Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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roundabout said:
Please don't quote tabloids

www.vanityfair.com

“We Are Hoarding”: Why the U.S. Still Can’t Donate COVID-19 Vaccines to Countries in Need

Thanks to America First–style contracts negotiated by the Trump administration and an alarming uptick in domestic cases, the urgent work of planning to vaccinate the rest of the world is stuck in limbo.
www.vanityfair.com www.vanityfair.com
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The lead-off is questionable, so without verifying elsewhere, I'm left wondering how much of the rest is not exactly factual.

Jag, I'm curious why you gave this a thumbs up? It doesn't support the assertion that you have been making for a while now.
 
D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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Mayomaniac said:
With many of the vulnerable people (hopefully) already vaccinated the hospitalisation rate and the number of people in intensive care are probably better indicators than just the rise of cases. I know that the rise of cases usually only has a real impact on those numbers around 2 weeks later, but it would be interesting to see if the pressure on the healthcare system is still rising despite the vaccinations.
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Those are good points.

Here in Maryland, the number of hospitalizations has risen from 765 to 1245 since the middle of March when restaurant restrictions were severely curtailed. The ICU numbers have increased from 195 to 286. The winter peak was 1952 and 456, so they are not as strained as before, and I doubt that they will be. And that has really been the unspoken rationale for the relaxing of restrictions. If hospitals have capacity, there will be no rollbacks to the opening.

Michigan is the worst current outbreak right now and I was reading that 30% of nursing home people still aren't vaccinated and half of the nursing home workers aren't. This is a recipe for disaster before even considering that a lot of old people who are vaccinated will not make antibodies and are still pretty vulnerable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1379765099733344256
View: https://twitter.com/ChadLivengood/status/1379765099733344256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1379777123045552128%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es3_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.crainsdetroit.com%2Fcoronavirus%2Fmichigan-adds-8015-new-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-spike-across-state
 
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Nomad

Apr 20, 2016
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Not good for the people eagerly waiting for their vaccine.

"Colorado mass vaccination site paused after multiple adverse reactions to J&J COVID-19 vaccine."

www.koaa.com

Colorado mass vaccination site paused after multiple adverse reactions to J&J COVID-19 vaccine

Operations at a mass vaccination site in Colorado have been put on pause after multiple adverse reactions to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine Wednesday, according to a spokesperson for Centura Health who is running the event.
www.koaa.com www.koaa.com



 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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Nomad said:
Not good for the people eagerly waiting for their vaccine.

"Colorado mass vaccination site paused after multiple adverse reactions to J&J COVID-19 vaccine."

www.koaa.com

Colorado mass vaccination site paused after multiple adverse reactions to J&J COVID-19 vaccine

Operations at a mass vaccination site in Colorado have been put on pause after multiple adverse reactions to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine Wednesday, according to a spokesperson for Centura Health who is running the event.
www.koaa.com www.koaa.com
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Same thing happened here in NC this week.


The NC sites are resuming the use of the J&J vaccine today at the mass vaccination sites.

 
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jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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I was watching the local news while eating breakfast and the story was about a youth flag football league that was going to be cancelled because parents are not wearing masks on the sidelines. The mom that they interviewed the most had a lot of ignorant sound bites to share, but the comment that stuck out in my mind the most was what she opened with: "I grew up here, and our parents didn't wear masks at our games". :eek: I guess I must have forgotten about the pandemic when you were a kid mam.

I know that some might say well they're outside so maybe its OK to go without masks. If you saw the video of how many were standing shoulder to shoulder along the sidelines you might not feel that way.
 
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J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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djpbaltimore said:
Now that Pfizer has filed an application for an EUA for children 12 and up, the next flashpoint will be over mandatory vaccinations for schools.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1380623001146777605
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1380623001146777605
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I 've been fully vaccinated, and I'm still very cautious: haven't been to any public indoor space other than work and store. Worried? I guess I'd have to play semantics, but I'm not worried because I feel that vax + caution = pretty safe. But I am concerned at work sometimes so maybe I'm a bit worried? I hope that if I do get it, its mild because of vax and my relatively solid immune system overall. I would feel less worried if more people were also vaccinated.

I wonder if schools will require SARS-COV-2 vax. In Idaho they require some vax already, but there is also an exemption option.
IDHW Vax
IDHW Vax Exemption
 
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Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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jmdirt said:
I 've been fully vaccinated, and I'm still very cautious: haven't been to any public indoor space other than work and store. Worried? I guess I'd have to play semantics, but I'm not worried because I feel that vax + caution = pretty safe. But I am concerned at work sometimes so maybe I'm a bit worried? I hope that if I do get it, its mild because of vax and my relatively solid immune system overall. I would feel less worried if more people were also vaccinated.

I wonder if schools will require SARS-COV-2 vax. In Idaho they require some vax already, but there is also an exemption option.
IDHW Vax
IDHW Vax Exemption
Click to expand...


I suspect public schools can't require the vax until it's got full FDA approval. That isn't going to happen before the school year starts again in the fall. Pfizer is hoping to submit everything for full approval later this spring, but it's unlikely they FDA will made a decision until the end of the year if not beginning of next year on full approval. On the other hand, I do expect Pfizer to get an EUA for kids 12 and up within the next month or two.
 
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jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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Koronin said:
I suspect public schools can't require the vax until it's got full FDA approval. That isn't going to happen before the school year starts again in the fall. Pfizer is hoping to submit everything for full approval later this spring, but it's unlikely they FDA will made a decision until the end of the year if not beginning of next year on full approval. On the other hand, I do expect Pfizer to get an EUA for kids 12 and up within the next month or two.
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You could be correct. One of the prominent epidemiologists who is on the national news frequently said that the FDA "full approval" for adults could happen this summer (I think that's what he said anyway). 6-16 will be at least six month later than that so maybe early next year?
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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jmdirt said:
You could be correct. One of the prominent epidemiologists who is on the national news frequently said that the FDA "full approval" for adults could happen this summer (I think that's what he said anyway). 6-16 will be at least six month later than that so maybe early next year?
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Interesting as Pfizer doesn't expect it until late fall at the soonest, even though they plan on having all the information submitted for it either this month or next month.

Now they have applied for the 12-16 age group for an UAE and are in the trial for the next age groups.
 
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jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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Koronin said:
Interesting as Pfizer doesn't expect it until late fall at the soonest, even though they plan on having all the information submitted for it either this month or next month.

Now they have applied for the 12-16 age group for an UAE and are in the trial for the next age groups.
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Well, crappola, I can't find the interview. My understanding is that the main difference between a EUA and full (I think he said 'Biologic') approval, is the amount of data accumulated, two months for EUA, and six months for full, but there might also be an amount tied to that, that won't be an issue because so many people are getting the vaccines. I thought that he said the FDA process could take 90 days to six months. If Pfizer and Moderna submit in May, it could be as soon as August for adults?

I'm going to go for a ride, but I will search a little more this evening. Maybe dj can clarify this for us a bit?

EDIT: one interesting thing that I read while looking for the interview, was that once Pfizer and Modena gain full approval, no other vaccines can apply for EUA.
 
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Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
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jmdirt said:
Well, crappola, I can't find the interview. My understanding is that the main difference between a EUA and full (I think he said 'Biologic') approval, is the amount of data accumulated, two months for EUA, and six months for full, but there might also be an amount tied to that, that won't be an issue because so many people are getting the vaccines. I thought that he said the FDA process could take 90 days to six months. If Pfizer and Moderna submit in May, it could be as soon as August for adults?

I'm going to go for a ride, but I will search a little more this evening. Maybe dj can clarify this for us a bit?

EDIT: one interesting thing that I read while looking for the interview, was that once Pfizer and Modena gain full approval, no other vaccines can apply for EUA.
Click to expand...


I suspect it may just be Pfizer expecting the review process to take closer to the 6 months.
 
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J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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jmdirt said:
Well, crappola, I can't find the interview. My understanding is that the main difference between a EUA and full (I think he said 'Biologic') approval, is the amount of data accumulated, two months for EUA, and six months for full, but there might also be an amount tied to that, that won't be an issue because so many people are getting the vaccines. I thought that he said the FDA process could take 90 days to six months. If Pfizer and Moderna submit in May, it could be as soon as August for adults?

I'm going to go for a ride, but I will search a little more this evening. Maybe dj can clarify this for us a bit?

EDIT: one interesting thing that I read while looking for the interview, was that once Pfizer and Modena gain full approval, no other vaccines can apply for EUA.
Click to expand...
This is absolutely profanity bizarre! I have Googled my self cross eyed trying to find the interview, and have glanced at every COVID related interview from this week, and nothing. Maybe I dreamed it, but I really feel like I saw it. The only other possibility is that I heard it on the radio during my commute.
 
D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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The next step is applying for a BLA, which is what you are probably talking about because the b stands for biologic. The Pfizer application for that is imminent, but the review process is not something that anyone can say for certain. Like with many parts to this, the regulators make the rules so they can approve it quick or take the rest of the year. That is why people are hearing vastly different timelines because there are a lot of educated guesses about what is going to happen. I expect the EUA for 12+ will be rapid, no clue on the BLA timing.
 
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