Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Florida has the weather that allows outdoor social events and ventilation. Yet, they are still seeing 10K cases a day and 100 deaths. Their spike was totally predictable after removing all restrictions. Comparing them to California, Florida has almost 2x the mortality per capita (92 to 53). I know where I would rather live.
I'm sure that number for CA will go up if things are as bad as say there are. And supposedly it's catastrophic there:


How about NY? They have basically 2x the mortality per capita compared to Florida (183 - 92). And NY has never really opened up much keeping many business restrictions in place since last spring. Their cases are increasing significantly and they have a 25% higher hospitalization rate per capita than Florida.

I notice that Colorado has peaked in terms of cases and hospitalizations and are trending downward. Are you willing to admit that the restrictions worked and that they were the correct decision?
Yes...that's true; and it's a pleasant surprise. Currently, we're at a "Level Red" status which entails closing all non-essential businesses for indoor service except gyms & fitness centers can remain open at 10% capacity. Places of worship are allowed 25% capacity and a metro-wide 10:00 PM curfew is still in effect. "Level Purple" would be a complete shutdown for everything but essential businesses.

If the trend continues it would appear these restrictions are working while keeping gyms/fitness centers & places of worship open. However, there are some contradictions when you examine some other states and see conflicting trends. For example, cases & hospitalizations are declining significantly in South Dakota. There's never been any lockdowns, restrictions, mask mandates or anything like that (and of course Noem has been crucified by the MSM):


Oklahoma is another state that I have been following. Currently, their cases & hospitalizations are down after spiking several weeks ago. All non-essential businesses are allowed to remain open. Bars & restaurants are can stay open until 11:00 PM with 50% capacity. Gyms, fitness centers, places of worship at 50% capacity. No statewide mask mandate but Oklahoma City and some of the surrounding municipalities do have mask mandates in effect.

So, the soft restrictions in OK are reasonable and cases & hospitalizations are also declining. I think the measures in Colorado are unreasonable but as you pointed out, cases & hospitalizations are, in fact, going down.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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I'm sure that number for CA will go up if things are as bad as say there are. And supposedly it's catastrophic there:


How about NY? They have basically 2x the mortality per capita compared to Florida (183 - 92). And NY has never really opened up much keeping many business restrictions in place since last spring. Their cases are increasing significantly and they have a 25% higher hospitalization rate per capita than Florida.


Yes...that's true; and it's a pleasant surprise. Currently, we're at a "Level Red" status which entails closing all non-essential businesses for indoor service except gyms & fitness centers can remain open at 10% capacity. Places of worship are allowed 25% capacity and a metro-wide 10:00 PM curfew is still in effect. "Level Purple" would be a complete shutdown for everything but essential businesses.

If the trend continues it would appear these restrictions are working while keeping gyms/fitness centers & places of worship open. However, there are some contradictions when you examine some other states and see conflicting trends. For example, cases & hospitalizations are declining significantly in South Dakota. There's never been any lockdowns, restrictions, mask mandates or anything like that (and of course Noem has been crucified by the MSM):


Oklahoma is another state that I have been following. Currently, their cases & hospitalizations are down after spiking several weeks ago. All non-essential businesses are allowed to remain open. Bars & restaurants are can stay open until 11:00 PM with 50% capacity. Gyms, fitness centers, places of worship at 50% capacity. No statewide mask mandate but Oklahoma City and some of the surrounding municipalities do have mask mandates in effect.

So, the mild restrictions in OK are reasonable and cases & hospitalizations are also declining. I think the measures in Colorado are unreasonable but as you pointed out, cases & hospitalizations are, in fact, going down.
Cali had 42,000 new cases just yesterday. Our positivity is at 10.5% currently.
 
Hey, New York: why doesn't anyone there know these apparently relevant facts?
Hey, Tom Woods, why are you so ignorant of these relevant facts:

Since the end of May:

NY cases/deaths: 433,526/5198
FL cases/deaths: 1,077,916/17,551

It would be so nice if these ignorant idiots began each of their ignorant, idiotic posts with the disclaimer: I really, really want the economy to open, and to that end, i will twist every scientific fact to make it appear that that is the way to go. I won't acknowledge that NY was the center of early seeding of cases from Europe, or that NYC has by far the highest population density in the country, the main factors that drove NY's early and thus cumulative cases. Or that the CFR was much higher in April than it is now, driving the cumulative deaths. Or that it is much colder in NY than FL now, and that cold weather forces people indoors where the virus spreads more. And of course, I will repeat ad nauseum the thoroughly rebutted myth that transfers of hospital patients to nursing homes caused the deaths there.

Meanwhile, as I predicted, the daily cases are plateauing. Yesterday was the first day in two weeks in which the seven day moving average was lower (though just barely) than the previous day.
 
Even at its worst, S. Korea is far better than the U.S. at its best. One thousand new positives a day in SK is equivalent to about 6500 in the U.S. population. The last time the U.S. had fewer than 6500 cases in a day was March 22. The U.S. has not recorded less than 19,000 cases--about three times that number of 6500--since March 26.

You may have been reading about all the cases that have resulted from lax procedures at the White House, and thinking at least no one has had a really bad case. The head of the WH Security office was in the hospital for several months, and--I hadn't heard this before as a possible effect--had to have his lower leg amputated. He has run up huge hospital bills, and a. friend actually started a GoFundMe fund for him.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OawHa1w0-P4


 
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On the other hand, S-Korea apparently has very little hospital capacity:

Only three unoccupied critical care beds left in Seoul, a city of 26 million people

South Korea’s highest priority is securing more hospital beds to handle a record surge in coronavirus cases and blunt a corresponding spike in deaths, the country’s prime minister said on Wednesday.
The Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) reported 1,078 new coronavirus cases as of midnight Tuesday, the highest since the start of the pandemic.
The latest number came three days after the daily tally topped 1,000 for the first time since South Korea confirmed its first coronavirus infection in January.
The KDCA also reported 12 more deaths, the second day of double-digit deaths after a record 13 the day before in a country that had kept overall cases and deaths relatively low through aggressive tracing and testing.
The number of severe cases has more than doubled over the past two weeks to hit a record high of 226 on Wednesday.
There were only three critical care beds left in the greater Seoul area with a nearly 26 million population, officials said.
 
Chris, here is what is going to happen January 21st..the federal government is going to finally call on powers of the defense production act to increase PPE distribution and build stockpile.
@$250+ million dollars spent on Covid education and PSA campaign. Native American and Spanish speaking population will be targeted w media blitz on treatment and prevention strategies for most at risk.
Bipartisan legislation on rent and mortgage relief..state and local government relief. Legislation for corporate tax cut reform. Expansion of workman s comp benefits..
expansion of Vetrans Choice coverage to allow out of network care without referral until all VA hospitals can see @60% of patients without restrictions.
Increase in all programs for testing and contact tracing.
Review of travel restrictions on those wishing to come to the US.
@25% increase in FDA emergency funding.
It looks like Warp Speed will stay in place for dozens of projects.
Increase in state funding for National guard, for deployment of medical equipment and personnel..
It looks like Biden will increase to some degree the military medical overflow..Trump has deployed military doctors and nurses very effectively and it looks like Biden wants to increase or maintain the capability..
At first glance,it looks like Biden is in a hurry to overcome what he views as Trump's obvious mistakes. It looks like PPE and targeted messaging is not a simple first steps
Don't know where he will get money to throw towards states for National guard or where money will come from to rapidly deploy hundreds of military medical teams from state to state..
A huge part of Biden's grand plans rely on Georgia
 
Meanwhile in the country in the middle of the Europe there were 3565 positives from PCR and 4397 from Ag tests yesterday with 10 times less citizens. Government slept at least 6 weeks and now they presented lockdown and lot of people will not respect it because it has more "holes" than swiss cheese. I dont understand that people. With mass testing there is not literrally anybody who would not know someone with Covid. I know personally at least 8 mild cases from top of my head ,1 severe case with good end and one death of 88 year woman from my distant family.
 
Meanwhile in the country in the middle of the Europe there were 3565 positives from PCR and 4397 from Ag tests yesterday with 10 times less citizens. Government slept at least 6 weeks and now they presented lockdown and lot of people will not respect it because it has more "holes" than swiss cheese. I dont understand that people. With mass testing there is not literrally anybody who would not know someone with Covid. I know personally at least 8 mild cases from top of my head ,1 severe case with good end and one death of 88 year woman from my distant family.
Maybe it is different in Europe, but in much of the U.S. I think this has only changed rather recently with the latest surge. Before that it was like watching documentaries about asteroid impacts destroying humanity: Interesting but not all that relevant to your everyday life. For many it has only been the last month or so where they started to see people they know test positive. Even so, deaths are still rare so it is, "So and so tested positive, no hospitalization, and a couple weeks later they are clear." It makes the whole thing rather abstract for many people.
 
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Maybe it is different in Europe, but in much of the U.S. I think this has only changed rather recently with the latest surge. Before that it was like watching documentaries about asteroid impacts destroying humanity: Interesting but not all that relevant to your everyday life. For many it has only been the last month or so where they started to see people they know test positive. Even so, deaths are still rare so it is, "So and so tested positive, no hospitalization, and a couple weeks later they are clear." It makes the whole thing rather abstract for many people.
It is exactly same here. Especially second part. " Friend of mine lost smell and taste and was good after week" is the most common argument I hear. "It is winter people are more in hospitals" is other. I thought I have reasonable friends. Hoaxers and co is other category.
 

Chris Gadsden

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Idiot Macron is covid positive.

Meanwhile San Diego County judge rules strip clubs and restaurant can be open. Turns out our Ruler’s rules overreach.

In a nine-page ruling, Judge Joel R. Wohlfeil ruled that California and San Diego County haven't provided sufficient evidence tying the spread of COVID-19 or lack of ICU bed capacity to adult entertainment. It also applies to "San Diego County businesses with restaurant service."

In response to the ruling in favor of Cheetah's Gentlemen's Club and Pacers Showgirls International, County Supervisor Jim Desmond tweeted that the county would not enforce restaurant closures, according to CBS8.
 
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Idiot Macron is covid positive.

Meanwhile San Diego County judge rules strip clubs and restaurant can be open. Turns out our Ruler’s rules overreach.

In a nine-page ruling, Judge Joel R. Wohlfeil ruled that California and San Diego County haven't provided sufficient evidence tying the spread of COVID-19 or lack of ICU bed capacity to adult entertainment. It also applies to "San Diego County businesses with restaurant service."

In response to the ruling in favor of Cheetah's Gentlemen's Club and Pacers Showgirls International, County Supervisor Jim Desmond tweeted that the county would not enforce restaurant closures, according to CBS8.
I am not too worried. Men usually keep their distance from the girls after they see the signs saying silicone is known by the state of California to cause cancer and birth defects.
 
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Meanwhile a super spreader who escaped from voluntary quarantine has created havoc in Sydney Australia. The Australian state of New South Wales (NSW) has been the gold standard since an outbreak from a cruise ship in March was traced and controlled. Now contact tracers are in overdrive attempting to bring the handful of mystery cases under control before Christmas.

The weakness in NSW, like all of Australia, is that quarantine is voluntary and not in a controlled location under the authority of health workers. But I am not sure what can be employed in China can work in Australia? Australia cleaned up the initial out break in March with the exception of the state of Victoria but this will be a big test of NSW.

I really hope they can trace who this person was so they are dealt with and made an example of. This will be very interesting to follow.

COVID-19 Sydney cluster: New venues listed as Northern Beaches cluster explodes (news.com.au)
 
How can a person escape from voluntary quarantine.Its got me beat. This is a strange post which makes little sense based on available evidence. Bear in mind it is currently a cluster of 17. Think you need to take a Bex and lie down.
 
I have this vision of mobs of angry aussies carrying torches and pitchforks as they comb the city for the guy.

On the plus side, Australia is out of recession, which gives me hope that economic recovery will be a lot faster than some believe. The pent up demand for many things has to be tremendous, especially since the savings rate in the U.S. has gone up and you just know given the chance people will blow it on stuff they don't need.
 
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How can a person escape from voluntary quarantine.Its got me beat. This is a strange post which makes little sense based on available evidence. Bear in mind it is currently a cluster of 17. Think you need to take a Bex and lie down.
Er well it means you ignore instructions to isolate then go to the shops, local hardware stores where there are lots of people doing Christmas shopping at this time of year - very simple really. Australia has already proven on multiple occasions since March you can get control over this virus without holding peoples' hands, but this proves we can never be complacent. I am aware of Chinese restaurant owners in Xinxiang who would like this to be over. So don't think I am ignorant.

As for relaxing, maybe you can tell that to all the healthy but paranoid people now lining up in queues to get tested - likely that is the only place they will catch the virus. Or what about nervous business people who were beginning to recover but now face lockdowns. I actually live in the area where this started. Most of us get on with life and take simple precautions when in public.

I was actually thinking of you when I posted. Victoria's disaster started similarly. But NSW has far superior contact tracing. It will be an interesting case study of systems. Lets see but perhaps you should do a casual search on what is being reported this side of the world - yeh I know little village.

ps - Brodeal always superior at mixing humor with a serious point. ;)
 
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On the plus side, Australia is out of recession, which gives me hope that economic recovery will be a lot faster than some believe. The pent up demand for many things has to be tremendous, especially since the savings rate in the U.S. has gone up and you just know given the chance people will blow it on stuff they don't need.
My worry is that that pent up demand may not be released quickly enough. Even with vaccines, the return to normality is likely to be gradual. How many smaller businesses won't be able to stay afloat during those times, and how many will just be eaten up by big companies that are better equipped to soak up losses? The structural damage could go pretty deep.
 
I have this vision of mobs of angry aussies carrying torches and pitchforks as they comb the city for the guy.

On the plus side, Australia is out of recession, which gives me hope that economic recovery will be a lot faster than some believe. The pent up demand for many things has to be tremendous, especially since the savings rate in the U.S. has gone up and you just know given the chance people will blow it on stuff they don't need.
Er no torches..........the naked flame types anyway, It's bushfire season again.........hope it's much better than the last one ! Although one illegal camp fire just made a mess of Fraser Island.

As for the recession, politicians are quick to make that call when it suits them, going into one and out of one it seems, but the average person probably doesn't feel much different household expense wise at the moment and the unemployment rate is still 7% but food prices didn't rise much. Just wondering what will be the next Australian product to have Chinese tarrifs applied to it. They have covered most of the big ones already..............
 
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LOL, at his recent state of the union address, Putin was asked if he had been vaccinated with Sputnik V, the Russian-developed vaccine, that has been criticized for being rushed to approval without sufficient testing. Putin's answer was telling:

"The vaccines that are being circulated among the general population today are intended for people in a certain age group, and the vaccines have not yet reached people like me," said Putin.

"I'm a law-abiding citizen in that matter, I listen to the recommendations of our specialists and so far haven't taken it. But I will do it as soon as it becomes a possibility."
Right, Putin is treated just like any other citizen.

The Russians do admit the vaccine is only recommended for people up to 60, and Putin is 68, but AFAIK, the recommendation is only based on likely efficacy, not safety concerns. So there would be nothing to lose for someone older than 60 taking it. If there is, if there is any question about the safety of the vaccine for older people, then the vaccine is near useless, because almost all deaths and hospitalizations of course occur in people older than 60. Vaccinating younger people might reduce the spread of the virus to older people, but again, AFAIK, Russia has produced no data demonstrating this. Since the more thoroughly tested Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have no data on this, it would be extremely unlikely that Sputnk V would, either.


Jagar, what does BTW refer to? The numbers in the third column are not the product of the numbers in the first two columns (price/dose x number of doses). Why not?
 
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LOL, at his recent state of the union address, Putin was asked if he had been vaccinated with Sputnik V, the Russian-developed vaccine, that has been criticized for being rushed to approval without sufficient testing. Putin's answer was telling:



Right, Putin is treated just like any other citizen.

The Russians do admit the vaccine is only recommended for people up to 60, and Putin is 68, but AFAIK, the recommendation is only based on likely efficacy, not safety concerns. So there would be nothing to lose for someone older than 60 taking it. If there is, then the vaccine is near useless, because almost all deaths and hospitalizations of course occur in people older than 60. Vaccinating younger people might reduce the spread of the virus to older people, but again, AFAIK, Russia has produced no data demonstrating this. Since the more thoroughly Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have no data on this, it would extremely unlikely that Sputnk V would, either.

Russia and China have the best comedy these days some of it even puts Trump in the shadows. No wonder some people think that satire is currently dead ................
 
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Tucker Carlson going full anti-vaxx on his show tonight under the guise of 'just asking questions'. You know the frozen fishstick heir is going to be first in line to get his shot, so the effort is really cynical af. But it furthers my belief that there is no chance in he11 that we hit 60%.
 
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