccine is “gene-based,” and the way it works is “still unknown scientifically and medically.” While many people have fought against genetically modified food, the Virologist explains, “we’re [now] talking about a vaccination that genetically manipulates the human body, and apparently these same people have no concerns about it.”
In the first place, a wide variety of approaches are being used to develop vaccines, and not all of them are gene based. Moderna and Imperial are developing mRNA vaccines, also CureVac in Germany, which he may be referring to, but Oxford/AstraZeneca, e.g., is not, unless you count using a viral vector, which is used for many flu vaccines.

In the second place, saying that we don’t know how gene-based vaccines work is ridiculous. We don’t know all the possible side effects, but that’s true of any vaccine. We do know that to the extent vaccines like this work, they do so by producing viral proteins that can stimulate an immune response. Could they have other, unintended effects that could cause problems? Of course, which is why there are Phase 3 trials.
 
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Astounding numbers from Australia. I am really curious how much this holds for the N. Hemisphere.

View: https://twitter.com/danyeoh/status/1311269440907075592
I think I read that this was due to a huge increase in people getting vaccinated against the flu, which reduced the the number of winter respiratory infections, and is thought to have helped lessen the impact of Covid-19.

Certainly in The UK this year, the flu jab is being heavily promoted
 
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I wonder what is the latest word on the role of schools in the spread of coronavirus. I mean one can make a theoretical argument that actual infections happen outside schools and I have read plenty of those, but that also somewhat undercuts the claims of people from back in the summer that schools are safe to open because actual infection rates in the community were likely at the lowest at that time.
Figures released yesterday on the where Covid outbreaks were reported in The UK for the previous week

Schools and colleges - 42%
Work - 19%
Care Homes - 25%
Hospitals - 6%
Pubs/restaurants - 3%
Other - 5%

With the caveat that this doesn't tell you where the infection originated, this feels about right in terms of public transmission
 
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I think I read that this was due to a huge increase in people getting vaccinated against the flu, which reduced the the number of winter respiratory infections, and is thought to have helped lessen the impact of Covid-19.

Certainly in The UK this year, the flu jab is being heavily promoted
The anti vaxxers would call that fake news, lovable group that they are................but it would be interesting to get the vaccination figures as it's also been apparent that many people have been also avoiding hospitals and medical centres but you can also get vaccinated at some pharmacies. One of the things that the medical fraternity have been vocal about is that many people with chronic onditions have been delaying or avoiding treatment during the pandemic. Maybe that is partially a reference to asthmatics and the like.
 
The second chart on page 5 shows that the 10-19 age bracket have the second highest infection incidence


I wonder how many in the 30-39 and 40-49 bracket are their parents
This is skewed by the 18-19 year-olds, who were reported to have much higher infection rates then the younger (school-going) teenagers. That's why lumping colleges and schools together is not detailed enough to make conclusions. Much better to look at it in narrower age categories.
 

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