Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Fascinating story:

"India Covid rates plummet, experts struggle to find explanation."


India has 1/10 the death rate of the U.S. while 1/5 of the country's 1.3 Billion live below the national poverty line. They have one of the poorest public healthcare systems in the world and yet they have one of the lowest deaths (114 deaths per one million population).
 
Distribution was always going to be inequitable. The production issues for a number of the vaccine makers has made this issue even more obvious. The US is going to announce a further purchase of 100m doses of the J&J vaccine. At this stage they have bought much more than can ever be used. I doubt that the 300m doses purchased from AZ are intended to be used here for example. Alaska is the first state to open vaccination to everyone over 16. Much of these purchases will be destined for overseas aid once domestic demand falters.

Just in time for St Patrick's day, MD has now lifted almost all restrictions on dining. Masks are still required.
I'll add one more thing to this. I heard (think it was on CNBC but may have been elsewhere) that Novavax will get approved in the US before AZ will. At this point I don't think the US will use any of the AZ even if it eventually gets approved here. At this point may as well release AZ to ship their vaccine where ever they wish to.

As for J&J I do think the US needs the extra doses of it as it appears (at least anecdotally) that some people who are vaccine hesitant appear more willing to take that one due to it being 1 dose.

I did hear about Alaska opening vaccination up to anyone 16 and over. My guess is that W. VA will be the next state to do that as they have done a very good job with their vaccine roll out. Where I live in coastal NC we are starting to get more vaccine here (almost exclusively Moderna). Here the Dept of Health is able to do vaccines almost daily, but we're also getting two or three 1 day clinics per month for first doses and the same for second doses. (Military gets vaccinated on base).

Good news for my husband, he had sent a message to his doctors at UNC Health to see if he can get vaccinated or not and he got information back from them yesterday telling him yes and to try to get an appointment as soon as possible. Now he's decided due to the health issues he's still suffering from he wants to ensure his appointment is either in the UNC health facilities or Duke health facilities (preferably at one of the two hospitals) instead of getting it at a pharmacy like I did and like my mom and sister did.
 
I'll add one more thing to this. I heard (think it was on CNBC but may have been elsewhere) that Novavax will get approved in the US before AZ will. At this point I don't think the US will use any of the AZ even if it eventually gets approved here. At this point may as well release AZ to ship their vaccine where ever they wish to.

As for J&J I do think the US needs the extra doses of it as it appears (at least anecdotally) that some people who are vaccine hesitant appear more willing to take that one due to it being 1 dose.
Wow, that is interesting. I did not know that.

J&J are also doing a trial with younger children, so there is some thought that this purchase may be deployed for that around September. We already have enough orders of the mRNA ones to vaccinate all adults.

Good to hear the news about your husband.
 
Wow, that is interesting. I did not know that.

J&J are also doing a trial with younger children, so there is some thought that this purchase may be deployed for that around September. We already have enough orders of the mRNA ones to vaccinate all adults.

Good to hear the news about your husband.
When I heard it, I was a little surprised. The FDA must not be happy with how AZ did their trials outside the US is all I can figure. It may also have to do with how AZ released info originally combined with an already decent sized vaccine hesitant population that the FDA may not want to actually deal with that combination?

Didn't know, but not surprised J&J is doing a trial with younger children. I knew about Pfizer and Moderna doing one each currently for children 12 and up.

Thanks.
 
Fascinating story:

"India Covid rates plummet, experts struggle to find explanation."


India has 1/10 the death rate of the U.S. while 1/5 of the country's 1.3 Billion live below the national poverty line. They have one of the poorest public healthcare systems in the world and yet they have one of the lowest deaths (114 deaths per one million population).
Diet and much lower morbid obesity rate?
 
Example of why I'm really starting to get annoyed with The Guardian below. In all their AstraZeneca stories, they feel the need to defend this company. Why is that? Why add the second sentence, are you AZ's PR bureau?

Denmark temporarily stops administering Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine

Denmark has temporary stopped usage of the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine after several cases of blood clots among vaccinated people.
The vaccine has been found to be safe and effective in all adults by UK and international authorities and is widely in use across the world.
 
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Example of why I'm really starting to get annoyed with The Guardian below. In all their AstraZeneca stories, they feel the need to defend this company. Why is that? Why add the second paragraph, are you AZ's PR bureau?

Denmark temporarily stops administering Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine

Denmark has temporary stopped usage of the Oxford/AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine after several cases of blood clots among vaccinated people.
The vaccine has been found to be safe and effective in all adults by UK and international authorities and is widely in use across the world.
Interesting. I read this before but I still dont know important information if this is because austrian cases of blood clots or some cases were in Denmark.
 
Covid can cause problems with blood cloths, so it's doesn't seem unreasonable to me that (some) vaccines may also cause some of that - though much less and/or in much less cases than the virus itself. There are known genetic diseases where you are at higher risk of developing blood cloths, but not everyone knows they have that (it can for example also make hormonal anti-conception risky).
 
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Before that news, the anti-vaxxers were more concerned with vaccinations preventing clotting. Not surprisingly, that story is at the top of Alex Berenson's twitter feed this morning.
As of March 9, “22 cases of thromboembolic events had been reported among the 3 million people vaccinated with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca in the European Economic Area,” the EMA said.
That level of adverse effect would not be picked up in large clinical trials. Overall, it seems like it is just a pause as the regulators do their due diligence and the vaccinations will eventually continue.

This spy novelist is the science expert for a cable news channel. Really normal stuff. BTW, the antibody titers from vaccination are much higher than natural infection, largely due to the boosting effect of a second shot, so Berenson is FOS about that part. Though you could tell he had no clue because it was a 'technical question' which is beyond his pay grade, but had to reflexively disagree with Osterholm because that is what was expected of him. Need to agree with the narrative to keep the bookings. Dude has a book to sell.
View: https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1370007122960867329
 
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Here is good evidence for needing only a single dose of vaccine if you were already infected. It also shows that people who were infected have higher levels of symptoms to the vaccines (i.e. reactogenecity), which I had alluded to earlier this week. Finally, it also shows that vaccines give you higher titers than natural infection. Though that latter part has been demonstrated more conclusively elsewhere.

An important question is arising as COVID-19 vaccines are getting rolled out: Should individuals who already had a SARS-CoV-2 infection receive one or two shots of the currently authorized mRNA vaccines. In this short report, we show that the antibody response to the first vaccine dose in individuals with pre-existing immunity is equal to or even exceeds the titers found in naïve individuals after the second dose. We also show that the reactogenicity is significantly higher in individuals who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the past. Changing the policy to give these individuals only one dose of vaccine would not negatively impact on their antibody titers, spare them from unnecessary pain and free up many urgently needed vaccine doses.
 
Before that news, the anti-vaxxers were more concerned with vaccinations preventing clotting. Not surprisingly, that story is at the top of Alex Berenson's twitter feed this morning.
That level of adverse effect would not be picked up in large clinical trials. Overall, it seems like it is just a pause as the regulators do their due diligence and the vaccinations will eventually continue.

This spy novelist is the science expert for a cable news channel. Really normal stuff. BTW, the antibody titers from vaccination are much higher than natural infection, largely due to the boosting effect of a second shot, so Berenson is FOS about that part. Though you could tell he had no clue because it was a 'technical question' which is beyond his pay grade, but had to reflexively disagree with Osterholm because that is what was expected of him. Need to agree with the narrative to keep the bookings. Dude has a book to sell.
View: https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1370007122960867329
"COVID has been the perfect tool for dishonest leaders to remake society"

I have so many comments about that, but I will resist due to the no politics rule.
 
"COVID has been the perfect tool for dishonest leaders to remake society"

I have so many comments about that, but I will resist due to the no politics rule.
The way I'm reading this whole situation is - you guys who believe in the vaccines go ahead and do your stuff, while the anti-vaxxers wait around and hope for herd immunity.

I will not apologize for wanting the vaccine, politics should have never had anything to do with this to begin with.
 
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"COVID has been the perfect tool for dishonest leaders to remake society"

I have so many comments about that, but I will resist due to the no politics rule.
It has provided an opportunity like a Great War for military and political opportunists. Add the absolutely chaotic social media channels to exploit and people with no ideology, ethics or moral balance can make themselves into something that can be marketed. It's like the Kardashian's of World leadership.
 
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This just keeps getting better.
AstraZeneca now announced that they would only be able to deliver 70 million vaccines to the EU in Q2, instead of 180 million. In Q1, they delivered 30 million instead of a promised 100 million. Meanwhile, deliveries to the UK are completely unaffected. The contract with the EU was signed one day before that with the UK, by the way.

What a farce, this company.
 
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So the USA is effectively sitting on millions of vaccines they cannot use, while they also prevent export of all other vaccines. Nice one. Say, Joey Biden, you were not happy with the EU wanting to sign a trade deal with China? Maybe you want to show why the US is a much better partner for us?
 
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That solves one mystery. There has been speculation but I don't think there has been confirmation that there are stockpiles of AZ vaccines here. I would be really curious what the FDA application timeline looks like. Before he was fired from OWS, Slauoi mentioned April, but that seems unlikely at this stage given what Koronin mentioned the other day. I guess I can see the bureaucratic logic of holding these doses as 'insurance', but they should unquestionably be shipped to countries who have already approved the vaccine. Then replace AZ capacity with J&J as suggested in the article and call it a day.

ETA. It makes me wonder if AZ is holding back their application because they know that they have zero capability to supply 300m doses as they promised. And that only comes due if they are approved. What it leaves is a standoff. The govt feels reticent to ship vaccines while millions need them and AZ desperately need those doses to fulfill other commitments. Neither want to budge.
 
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