Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

Page 276 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
To get a visa for China, you currently need to be inoculated with a Chinese vaccine. Which is of course not possible for almost any 'Western' nation. For some reason, they haven't greenlighted other vaccines yet.

Meanwhile, Bahrein has decided to offer Pfizer/BioNTech for third shots after two Sinopharm vaccinations. I think that the mRNA vaccines are clearly the future.
 
Reactions: jmdirt and Koronin
Jul 15, 2016
29
52
2,680
To get a visa for China, you currently need to be inoculated with a Chinese vaccine. Which is of course not possible for almost any 'Western' nation. For some reason, they haven't greenlighted other vaccines yet.

Meanwhile, Bahrein has decided to offer Pfizer/BioNTech for third shots after two Sinopharm vaccinations. I think that the mRNA vaccines are clearly the future.
Same as most other western countries. The European Medicine Agency is still yet to approve the SInopharm/Sinovac shots, which is still currently under review, meaning currently non-EU citizens can't travel to the bloc unless they are immunized by an EMA-approved vaccine.
COVID-19 vaccines: authorised | European Medicines Agency (europa.eu)
Same case for Pfizer/Moderna vaccines in China. In fact: "Pfizer-BioNTech shot is likely to be approved mid-year."
When It Comes to a Travel Restart All Vaccines Are Not Equal (msn.com)
 
Alpha variant which was already way more serious than original strain and replaced other mutations in lot of countries looks like harmless cold to delta variant. I am curious when this virus will stop improving his skills. It must have some ceiling, right? I already feel sorry for non vaccinated individuals. Anyway, in countries with low vaccination rates the whole society will suffer again. :mad: it is matter of time when this will be all over the EU just like alpha variant was.
 
It's pretty amazing that this Indian variant is even more contagious, because I thought the Kent variant was already supposed to be at the limit of what the virus should be capable of. What is the base R now (without any measures)? It must be about 5-6 perhaps, while seasonal influenza is only about 1.5.
 
It also suggests the lab leak theory people who claim that the virus was already perfectly adapted to human spread don't really know what they are talking about.

I guess the good news is the virus is less able to explore receptor solutions to evade antibody responses. E484K seems like it's best shot and that seems to be covered by full vaccination.
 
What several of us predicted 2-3 months ago is happening: vaccinations in the US are slowing down too early.

Meanwhile, enthusiasm about vaccination seems to markedly higher here, in Belgium. Over 160,000 shots/day were administered yesterday and the day before (population 11.5 million), and the speed is still limited by the availability of the vaccines. I will get my first shot mid-June (Pfizer-BioNTech) - very happy that it's finally my turn, and very happy with the brand.
 
Alpha variant which was already way more serious than original strain and replaced other mutations in lot of countries looks like harmless cold to delta variant. I am curious when this virus will stop improving his skills. It must have some ceiling, right? I already feel sorry for non vaccinated individuals. Anyway, in countries with low vaccination rates the whole society will suffer again. :mad: it is matter of time when this will be all over the EU just like alpha variant was.
I've read that Pfizer and Moderna are working on boosters to specifically address the Delta variant as they are worried about that one. They expect the booster to be ready by all.
 
Reactions: jmdirt and Keram
dj answers this below.

I had a discussion with a colleague about this a while back because it wasn't OK to call the original the China virus, but its been OK to call the variants by the name of where they were first discovered/most prevalent. I'm not the correctness approval king, but using location names seems OK to me. Kind of like French Poodle or German Shepard. The problem is that idiots will use that as a reason to harass people who look like they might be from that location. B.1.1.617.6 doesn't mean much, but Texas variant at least tells me where it is, and then other conclusions can be drawn from data in that location.
I've been off the www for five or so days, but I did read that the WHO recommended calling the variants by their Greek Alphabet designation. That's good I guess, but it doesn't tell people much so if they check into it even a little they will know the location. Granted, this will reduce the ignorant asshats from targeting people because most of them won't bother doing the research. But, the media will likely do the research for them: "the Delta variant from India...".
 
Flanders now expects to surpass the threshold of '70% of the adult population having received a first shot' within two weeks. Together with the nice weather we've been having the past 10 days, this should further lower cases and especially hospitalizations, even though all sorts of restrictions have been eased. By August, music festivals with 75,000 people will be allowed.

Now all we have to do is keep the British out long enough.
After they introduced 'alpha', we don't want them to do the same for 'delta'.
Brexit means Brexit - hear, hear.
 
Flanders now expects to surpass the threshold of '70% of the adult population having received a first shot' within two weeks. Together with the nice weather we've been having the past 10 days, this should further lower cases and especially hospitalizations, even though all sorts of restrictions have been eased. By August, music festivals with 75,000 people will be allowed.

Now all we have to do is keep the British out long enough.
After they introduced 'alpha', we don't want them to do the same for 'delta'.
Brexit means Brexit - hear, hear.
Honestly I don't see a way of keeping the variants out.
At least in Germany Delta is already there. And if it's here and the borders are open I doubt you will keep it out of Belgium.
I suppose we will have mass events in Germany in early fall again as well, but I don't like it very much. While it's a good thing to open shops and cultural events in general again, I think we could do without events with more than 5,000 people a little longer, they aren't necessary for life and after we practically emptied all pockets that won't be more than a drop, financially. I mean, festivals, phew... It there was one, only one thing, I would forbid in a pandemic, it's festivals, however nice they are... (Okay, rock concerts in closed halls are worse, but I can't think of much else.)
 
Reactions: jmdirt
I got my first shot Astra Zeneca areound two weeks ago, with moderate side effects. No fever or so, but some pain in the arm for a couple of days, a little headache, and super tired the day after. Think I went to bed at 9 or so.

It's probably not the perfect vaccine, especially against the variants, but there was a chance to get it now, so I grabbed it. Now I'm "in the system" at least, and may get something else for the boost in August anyway, I guess. As far as I read, the Vector+MRNA combination seems to work fairly well, and I don't the EU ordered any more AZ
 
I got my first shot Astra Zeneca areound two weeks ago, with moderate side effects. No fever or so, but some pain in the arm for a couple of days, a little headache, and super tired the day after. Think I went to bed at 9 or so.

It's probably not the perfect vaccine, especially against the variants, but there was a chance to get it now, so I grabbed it. Now I'm "in the system" at least, and may get something else for the boost in August anyway, I guess. As far as I read, the Vector+MRNA combination seems to work fairly well, and I don't the EU ordered any more AZ
Oh that's good! Yeah, seems the combination works well.
I am too lazy to phone around or try to get one of the special appointments... I am still on the waiting list of the vaccinations centers and eventually I suppose I will get an appointment...
 
Reactions: jmdirt and Koronin
Honestly I don't see a way of keeping the variants out.
At least in Germany Delta is already there. And if it's here and the borders are open I doubt you will keep it out of Belgium.
I suppose we will have mass events in Germany in early fall again as well, but I don't like it very much. While it's a good thing to open shops and cultural events in general again, I think we could do without events with more than 5,000 people a little longer, they aren't necessary for life and after we practically emptied all pockets that won't be more than a drop, financially. I mean, festivals, phew... It there was one, only one thing, I would forbid in a pandemic, it's festivals, however nice they are... (Okay, rock concerts in closed halls are worse, but I can't think of much else.)
Delta is here already, yes. About 1.5% of positive samples are that. But the thing is to slow it down enough so that the large majority are fully vaccinated before it inevitably becomes the dominant strain. The UK, with their substantial India-related population and a prime minister that was slow to restrict inbound flights because he wanted to seal a trade agreement, are the hotspot for this variant currently, so it's important not to have them spread it faster. Luckily, the UK themselves have adopted quite strict traveling rules, making trips abroad more difficult.
 
Oh that's good! Yeah, seems the combination works well.
I am too lazy to phone around or try to get one of the special appointments... I am still on the waiting list of the vaccinations centers and eventually I suppose I will get an appointment...
yeah, I used one of those (several) online platforms for "normal" medical appointments in the end. Some doctors are using those for vaccinations as well, and fortunately also one nearby.

One week after, the mosque around the corner offered J&J for all members and neighbourhood residents, so I could have gotten that as well, but didn't know in advance. No idea how else it's going to work out now with all priority groups abolished, though.

edit: Queuing up outside a mosque to get vaccinated must be as far away as it can get from the international assumption of how things are handled in Germany, by the way :D
 
Last edited:
Variants will be w us for years..compared to the last major pandemic,data sharing will probably be the key component to success..
in San Diego,this is a tiny personal data sample, I have personally witnessed the PA announcement of available vaccines at Rite Aid pharmacy and Wal Mart..both in far East county..but I am guessing that this is common..the VA has no appointment speed lines for first or second shots and 30 minutes would be a long time to complete everything including parking
in N.Baja miserable effort..there were long lines to vote Sunday,many vaccine sites have a poster out front saying when they expect vaccine delivery..a neighbor told me that they have given less than 10,000 shots in the clinic in 2 months
 
Reactions: jmdirt
I just ran into a friend on the trail that I haven't seen since March 2020. Not because of SC2, but because he has been battling prostate cancer...F! He is 'all clear' for now.

But, the reason that I'm posting in the SC2 thread is because his son in-law's father got SC2 in July, spent three weeks in the ICU (no ventilator though), but is still having pulmonary issues going on a year now. I know this guys too because he was an off road duathlete (Xterra type races). He is like most of us on here who have been lifelong fitness junkies, but now he still can't ride his bike, or run because he can't breath! He got it long before a vaccine was available obviously, but even after his ordeal, he is leading an anti-vax group (he is anti everything except for god).
 
Reactions: Ultrairon
Delta is here already, yes. About 1.5% of positive samples are that. But the thing is to slow it down enough so that the large majority are fully vaccinated before it inevitably becomes the dominant strain. The UK, with their substantial India-related population and a prime minister that was slow to restrict inbound flights because he wanted to seal a trade agreement, are the hotspot for this variant currently, so it's important not to have them spread it faster. Luckily, the UK themselves have adopted quite strict traveling rules, making trips abroad more difficult.
About this delta variant. It gets blamed for a lot where I live but I'm not seeing its fingerprint in any uptick in new cases around the world? For example:
  • Germany peaked around April 14 at 32k new cases. Now less than 2k / day.
  • US post thanksgiving peak in January at over 300k / day. Now under 10k / day continuing the downwards trend
  • France peak April 4 at 57k, now 6k/day continuing a steady decline.
  • Belgium shows no upwards trend.
  • UK has just started to rise but is a long way short of the 67,000 new cases recorded on January 8.
  • India has seen about a 75% fall in new cases since May 5 when over 400,000 new cases were recorded.
Of course we can never be complacent with this scourge but I think there is cause for cautious optimism. The vaccine is helping but still a long way to go.
 
Reactions: jmdirt
UK 7 day average of new cases is up 60% in 1 week.

And it's broadly in line with what the ONS says


I hope that they can contain the spread, but I wouldn't say that I am feeling very optimistic looking at how things are developing there.
 
About this delta variant. It gets blamed for a lot where I live but I'm not seeing its fingerprint in any uptick in new cases around the world? For example:
  • Germany peaked around April 14 at 32k new cases. Now less than 2k / day.
  • US post thanksgiving peak in January at over 300k / day. Now under 10k / day continuing the downwards trend
  • France peak April 4 at 57k, now 6k/day continuing a steady decline.
  • Belgium shows no upwards trend.
  • UK has just started to rise but is a long way short of the 67,000 new cases recorded on January 8.
  • India has seen about a 75% fall in new cases since May 5 when over 400,000 new cases were recorded.
Of course we can never be complacent with this scourge but I think there is cause for cautious optimism. The vaccine is helping but still a long way to go.
At least in the US, delta represents a pretty small minority of the sequenced viruses. What I think we will see over the summer might not be increased case counts due to delta, but an increase of the proportion of delta within the viral pool. By October, I think it will be the dominant strain in the US and that is when there will be issues in places with low vaccine uptake (i.e. rural and south). So, there is reason for optimism as you note, but delta really is a problematic variant for the future and bears watching. It already is picking up mutations associated with immune evasion.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS